Essays on Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles

This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

Global interactions between fire and vegetation, human activities and climate

Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

In two waters: contemporary evolution of lagoonal and marine white seabream (Diplodus sargus) populations

Brackish water ecosystems are often exposed to wide variations in environmental variables, including temperature and salinity, which may cause strong selective pressures on organisms modifying the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to test whether there is a ‘divergence-with-gene flow’ in coastal lagoon populations of white seabream (Diplodus sargus) (Ria Formosa, S Portugal and Mar Menor, SE Spain) respect to four marine populations, by using partial sequences of cyt b mitochondrial gene and information from nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was highest in both coastal lagoons (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) considering mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Although some of FST population pairwise comparisons were not significant, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVAs) detected differences between groups (coastal lagoon and marine) close to significance. Also, only two haplotypes (Cytb-17 and Cytb-18) were detected in both coastal lagoon sampling sites and these localities (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) showed the highest number of singletons, some of them with a high number of mutations, as has been already described for other Mar Menor populations (Pomatochistus marmoratus and Holothuria polii). Also, several tests detected significant positive and balancing selection considering mtDNA and microsatellite data. These data support the hypothesis of selection as one of the drivers of the genetic differences found between coastal lagoon and marine populations. The life strategy adopted by Diplodus sargus in coastal lagoons allows it to decrease its mortality rate and improve the heritability of its genes. Also, the increase time spent in coastal lagoons with different temperatures and salinities favours the fitness selection and the maintenance of exclusive haplotypes and genotypes in coastal lagoon inhabitants favouring the ‘divergence-with-gene-flow’.

TEACHING MENSTRUAL HEALTH AND HYGIENE TO YOUNG WOMEN IN EASTERN UGANDA WITH REUSABLE MENSTRUAL PADS

In order to identify the impact of teaching menstrual health and hygiene with reusable menstrual pads on knowledge retention and school attendance, qualitative and quantitative data was collected from three rural schools in three districts of eastern Uganda: Amuria, Bukedea, and Ngora. Research techniques employed were preliminary and post surveys of 85 young women; average age 16.9 years. Findings include positive and negative results. Participants’ feelings of normalcy and comfort increased and participants had improved understanding of sexual climax and appropriate menstrual management strategies. There was no statistically significant impact of teaching on topics of sexual intercourse or pregnancy. The impact of reusable menstrual pad sanitary technology on school attendance was negative as more young women reported missing up to a full day of school during their menstrual period (χ2 (3, 73) = 7.81, p = 0.05). Study limitations are discussed and future work is suggested.

Investigation of Escape and Negative Student Behaviors Related to Florida State High Stakes Test Preparation in Miami-Dade County Public High Schools, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between pressure to perform on state mandated, high-stakes tests and the rate of student escape behavior defined as the number of school suspensions and absences. The state assigned grade of a school was used as a surrogate measure of pressure with the assumption that pressure increased as the school grade decreased. Student attendance and suspension data were gathered from all 33 of the regular public high schools in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The research questions were: Is the number of suspensions highest in the third quarter, when most FCAT preparation takes place for each of the 3 school years 2007-08 through 2009-10? How accurately does the high school’s grade predict the number of suspensions and number of absences during each of the 4 school years 2005-06 through 2008-09? The research questions were answered using repeated measures analysis of variance for research question #1 and non-linear multiple regression for research question #2. No significant difference could be found between the numbers of suspensions in each of the grading periods nor was there a relationship between the number of suspensions and school grade. A statistically significant relationship was found between student attendance and school grade. When plotted, this relationship was found to be quadratic in nature and formed a loose inverted U for each of the four years during which data were collected. This indicated that students in very high and very low performing schools had low levels of absences while those in the midlevel of the distribution of school performance (C schools) had the greatest rates of absence. Identifying a relationship between the pressures associated with high stakes testing and student escape behavior suggests that it might be useful for building administrators to reevaluate test preparation activities and procedures being used in their building and to include anxiety reducing strategies. As a relationship was found, it sets the foundation for future studies to identify whether testing related activities are impacting some students emotionally and are causing unintended consequences of testing mandates.

Liquidity, Governance and Adverse Selection in Asset Pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company’s shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity – in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.

Changing the servicescape : The influence of music, self-disclosure and eye gaze on service encounter experience and approach-avoidance behavior

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and understand the effect of a servicescape’s ambient and social conditions on consumers’ service encounter experience and their approach/avoidance behavior in a retail context. In three papers, with a total sample of over 1600 participants (including 550 actual consumers) and seven experiments, the author investigates the effect of music (ambient stimuli), employees’ self-disclosure (verbal social stimuli) and employees’ gazing behavior (nonverbal social stimuli) on consumers’ service encounter experience and approach/avoidance behavior in a retail store. Paper I comprised two experiments, and the aim was to investigate the influence of music on emotions, approach/avoidance behavior. Paper II comprised two experiments, and the aim was to investigate the effect of frontline employees’ personal self-disclosure on consumers’ reciprocal behavior. Paper III comprised three experiments, and the aim was to investigate the influence of employee’s direct eye gaze/ averted eye gaze on consumer emotions, social impression of the frontline employee and encounter satisfaction in different purchase situations. The results in this thesis show that music affects consumers in both positive and negative ways (Paper I). Self-disclosure affects consumers negatively, in such a way that it decreases encounter satisfaction  (Paper II) and, finally, eye gaze affects consumers by regulating both positively – and in some cases also negatively – consumers’ social impression of the frontline employee and their encounter satisfaction (Paper III). The conclusions of this thesis are that both ambient and social stimuli in a servicescape affect consumers’ internal responses, which in turn affect their behavior. Depending on the purchase situation, type of retail, and stimuli, the internal and behavioral responses are different.

Impacto de la resiliencia en pacientes con Artritis Reumatoide

Introducción: La artritis reumatoide (AR) es una enfermedad autoinmune-inflamatoria, que compromete las articulaciones diartrodiales. Tiene una importante repercusión sistémica que incluye la depresión; por lo tanto, tiene un severo impacto sobre la calidad de vida. Es posible que mecanismos de defensa, tales como la resiliencia, puedan amortiguar dicho impacto. Metodología: estudio de corte transversal, multicéntrico (análisis inicial dentro del grupo AR, con muestra no probabilística de 66 pacientes, posterior selección aleatoria simple de 16 pacientes de la muestra inicial y selección de 16 individuos sanos pareados). Posteriormente, se comparó la resiliencia entre sujetos con AR y sujetos sanos, mediante las escalas RS y CD-RISC25. Adicionalmente, se aplicaron las escalas EEAE, EADZ, SF-36 y PANAS. Los datos fueron evaluados mediante el coeficiente de correlación de Spearman, las pruebas U Mann-Whitney, Kruskall-Wallis, T de Student y análisis de varianza. Resultados: se encontraron diferencias significativas en las estrategias de afrontamiento no espirituales en grupos de resiliencia baja, media y alta; diferencias en las medianas de resiliencia en los grupos de depresión por EAZD en los pacientes. No se encontraron resultados significativos en las variables clínicas de la AR ni en la comparación con sujetos sanos. Conclusiones: el uso de estrategias de afrontamiento no espirituales y la ausencia de depresión, se asoció a mayores niveles de resiliencia en los pacientes con AR, por lo cual, los componentes emocionales y cognitivos se asocian a la resiliencia.

Congruencia entre los valores personales y organizacionales y su influencia con el engagement en el trabajo : estudio de caso en una organización del sector salud

La capacidad de gestión del personal se ha convertido en un imperativo para las organizaciones modernas. Por tanto se vienen introduciendo temas como la administración en valores y el engagement de los trabajadores. Sin embargo, la relación entre estos dos aún no ha sido estudiada. El presente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar el efecto que tiene el grado de articulación y reconocimiento de los valores organizacionales y personales y organizacionales sobre los niveles de engagement de los empleados. Para esta investigación se utilizó una muestra constituida por 54 trabajadores de una organización del sector salud de la ciudad de Bogotá a quienes les fueron aplicadas dos escalas: el Inventario para Medir la Articulación entre la Persona y la Organización (Inventario APO) y Utrech Work Engagement Scale (UWES). Como principal resultado se obtuvo que de las tres dimensiones consideradas predictoras del engagement, solamente el reconocimiento de los valores organizacionales tuvo un efecto estadísticamente significativo.

Investigation of the Impacts of Parental Chronic Illness on Youth Caregiving Experiences and Psychosocial Adjustment.

Objective: Parental chronic illness has an impact on several aspects of offspring’s life. Three major impediments to research progress in this field are undeveloped and untested theoretical frameworks, no clear conceptualization of youth caregiving, and no available instrument to assess such construct in Italian. To address these weaknesses, the aims of this PhD dissertation were: (1) to investigate the psychometric properties of the Italian version of the Young Caregiver of Parents Inventory-Revised (YCOPI-R); (2) to empirically examine a model of the effects of parental illness on youth and family functioning innovatively analyzing the role of psychological flexibility; (3) to test a refined conceptualization of youth caregiving. Methods: A total of 501 adolescents aged 11 to 24 (295 young caregivers and 206 young noncaregivers) completed a questionnaire regarding youth caregiving, parental illness, and youth adjustment. In the first study, young caregivers were compared to noncaregivers, while the other studies used only the young carers subgroup. Results: The first study indicated that the Italian version of the YCOPI-R demonstrated sound psychometric and was able to discriminate between young caregivers and noncaregivers. The second study underlined the key protective role of psychological flexibility in shaping youth adjustment and family functioning in the context of parental illness. The third study innovatively clarified the nature of youth caregiving, indicating that it is a tripartite construct related to both positive and negative youth adjustment outcomes. Conclusions. This PhD project drew attention towards youth of chronically ill parents, a segment of the young population which is presently almost completely neglected in Italy by health policies and healthcare providers. This PhD project ultimately shed light into the processes through which parental illness results in detrimental youth outcomes and highlighted avenues for interventions that target empirically supported mechanisms which ameliorate the detrimental effects of parental illness on youth.

Acculturation processes and intergroup relations of adolescents in multicultural societies: the role of family, peer, and school contexts

Acculturation processes and intergroup relations lie at the heart of developing more inclusive social attitudes. Notably, these endeavors are embedded in primary socialization contexts of adolescents, as indicated by developmental and socio-psychological theoretical models reviewed in Chapter 1. Hence, this dissertation investigated how adolescents' acculturation processes and intergroup contact are embedded in family, peer, and school contexts. Accordingly, Chapter 2 indicated the combined effects of the perceived parents' acculturation orientations and classmates' acculturation preferences on adolescents' own acculturation orientations in Italy and Turkey. Chapter 3 showed that adolescents could be classified into one of four latent growth trajectory classes (i.e., ethnic-oriented, national-oriented, dual, and marginalized identities), which could be predicted by social identification with family and classmates. Chapter 4 highlighted that adolescents' cross-ethnic friendships mediated the positive associations of parents' cross-ethnic friendships with adolescents' psychological and social adjustment beyond the positive relationships between parents' and adolescents' friendships. Multiple studies conducted in Chapter 5 confirmed that a newly developed questionnaire (i.e., ICIS-Short Version) is a reliable tool to measure positive and negative contact among ethnic minority and majority adolescents. Chapter 6 revealed that teachers' equal treatment increased positive and decreased negative contact among ethnic minority and majority adolescents. Moreover, Chapter 7 indicated that adolescents’ positive and negative contact in the school context were related over time to higher corresponding positive and negative contact in out-of-school contexts and vice versa, while their positive contact in the school context was linked over time to lower levels of negative contact in the out-of-school contexts. Eventually, Chapter 8 strived to summarize and discuss these findings in light of social inclusivity. Overall, this dissertation tapped into the paramount importance of family, peer, and school contexts to provide a unique resource for adolescents to cope with acculturative challenges that go beyond the normative developmental tasks of adolescence.

The role of technology at school: new perspectives on distance education and cyberbullying

The integration of digital technology in school is a complex phenomenon that affects both teaching and peer relationships. Accordingly, the main aim of this dissertation was to investigate the implementation of distance education among Italian teachers during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze peer relationships concerning cyberbullying and bullying. While the theoretical section provided an overview of the phenomena, four empirical studies were presented. The first one tested a moderated moderation model among 178 secondary teachers on the interactions among perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use of technology and online teaching self-efficacy. Findings showed that each variable significantly predicted the intention to use technology. In addition, a moderation effect of online teaching self-efficacy on perceived usefulness was found. The second study analyzed the differences in factors promoting the integration of digital technology among 357 teachers of different levels and subjects and their positive and negative experiences with distance education. Results revealed several differences in the function of the grade and subjects taught. Moreover, four main themes emerged from the content analysis. The third study investigated the dyadic perception of bullying and cyberbullying among 50 students using the eye-tracker. Findings showed that, despite differences among different kinds of bullying and cyberbullying, the victim and bully were the most observed roles. Finally, the last study tested two multiple mediation models among 563 students on the association between bullying, cyberbullying, and well-being, considering three different variables related to the school context (peer network, teacher support and school connectedness). The results highlighted the importance of peer networks and school connectedness in mediating the association between victimization, cybervictimzation and well-being. Taken together, the findings provided a rich overview of digital technology integration in schools, highlighting positive and negative aspects and its implications for future research and school policies.

Colic surgery in the equine patient: novel biomarkers, postoperative management, microbiotal influence and epidemiological analysis on the italian territory

The aim of this work was to investigate novel diagnostic and prognostic tools, postoperative treatments and epidemiologic factors impacting the outcome of surgical cases of colic. To make a more accurate diagnosis and establish a prognosis, several biomarkers have been investigated in colic patients. In this study we evaluated peritoneal PCT and blood ADMA and SDMA in SIRS positive and negative colic patients to be used as prognostic biomarkers. Our results highlighted the limits of these biomarkers in detection and the lack of specificity. In fact PCT was not detectable and even if ADMA and SDMA significantly increased in colic horses, they are not diagnostic nor prognostic markers for SIRS. Fluid therapy has been described to be crucial for the outcome of colic patients, nevertheless no guidelines have been established. Overhydration was the common practice in post surgical management. We compared cases with an extended fluid therapy protocol and cases with a restricted protocol. Results showed that survival rate and postoperative complications were similar between the groups, despite costs being significantly lower in the restricted group. The possible correlation between intestinal microbiota and colics has gained interest. In this study, cecal and colonic content from horses undergoing laparotomy were collected, and the microbiota analized. Results showed some differences in microbiota between discharged and non discharged patients, and between strangulating and non strangulating types of colic, that might suggest some influence of hind gut microbiota on the disease. A multicentric study involving three veterinary teaching hospitals on the italian territory was conducted investigating factors affecting postoperative survival and complications in colics. Results showed that the influence of age, PCV, TPP, blood lactate, reflux, type of disease, type of lesion, presence of anastomosis, duration of surgery and surgeons, were in line with literature. Amount of crystalloids used could affected the outcome.

Characterization Of Anfo Explosive By High Accuracy Esi(±)-ftms With Forensic Identification On Real Samples By Easi(-)-ms.

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) is an explosive used in many civil applications. In Brazil, ANFO has unfortunately also been used in criminal attacks, mainly in automated teller machine (ATM) explosions. In this paper, we describe a detailed characterization of the ANFO composition and its two main constituents (diesel and a nitrate explosive) using high resolution and accuracy mass spectrometry performed on an FT-ICR-mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI(±)-FTMS) in both the positive and negative ion modes. Via ESI(-)-MS, an ion marker for ANFO was characterized. Using a direct and simple ambient desorption/ionization technique, i.e., easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), in a simpler, lower accuracy but robust single quadrupole mass spectrometer, the ANFO ion marker was directly detected from the surface of banknotes collected from ATM explosion theft.

P16(ink) (4a) Expression As A Potential Marker Of Low-grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Progression.

To evaluate p16(INK) (4a) immunoexpression in CIN1 lesions looking for differences between cases that progress to CIN2/3 maintain CIN1 diagnosis, or spontaneously regress. Seventy-four CIN1 biopsies were studied. In the follow-up, a second biopsy was performed and 28.7% showed no lesion (regression), 37.9% maintained CIN1, and 33.4% progressed to CIN2/3. Immunostaining for p16(INK) (4a) was performed in the first biopsy and it was considered positive when there was strong and diffuse staining of the basal and parabasal layers. Pearson's chi-square was used to compare the groups (p ≤ 0.05). The age of the patients was similar. There was no significant difference in p16(INK) (4a) immunoexpression in the groups, however, statistical analyses showed a significant association when only the progression and regression groups were compared (p = 0.042). Considering p16(INK) (4a) positivity and the progression to CIN2/3, the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values in our cohort were 45%, 75%, 47%, and 94%, respectively. We emphasize that CIN1 with p16(INK) (4a) staining was associated with lesion progression, but the sensitivity was not high. However, the negative predictive value was more reliable (94%) and p16(INK) (4a) may represent a useful biomarker that can identify CIN1 lesions that need particular attention, complementing morphology.