Tracking Alzheimer's disease

Population-based brain mapping provides great insight into the trajectory of aging and dementia, as well as brain changes that normally occur over the human life span.We describe three novel brain mapping techniques, cortical thickness mapping, tensor-based morphometry (TBM), and hippocampal surface modeling, which offer enormous power for measuring disease progression in drug trials, and shed light on the neuroscience of brain degeneration in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI).We report the first time-lapse maps of cortical atrophy spreading dynamically in the living brain, based on averaging data from populations of subjects with Alzheimer's disease and normal subjects imaged longitudinally with MRI. These dynamic sequences show a rapidly advancing wave of cortical atrophy sweeping from limbic and temporal cortices into higher-order association and ultimately primary sensorimotor areas, in a pattern that correlates with cognitive decline. A complementary technique, TBM, reveals the 3D profile of atrophic rates, at each point in the brain. A third technique, hippocampal surface modeling, plots the profile of shape alterations across the hippocampal surface. The three techniques provide moderate to highly automated analyses of images, have been validated on hundreds of scans, and are sensitive to clinically relevant changes in individual patients and groups undergoing different drug treatments. We compare time-lapse maps of AD, MCI, and other dementias, correlate these changes with cognition, and relate them to similar time-lapse maps of childhood development, schizophrenia, and HIV-associated brain degeneration. Strengths and weaknesses of these different imaging measures for basic neuroscience and drug trials are discussed.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood- and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages.

Identity-by-Descent Mapping to Detect Rare Variants Conferring Susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified around 60 common variants associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), but these loci only explain a fraction of the heritability of MS. Some missing heritability may be caused by rare variants that have been suggested to play an important role in the aetiology of complex diseases such as MS. However current genetic and statistical methods for detecting rare variants are expensive and time consuming. 'Population-based linkage analysis' (PBLA) or so called identity-by-descent (IBD) mapping is a novel way to detect rare variants in extant GWAS datasets. We employed BEAGLE fastIBD to search for rare MS variants utilising IBD mapping in a large GWAS dataset of 3,543 cases and 5,898 controls. We identified a genome-wide significant linkage signal on chromosome 19 (LOD = 4.65; p = 1.9×10-6). Network analysis of cases and controls sharing haplotypes on chromosome 19 further strengthened the association as there are more large networks of cases sharing haplotypes than controls. This linkage region includes a cluster of zinc finger genes of unknown function. Analysis of genome wide transcriptome data suggests that genes in this zinc finger cluster may be involved in very early developmental regulation of the CNS. Our study also indicates that BEAGLE fastIBD allowed identification of rare variants in large unrelated population with moderate computational intensity. Even with the development of whole-genome sequencing, IBD mapping still may be a promising way to narrow down the region of interest for sequencing priority. © 2013 Lin et al.

Genome-wide association study for radiographic vertebral fractures: A potential role for the 16q24 BMD locus

Vertebral fracture risk is a heritable complex trait. The aim of this study was to identify genetic susceptibility factors for osteoporotic vertebral fractures applying a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach. The GWAS discovery was based on the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of elderly Dutch individuals aged >55years; and comprising 329 cases and 2666 controls with radiographic scoring (McCloskey-Kanis) and genetic data. Replication of one top-associated SNP was pursued by de-novo genotyping of 15 independent studies across Europe, the United States, and Australia and one Asian study. Radiographic vertebral fracture assessment was performed using McCloskey-Kanis or Genant semi-quantitative definitions. SNPs were analyzed in relation to vertebral fracture using logistic regression models corrected for age and sex. Fixed effects inverse variance and Han-Eskin alternative random effects meta-analyses were applied. Genome-wide significance was set at p<5×10-8. In the discovery, a SNP (rs11645938) on chromosome 16q24 was associated with the risk for vertebral fractures at p=4.6×10-8. However, the association was not significant across 5720 cases and 21,791 controls from 14 studies. Fixed-effects meta-analysis summary estimate was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14; p=0.17), displaying high degree of heterogeneity (I2=57%; Qhet p=0.0006). Under Han-Eskin alternative random effects model the summary effect was significant (p=0.0005). The SNP maps to a region previously found associated with lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS-BMD) in two large meta-analyses from the GEFOS consortium. A false positive association in the GWAS discovery cannot be excluded, yet, the low-powered setting of the discovery and replication settings (appropriate to identify risk effect size >1.25) may still be consistent with an effect size <1.10, more of the type expected in complex traits. Larger effort in studies with standardized phenotype definitions is needed to confirm or reject the involvement of this locus on the risk for vertebral fractures.

'As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me': Contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

OBJECTIVE A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in obtaining and using contraception in Australia is lacking. This paper explores free-text comments about contraception provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 who participated in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH). METHODS The ALSWH is a national population-based cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups, who are surveyed every three years. An initial search identified 1600 comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (31-36 years). The analysis included 305 comments from 289 participants. Factors relating to experiences of barriers to access and optimal contraceptive use were identified and explored using thematic analysis. RESULTS Five themes recurred across the five surveys as women aged: (i) side effects affecting physical and mental health; (ii) lack of information about contraception; (iii) negative experiences with health services; (iv) contraceptive failure; and (v) difficulty with accessing contraception. CONCLUSION Side effects of hormonal contraception and concerns about contraceptive failure influence women's mental and physical health. Many barriers to effective contraception persist throughout women's reproductive lives. Further research is needed into reducing barriers and minimising negative experiences, to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

Comparing multilevel and Bayesian spatial random effects survival models to assess geographical inequalities in colorectal cancer survival: a case study

Background Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in cancer survival. Multilevel models assume independent geographical areas, whereas spatial models explicitly incorporate geographical correlation, often via a conditional autoregressive prior. However the relative merits of these methods for large population-based studies have not been explored. Using a case-study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel and spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival. Methods Multilevel discrete-time and Bayesian spatial survival models were used to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival for a population-based colorectal cancer cohort of 22,727 cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed during 1997–2007 from Queensland, Australia. Results Both approaches were viable on this large dataset, and produced similar estimates of the fixed effects. After adding area-level covariates, the between-area variability in survival using multilevel discrete-time models was no longer significant. Spatial inequalities in survival were also markedly reduced after adjusting for aggregated area-level covariates. Only the multilevel approach however, provided an estimation of the contribution of geographical variation to the total variation in survival between individual patients. Conclusions With little difference observed between the two approaches in the estimation of fixed effects, multilevel models should be favored if there is a clear hierarchical data structure and measuring the independent impact of individual- and area-level effects on survival differences is of primary interest. Bayesian spatial analyses may be preferred if spatial correlation between areas is important and if the priority is to assess small-area variations in survival and map spatial patterns. Both approaches can be readily fitted to geographically enabled survival data from international settings

Comparison of oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell cancer incidence and trends in New Zealand and Queensland, Australia

Background Increases in the incidence of squamous cell oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) have been reported from some countries, but have not been assessed in Australia or New Zealand. This study examines trends for squamous cell OPC and squamous cell oral cavity cancer (OCC) in two similarly sized populations, New Zealand and Queensland, Australia. Methods Incidence data for 1982–2010 were obtained from the respective population-based cancer registries for squamous cell OPC and OCC, by subsite, sex, and age. Time trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were assessed by joinpoint regression. Results The incidence rates of squamous cell OPC in males in New Zealand since 2005 and Queensland since 2006 have increased rapidly, with APCs of 11.9% and 10.6% respectively. The trends were greatest at ages 50–69 and followed more gradual increases previously. In females, rates increased by 2.1% per year in New Zealand from 1982, but by only 0.9% (not significant) in Queensland. In contrast, incidence rates for OCC decreased by 1.2% per year in males in Queensland since 1982, but remained stable for females in Queensland and for both sexes in New Zealand. Overall, incidence rates for both OCC and OPC were substantially higher in Queensland than in New Zealand. In males in both areas, OPC incidence is now higher than that of OCC. Conclusions Incidence rates of squamous cell OPC have increased rapidly in men, while rates of OCC have been stable or reducing, showing distinct etiologies. This has both clinical and public health importance, including implications for the extension of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination to males.

Runs of homozygosity and a cluster of vulvar cancer in young Australian Aboriginal women

Objective A cluster of vulvar cancer exists in young Aboriginal women living in remote communities in Arnhem Land, Australia. A genetic case–control study was undertaken involving 30 cases of invasive vulvar cancer and its precursor lesion, high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN), and 61 controls, matched for age and community of residence. It was hypothesized that this small, isolated population may exhibit increased autozygosity, implicating recessive effects as a possible mechanism for increased susceptibility to vulvar cancer. Methods Genotyping data from saliva samples were used to identify runs of homozygosity (ROH) in order to calculate estimates of genome-wide homozygosity. Results No evidence of an effect of genome-wide homozygosity on vulvar cancer and VIN in East Arnhem women was found, nor was any individual ROH found to be significantly associated with case status. This study found further evidence supporting an association between previous diagnosis of CIN and diagnosis of vulvar cancer or VIN, but found no association with any other medical history variable. Conclusions These findings do not eliminate the possibility of genetic risk factors being involved in this cancer cluster, but rather suggest that alternative analytical strategies and genetic models should be explored.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Estrogen receptor α regulates area-adjusted bone mineral content in late pubertal girls

Context: Whether the action of estrogen in skeletal development depends on estrogen receptor α as encoded by the ESR1 gene is unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish whether the gain in area-adjusted bone mineral content (ABMC) in girls occurs in late puberty and to examine whether the magnitude of this gain is related to ESR1 polymorphisms. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis. Setting: The study involved the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a population-based prospective study. Participants: Participants included 3097 11-yr-olds with DNA samples, dual x-ray absorptiometry measurements, and pubertal stage information. Outcomes: Outcome measures included separate prespecified analyses in boys and girls of the relationship between ABMC derived from total body dual x-ray absorptiometry scans and Tanner stage and of the interaction between ABMC, Tanner stage, and ESR1 polymorphisms. Results: Total body less head and spinal ABMC were higher in girls in Tanner stages 4 and 5, compared with those in Tanner stages 1, 2, and 3. In contrast, height increased throughout puberty. No differences were observed in ABMC according to Tanner stage in boys. For rs2234693 (PvuII) and rs9340799 (XbaI) polymorphisms, differences in spinal ABMC in late puberty were 2-fold greater in girls who were homozygous for the C and G alleles, respectively (P = 0.001). For rs7757956, the difference in total body less head ABMC in late puberty was 50% less in individuals homozygous or heterozygous for the A allele (P = 0.006). Conclusions: Gains in ABMC in late pubertal girls are strongly associated with ESR1 polymorphisms, suggesting that estrogen contributes to this process via an estrogen receptor α-dependent pathway.

Effect of an estrogen receptor-α intron 4 polymorphism on fat mass in 11-year-old children

Context: in the ESR1 gene encoding estrogen receptor (ER)-α may be associated with fat mass in adults. Objectives: The objective of the study was to establish whether ESR1 polymorphisms influence fat mass in childhood. Design: This was a cross-sectional analysis after genotyping of rs9340799, rs2234693, and rs7757956 ESR1 polymorphisms. Setting: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) was a population-based prospective study. Participants: Participants included 3097 11-yr-old children with results for ESR1 genotyping, puberty measures, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry results. Outcomes: Relationships between ESR1 polymorphisms and indices of body composition were measured. Results: The rs7757956 polymorphism was associated with fat mass (P = 0.002). Total body fat mass (adjusted for height) was reduced by 6% in children with TA/AA genotypes, and risk of being overweight (≥85th centile of fat mass) was decreased by 20%. This genetic effect appeared to interact with puberty in girls (P = 0.05 for interaction): in those with the TT genotype, total body fat mass (adjusted for height) was 18% higher in Tanner stages 3-5 vs. stages 1-2; the equivalent difference was 7% in those with TA/AA genotypes. Furthermore, the risk of being overweight was 36% lower in girls with TA/AA genotypes in Tanner stages 3-5, but no reduction was seen in those in stages 1-2. Neither rs9340799 nor rs2234693 polymorphisms were associated with body composition measures. Conclusions: Fat mass in 11-yr-old children was related to the rs7757956 ESR1 polymorphism. This association was strongest in girls in more advanced puberty, in whom the risk of being overweight was reduced by 36% in those with the TA/AA genotype.

Association between glaucoma and at–fault motor vehicle collision involvement among older drivers

Objective To examine the association between glaucoma and motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement among older drivers, including the role of visual field impairment that may underlie any association found. Design A retrospective population-based study Participants A sample of 2,000 licensed drivers aged 70 years and older who reside in north central Alabama. Methods At-fault MVC involvement for five years prior to enrollment was obtained from state records. Three aspects of visual function were measured: habitual binocular distance visual acuity, binocular contrast sensitivity and the binocular driving visual field constructed from combining the monocular visual fields of each eye. Poisson regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main Outcomes Measures At-fault MVC involvement for five years prior to enrollment. Results Drivers with glaucoma (n = 206) had a 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002) times higher MVC rate compared to those without glaucoma after adjusting for age, gender and mental status. Among those with glaucoma, drivers with severe visual field loss had higher MVC rates (RR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.09-4.09, p = 0.027), whereas no significant association was found among those with impaired visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. When the visual field was sub-divided into six regions (upper, lower, left, and right visual fields; horizontal and vertical meridians), we found that impairment in the left, upper or lower visual field was associated with higher MVC rates, and an impaired left visual field showed the highest RR (RR = 3.16, p = 0.001) compared to other regions. However, no significant association was found in deficits in the right side or along the horizontal or vertical meridian. Conclusions A population-based study suggests that older drivers with glaucoma are more likely to have a history of at-fault MVC involvement than those without glaucoma. Impairment in the driving visual field in drivers with glaucoma appears to have an independent association with at-fault MVC involvement, whereas visual acuity and contrast sensitivity impairments do not.

Assistance arrangements and use of services among persons with multiple sclerosis and their caregivers

A large population-based survey of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) and their caregivers was conducted in Ontario using self-completed mailed questionnaires. The objectives included describing assistance arrangements, needs, and use of and satisfaction with services, and comparing perceptions of persons with MS and their caregivers. Response rates were 83% and 72% for those with MS and caregivers, respectively. Based on 697 respondents with MS whose mean age is 48 years, 70% are female, and 75% are married. While 24% experience no mobility restrictions, the majority require some type of aid or a wheelchair for getting around. Among 345 caregivers, who have been providing care for 9 years on average, the majority are spouses. Caregivers report providing more frequent care than do persons with MS report receiving it, particularly for the following activities of daily living: eating, meal preparation, and help with personal finances. Caregivers also report assistance of longer duration per day than do care recipients with MS. Frequency and duration of assistance are positively associated with increased MS symptom severity and reduced mobility. Generally there is no rural-urban disparity in service provision, utilization or satisfaction, and although there is a wide range of service utilization, satisfaction is consistently high. Respite care is rarely used by caregivers. Use of several services is positively associated with increased severity of MS symptoms and reduced mobility. Assistance arrangements and use of services, each from the point of view of persons with MS and their caregivers, must be taken into account in efforts to prolong home care and to postpone early institutionalization of persons with MS.

Coronary calcium scoring: Calcium location needs to be integrated!

Coronary calcium scoring (CCS) has been a topic of great interest lately. In a large population-based study comprising 6,722 patients, Detrano et al. (1) have effectively shown that CCS can be a strong predictor of incident coronary heart disease among different racial groups. Henneman et al. (2) have, however, reported that CCS does not reliably exclude the presence of (significant) atherosclerosis. This topic is quite controversial as there is significant evidence from Detrano's work that higher CCS is associated with an increased risk of acute coronary events. We think that the location of calcium within the coronary arteries should also be considered. Li et al. (3,4) have shown that the position of the calcium in the plaque is a better determinant of plaque vulnerability than the total calcium load. Using a biomechanical model, predicted maximum stress was found to increase by 47.5% when calcium deposits were located in the thin fibrous cap. The presence of calcium deposits in the lipid core or remote from the fibrous cap resulted in no increase in maximum stress. It was also noted that the presence of calcification within the lipid core may even stabilize the plaque. Integration of calcium location in CCS will, therefore, enable better assessment of severity of atherosclerosis and prediction of future cardiovascular events.

Does a twin pregnancy have a greater impact on physical and emotional well-being than a singleton pregnancy?

A prospective, population-based study was conducted to assess the impact of twin pregnancy on a woman's physical and emotional well-being. It compared women's reports of their general health, experience of a range of specific symptoms, and emotional well-being during pregnancy using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The subjects were 147 women expecting twins and 11,061 women expecting a single child who completed questionnaires at both 20 and 32 weeks’gestation as part of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood. Results suggested that women expecting twins experienced poorer physical well-being but not poorer emotional well-being than those expecting a single child, even though a significant association between poor health and emotional well-being was found for the population as a whole. It was suggested that the transitory nature of a twin pregnancy, the “special’ status of a twin pregnancy, greater social support, and modified expectations about health may buffer the effects of poor physical health on emotional well-being in a twin pregnancy. The findings should alert those who care for women expecting twins to the greater physical stress these women may feel.