Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.

Empirical evidence of bias in treatment effect estimates in controlled trials with different interventions and outcomes: meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the association of inadequate or unclear allocation concealment and lack of blinding with biased estimates of intervention effects varies with the nature of the intervention or outcome. DESIGN: Combined analysis of data from three meta-epidemiological studies based on collections of meta-analyses. DATA SOURCES: 146 meta-analyses including 1346 trials examining a wide range of interventions and outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ratios of odds ratios quantifying the degree of bias associated with inadequate or unclear allocation concealment, and lack of blinding, for trials with different types of intervention and outcome. A ratio of odds ratios <1 implies that inadequately concealed or non-blinded trials exaggerate intervention effect estimates. RESULTS: In trials with subjective outcomes effect estimates were exaggerated when there was inadequate or unclear allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.82)) or lack of blinding (0.75 (0.61 to 0.93)). In contrast, there was little evidence of bias in trials with objective outcomes: ratios of odds ratios 0.91 (0.80 to 1.03) for inadequate or unclear allocation concealment and 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10) for lack of blinding. There was little evidence for a difference between trials of drug and non-drug interventions. Except for trials with all cause mortality as the outcome, the magnitude of bias varied between meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The average bias associated with defects in the conduct of randomised trials varies with the type of outcome. Systematic reviewers should routinely assess the risk of bias in the results of trials, and should report meta-analyses restricted to trials at low risk of bias either as the primary analysis or in conjunction with less restrictive analyses.

Glomerular filtration rate estimates decrease during high altitude expedition but increase with Lake Louise acute mountain sickness scores

AIM: Acute mountain sickness (AMS) can result in pulmonary and cerebral oedema with overperfusion of microvascular beds, elevated hydrostatic capillary pressure, capillary leakage and consequent oedema as pathogenetic mechanisms. Data on changes in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at altitudes above 5000 m are very limited. METHODS: Thirty-four healthy mountaineers, who were randomized to two acclimatization protocols, undertook an expedition on Muztagh Ata Mountain (7549 m) in China. Tests were performed at five altitudes: Zurich pre-expedition (PE, 450 m), base camp (BC, 4497 m), Camp 1 (C1, 5533 m), Camp 2 (C2, 6265 m) and Camp 3 (C3, 6865 m). Cystatin C- and creatinine-based (Mayo Clinic quadratic equation) GFR estimates (eGFR) were assessed together with Lake Louise AMS score and other tests. RESULTS: eGFR significantly decreased from PE to BC (P < 0.01). However, when analysing at changes between BC and C3, only cystatin C-based estimates indicated a significant decrease in GFR (P = 0.02). There was a linear decrease in eGFR from PE to C3, with a decrease of approx. 3.1 mL min(-1) 1.73 m(-2) per 1000 m increase in altitude. No differences between eGFR of the two groups with different acclimatization protocols could be observed. There was a significant association between eGFR and haematocrit (P = 0.01), whereas no significant association between eGFR and aldosterone, renin and brain natriuretic peptide could be observed. Finally, higher AMS scores were significantly associated with higher eGFR (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Renal function declines when ascending from low to high altitude. Cystatin C-based eGFR decreases during ascent in high altitude expedition but increases with AMS scores. For individuals with eGFR <40 mL min(-1) 1.73 m(-2), caution may be necessary when planning trips to high altitude above 4500 m above sea level.

Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.