Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Computer profiling for forensic purposes

Computer forensics is the process of gathering and analysing evidence from computer systems to aid in the investigation of a crime. Typically, such investigations are undertaken by human forensic examiners using purpose-built software to discover evidence from a computer disk. This process is a manual one, and the time it takes for a forensic examiner to conduct such an investigation is proportional to the storage capacity of the computer's disk drives. The heterogeneity and complexity of various data formats stored on modern computer systems compounds the problems posed by the sheer volume of data. The decision to undertake a computer forensic examination of a computer system is a decision to commit significant quantities of a human examiner's time. Where there is no prior knowledge of the information contained on a computer system, this commitment of time and energy occurs with little idea of the potential benefit to the investigation. The key contribution of this research is the design and development of an automated process to describe a computer system and its activity for the purposes of a computer forensic investigation. The term proposed for this process is computer profiling. A model of a computer system and its activity has been developed over the course of this research. Using this model a computer system, which is the subj ect of investigation, can be automatically described in terms useful to a forensic investigator. The computer profiling process IS resilient to attempts to disguise malicious computer activity. This resilience is achieved by detecting inconsistencies in the information used to infer the apparent activity of the computer. The practicality of the computer profiling process has been demonstrated by a proof-of concept software implementation. The model and the prototype implementation utilising the model were tested with data from real computer systems. The resilience of the process to attempts to disguise malicious activity has also been demonstrated with practical experiments conducted with the same prototype software implementation.

Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with the associative-group monosubstituted pyridines 3-minopyridine, 3-carboxypyridine (nicotinic acid) and 2-carboxypyridine (picolinic acid).

The 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with 3-aminopyridine [3-aminopyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate dihydrate, C5H7N2+·C4H5O6-·2H2O, (I)], pyridine-3-carboxylic acid (nicotinic acid) [anhydrous 3-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-, (II)] and pyridine-2-carboxylic acid [2-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate monohydrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-·H2O, (III)] have been determined. In (I) and (II), there is a direct pyridinium-carboxyl N+-HO hydrogen-bonding interaction, four-centred in (II), giving conjoint cyclic R12(5) associations. In contrast, the N-HO association in (III) is with a water O-atom acceptor, which provides links to separate tartrate anions through Ohydroxy acceptors. All three compounds have the head-to-tail C(7) hydrogen-bonded chain substructures commonly associated with 1:1 proton-transfer hydrogen tartrate salts. These chains are extended into two-dimensional sheets which, in hydrates (I) and (III) additionally involve the solvent water molecules. Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures are generated via crosslinking through the associative functional groups of the substituted pyridinium cations. In the sheet struture of (I), both water molecules act as donors and acceptors in interactions with separate carboxyl and hydroxy O-atom acceptors of the primary tartrate chains, closing conjoint cyclic R44(8), R34(11) and R33(12) associations. Also, in (II) and (III) there are strong cation carboxyl-carboxyl O-HO hydrogen bonds [OO = 2.5387 (17) Å in (II) and 2.441 (3) Å in (III)], which in (II) form part of a cyclic R22(6) inter-sheet association. This series of heteroaromatic Lewis base-hydrogen L-tartrate salts provides further examples of molecular assembly facilitated by the presence of the classical two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded hydrogen tartrate or hydrogen tartrate-water sheet substructures which are expanded into three-dimensional frameworks via peripheral cation bifunctional substituent-group crosslinking interactions.

Street computing workshop 2009

The Street Computing workshop, held in conjunction with OZCHI 2009, solicits papers discussing new research directions, early research results, works-in-progress and critical surveys of prior research work in the areas of ubiquitous computing and interaction design for urban environments. Urban spaces have unique characteristics. Typically, they are densely populated, buzzing with life twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. These traits afford many opportunities, but they also present many challenges: traffic jams, smog and pollution, stress placed on public services, and more. Computing technology, particularly the kind that can be placed in the hands of citizens, holds much promise in combating some of these challenges. Yet, computation is not merely a tool for overcoming challenges; rather, when embedded appropriately in our everyday lives, it becomes a tool of opportunity, for shaping how our cities evolve, for enabling us to interact with our city and its people in new ways, and for uncovering useful, but hidden relationships and correlations between elements of the city. The increasing availability of an urban computing infrastructure has lead to new and exciting ways inhabitants can interact with their city. This includes interaction with a wide range of services (e.g. public transport, public services), conceptual representations of the city (e.g. local weather and traffic conditions), the availability of a variety of shared and personal displays (e.g. public, ambient, mobile) and the use of different interaction modes (e.g. tangible, gesture-based, token-based). This workshop solicits papers that address the above themes in some way. We encourage researchers to submit work that deals with challenges and possibilities that the availability of urban computing infrastructure such as sensors and middleware for sensor networks pose. This includes new and innovative ways of interacting with and within urban environments; user experience design and participatory design approaches for urban environments; social aspects of urban computing; and other related areas.

Signs, symptoms and comorbidities in contact lens-related microbial keratitis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to characterize the clinical signs, symptoms, and ocular and systemic comorbidities in a large case series of contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Methods: Two hundred ninety-seven cases of contact lens-related microbial keratitis, aged between 15 and 64 years were detected through surveillance of hospital and community based ophthalmic practitioners in Australia and New Zealand. Full clinical data were available for 190 cases and 90 were interviewed by telephone. Clinical data included the size, location, and degree of anterior chamber response. Symptom data were available from the practitioner and from participant self-report. Associations between symptoms and disease severity were evaluated. Data on ocular and systemic disease were collected from participants and practitioners. The frequency of comorbidities was compared between the different severities of disease and to population norms. Results: More severe disease was associated with greater symptom severity and pain was the most prevalent symptom reported. Ninety-one percent of cases showed progression of ocular symptoms after lens removal, and symptom progression was associated with all severities of disease. Twenty-five percent of cases reported prior episodes requiring emergency attention. Thyroid disease (p 0.05) and self-reported poor health (p 0.001) were more common in cases compared with age-matched population norms. Discussion: Information on the signs, symptoms, and comorbidities associated with contact lens-related microbial keratitis may be useful in patient education and for practitioners involved in the fitting of lenses and management of complications. Although pain was the most common symptom experienced, progression of symptoms despite lens removal was close to universal. Poor general health, particularly respiratory disease and thyroid disease was more common in cases than in the general population, which may prompt practitioners to recommend flexibility in wear schedules when in poor health or the selection of a lower risk wear schedule in at risk patients

A novel profluorescent dinitroxide for imaging polypropylene degradation

Free-radical processes underpin the thermo-oxidative degradation of polyolefins. Thus, to extend the lifetime of these polymers, stabilizers are generally added during processing to scavenge the free radicals formed as the polymer degrades. Nitroxide radical precursors, such as hindered amine stabilizers (HAS),1,2 are common polypropylene additives as the nitroxide moiety is a potent scavenger of polymer alkyl radicals (R¥). Oxidation of HAS by radicals formed during polypropylene degradation yields nitroxide radicals (RRNO¥), which rapidly trap the polymer degradation species to produce alkoxyamines, thus retarding oxidative polymer degradation. This increase in polymer stability is demonstrated by a lengthening of the “induction period” of the polymer (the time prior to a sharp rise in the oxidation of the polymer). Instrumental techniques such as chemiluminescence or infrared spectroscopy are somewhat limited in detecting changes in the polymer during the initial stages of degradation. Therefore, other methods for observing polymer degradation have been sought as the useful life of a polymer does not extend far beyond its “induction period”

Mitigating Democracy and 'A Question on Reason'

This book details the early political philosophy of Jean-Paul Gagnon. It deals with the ideas of democracy as something endemic to human nature; with practical methods for the improvement of democracy; and a mix of other political concepts. The book also has a response to the Russian Federation's development of the 'mother of all bombs' which leads Gagnon to question reason itself in humanity's progress.

A pilot randomised control trial of general practitioner and exercise physiologist interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in overweight patients [Abstract]

Aims & Rationale/Objectives: With the knowledge that overweight is a major public health concern in Australia, that a multidisciplinary team approach to the management of lifestyle-related conditions is supported, and that the Australian Government recently recognised the role of the exercise physiologist (EP) in reducing the health burden of disease by their inclusion for reimbursement under the Medicare Plus scheme, this study sought to undertake a pilot RCT to compare GP and EP interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population. Methods and Measures: Overweight patients recruited by a convenience sample of GPs were randomised into one of three arms: the control group, or the GP or EP intervention group (in which patients received either five GP or five EP consultations over 24 weeks). Patients had baseline, 12- and 24-week measures of body composition and cardio-respiratory fitness, and completed baseline and end-of-study surveys, fasting lipids and glucose. GPs and EPs completed an end-of-study survey. Results:Sixty-seven patients attended the baseline assessment. Overall retention rate was 67%. Patients were generally satisfied with the effectiveness of the interventions and their weight reduction. Favourable trends in BMI, weight, glucose and exercise levels for GP and EP intervention groups and in physical activity levels for all groups Conclusions: This study supports the feasibility of a RCT of GP and EP interventions for decreasing primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population.

Are there any true adult-onset offenders?

In the extant literature, adult-onset offending has usually been identified using official sources. It is possible, however, that many of the individuals identified would have had unofficial histories of prior offending. To investigate this issue, the men from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) were examined. The CSDD is a prospective longitudinal study of men from inner-city London, followed from age 8 to age 48. Onset of offending was identified using official records and then the self-reported offending of the adult-onset offender group (with a first conviction at age 21 or later) was compared to others. All the adult-onset offenders self-reported some previous offending in childhood and adolescence but most of this offending was not sufficiently frequent or serious to lead to a conviction in practice. About one-third of adult-onset offenders were considered to be self-reported delinquents who were realistically in danger of being convicted because of the frequency of their offending. For some, the adjudication by the criminal justice system was simply the first time that their ongoing pattern of offending had been detected. Their lack of detection was because the types of offences they were committing had lower detection rates.

Identifying the learning development of students who are refugees

Students who are refugees need understanding and support to settle successfully into mainstream Australian classrooms. Teachers not aware of students’ prior learning and the process of second language acquisition may have difficulty providing the most appropriate learning environments to meet these students’ needs. This study found that, with no coordination of information on students’ learning backgrounds nor of their learning needs and development, students were in danger of being identified as at-risk of having a learning disability, with little support to substantiate such claims.

Eyelid pressure on the cornea

The eyelids play an important role in lubricating and protecting the surface of the eye. Each blink serves to spread fresh tears, remove debris and replenish the smooth optical surface of the eye. Yet little is known about how the eyelids contact the ocular surface and what pressure distribution exists between the eyelids and cornea. As the principal refractive component of the eye, the cornea is a major element of the eye’s optics. The optical properties of the cornea are known to be susceptible to the pressure exerted by the eyelids. Abnormal eyelids, due to disease, have altered pressure on the ocular surface due to changes in the shape, thickness or position of the eyelids. Normal eyelids also cause corneal distortions that are most often noticed when they are resting closer to the corneal centre (for example during reading). There were many reports of monocular diplopia after reading due to corneal distortion, but prior to videokeratoscopes these localised changes could not be measured. This thesis has measured the influence of eyelid pressure on the cornea after short-term near tasks and techniques were developed to quantify eyelid pressure and its distribution. The profile of the wave-like eyelid-induced corneal changes and the refractive effects of these distortions were investigated. Corneal topography changes due to both the upper and lower eyelids were measured for four tasks involving two angles of vertical downward gaze (20° and 40°) and two near work tasks (reading and steady fixation). After examining the depth and shape of the corneal changes, conclusions were reached regarding the magnitude and distribution of upper and lower eyelid pressure for these task conditions. The degree of downward gaze appears to alter the upper eyelid pressure on the cornea, with deeper changes occurring after greater angles of downward gaze. Although the lower eyelid was further from the corneal centre in large angles of downward gaze, its effect on the cornea was greater than that of the upper eyelid. Eyelid tilt, curvature, and position were found to be influential in the magnitude of eyelid-induced corneal changes. Refractively these corneal changes are clinically and optically significant with mean spherical and astigmatic changes of about 0.25 D after only 15 minutes of downward gaze (40° reading and steady fixation conditions). Due to the magnitude of these changes, eyelid pressure in downward gaze offers a possible explanation for some of the day-to-day variation observed in refraction. Considering the magnitude of these changes and previous work on their regression, it is recommended that sustained tasks performed in downward gaze should be avoided for at least 30 minutes before corneal and refractive assessment requiring high accuracy. Novel procedures were developed to use a thin (0.17 mm) tactile piezoresistive pressure sensor mounted on a rigid contact lens to measure eyelid pressure. A hydrostatic calibration system was constructed to convert raw digital output of the sensors to actual pressure units. Conditioning the sensor prior to use regulated the measurement response and sensor output was found to stabilise about 10 seconds after loading. The influences of various external factors on sensor output were studied. While the sensor output drifted slightly over several hours, it was not significant over the measurement time of 30 seconds used for eyelid pressure, as long as the length of the calibration and measurement recordings were matched. The error associated with calibrating at room temperature but measuring at ocular surface temperature led to a very small overestimation of pressure. To optimally position the sensor-contact lens combination under the eyelid margin, an in vivo measurement apparatus was constructed. Using this system, eyelid pressure increases were observed when the upper eyelid was placed on the sensor and a significant increase was apparent when the eyelid pressure was increased by pulling the upper eyelid tighter against the eye. For a group of young adult subjects, upper eyelid pressure was measured using this piezoresistive sensor system. Three models of contact between the eyelid and ocular surface were used to calibrate the pressure readings. The first model assumed contact between the eyelid and pressure sensor over more than the pressure cell width of 1.14 mm. Using thin pressure sensitive carbon paper placed under the eyelid, a contact imprint was measured and this width used for the second model of contact. Lastly as Marx’s line has been implicated as the region of contact with the ocular surface, its width was measured and used as the region of contact for the third model. The mean eyelid pressures calculated using these three models for the group of young subjects were 3.8 ± 0.7 mmHg (whole cell), 8.0 ± 3.4 mmHg (imprint width) and 55 ± 26 mmHg (Marx’s line). The carbon imprints using Pressurex-micro confirmed previous suggestions that a band of the eyelid margin has primary contact with the ocular surface and provided the best estimate of the contact region and hence eyelid pressure. Although it is difficult to directly compare the results with previous eyelid pressure measurement attempts, the eyelid pressure calculated using this model was slightly higher than previous manometer measurements but showed good agreement with the eyelid force estimated using an eyelid tensiometer. The work described in this thesis has shown that the eyelids have a significant influence on corneal shape, even after short-term tasks (15 minutes). Instrumentation was developed using piezoresistive sensors to measure eyelid pressure. Measurements for the upper eyelid combined with estimates of the contact region between the cornea and the eyelid enabled quantification of the upper eyelid pressure for a group of young adult subjects. These techniques will allow further investigation of the interaction between the eyelids and the surface of the eye.

Simulation and enhancement of a cardiovascular device test rig

Cardiovascular assist devices are tested in mock circulation loops (MCLs) prior to animal and clinical testing. These MCLs rely on characteristics such as pneumatic parameters to create pressure and flow, and pipe dimensions to replicate the resistance, compliance and fluid inertia of the natural cardiovascular system. A mathematical simulation was developed in SIMULINK to simulate an existing MCL. Model validation was achieved by applying the physical MCL characteristics to the simulation and comparing the resulting pressure traces. These characteristics were subsequently altered to improve and thus predict the performance of a more accurate physical system. The simulation was successful in simulating the physical mock circulation loop, and proved to be a useful tool in the development of improved cardiovascular device test rigs.

Changes in intraocular pressure and ocular pulse amplitude with accommodation

Aims: To investigate the change that occurs in intraocular pressure (IOP) and ocular pulse amplitude (OPA) with accommodation in young adult myopes and emmetropes. Methods: Fifteen progressing myopic and 17 emmetropic young adult subjects had their IOP and OPA measured using the Pascal dynamic contour tonometer. Measurements were taken initially with accommodation relaxed, and then following 2 min of near fixation (accommodative demand 3 D). Baseline measurements of axial length and corneal thickness were also collected prior to the IOP measures. Results: IOP significantly decreased with accommodation in both the myopic and emmetropic subjects (mean change 1.861.1 mm Hg, p<0.0001). There was no significant difference (p>0.05) between myopes and emmetropes in terms of baseline IOP or the magnitude of change in IOP with accommodation. OPA also decreased significantly with accommodation (mean change for all subjects 0.560.5, p<0.0001). The myopic subjects (baseline OPA 2.060.7 mm Hg) exhibited a significantly lower baseline OPA (p¼0.004) than the emmetropes (baseline OPA 3.261.3 mm Hg),and a significantly lower magnitude of change in OPA with accommodation. Conclusion: IOP decreases significantly with accommodation, and changes similarly in progressing myopic and emmetropic subjects. However, differences found between progressing myopes and emmetropes in the mean OPA levels and the decrease in OPA associated with accommodation suggested some changes in IOP dynamics associated with myopia.

Reempowering ourselves: Australian Aboriginal women

The arrival of the colonists, the invasion of Aboriginal lands and the subsequent colonization of Australia had a disastrous effect on Aboriginal women, including on-going dispossession and disempowerment. Aboriginal women’s lives and gendered realities were forever changed in most communities. The system of colonization deprived Aboriginal women of land and personal autonomy and restricted the economic, political, social, spiritual and ceremonial domains that had existed prior to colonization. It also involved the implementation of overriding patriarchal systems. This is why Aboriginal women may find understanding within the women’s movement and why feminism might offer them a source of analysis. There are some connections in the various forms of social oppression, which give women connection and a sharing on some issues. However, imperialism and colonialism are also part of the women’s movement and feminism. This essay demonstrates why attempts to engage with feminism and to be included in women-centred activities might result in the denial and sidelining of Aboriginal sovereignty and further oppression and marginalisation of Aboriginal women. Moreover, strategies employed by non-Indigenous feminists can result in the maintenance of white women’s values and privileges within the dominant patriarchal white society. By engaging in these strategies feminists can also act in direct opposition to Aboriginal sovereignty and Aboriginal women. This essay states clearly that women who do not express positions or opinions in outright support of these activities still benefit from their position by proxy and contribute to the cultural dominance of non-Indigenous women. I argue that Aboriginal women need to define what empowerment might mean to themselves, and I suggest re-empowerment as an act of Aboriginal women’s healing and resistance to the on-going processes and impacts of colonization.