973 resultados para probability models


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Three dimensional cellular models that mimic disease are being increasingly investigated and have opened an exciting new research area into understanding pathomechanisms. The advantage of 3D in vitro disease models is that they allow systematic and in-depth studies of physiological and pathophysiological processes with less costs and ethical concerns that have arisen with animal models. The purpose of the 3D approach is to allow crosstalk between cells and microenvironment, and with cues from the microenvironment, cells can assemble their niche similar to in vivo conditions. The use of 3D models for mimicking disease processes such as cancer, osteoarthritis etc., is only emerging and allows multidisciplinary teams consisting of tissue engineers, biologist biomaterial scientists and clinicians to work closely together. While in vitro systems require rigorous testing before they can be considered as replicates of the in vivo model, major steps have been made, suggesting that they will become powerful tools for studying physiological and pathophysiological processes. This paper aims to summarize some of the existing 3D models and proposes a novel 3D model of the eye structures that are involved in the most common cause of blindness in the Western World, namely age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

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Identifying the design features that impact construction is essential to developing cost effective and constructible designs. The similarity of building components is a critical design feature that affects method selection, productivity, and ultimately construction cost and schedule performance. However, there is limited understanding of what constitutes similarity in the design of building components and limited computer-based support to identify this feature in a building product model. This paper contributes a feature-based framework for representing and reasoning about component similarity that builds on ontological modelling, model-based reasoning and cluster analysis techniques. It describes the ontology we developed to characterize component similarity in terms of the component attributes, the direction, and the degree of variation. It also describes the generic reasoning process we formalized to identify component similarity in a standard product model based on practitioners' varied preferences. The generic reasoning process evaluates the geometric, topological, and symbolic similarities between components, creates groupings of similar components, and quantifies the degree of similarity. We implemented this reasoning process in a prototype cost estimating application, which creates and maintains cost estimates based on a building product model. Validation studies of the prototype system provide evidence that the framework is general and enables a more accurate and efficient cost estimating process.

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Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.

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Previous studies have enabled exact prediction of probabilities of identity-by-descent (IBD) in randommating populations for a few loci (up to four or so), with extension to more using approximate regression methods. Here we present a precise predictor of multiple-locus IBD using simple formulas based on exact results for two loci. In particular, the probability of non-IBD X ABC at each of ordered loci A, B, and C can be well approximated by XABC = XABXBC/XB and generalizes to X123. . .k = X12X23. . .Xk-1,k/ Xk-2, where X is the probability of non-IBD at each locus. Predictions from this chain rule are very precise with population bottlenecks and migration, but are rather poorer in the presence of mutation. From these coefficients, the probabilities of multilocus IBD and non-IBD can also be computed for genomic regions as functions of population size, time, and map distances. An approximate but simple recurrence formula is also developed, which generally is less accurate than the chain rule but is more robust with mutation. Used together with the chain rule it leads to explicit equations for non-IBD in a region. The results can be applied to detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) by computing the probability of IBD at candidate loci in terms of identity-by-state at neighboring markers.

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A novel multiple regression method (RM) is developed to predict identity-by-descent probabilities at a locus L (IBDL), among individuals without pedigree, given information on surrounding markers and population history. These IBDL probabilities are a function of the increase in linkage disequilibrium (LD) generated by drift in a homogeneous population over generations. Three parameters are sufficient to describe population history: effective population size (Ne), number of generations since foundation (T), and marker allele frequencies among founders (p). IBD L are used in a simulation study to map a quantitative trait locus (QTL) via variance component estimation. RM is compared to a coalescent method (CM) in terms of power and robustness of QTL detection. Differences between RM and CM are small but significant. For example, RM is more powerful than CM in dioecious populations, but not in monoecious populations. Moreover, RM is more robust than CM when marker phases are unknown or when there is complete LD among founders or Ne is wrong, and less robust when p is wrong. CM utilises all marker haplotype information, whereas RM utilises information contained in each individual marker and all possible marker pairs but not in higher order interactions. RM consists of a family of models encompassing four different population structures, and two ways of using marker information, which contrasts with the single model that must cater for all possible evolutionary scenarios in CM.

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Particulate matter is common in our environment and has been linked to human health problems particularly in the ultrafine size range. A range of chemical species have been associated with particulate matter and of special concern are the hazardous chemicals that can accentuate health problems. If the sources of such particles can be identified then strategies can be developed for the reduction of air pollution and consequently, the improvement of the quality of life. In this investigation, particle number size distribution data and the concentrations of chemical species were obtained at two sites in Brisbane, Australia. Source apportionment was used to determine the sources (or factors) responsible for the particle size distribution data. The apportionment was performed by Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) and Principal Component Analysis/Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA/APCS), and the results were compared with information from the gaseous chemical composition analysis. Although PCA/APCS resolved more sources, the results of the PMF analysis appear to be more reliable. Six common sources identified by both methods include: traffic 1, traffic 2, local traffic, biomass burning, and two unassigned factors. Thus motor vehicle related activities had the most impact on the data with the average contribution from nearly all sources to the measured concentrations higher during peak traffic hours and weekdays. Further analyses incorporated the meteorological measurements into the PMF results to determine the direction of the sources relative to the measurement sites, and this indicated that traffic on the nearby road and intersection was responsible for most of the factors. The described methodology which utilised a combination of three types of data related to particulate matter to determine the sources could assist future development of particle emission control and reduction strategies.

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The need for a house rental model in Townsville, Australia is addressed. Models developed for predicting house rental levels are described. An analytical model is built upon a priori selected variables and parameters of rental levels. Regression models are generated to provide a comparison to the analytical model. Issues in model development and performance evaluation are discussed. A comparison of the models indicates that the analytical model performs better than the regression models.

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Automated process discovery techniques aim at extracting models from information system logs in order to shed light into the business processes supported by these systems. Existing techniques in this space are effective when applied to relatively small or regular logs, but otherwise generate large and spaghetti-like models. In previous work, trace clustering has been applied in an attempt to reduce the size and complexity of automatically discovered process models. The idea is to split the log into clusters and to discover one model per cluster. The result is a collection of process models -- each one representing a variant of the business process -- as opposed to an all-encompassing model. Still, models produced in this way may exhibit unacceptably high complexity. In this setting, this paper presents a two-way divide-and-conquer process discovery technique, wherein the discovered process models are split on the one hand by variants and on the other hand hierarchically by means of subprocess extraction. The proposed technique allows users to set a desired bound for the complexity of the produced models. Experiments on real-life logs show that the technique produces collections of models that are up to 64% smaller than those extracted under the same complexity bounds by applying existing trace clustering techniques.

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Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.

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Purpose: The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone for the assessment of osteoporosis follows a parabolic-type dependence with bone volume fraction; having minima values corresponding to both entire bone and entire marrow. Langton has recently proposed that the primary BUA mechanism may be significant phase interference due to variations in propagation transit time through the test sample as detected over the phase-sensitive surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. This fundamentally simple concept assumes that the propagation of ultrasound through a complex solid : liquid composite sample such as cancellous bone may be considered by an array of parallel ‘sonic rays’. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated, being a minimum (tmin) solely through bone and a maximum (tmax) solely through marrow. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS), ranging from tmin to tmax, may be defined describing the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit time over the surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. Phase interference may result from interaction of ‘sonic rays’ of differing transit times. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a dependence of phase interference upon the lateral inhomogenity of transit time by comparing experimental measurements and computer simulation predictions of ultrasound propagation through a range of relatively simplistic solid:liquid models exhibiting a range of lateral inhomogeneities. Methods: A range of test models was manufactured using acrylic and water as surrogates for bone and marrow respectively. The models varied in thickness in one dimension normal to the direction of propagation, hence exhibiting a range of transit time lateral inhomogeneities, ranging from minimal (single transit time) to maximal (wedge; ultimately the limiting case where each sonic ray has a unique transit time). For the experimental component of the study, two unfocused 1 MHz ¾” broadband diameter transducers were utilized in transmission mode; ultrasound signals were recorded for each of the models. The computer simulation was performed with Matlab, where the transit time and relative amplitude of each sonic ray was calculated. The transit time for each sonic ray was defined as the sum of transit times through acrylic and water components. The relative amplitude considered the reception area for each sonic ray along with absorption in the acrylic. To replicate phase-sensitive detection, all sonic rays were summed and the output signal plotted in comparison with the experimentally derived output signal. Results: From qualtitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental and computer simulation results, there is an extremely high degree of agreement of 94.2% to 99.0% between the two approaches, supporting the concept that propagation of an ultrasound wave, for the models considered, may be approximated by a parallel sonic ray model where the transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of ‘bone’ and ‘marrow’. Conclusions: This combined experimental and computer simulation study has successfully demonstrated that lateral inhomogeneity of transit time has significant potential for phase interference to occur if a phase-sensitive ultrasound receive transducer is implemented as in most commercial ultrasound bone analysis devices.

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Process modeling grammars are used to create scripts of a business domain that a process-aware information system is intended to support. A key grammatical construct of such grammars is known as a Gateway. A Gateway construct is used to describe scenarios in which the workflow of a process diverges or converges according to relevant conditions. Gateway constructs have been subjected to much academic discussion about their meaning, role and usefulness, and have been linked to both process-modeling errors and process-model understandability. This paper examines perceptual discriminability effects of Gateway constructs on an individual's abilities to interpret process models. We compare two ways of expressing two convergence and divergence patterns – Parallel Split and Simple Merge – implemented in a process modeling grammar. On the basis of an experiment with 98 students, we provide empirical evidence that Gateway constructs aid the interpretation of process models due to a perceptual discriminability effect, especially when models are complex. We discuss the emerging implications for research and practice, in terms of revisions to grammar specifications, guideline development and design choices in process modeling.

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The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.