Study of PM10 and PM2.5 levels in three European cities: Analysis of intra and inter urban variations

In the present paper, 1-year PM10 and PM 2.5 data from roadside and urban background monitoring stations in Athens (Greece), Madrid (Spain) and London (UK) are analysed in relation to other air pollutants (NO,NO2,NOx,CO,O3 and SO2)and several meteorological parameters (wind velocity, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure), in order to investigate the sources and factors affecting particulate pollution in large European cities. Principal component and regression analyses are therefore used to quantify the contribution of both combustion and non-combustion sources to the PM10 and PM 2.5 levels observed. The analysis reveals that the EU legislated PM 10 and PM2.5 limit values are frequently breached, forming a potential public health hazard in the areas studied. The seasonal variability patterns of particulates varies among cities and sites, with Athens and Madrid presenting higher PM10 concentrations during the warm period and suggesting the larger relative contribution of secondary and natural particles during hot and dry days. It is estimated that the contribution of non-combustion sources varies substantially among cities, sites and seasons and ranges between 38-67% and 40-62% in London, 26-50% and 20-62% in Athens, and 31-58% and 33-68% in Madrid, for both PM10 and PM 2.5. Higher contributions from non-combustion sources are found at urban background sites in all three cities, whereas in the traffic sites the seasonal differences are smaller. In addition, the non-combustion fraction of both particle metrics is higher during the warm season at all sites. On the whole, the analysis provides evidence of the substantial impact of non-combustion sources on local air quality in all three cities. While vehicular exhaust emissions carry a large part of the risk posed on human health by particle exposure, it is most likely that mitigation measures designed for their reduction will have a major effect only at traffic sites and additional measures will be necessary for the control of background levels. However, efforts in mitigation strategies should always focus on optimal health effects.

Development of a PWR-W and an AP1000® containment building 3D model with a CFD code for Best-Estimate Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis

The simulation of design basis accidents in a containment building is usually conducted with a lumped parameter model. The codes normally used by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for that license analysis are WGOTHIC or COCO, which are suitable to provide an adequate estimation of the overall peak temperature and pressure of the containment. However, for the detailed study of the thermal-hydraulic behavior in every room and compartment of the containment building, it could be more convenient to model the containment with a more detailed 3D representation of the geometry of the whole building. The main objective of this project is to obtain a standard PWR Westinghouse as well as an AP1000® containment model for a CFD code to analyze the thermal-hydraulic detailed behavior during a design basis accident. In this paper the development and testing of both containment models is presented.

Análisis de sistemas dinámicos y complejos en la Liga Profesional de Balonmano de España = Complex and dynamical systems analysis in Spanish Professional Handball League

El propósito de esta tesis fue estudiar el rendimiento ofensivo de los equipos de balonmano de élite cuando se considera el balonmano como un sistema dinámico complejo no lineal. La perspectiva de análisis dinámica dependiente del tiempo fue adoptada para evaluar el rendimiento de los equipos durante el partido. La muestra general comprendió los 240 partidos jugados en la temporada 2011-2012 de la liga profesional masculina de balonmano de España (Liga ASOBAL). En el análisis posterior solo se consideraron los partidos ajustados (diferencia final de goles ≤ 5; n = 142). El estado del marcador, la localización del partido, el nivel de los oponentes y el periodo de juego fueron incorporados al análisis como variables situacionales. Tres estudios compusieron el núcleo de la tesis. En el primer estudio, analizamos la coordinación entre las series temporales que representan el proceso goleador a lo largo del partido de cada uno de los dos equipos que se enfrentan. Autocorrelaciones, correlaciones cruzadas, doble media móvil y transformada de Hilbert fueron usadas para el análisis. El proceso goleador de los equipos presentó una alta consistencia a lo largo de todos los partidos, así como fuertes modos de coordinación en fase en todos los contextos de juego. Las únicas diferencias se encontraron en relación al periodo de juego. La coordinación en los procesos goleadores de los equipos fue significativamente menor en el 1er y 2º periodo (0–10 min y 10–20 min), mostrando una clara coordinación creciente a medida que el partido avanzaba. Esto sugiere que son los 20 primeros minutos aquellos que rompen los partidos. En el segundo estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales (efecto inmediato, a corto y a medio plazo) de los tiempos muertos en el rendimiento goleador de los equipos. Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple fueron empleados para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron incrementos de 0.59, 1.40 y 1.85 goles para los periodos que comprenden la primera, tercera y quinta posesión de los equipos que pidieron el tiempo muerto. Inversamente, se encontraron efectos significativamente negativos para los equipos rivales, con decrementos de 0.50, 1.43 y 2.05 goles en los mismos periodos respectivamente. La influencia de las variables situacionales solo se registró en ciertos periodos de juego. Finalmente, en el tercer estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales de las exclusiones de los jugadores sobre el rendimiento goleador de los equipos, tanto para los equipos que sufren la exclusión (inferioridad numérica) como para los rivales (superioridad numérica). Se emplearon modelos de regresión lineal múltiple para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron efectos negativos significativos en el número de goles marcados por los equipos con un jugador menos, con decrementos de 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62 y 0.57 goles para los periodos que comprenden el primer, segundo, tercer, cuarto y quinto minutos previos y posteriores a la exclusión. Para los rivales, los resultados mostraron efectos positivos significativos, con incrementos de la misma magnitud en los mismos periodos. Esta tendencia no se vio afectada por el estado del marcador, localización del partido, nivel de los oponentes o periodo de juego. Los incrementos goleadores fueron menores de lo que se podría esperar de una superioridad numérica de 2 minutos. Diferentes teorías psicológicas como la paralización ante situaciones de presión donde se espera un gran rendimiento pueden ayudar a explicar este hecho. Los últimos capítulos de la tesis enumeran las conclusiones principales y presentan diferentes aplicaciones prácticas que surgen de los tres estudios. Por último, se presentan las limitaciones y futuras líneas de investigación. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the offensive performance of elite handball teams when considering handball as a complex non-linear dynamical system. The time-dependent dynamic approach was adopted to assess teams’ performance during the game. The overall sample comprised the 240 games played in the season 2011-2012 of men’s Spanish Professional Handball League (ASOBAL League). In the subsequent analyses, only close games (final goal-difference ≤ 5; n = 142) were considered. Match status, game location, quality of opposition, and game period situational variables were incorporated into the analysis. Three studies composed the core of the thesis. In the first study, we analyzed the game-scoring coordination between the time series representing the scoring processes of the two opposing teams throughout the game. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, double moving average, and Hilbert transform were used for analysis. The scoring processes of the teams presented a high consistency across all the games as well as strong in-phase modes of coordination in all the game contexts. The only differences were found when controlling for the game period. The coordination in the scoring processes of the teams was significantly lower for the 1st and 2nd period (0–10 min and 10–20 min), showing a clear increasing coordination behavior as the game progressed. This suggests that the first 20 minutes are those that break the game-scoring. In the second study, we analyzed the temporal effects (immediate effect, short-term effect, and medium-term effect) of team timeouts on teams’ scoring performance. Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed increments of 0.59, 1.40 and 1.85 goals for the periods within the first, third and fifth timeout ball possessions for the teams that requested the timeout. Conversely, significant negative effects on goals scored were found for the opponent teams, with decrements of 0.59, 1.43 and 2.04 goals for the same periods, respectively. The influence of situational variables on the scoring performance was only registered in certain game periods. Finally, in the third study, we analyzed the players’ exclusions temporal effects on teams’ scoring performance, for the teams that suffer the exclusion (numerical inferiority) and for the opponents (numerical superiority). Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed significant negative effects on the number of goals scored for the teams with one less player, with decrements of 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62, and 0.57 goals for the periods within the previous and post one, two, three, four and five minutes of play. For the opponent teams, the results showed positive effects, with increments of the same magnitude in the same game periods. This trend was not affected by match status, game location, quality of opposition, or game period. The scoring increments were smaller than might be expected from a 2-minute numerical playing superiority. Psychological theories such as choking under pressure situations where good performance is expected could contribute to explain this finding. The final chapters of the thesis enumerate the main conclusions and underline the main practical applications that arise from the three studies. Lastly, limitations and future research directions are described.

Analysis of measured and simulated supraglottal acoustic waves

To date, although much attention has been paid to the estimation and modeling of the voice source (ie, the glottal airflow volume velocity), the measurement and characterization of the supraglottal pressure wave have been much less studied. Some previous results have unveiled that the supraglottal pressure wave has some spectral resonances similar to those of the voice pressure wave. This makes the supraglottal wave partially intelligible. Although the explanation for such effect seems to be clearly related to the reflected pressure wave traveling upstream along the vocal tract, the influence that nonlinear source-filter interaction has on it is not as clear. This article provides an insight into this issue by comparing the acoustic analyses of measured and simulated supraglottal and voice waves. Simulations have been performed using a high-dimensional discrete vocal fold model. Results of such comparative analysis indicate that spectral resonances in the supraglottal wave are mainly caused by the regressive pressure wave that travels upstream along the vocal tract and not by source-tract interaction. On the contrary and according to simulation results, source-tract interaction has a role in the loss of intelligibility that happens in the supraglottal wave with respect to the voice wave. This loss of intelligibility mainly corresponds to spectral differences for frequencies above 1500 Hz.

Numerical analysis of air flow past the 2415-3S airfoil for an unmanned aerial vehicle with internal propulsion system

This paper deals with the prediction of pressure and velocity fields on the 2415-3S airfoil which will be used for and unmanned aerial vehicle with internal propulsion system and in this way analyze the air flow through an internal duct of the airfoil using computational fluid dynamics. The main objective is to evaluate the effect of the internal air flow past the airfoil and how this affects the aerodynamic performance by means of lift and drag forces. For this purpose, three different designs of the internal duct were studied; starting from the base 2415-3S airfoil developed in previous investigation, basing on the hypothesis of decreasing the flow separation produced when the propulsive airflow merges the external flow, and in this way obtaining the best configuration. For that purpose, an exhaustive study of the mesh sensitivity was performed. It was used a non-structured mesh since the computational domain is tridimensional and complex. The selected mesh contains approximately 12.5 million elements. Both the computational domain and the numerical solution were made with commercial CAD and CFD software respectively. Air, incompressible and steady was analyzed. The boundary conditions are in concordance with experimental setup in the AF 6109 wind tunnel. The k-ε model is utilized to describe the turbulent flow process as followed in references. Results allowed obtaining pressure and velocity contours as well as lift and drag coefficients and also the location of separation and reattachment regions in some cases for zero degrees of angle of attack on the internal and external surfaces of the airfoil. Finally, the selection of the configuration with the best aerodynamic performance was made, selecting the option without curved baffles.

Appropiate locations for geotextile bag revetments: an analysis

Social pressure exerted by urban development, the increase in erosion on many coastal stretches, and the rise in sea level due to climate change over the last few decades have led governments to increase investment in coastal protection. In turn, a reduction in costs and increases in ease of construction and rate of implementation have led to sand-filled geotextile elements, such as bags, tubes, and containers, becoming an alternative or supplement to traditional coastal defence materials, such as rubble mounds, concrete, and so on. Not all coastal zones are appropriate for sand-filled geotextile structures as coastal defences. This article analyses suitable zones for locating geotextile bag revetments to protect coasts from storm erosion and concludes that the least suitable zones are the surf zone (on an open coast and on a slightly protected coast) and deep water (on an open coast), except if a suitable reinforcement is carried out when the demand makes it necessary this build this kind of defence.

Pulsatile blood flow interaction with arterial walls of aorta : autoregulation and impedance pressure boundary condition and its biomedical applications

Para las decisiones urgentes sobre intervenciones quirúrgicas en el sistema cardiovascular se necesitan simulaciones computacionales con resultados fiables y que consuman un tiempo de cálculo razonable. Durante años los investigadores han trabajado en diversos métodos numéricos de cálculo que resulten atractivos para los cirujanos. Estos métodos, precisos pero costosos desde el punto de vista del coste computacional, crean un desajuste entre la oferta de los ingenieros que realizan las simulaciones y los médicos que operan en el quirófano. Por otra parte, los métodos de cálculo más simplificados reducen el tiempo de cálculo pero pueden proporcionar resultados no realistas. El objetivo de esta tesis es combinar los conceptos de autorregulación e impedancia del sistema circulatorio, la interacción flujo sanguíneo-pared arterial y modelos geométricos idealizados tridimensionales de las arterias pero sin pérdida de realismo, con objeto de proponer una metodología de simulación que proporcione resultados correctos y completos, con tiempos de cálculo moderados. En las simulaciones numéricas, las condiciones de contorno basadas en historias de presión presentan inconvenientes por ser difícil conocerlas con detalle, y porque los resultados son muy sensibles ante pequeñas variaciones de dichas historias. La metodología propuesta se basa en los conceptos de autorregulación, para imponer la demanda de flujo aguas abajo del modelo en el ciclo cardiaco, y la impedancia, para representar el efecto que ejerce el flujo en el resto del sistema circulatorio sobre las arterias modeladas. De este modo las historias de presión en el contorno son resultados del cálculo, que se obtienen de manera iterativa. El método propuesto se aplica en una geometría idealizada del arco aórtico sin patologías y en otra geometría correspondiente a una disección Stanford de tipo A, considerando la interacción del flujo pulsátil con las paredes arteriales. El efecto de los tejidos circundantes también se incorpora en los modelos. También se hacen aplicaciones considerando la interacción en una geometría especifica de un paciente anciano que proviene de una tomografía computarizada. Finalmente se analiza una disección Stanford tipo B con tres modelos que incluyen la fenestración del saco. Clinicians demand fast and reliable numerical results of cardiovascular biomechanic simulations for their urgent pre-surgery decissions. Researchers during many years have work on different numerical methods in order to attract the clinicians' confidence to their colorful contours. Though precise but expensive and time-consuming methodologies create a gap between numerical biomechanics and hospital personnel. On the other hand, simulation simplifications with the aim of reduction in computational time may cause in production of unrealistic outcomes. The main objective of the current investigation is to combine ideas such as autoregulation, impedance, fluid-solid interaction and idealized geometries in order to propose a computationally cheap methodology without excessive or unrealistic simplifications. The pressure boundary conditions are critical and polemic in numerical simulations of cardiovascular system, in which a specific arterial site is of interest and the rest of the netwrok is neglected but represented by a boundary condition. The proposed methodology is a pressure boundary condition which takes advantage of numerical simplicity of application of an imposed pressure boundary condition on outlets, while it includes more sophisticated concepts such as autoregulation and impedance to gain more realistic results. Incorporation of autoregulation and impedance converts the pressure boundary conditions to an active and dynamic boundary conditions, receiving feedback from the results during the numerical calculations and comparing them with the physiological requirements. On the other hand, the impedance boundary condition defines the shapes of the pressure history curves applied at outlets. The applications of the proposed method are seen on idealized geometry of the healthy arotic arch as well as idealized Stanford type A dissection, considering the interaction of the arterial walls with the pulsatile blood flow. The effect of surrounding tissues is incorporated and studied in the models. The simulations continue with FSI analysis of a patient-specific CT scanned geometry of an old individual. Finally, inspiring of the statistic results of mortality rates in Stanford type B dissection, three models of fenestrated dissection sac is studied and discussed. Applying the developed boundary condition, an alternative hypothesis is proposed by the author with respect to the decrease in mortality rates in patients with fenestrations.

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes

Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of keratinocyte growth factor gene amplification and dispersion in evolution of great apes and humans

Keratinocyte growth factor (KGF) is a member of the fibroblast growth factor family. Portions of the gene encoding KGF were amplified during primate evolution and are present in multiple nonprocessed copies in the human genome. Nucleotide analysis of a representative sampling of these KGF-like sequences indicated that they were at least 95% identical to corresponding regions of the KGF gene. To localize these sequences to specific chromosomal sites in human and higher primates, we used fluorescence in situ hybridization. In human, using a cosmid probe encoding KGF exon 1, we assigned the location of the KGF gene to chromosome 15q15–21.1. In addition, copies of KGF-like sequences hybridizing only with a cosmid probe encoding exons 2 and 3 were localized to dispersed sites on chromosome 2q21, 9p11, 9q12–13, 18p11, 18q11, 21q11, and 21q21.1. The distribution of KGF-like sequences suggests a role for alphoid DNA in their amplification and dispersion. In chimpanzee, KGF-like sequences were observed at five chromosomal sites, which were each homologous to sites in human, while in gorilla, a subset of four of these homologous sites was identified; in orangutan two sites were identified, while gibbon exhibited only a single site. The chromosomal localization of KGF sequences in human and great ape genomes indicates that amplification and dispersion occurred in multiple discrete steps, with initial KGF gene duplication and dispersion taking place in gibbon and involving loci corresponding to human chromosomes 15 and 21. These findings support the concept of a closer evolutionary relationship of human and chimpanzee and a possible selective pressure for such dispersion during the evolution of higher primates.

Does Leaf Position within a Canopy Affect Acclimation of Photosynthesis to Elevated CO2?1 : Analysis of a Wheat Crop under Free-Air CO2 Enrichment

Previous studies of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 have focused on the most recently expanded, sunlit leaves in the canopy. We examined acclimation in a vertical profile of leaves through a canopy of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The crop was grown at an elevated CO2 partial pressure of 55 Pa within a replicated field experiment using free-air CO2 enrichment. Gas exchange was used to estimate in vivo carboxylation capacity and the maximum rate of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate-limited photosynthesis. Net photosynthetic CO2 uptake was measured for leaves in situ within the canopy. Leaf contents of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco), light-harvesting-complex (LHC) proteins, and total N were determined. Elevated CO2 did not affect carboxylation capacity in the most recently expanded leaves but led to a decrease in lower, shaded leaves during grain development. Despite this acclimation, in situ photosynthetic CO2 uptake remained higher under elevated CO2. Acclimation at elevated CO2 was accompanied by decreases in both Rubisco and total leaf N contents and an increase in LHC content. Elevated CO2 led to a larger increase in LHC/Rubisco in lower canopy leaves than in the uppermost leaf. Acclimation of leaf photosynthesis to elevated CO2 therefore depended on both vertical position within the canopy and the developmental stage.

Oxygen Requirement and Inhibition of C4 Photosynthesis1 : An Analysis of C4 Plants Deficient in the C3 and C4 Cycles

The basis for O2 sensitivity of C4 photosynthesis was evaluated using a C4-cycle-limited mutant of Amaranthus edulis (a phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase-deficient mutant), and a C3-cycle-limited transformant of Flaveria bidentis (an antisense ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase [Rubisco] small subunit transformant). Data obtained with the C4-cycle-limited mutant showed that atmospheric levels of O2 (20 kPa) caused increased inhibition of photosynthesis as a result of higher levels of photorespiration. The optimal O2 partial pressure for photosynthesis was reduced from approximately 5 kPa O2 to 1 to 2 kPa O2, becoming similar to that of C3 plants. Therefore, the higher O2 requirement for optimal C4 photosynthesis is specifically associated with the C4 function. With the Rubisco-limited F. bidentis, there was less inhibition of photosynthesis by supraoptimal levels of O2 than in the wild type. When CO2 fixation by Rubisco is limited, an increase in the CO2 concentration in bundle-sheath cells via the C4 cycle may further reduce the oxygenase activity of Rubisco and decrease the inhibition of photosynthesis by high partial pressures of O2 while increasing CO2 leakage and overcycling of the C4 pathway. These results indicate that in C4 plants the investment in the C3 and C4 cycles must be balanced for maximum efficiency.

Silver ion high pressure liquid chromatography provides unprecedented separation of sterols: application to the enzymatic formation of cholesta-5,8-dien-3 beta-ol.

We report that silver ion HPLC provides remarkable separations of C27 sterols differing only in the number or location of olefinic double bonds. This technique has been extended to LC-MS, analysis of purified components by GC, GC-MS, and 1H NMR, and to its use on a semipreparative scale. The application of this methodology for the demonstration of the catalysis, by rat liver microsomes, of the conversion of 7-dehydrocholesterol to cholesta-5,8-dien-3 beta-ol is also presented.

Selective pressure of a quinoxaline nonnucleoside inhibitor of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) on HIV-1 replication results in the emergence of nucleoside RT-inhibitor-specific (RT Leu-74-->Val or Ile and Val-75-->Leu or Ile) HIV-1 mutants.

The quinoxaline nonnucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI) (S)-4-isopropoxycarbonyl-6-methoxy-3-(methylthiomethyl)-3,4- dihydroquinoxaline-2(1H)-thione (HBY 097) was used to select for drug-resistant HIV-1 variants in vitro. The viruses first developed mutations affecting the NNRTI-binding pocket, and five of six strains displayed the RT G190-->E substitution, which is characteristic for HIV-1 resistance against quinoxalines. In one variant, a new mutant (G190-->Q) most likely evolved from preexisting G190-->E mutants. The negative charge introduced by the G190-->E substitution was maintained at that site of the pocket by simultaneous selection for V179-->D together with G190-->Q. After continued exposure to the drug, mutations at positions so far known to be specific for resistance against nucleoside RT inhibitors (NRTIs) (L74-->V/I and V75-->L/I) were consistently detected in all cultures. The inhibitory activities of the cellular conversion product of 2',3'-dideoxyinosine (ddI, didanosine), 2',3'-dideoxyadenosine (ddA) and of 2',3'-didehydro-3'-deoxythymidine (d4T, stavudine) against these late-passage viruses were shown to be enhanced with the L74-->V/I RT mutant virus as compared with the wild-type (wt) HIV-1MN isolate. Clonal analysis proved linkage of the codon 74 and codon 75 mutations to the NNRTI-specific mutations in all RT gene fragments. The nonnucleoside- and nucleoside-resistance mutation sites are separated by approximately 35 A. We propose that the two sites "communicate" through the template-primer which is situated in the DNA-binding cleft between these two sites. Quinoxalines cause high selective pressure on HIV-1 replication in vitro; however, the implication of these findings for the treatment of HIV-1 infection has yet to be determined.

Twenty-year advanced DInSAR analysis of severe land subsidence: The Alto Guadalentín Basin (Spain) case study

A twenty-year period of severe land subsidence evolution in the Alto Guadalentín Basin (southeast Spain) is monitored using multi-sensor SAR images, processed by advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) techniques. The SAR images used in this study consist of four datasets acquired by ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, ALOS and COSMO-SkyMed satellites between 1992 and 2012. The integration of ground surface displacement maps retrieved for different time periods allows us to quantify up to 2.50 m of cumulated displacements that occurred between 1992 and 2012 in the Alto Guadalentín Basin. DInSAR results were locally compared with global positioning system (GPS) data available for two continuous stations located in the study area, demonstrating the high consistency of local vertical motion measurements between the two different surveying techniques. An average absolute error of 4.6 ± 4 mm for the ALOS data and of 4.8 ± 3.5 mm for the COSMO-SkyMed data confirmed the reliability of the analysis. The spatial analysis of DInSAR ground surface displacement reveals a direct correlation with the thickness of the compressible alluvial deposits. Detected ground subsidence in the past 20 years is most likely a consequence of a 100–200 m groundwater level drop that has persisted since the 1970s due to the overexploitation of the Alto Guadalentín aquifer system. The negative gradient of the pore pressure is responsible for the extremely slow consolidation of a very thick (> 100 m) layer of fine-grained silt and clay layers with low vertical hydraulic permeability (approximately 50 mm/h) wherein the maximum settlement has still not been reached.

Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain) using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain) has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.