959 resultados para model predictive control
Resumo:
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.
Resumo:
Chagas disease transmission can be effetively interrupted by insecticidal control of its triatomine bug vectors. We present here a simple model comparing the costs and benefits of such a programme, designed to eliminate domestic populations of Triatoma infestans throughout its known area of distribution over the seven southernmost countries of Latin America. The model has been simplified to require only four financial estimates relating to the unit cost of housing spraying and benefits due to avoidance of premature death in the acute phase of the disease, avoidance of supportive treatment and care in the chronic phase of the disease, and avoidance of corrective digestive and cardiac surgery. Exceptfor these direct medical costs, al other potential benefits have been ignored. Nevertheless, the model shows that the direct financial benefits of such a programme would far outweigh the costs, and the project would support a remarkably high internal rate of return under the least optimistic estimates.
Resumo:
Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.
Resumo:
Mice from the majority of inbred strains are resistant to infection by Leishmania major, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of macrophages in the mammalian host. In contrast, mice from BALB strains are unable to control infection and develop progressive disease. In this model of infection, genetically determined resistance and susceptibility have been clearly shown to result from the appearance of parasite-specific CD4+ T helper 1 or T helper 2 cells, respectively. This murine model of infection is considered as one of the best experimental systems for the study of the mechanisms operating in vivo at the initiation of polarised T helper 1 and T helper 2 cell maturation. Among the several factors influencing Th cell development, cytokines themselves critically regulate this process. The results accumulated during the last years have clarified some aspects of the role played by cytokines in Th cell differentiation. They are providing critical information that may ultimately lead to the rational devise of means by which to tailor immune responses to the effector functions that are most efficient in preventing and/or controlling infections with pathogens.
Resumo:
1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.
Resumo:
AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.
Resumo:
L-Type Ca(2+) and K(ATP) Channels in Pacing-Induced Cardioprotection. AIMS: The L-type Ca(2+) channel, the sarcolemmal (sarcK(ATP)), and mitochondrial K(ATP) (mitoK(ATP)) channels are involved in myocardial preconditioning. We aimed at determining to what extent these channels can also participate in pacing-induced cardioprotection. METHODS: Hearts of 4-day-old chick embryos were paced in ovo during 12 hour using asynchronous intermittent ventricular stimulation at 110% of the intrinsic rate. Sham operated and paced hearts were then submitted in vitro to anoxia (30 minutes) and reoxygenation (60 minutes). These hearts were exposed to L-type Ca(2+) channel agonist Bay-K-8644 (BAY-K) or blocker verapamil, nonselective K(ATP) channel antagonist glibenclamide (GLIB), mitoK(ATP) channel agonist diazoxide (DIAZO), or antagonist 5-hydroxydecanoate. Electrocardiogram, electromechanical delay (EMD) reflecting excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling, and contractility were determined. RESULTS: Under normoxia, heart rate, QT duration, conduction, EMD, and ventricular shortening were similar in sham and paced hearts. During reoxygenation, arrhythmias ceased earlier and ventricular EMD recovered faster in paced hearts than in sham hearts. In sham hearts, BAY-K (but not verapamil), DIAZO (but not 5-hydroxydecanoate) or GLIB accelerated recovery of ventricular EMD, reproducing the pacing-induced protection. By contrast, none of these agents further ameliorated recovery of the paced hearts. CONCLUSION: The protective effect of chronic asynchronous pacing at near physiological rate on ventricular E-C coupling appears to be associated with subtle activation of L-type Ca(2+) channel, inhibition of sarcK(ATP) channel, and/or opening of mitoK(ATP) channel.
Resumo:
The subject of this conference reflects the scientific community's interest in seeking to understand the complex causal web whose various social, economic, and biological components interact in the production and reproduction of schistosomiasis and its control in relation to community participation. From the onset, the author stresses the impossibility of dealing separately with community participation, as if social components were just one more "weapon" in the arsenal for schistosomiasis control. This study begins with a brief historical review of the 71 years of control activities with this endemic disease, stressing the enormous efforts and huge expenditures in this field vis-à-vis the limited results, despite the extraordinary technological development of specific, classical control inputs such as new treatment drugs and molluscicides. The article then discusses the various strategies used in control programs, emphasizing ideological consistencies and contradictions. Interactions at the macro and micro levels are discussed, as are the determinants and risk factors involved in producing the disease's endemicity. Unequal occupation of space leaves the segregated portion of the population exposed to extremely favorable conditions for transmission of the disease. This raises the issue of how to control an endemic disease which is so closely linked to the way of life imposed on the population. The study challenges the classical control model and suggests an alternative model now undergoing medium-term investigation in the States of Espirito Santo, and Pernambuco, Brazil. The author concludes that we do not need new strategies, but a new control model, contrary to the prevailing classical model in both concept and practice. From the conceptual point of view, the new model mentioned above is different from others in that schistosomiasis control is seen from a social perspective stressing the population's accumulated knowledge in addition to the building of shared knowledge. The model's praxis has the following characteristics: (1) it is integrated with and financed by research agencies and health services; (2) it operates at the local health services level; (3) use of molluscicides has been eliminated; (4) emphasis is given to individual medical treatment and improvement of sanitary conditions.
Resumo:
Les piles de combustible permeten la transformació eficient de l’energia química de certs combustibles a energia elèctrica a través d’un procés electroquímic. De les diferents tecnologies de piles de combustible, les piles de combustible de tipus PEM són les més competitives i tenen una gran varietat d’aplicacions. No obstant, han de ser alimentades únicament per hidrogen. Per altra banda, l’etanol, un combustible interessant en el marc dels combustibles renovables, és una possible font d’hidrogen. Aquest treball estudia la reformació d’etanol per a l’obtenció d’hidrogen per a alimentar piles de combustible PEM. Només existeixen algunes publicacions que tractin l’obtenció d’hidrogen a partir d’etanol, i aquestes no inclouen l’estudi dinàmic del sistema. Els objectius del treball són el modelat i l’estudi dinàmic de reformadors d’etanol de baixa temperatura. Concretament, proposa un model dinàmic d’un reformador catalític d’etanol amb vapor basat en un catalitzador de cobalt. Aquesta reformació permet obtenir valors alts d’eficiència i valors òptims de monòxid de carboni que evitaran l’enverinament d’una la pila de combustible de tipus PEM. El model, no lineal, es basa en la cinètica obtinguda de diferents assaigs de laboratori. El reformador modelat opera en tres etapes: deshidrogenació d’etanol a acetaldehid i hidrogen, reformat amb vapor d’acetaldehid, i la reacció WGS (Water Gas Shift). El treball també estudia la sensibilitat i controlabilitat del sistema, caracteritzant així el sistema que caldrà controlar. L’anàlisi de controlabilitat es realitza sobre la resposta de dinàmica ràpida obtinguda del balanç de massa del reformador. El model no lineal és linealitzat amb la finalitat d’aplicar eines d’anàlisi com RGA, CN i MRI. El treball ofereix la informació necessària per a avaluar la possible implementació en un laboratori de piles de combustibles PEM alimentades per hidrogen provinent d’un reformador d’etanol.
Resumo:
This paper compares the predation pressure that ducks and chickens exert on triatomines. For the tests, these birds were placed in individual boxes together with a known number of Triatoma infestans and left to interact from 6 p.m. till the next morning, involving a long lasting period of complete darkness limited by two short-term periods of semi-darkness. There was a shelter which could prevent the bugs from being predated. The number of live and dead triatomines was recorded, considering missing bugs as predated by the birds. Ducks exhibited a greater predatory activity than chickens, that could be due to a long term active period at night while chickens sleep motionless from sunset to dawn. Surviving triatomines that had fed on chickens outnumbered those fed on ducks suggesting that these were less accessible to the triatomine biting. If ducks are better than chickens to detect and eat bugs and to interfere with their feeding in the field, an increase in duck number might help to diminish triatomine density. Further research is needed to determine the feasibility of application of these experimental results.
Resumo:
The objective of this work is to present a multitechnique approach to define the geometry, the kinematics, and the failure mechanism of a retrogressive large landslide (upper part of the La Valette landslide, South French Alps) by the combination of airborne and terrestrial laser scanning data and ground-based seismic tomography data. The advantage of combining different methods is to constrain the geometrical and failure mechanism models by integrating different sources of information. Because of an important point density at the ground surface (4. 1 points m?2), a small laser footprint (0.09 m) and an accurate three-dimensional positioning (0.07 m), airborne laser scanning data are adapted as a source of information to analyze morphological structures at the surface. Seismic tomography surveys (P-wave and S-wave velocities) may highlight the presence of low-seismic-velocity zones that characterize the presence of dense fracture networks at the subsurface. The surface displacements measured from the terrestrial laser scanning data over a period of 2 years (May 2008?May 2010) allow one to quantify the landslide activity at the direct vicinity of the identified discontinuities. An important subsidence of the crown area with an average subsidence rate of 3.07 m?year?1 is determined. The displacement directions indicate that the retrogression is controlled structurally by the preexisting discontinuities. A conceptual structural model is proposed to explain the failure mechanism and the retrogressive evolution of the main scarp. Uphill, the crown area is affected by planar sliding included in a deeper wedge failure system constrained by two preexisting fractures. Downhill, the landslide body acts as a buttress for the upper part. Consequently, the progression of the landslide body downhill allows the development of dip-slope failures, and coherent blocks start sliding along planar discontinuities. The volume of the failed mass in the crown area is estimated at 500,000 m3 with the sloping local base level method.
Resumo:
Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major cause of peripheral neuropathy. More than 220 million people worldwide suffer from type 2 DM, which will, in approximately half of them, lead to the development of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. While of significant medical importance, the pathophysiological changes present in DPN are still poorly understood. To get more insight into DPN associated with type 2 DM, we decided to use the rodent model of this form of diabetes, the db/db mice. During the in-vivo conduction velocity studies on these animals, we observed the presence of multiple spiking followed by a single stimulation. This prompted us to evaluate the excitability properties of db/db peripheral nerves. Ex-vivo electrophysiological evaluation revealed a significant increase in the excitability of db/db sciatic nerves. While the shape and kinetics of the compound action potential of db/db nerves were the same as for control nerves, we observed an increase in the after-hyperpolarization phase (AHP) under diabetic conditions. Using pharmacological inhibitors we demonstrated that both the peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (PNH) and the increased AHP were mostly mediated by the decreased activity of Kv1-channels. Importantly, we corroborated these data at the molecular level. We observed a strong reduction of Kv1.2 channel presence in the juxtaparanodal regions of teased fibers in db/db mice as compared to control mice. Quantification of the amount of both Kv1.2 isoforms in DRG neurons and in the endoneurial compartment of peripheral nerve by Western blotting revealed that less mature Kv1.2 was integrated into the axonal membranes at the juxtaparanodes. Our observation that peripheral nerve hyperexcitability present in db/db mice is at least in part a consequence of changes in potassium channel distribution suggests that the same mechanism also mediates PNH in diabetic patients. ∗Current address: Department of Physiology, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Resumo:
Current parallel applications running on clusters require the use of an interconnection network to perform communications among all computing nodes available. Imbalance of communications can produce network congestion, reducing throughput and increasing latency, degrading the overall system performance. On the other hand, parallel applications running on these networks posses representative stages which allow their characterization, as well as repetitive behavior that can be identified on the basis of this characterization. This work presents the Predictive and Distributed Routing Balancing (PR-DRB), a new method developed to gradually control network congestion, based on paths expansion, traffic distribution and effective traffic load, in order to maintain low latency values. PR-DRB monitors messages latencies on intermediate routers, makes decisions about alternative paths and record communication pattern information encountered during congestion situation. Based on the concept of applications repetitiveness, best solution recorded are reapplied when saved communication pattern re-appears. Traffic congestion experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the method, and improvements were observed.
Resumo:
An experimental model of murine chromoblastomycosis and in vitro tests with Fonsecaea pedrosoi were used to test the sensitivity of this fungus to three different antimycotics. The experimental model was standardized in BALB/c mice inoculated intraperitoneally with a 10(6) CFU/ml suspension of a F. pedrosoi isolate. Clinical infection was evident after 5 days of inoculation. Three groups of 27 mice each were used in the experiment. One group was treated with ketoconazole (KTZ), another with itraconazole (ITZ) and the other with saperconazole (SPZ). Antimycotic therapy was continued for 21 days. The control group consisted of 40 mice which were inoculated, but not treated. Infection was documented by macroscopic and microscopic examination of affected tissue in addition to culture of tissue macerates. Minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) and minimal fungicidal concentrations (MFC) for the F. pedrosoi strain used were done. The in vitro results showed that SPZ was the most active with MIC 0.01 mg/ml and MFC 0.1 mg/ml, followed by ITZ. SPZ was also the most effective in vivo since 63% of the treated animals (p=0.01) showed a curative effect after the observation period. We concluded that SPZ had the best in vitro and in vivo activity against F. pedrosoi.
Resumo:
Cell elongation during seedling development is antagonistically regulated by light and gibberellins (GAs). Light induces photomorphogenesis, leading to inhibition of hypocotyl growth, whereas GAs promote etiolated growth, characterized by increased hypocotyl elongation. The mechanism underlying this antagonistic interaction remains unclear. Here we report on the central role of the Arabidopsis thaliana nuclear transcription factor PIF4 (encoded by PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR 4) in the positive control of genes mediating cell elongation and show that this factor is negatively regulated by the light photoreceptor phyB (ref. 4) and by DELLA proteins that have a key repressor function in GA signalling. Our results demonstrate that PIF4 is destabilized by phyB in the light and that DELLAs block PIF4 transcriptional activity by binding the DNA-recognition domain of this factor. We show that GAs abrogate such repression by promoting DELLA destabilization, and therefore cause a concomitant accumulation of free PIF4 in the nucleus. Consistent with this model, intermediate hypocotyl lengths were observed in transgenic plants over-accumulating both DELLAs and PIF4. Destabilization of this factor by phyB, together with its inactivation by DELLAs, constitutes a protein interaction framework that explains how plants integrate both light and GA signals to optimize growth and development in response to changing environments.