Tangled Webs : Using Bayesian Networks in the Fight Against Infection

Bayesian networks (BNs) provide a statistical modelling framework which is ideally suited for modelling the many factors and components of complex problems such as healthcare-acquired infections. The methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) organism is particularly troublesome since it is resistant to standard treatments for Staph infections. Overcrowding and understa�ng are believed to increase infection transmission rates and also to inhibit the effectiveness of disease control measures. Clearly the mechanisms behind MRSA transmission and containment are very complicated and control strategies may only be e�ective when used in combination. BNs are growing in popularity in general and in medical sciences in particular. A recent Current Content search of the number of published BN journal articles showed a fi�ve fold increase in general and a six fold increase in medical and veterinary science from 2000 to 2009. This chapter introduces the reader to Bayesian network (BN) modelling and an iterative modelling approach to build and test the BN created to investigate the possible role of high bed occupancy on transmission of MRSA while simultaneously taking into account other risk factors.

An outbreak of salmonellosis linked to a marine turtle

In September 1998, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in a coastal Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory over a seven day period. An investigation was conducted by the Center for Disease Control, Territory Health Services. Thirty-six cases were detected and 17% (n=6) were hospitalized. Salmonella chester was isolated from eight of nine stool specimens. Sixty-two percent of cases interviewed (n=28) reported consumption of a green turtle (Chelonia mydas) within a median of 24 hours prior to onset of illness. Of the remainder, all but two were contacts of other cases. Salmonella chester was isolated from a section of partially cooked turtle meat. There are no previous published reports of salmonellosis associated with consumption of sea turtles despite them being a popular food source in coastal communities in the Pacific.

An outbreak of salmonellosis linked to a marine turtle

On 18 September 1998 the Centre for Disease Control (CDC), Darwin was notified of an outbreak of gastroenteritis predominantly affecting adults in a Top End coastal community. There had been no previous presentations to the community clinic in the month of September with vomiting or diarrhoea. On 14 September, a green turtle (Chledonia mydas) was cooked and distributed throughout the community. Water collected from a water hole near the community (known as the aerator) was used as drinking water at the cook site and to cook the meat. In addition, there were reports that kava, a plant derived tranquilliser,1 had been consumed the night before using water from the same source. An investigation was conducted to determine the aetiology and source and to instigate prevention and control measures.

Enterprise social networks : a business model perspective

Enterprise Social Networks continue to be adopted by organisations looking to increase collaboration between employees, customers and industry partners. Offering a varied range of features and functionality, this technology can be distinguished by the underlying business models that providers of this software deploy. This study identifies and describes the different business models through an analysis of leading Enterprise Social Networks: Yammer, Chatter, SharePoint, Connections, Jive, Facebook and Twitter. A key contribution of this research is the identification of consumer and corporate models as extreme approaches. These findings align well with research on the adoption of Enterprise Social Networks that has discussed bottom-up and top-down approaches. Of specific interest are hybrid models that wrap a corporate model within a consumer model and may, therefore, provide synergies on both models. From a broader perspective, this can be seen as the merging of the corporate and consumer markets for IT products and services.

Multiscale investigation of microfilament networks disruption in living cells

Actin is the most abundantly distributed protein in living cells which plays critical roles in the cell interior force generation and transmission. The fracture mechanism of microfilament networks, whose principle component is actin, would provide insights which can contribute to the understandings of self-protective characters of cytoskeleton. In this study, molecular simulations are conducted to investigate the molecular mechanisms of disruption of microfilament networks from the viewpoint of biophysics. By employing a coarse-grained (CG) model of actin filament networks, we focused on the ultimate strength and crack growth mode of microfilament networks that have dependency on the crack length. It can be found that, the fracture mechanism of microfilament network has dependency on the structural properties of microfilament networks. The structure flaws marginally change the strength of microfilament networks which would explain the self-protective characters of cytoskeleton.

Predicting voltage unbalance impacts of plug-in electric vehicles penetration in residential low-voltage distribution networks

Plug-in electric vehicles will soon be connected to residential distribution networks in high quantities and will add to already overburdened residential feeders. However, as battery technology improves, plug-in electric vehicles will also be able to support networks as small distributed generation units by transferring the energy stored in their battery into the grid. Even though the increase in the plug-in electric vehicle connection is gradual, their connection points and charging/discharging levels are random. Therefore, such single-phase bidirectional power flows can have an adverse effect on the voltage unbalance of a three-phase distribution network. In this article, a voltage unbalance sensitivity analysis based on charging/discharging levels and the connection point of plug-in electric vehicles in a residential low-voltage distribution network is presented. Due to the many uncertainties in plug-in electric vehicle ratings and connection points and the network load, a Monte Carlo-based stochastic analysis is developed to predict voltage unbalance in the network in the presence of plug-in electric vehicles. A failure index is introduced to demonstrate the probability of non-standard voltage unbalance in the network due to plug-in electric vehicles.

Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management

This overview article for the special series “Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management” reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.

Prickly pear land : transnational networks in settler Australia

The story of prickly pear in Australia is usually told as a tale of triumphant scientific intervention into an environmental disaster. Instead, this unarticle considers it as a transnational network in order to better understand the myriad of elements that made this event so important. Through this methodology emerges the complex nature of prickly pear land that included people, places, ideas, rhetoric and objects that traveled from all over the world into settler Australia.

Flexible design of decoupling and matching networks for two strongly coupled antennas

The flexible design of decoupling and matching networks for coupled antennas is introduced. The network includes three parts: circuits for impedance transformation, an element for odd-mode decoupling and conventional matching networks. It is found that all three parts are determined by one parameter of the ABCD matrix of the impedance transformation circuit. Thus a large variety of circuits with different element values can be used for decoupling which relaxes the practical design constraints.

An efficient proactive route maintenance process for reliable data transmissions in sensor networks

For industrial wireless sensor networks, maintaining the routing path for a high packet delivery ratio is one of the key objectives in network operations. It is important to both provide the high data delivery rate at the sink node and guarantee a timely delivery of the data packet at the sink node. Most proactive routing protocols for sensor networks are based on simple periodic updates to distribute the routing information. A faulty link causes packet loss and retransmission at the source until periodic route update packets are issued and the link has been identified as broken. We propose a new proactive route maintenance process where periodic update is backed-up with a secondary layer of local updates repeating with shorter periods for timely discovery of broken links. Proposed route maintenance scheme improves reliability of the network by decreasing the packet loss due to delayed identification of broken links. We show by simulation that proposed mechanism behaves better than the existing popular routing protocols (AODV, AOMDV and DSDV) in terms of end-to-end delay, routing overhead, packet reception ratio.

Estimating benefits of energy storage for aggregate storage applications in electricity distribution networks in Queensland

Electric Energy Storage (EES) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing the need for costly upgrades in distribution networks in Queensland (QLD). However, It is expected, the full potential for storage for distribution upgrade deferral cannot be fully realized due to high cost of EES. On the other hand, EES used for distribution deferral application can support a variety of complementary storage applications such as energy price arbitrage, time of use (TOU) energy cost reduction, wholesale electricity market ancillary services, and transmission upgrade deferral. Aggregation of benefits of these complementary storage applications would have the potential for increasing the amount of EES that may be financially attractive to defer distribution network augmentation in QLD. In this context, this paper analyzes distribution upgrade deferral, energy price arbitrage, TOU energy cost reduction, and integrated solar PV-storage benefits of EES devices in QLD.

Social networks in arid Australia : a review of concepts and evidence

Arid systems are markedly different from non-arid systems. This distinctiveness extends to arid-social networks, by which we mean social networks which are influenced by the suite of factors driving arid and semi-arid regions. Neither the process of how aridity interacts with social structure, nor what happens as a result of this interaction, is adequately understood. This paper postulates three relative characteristics which make arid-social networks distinct: that they are tightly bound, are hierarchical in structure and, hence, prone to power abuses, and contain a relatively higher proportion of weak links, making them reactive to crisis. These ideas were modified from workshop discussions during 2006. Although they are neither tested nor presented as strong beliefs, they are based on the anecdotal observations of arid-system scientists with many years of experience. This paper does not test the ideas, but rather examines them in the context of five arid-social network case studies with the aim of hypotheses building. Our cases are networks related to pastoralism, Aboriginal outstations, the ‘Far West Coast Aboriginal Enterprise Network’ and natural resources in both the Lake-Eyre basin and the Murray–Darling catchment. Our cases highlight that (1) social networks do not have clear boundaries, and that how participants perceive their network boundaries may differ from what network data imply, (2) although network structures are important determinants of system behaviour, the role of participants as individuals is still pivotal, (3) and while in certain arid cases weak links are engaged in crisis, the exact structure of all weak links in terms of how they place participants in relation to other communities is what matters.

The “virtual” producer in the recording studio : media networks in long distance peripheral performances

The producer has for many years been a central agent in recording studio sessions; the validation of this role was, in many ways, related to the producer’s physical presence in the studio, to a greater or lesser extent. However, improvements in the speed of digital networks have allowed studio sessions to be produced long-distance, in real-time, through communication programs such as Skype or REDIS. How does this impact on the role of the producer, a “nexus between the creative inspiration of the artist, the technology of the recording studio, and the commercial aspirations of the record company” (Howlett 2012)? From observations of a studio recording session in Lisbon produced through Skype from New York, this article focuses on the role of the producer in these relatively new recording contexts involving long distance media networks. Methodology involved participant observation carried out in Estúdios Namouche in Lisbon (where the session took place), as part of doctoral research. This ethnographic approach also included a number of semi-directed ethnographic interviews of the different actors in this scenario—musicians, recording engineers, composers and producers. As a theoretical framework, the research of De Zutter and Sawyer on Distributed Creativity is used, as the recording studio sets an example of “a cognitive system where […] tasks are not accomplished by separate individuals, but rather through the interactions of those individuals” (DeZutter 2009:4). Therefore, creativity often emerges as a result of this interaction.