CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Designing Agent-Oriented Systems by Analysing Agent Interactions

We propose a preliminary methodology for agent-oriented software engineering based on the idea of agent interaction analysis. This approach uses interactions between undetermined agents as the primary component of analysis and design. Agents as a basis for software engineering are useful because they provide a powerful and intuitive abstraction which can increase the comprehensiblity of a complex design. The paper describes a process by which the designer can derive the interactions that can occur in a system satisfying the given requirements and use them to design the structure of an agent-based system, including the identification of the agents themselves. We suggest that this approach has the flexibility necessary to provide agent-oriented designs for open and complex applications, and has value for future maintenance and extension of these systems.

Provenance in Agent-mediated Healthcare Systems

Agent-oriented cooperation techniques and standardized electronic healthcare record exchange protocols can be used to combine information regarding different facets of a therapy received by a patient from different healthcare providers at different locations. Provenance is an innovative approach to trace events in complex distributed processes, dependencies between such events, and associated decisions by human actors. We focus on three aspects of provenance in agent-mediated healthcare systems: first, we define the provenance concept and show how it can be applied to agent-mediated healthcare applications; second, we investigate and provide a method for independent and autonomous healthcare agents to document the processes they are involved in without directly interacting with each other; and third, we show that this method solves the privacy issues of provenance in agent-mediated healthcare systems.

Towards a Monitoring Framework for Agent-Based Contract Systems

The behaviours of autonomous agents may deviate from those deemed to be for the good of the societal systems of which they are a part. Norms have therefore been proposed as a means to regulate agent behaviours in open and dynamic systems, and may be encoded in electronic contracts in order to specify the obliged, permitted and prohibited behaviours of agents that are signatories to such contracts. Enactment and management of electronic contracts thus enables the use of regulatory mechanisms to ensure that agent behaviours comply with the encoded norms. To facilitate such mechanisms requires monitoring in order to detect and explain violation of norms. In this paper we propose a framework for monitoring that is to be implemented and integrated into a suite of contract enactment and management tools. The framework adopts a non-intrusive approach to monitoring, whereby the states of a contract with respect to its contained norms can be inferred on the basis of messages exchanged. Specifically, the framework deploys agents that observe messages sent between contract signatories, where these messages correspond to agent behaviours and therefore indicate whether norms are, or are in danger of, being violated.

A Framework for Monitoring Agent-Based Normative Systems

The behaviours of autonomous agents may deviate from those deemed to be for the good of the societal systems of which they are a part. Norms have therefore been proposed as a means to regulate agent behaviours in open and dynamic systems, where these norms specify the obliged, permitted and prohibited behaviours of agents. Regulation can effectively be achieved through use of enforcement mechanisms that result in a net loss of utility for an agent in cases where the agent's behaviour fails to comply with the norms. Recognition of compliance is thus crucial for achieving regulation. In this paper we propose a generic architecture for observation of agent behaviours, and recognition of these behaviours as constituting, or counting as, compliance or violation. The architecture deploys monitors that receive inputs from observers, and processes these inputs together with transition network representations of individual norms. In this way, monitors determine the fulfillment or violation status of norms. The paper also describes a proof of concept implementation and deployment of monitors in electronic contracting environments.

A Framework for Monitoring Agent-Based Normative Systems

The behaviours of autonomous agents may deviate from those deemed to be for the good of the societal systems of which they are a part. Norms have therefore been proposed as a means to regulate agent behaviours in open and dynamic systems, where these norms specify the obliged, permitted and prohibited behaviours of agents. Regulation can effectively be achieved through use of enforcement mechanisms that result in a net loss of utility for an agent in cases where the agent’s behaviour fails to comply with the norms. Recognition of compliance is thus crucial for achieving regulation. In this paper we propose a generic architecture for observation of agent behaviours, and recognition of these behaviours as constituting, or counting as, compliance or violation. The architecture deploys monitors that receive inputs from observers, and processes these inputs together with transition network representations of individual norms. In this way, monitors determine the fulfillment or violation status of norms. The paper also describes a proof of concept implementation and deployment of monitors in electronic contracting environments.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Neural network based on adaptive resonance theory with continuous training for multi-configuration transient stability analysis of electric power systems

This work presents a methodology to analyze electric power systems transient stability for first swing using a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory (ART) architecture, called Euclidean ARTMAP neural network. The ART architectures present plasticity and stability characteristics, which are very important for the training and to execute the analysis in a fast way. The Euclidean ARTMAP version provides more accurate and faster solutions, when compared to the fuzzy ARTMAP configuration. Three steps are necessary for the network working, training, analysis and continuous training. The training step requires much effort (processing) while the analysis is effectuated almost without computational effort. The proposed network allows approaching several topologies of the electric system at the same time; therefore it is an alternative for real time transient stability of electric power systems. To illustrate the proposed neural network an application is presented for a multi-machine electric power systems composed of 10 synchronous machines, 45 buses and 73 transmission lines. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of adhesive systems on the pullout strength of a fiberglass-reinforced composite post system in bovine teeth

Purpose: To evaluate the pullout strength of a glass fiber-reinforced composite post (glass FRC) cemented with three different adhesive systems and one resin cement. The null hypothesis was that pullout strengths yielded by the adhesive systems are similar. Materials and Methods: Thirty bovine teeth were selected. The size of the specimens was standardized at 16 mm by sectioning off the coronal portion and part of the root. The specimens were divided into three groups, according to the adhesive system, which were applied following the manufacturers' instructions: G1, ScotchBond Multi-Purpose Plus; G2, Single Bond; G3, Tyrian SPE/One-Step Plus. The glass FRCs (Reforpost) were etched with 37% H3PO4 for 1 min and silanized (Porcelain Primer). Thereafter, they were cemented with the dual resin cement En-Force. The specimens were stored for 24 h, attached to an adapted device, and submitted to the pullout test in a universal testing machine (1 mm/min). The data were submitted to the one-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (α = 0.05). Results: G1 (30.2 ± 5.8 Kgf) displayed the highest pullout strength (p < 0.001) when compared to G2 (18.6 ± 5.8 Kgf) and G3 (14.3 ± 5.8 Kgf), which were statistically similar. Analysis of the specimens revealed that all failures occurred between the adhesive system and the root dentin (pullout of the post cement), regardless of group. Conclusion: The multiple-bottle, total-etch adhesive system provided higher pullout strength of the glass FRC when compared to the single-bottle, total-etch, and single-step self-etching adhesive systems. The null hypothesis was rejected (p < 0.001).

The benefits of soft sensor and multi-rate control for the implementation of wireless networked control systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)