The National Audit Office uses OR to assess the value for money of public services

Supreme audit institutions (SAIs) have an important role in assessing value for money in the delivery of public services. Assessing value for money necessarily involves assessing counterfactuals: good value for money has been achieved if a policy could not reasonably have been delivered more efficiently, effectively, or economically. Operations research modelling has the potential to help in the assessment of these counterfactuals. However, is such modelling too arcane, complex, and technically burdensome for organisations that, like SAIs, operate in a time- and resource-constrained and politically charged environment? We report on three applications of modelling at the UK's SAI, the National Audit Office, in the context of studies on demand management in tax collection, end-of-life care, and health-care associated infections. In all cases, the models have featured in the audit reports and helped study teams come to a value-for-money judgment. We conclude that OR modelling is indeed a valuable addition to the value-for-money auditor's methodological tool box.

International office investment in global cities: the production of financial space and systemic risk

The paper explores the relationships between UK commercial real estate and regional economic development as a foundation for the analysis of the role of real estate investment in local economic development. Linkages between economic growth, development, real estate performance and investment allocations are documented. Long-run regional property performance is not the product of long-run economic growth, and weakly related to indicators of long-run supply and demand. Changes in regional portfolio weights seem driven by neither market performance nor underlying fundamentals. In the short run, regional investment shifts show no clear leads or lags with market performance.

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

An investigation of thermal comfort adaptation behaviour in office buildings in the UK

Around 40% of total energy consumption in the UK is consumed by creating comfortable indoor environment for occupants. Occupants’ behaviour in terms of achieving thermal comfort could have a significant impact on a building’s energy consumption. Therefore, understanding the interactions of occupants with their buildings would be essential to provide a thermal comfort environment that is less reliance on energy-intensive heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, to meet energysaving and carbon emission targets. This paper presents the findings of a year-long field study conducted in non-air-conditioned office buildings in the UK. Occupants’ adaptive responses in terms of technological and personal dimensions are dynamic processes which could vary with both indoor and outdoor thermal conditions. The adaptive behaviours of occupants in the surveyed building show substantial seasonal and daily variations. Our study shows that non-physical factors such as habit could influence the adaptive responses of occupants. However, occupants sometimes displayed inappropriate adaptive behaviour, which could lead to a misuse of energy. This paper attempts to illustrate how occupants would adapt and interact with their built environment and consequently contribute to development of a guide for future design/refurbishment of buildings and to develop energy management systems for a comfortable built environment.

Is intrinsic energy efficiency reflected in the pricing of office leases?

This paper investigates whether the intrinsic energy efficiency rating of an office building has a significant impact on its rental value. A sample of 817 transactions for offices with Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) in the UK is used to assess whether a pricing differential can be identified, depending on the energy rating. While previous analyses of this topic have typically relied on appraisal-based and/or asking rent data, the dataset used in this research contains actual contract rents as well as information on lease terms. The results indicate a significant rental premium for energy-efficient buildings. However, it is found that this premium appears to be mainly driven by the youngest cohort of state-of-the-art energy-efficient buildings. The results also show that tenants of more energy-efficient buildings tend to pay a lower service charge, but this link appears to be rather weak and limited to newer buildings. Hence, it is argued that the information contained in the EPC is still not fully taken into account in the UK commercial property market with the possible exception of both the highest and the lowest EPC ratings.

Post-occupancy evaluation studies in recently refurbished office building: energy performance and employees' satisfaction

Existing buildings contribute greatly to global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. In the UK, about 18% of carbon emissions are generated by non-domestic buildings; sustainable building refurbishment can play an important role in reducing carbon emissions. This paper looks at the performance of a recently refurbished 5-storey office building in London, in terms of energy consumption as well as occupants’ satisfaction. Pre- and post-occupancy evaluation studies were conducted using online questionnaire surveys and energy consumption evaluation. Results from pre-occupancy and post-occupancy evaluation studies showed that employees, in general, were more satisfied with their work environment at the refurbished building than with that of their previous office. Employees’ self-reported productivity improved after the move to Elms House. These surveys showed a positive relationship between employees’ satisfaction with their work environment and their self-reported productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work. The factor that contributed to increasing employee satisfaction the most was: better use of interior space. Although the refurbishment was a success in terms of reducing energy consumption per m2, the performance gap was almost 3 times greater than that estimated. Unregulated loads, problems with building control, ineffective use of space and occupants’ behaviour are argued to be reasons for this gap.

Post-occupancy studies of an office environment: Energy performance and occupants’ satisfaction

It is generally accepted that the physical workplace environment affects employees’ satisfaction and, consequently, their perceived productivity and well-being. This study investigated whether employee “satisfaction” variables can predict perceived productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work, and if so, to what extent. The study also explored whether limiting employees’ control over their environment could save energy without compromising employees’ satisfaction and perceived productivity. Preoccupancy and post-occupancy evaluation studies were conducted, in terms of both energy consumption and employee perceptions, to make comparisons between a company’s old and current headquarters buildings, both located in the same area of London. The results showed that employees were more satisfied with their work environment at their new HQ, in general, than with that of their previous office. Also, employees’ self-reported productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work improved after the move. It was revealed that the combination of employees’ level of satisfaction with “interior use of space” and “physical conditions” was the best predictor of their perceived productivity, while satisfaction with “indoor facilities” was not a good predictor. In terms of energy performance, although the new HQ’s energy consumption per m2 was significantly less than that of the previous building, there was still a gap between the refurbishment design target and the actual performance of the building. The findings suggest that this gap could be due to a number of factors, including an ineffective use of interior space, and occupants’ behaviour.

Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system

The optimal utilisation of hyper-spectral satellite observations in numerical weather prediction is often inhibited by incorrectly assuming independent interchannel observation errors. However, in order to represent these observation-error covariance structures, an accurate knowledge of the true variances and correlations is needed. This structure is likely to vary with observation type and assimilation system. The work in this article presents the initial results for the estimation of IASI interchannel observation-error correlations when the data are processed in the Met Office one-dimensional (1D-Var) and four-dimensional (4D-Var) variational assimilation systems. The method used to calculate the observation errors is a post-analysis diagnostic which utilises the background and analysis departures from the two systems. The results show significant differences in the source and structure of the observation errors when processed in the two different assimilation systems, but also highlight some common features. When the observations are processed in 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are approximately half the size of the error variances used in the current operational system and are very close in size to the instrument noise, suggesting that this is the main source of error. The errors contain no consistent correlations, with the exception of a handful of spectrally close channels. When the observations are processed in 4D-Var, we again find that the observation errors are being overestimated operationally, but the overestimation is significantly larger for many channels. In contrast to 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are often larger than the instrument noise in 4D-Var. It is postulated that horizontal errors of representation, not seen in 1D-Var, are a significant contributor to the overall error here. Finally, observation errors diagnosed from 4D-Var are found to contain strong, consistent correlation structures for channels sensitive to water vapour and surface properties.

Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model

The observation-error covariance matrix used in data assimilation contains contributions from instrument errors, representativity errors and errors introduced by the approximated observation operator. Forward model errors arise when the observation operator does not correctly model the observations or when observations can resolve spatial scales that the model cannot. Previous work to estimate the observation-error covariance matrix for particular observing instruments has shown that it contains signifcant correlations. In particular, correlations for humidity data are more significant than those for temperature. However it is not known what proportion of these correlations can be attributed to the representativity errors. In this article we apply an existing method for calculating representativity error, previously applied to an idealised system, to NWP data. We calculate horizontal errors of representativity for temperature and humidity using data from the Met Office high-resolution UK variable resolution model. Our results show that errors of representativity are correlated and more significant for specific humidity than temperature. We also find that representativity error varies with height. This suggests that the assimilation scheme may be improved if these errors are explicitly included in a data assimilation scheme. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Parameterization of contrails in the UK Met Office Climate Model

Persistent contrails are believed to currently have a relatively small but significant positive radiative forcing on climate. With air travel predicted to continue its rapid growth over the coming years, the contrail warming effect on climate is expected to increase. Nevertheless, there remains a high level of uncertainty in the current estimates of contrail radiative forcing. Contrail formation depends mostly on the aircraft flying in cold and moist enough air masses. Most studies to date have relied on simple parameterizations using averaged meteorological conditions. In this paper we take into account the short‐term variability in background cloudiness by developing an on‐line contrail parameterization for the UK Met Office climate model. With this parameterization, we estimate that for the air traffic of year 2002 the global mean annual linear contrail coverage was approximately 0.11%. Assuming a global mean contrail optical depth of 0.2 or smaller and assuming hexagonal ice crystals, the corresponding contrail radiative forcing was calculated to be less than 10 mW m−2 in all‐sky conditions. We find that the natural cloud masking effect on contrails may be significantly higher than previously believed. This new result is explained by the fact that contrails seem to preferentially form in cloudy conditions, which ameliorates their overall climate impact by approximately 40%.

Nonlocal office investors: anchored by their markets and impaired by their distance

Nonlocal investors purchase and sell investment property in a distant metropolitan area. In this study, we identify capital value underperformance for nonlocal investors on both sides of the transaction, when they purchase and when they sell. The commercial real estate transactions data include a national sample of office property occurring in more than 100 U.S. markets. Using propensity-score matched sample to control for selection bias, we find that nonlocal investors overpay on the purchase by an estimated 13.8 % and sell at an estimated 7 % discount. These disadvantages relative to local investors expand with the geographic distance separating investor and asset. Nonlocal investors fundamentally overvalue similar assets sold to each other relative to assets transacted between locals, and are less patient as sellers. The positive bias in overpayment is directly tied to office rent differentials between the asset and investor markets.

A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards

A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards is an instructional performance piece based on a corporate manual from 1960. The pamphlet is focused on the time necessary for the accomplishment of minute labour procedures in the office, from the depressing and releasing of typewriter keys to the opening and closing of filing cabinet drawers. In the performance, seven costumed performers represent the different levels of management and employment while performing the actions described in the guide, accompanied by a live musical score. There has been much discussion of the changes to work in the west following the decline of post-Fordist service sector jobs. These increasingly emphasise the specificity of employees’ knowledge and cognitive skill. However, this greater flexibility and creativity at work has been accompanied by an opposite trajectory. The proletarisation of white collar work has given rise to more bureaucracy, target assessment and control for workers in previously looser creative professions, from academia to the arts. The midcentury office is the meeting point of these cultures, where the assembly line efficiency management of the factory meets the quantifying control of the knowledge economy. A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards explores the survival of one regime into its successor following the lines of combined and uneven development that have turned the emancipatory promise of immaterial labour into the perma-temp hell of the cognitariat. The movement is accompanied by a score of guitar, bass and drums, the componenets of the rock ‘n’ roll music that rose from the car factories of the motor city and the cotton fields of the southern states to represent the same junction of expression and control.

The Impact of office productivity cloud computing on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Cloud computing is usually regarded as being energy efficient and thus emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) than traditional forms of computing. When the energy consumption of Microsoft’s cloud computing Office 365 (O365) and traditional Office 2010 (O2010) software suites were tested and modeled, some cloud services were found to consume more energy than the traditional form. The developed model in this research took into consideration the energy consumption at the three main stages of data transmission; data center, network, and end user device. Comparable products from each suite were selected and activities were defined for each product to represent a different computing type. Microsoft provided highly confidential data for the data center stage, while the networking and user device stages were measured directly. A new measurement and software apportionment approach was defined and utilized allowing the power consumption of cloud services to be directly measured for the user device stage. Results indicated that cloud computing is more energy efficient for Excel and Outlook which consumed less energy and emitted less GHG than the standalone counterpart. The power consumption of the cloud based Outlook (8%) and Excel (17%) was lower than their traditional counterparts. However, the power consumption of the cloud version of Word was 17% higher than its traditional equivalent. A third mixed access method was also measured for Word which emitted 5% more GHG than the traditional version. It is evident that cloud computing may not provide a unified way forward to reduce energy consumption and GHG. Direct conversion from the standalone package into the cloud provision platform can now consider energy and GHG emissions at the software development and cloud service design stage using the methods described in this research.