Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

Episodic Future Thinking in 4-Year-Olds, Poster Symposium: The who, what, where and when of episodic foresight development

The ability to project oneself into the future to pre-experience an event is referred to as episodic future thinking (Atance & O’Neill, 2001). Only a relatively small number of studies have attempted to measure this ability in pre-school aged children (Atance & Meltzoff, 2005; Busby & Suddendorf, 2005ab, 2010; Russell, Alexis, & Clayton, 2010).Perhaps the most successful method is that used by Russell et al (2010). In this task, 3- to 5-year-olds played a game of blow football on one end of a table. After this children were asked to select tools that would enable them to play the same game tomorrow from the opposite, unreachable, side of the table. Results indicated that only 5-year-olds were capable of selecting the right objects for future use more often than would be expected by chance. Above-chance performance was observed in this older group even though most children failed the task because there was a low probability of selecting the correct 2 objects from a choice of 6 by chance.This study aimed to identify the age at which children begin to consistently pass this type of task. Three different tasks were designed in which children played a game on one side of a table, and then were asked to choose a tool to play a similar game on the other side of the table the next day. For example, children used a toy fishing rod to catch magnetic fish on one side of the table; playing the same game from the other side of the table required a different type of fishing rod. At test, children chose between just 2 objects: the tool they had already used, which would not work on the other side, and a different tool that they had not used before but which was suitable for the other side of the table. Experiment 1: Forty-eight 4-year-olds (M = 53.6 months, SD = 2.9) took part. These children were assigned to one of two conditions: a control condition (present-self) where the key test questions were asked in the present tense and an experimental condition (future-self) where the questions were in the future tense. Surprisingly, the results showed that both groups of 4-year-olds selected the correct tool at above chance levels (Table 1 shows the mean number of correct answers out of three). However, the children could see the apparatus when they answered the test questions and so perhaps answered them correctly without imagining the future. Experiment 2: Twenty-four 4-year-olds (M = 53.7, SD = 3.1) participated. Pre-schoolers in this study experienced one condition: future-self looking-away. In this condition children were asked to turn their backs to the games when answering the test questions, which were in the future tense. Children again performed above chance levels on all three games.Contrary to the findings of Russell et al. (2010), our results suggest that episodic future thinking skills could be present in 4-year-olds, assuming that this is what is measured by the tasks. Table 1. Mean number of correct answers across the three games in Experiments 1 and 2Experimental Conditions (N=24 in each condition)Mean CorrectStandardDeviationStatistical SignificanceExp. 1 (present-self, look) – 2 items2.750.68p < 0.001Exp. 1 (future-self, look) – 2 items 2.790.42p < 0.001Exp. 2 (future-self, away) – 2 items 2.330.64p < 0.001Exp. 3 (future-self away) – 3 items1.210.98p = 0.157

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Future(s) Perfect: uchronian mapping as a research and visualisation tool in the fringes of the Olympic Park

This article explores and discusses the development of a mapping tool inspired by Charles Renouvier’s philosophical novel Uchronie (l’utopie dans l’histoire) (1876). The article explains the research and design process of creating a uchronian map of a formerly empty site in Fish Island in East London and describes a participatory workshop titled ‘Hackney Wick and Fish Island: Future Perfect(s)’ (25 April 2015) that used uchronian mapping to explore past and future development imaginaries of two sites in the neighbourhood. Given a uchronian mapping template, a protocol and a dossier of planning and other documents, participants were encouraged to develop their own uchronian map of each site, and in doing so test and question the process of visualizing ‘what was supposed to happen’, ‘what actually happened’ and ‘what could have happened’. The article concludes with a reflection on uchronian mapping as a tool for researching, analysing and making visible urban alternatives.

Women of the future : gender, technology, and cyborgs in Frank Herbert’s dune

Cette thèse défend les mérites d’une lecture cyborgienne de l’oeuvre de science-fiction de Frank Herbert, Dune, où la vision particulière des sciences et technologies nous permet d’interpréter plusieurs personnages en tant que réitération Nouvelle Vague du cyborg. Publié en 1965, Dune introduit des personnages féminins atypiques pour cette époque compte tenu de leurs attributs tels qu’une capacité intellectuelle accrue, une imposante puissance de combat et une immunité manifeste contre la faiblesse émotionnelle. Cependant, le roman reste ambivalent en ce qui concerne ces femmes : en dépit de leurs qualités admirables, elles sont d’autre part caractérisées par des stéréotypes régressifs, exposants une sexualité instinctive, qui les confinent tout au mieux aux rôles de mère, maitresse ou épouse. Finalement, dans le roman, elles finissent par jouer le rôle du méchant. Cette caractérisation se rapproche beaucoup de celle du cyborg femelle qui est d’usage courant dans les productions de science fiction pour le grand public des décennies plus récentes. Par conséquent, cette thèse défend qu’une lecture cyborgienne de Dune complète et accroisse une analyse sexospécifique, car cette approche comporte une théorisation essentielle des réactions à l’égard de la technologie qui, selon Evans, sont entretissées dans la réaction patriarcale de ce roman à l’égard des femmes. Bien que ces créatures fictives ne soient pas encore communes à l’époque de la rédaction de Dune, Jessica et certains autres personnages du roman peuvent néanmoins être considérés comme exemples primitifs des cyborgs, parce qu’ils incarnent la science et la technologie de leur culture et qu’ils possèdent d’autres éléments typiques du cyborg. L’hypothèse propose que la représentation des femmes dans Dune ne découle pas seulement de l’attrait pour le chauvinisme ou la misogynie, mais qu’elle est en fait grandement influencée par la peur de la technologie qui est transposée sur la femme comme c’est couramment le cas dans la littérature cyborg subséquente. Ainsi, ce roman annonce le futur sous-genre cyborg de la science-fiction.

The use of motivational interviews by nurses to promote health behaviors in adolescents: a scoping review protocol

Adolescents - defined as young people between 10 and 19 years of age1 - are, in general, a relatively healthy segment of the population.2 However, the developmental changes that take place during adolescence may affect their subsequent risk for diseases and for a variety of health-related behaviors. In fact, early onset of preventable health problems (e.g. obesity, malnutrition, STDs) and the engagement in health risk behaviors (e.g., sedentary life style, excessive alcohol consumption, unprotected sex) during adolescence, are likely to put them at greater risk for physical and mental health problems at a later stage in life. Moreover, health related problems and health risk behaviors may disrupt adolescents' physical and cognitive development and therefore may affect their ability to think and act in relation to decisions about their health in the future.1 In summary, health-related behaviors in adolescence, apart from their influence on the continuum of "health-disease", they also have the potential to influence future behaviors. In fact, several studies have shown that past behaviors are good predictors of future behaviors .3,4 Thus, promoting healthy practices during adolescence and taking measures to better protect young people from health risks are essential for the prevention of health problems in adulthood.5 According to the World Health Organization, the main problems affecting young people include mental health problems (such as behavioral disorders, eating disorders, suicide, anxiety or depression), the use of substances (illegal substances, alcohol and tobacco), interpersonal violence, nutrition (a proper nutrition consists of healthy eating habits and physical exercise), unintentional injuries (which are a leading cause of death and disability among young people, with road traffic injuries accounting for about 700 deaths per day), sexual and reproductive health (for example, risky sexual behaviors, early pregnancy and childbirth) and HIV (resulting from sexual transmission and drug injection).5,6 On the other hand, the number of children and youth with chronic health conditions has increased dramatically in the past four decades7 as larger numbers of chronically ill children survive beyond the age of 10.8 Despite the lack of data on adolescents' health making it difficult to determine the prevalence of chronic illnesses in this age group9, it is known that one in ten adolescents suffers from a chronic condition worldwide.10 In fact, national population based studies from Western countries show that 20-30% of teenagers have a chronic illness, defined as one that lasts longer than six months.8 The most prevalent chronic illness among adolescents is asthma and the one with the highest incidence is diabetes mellitus, particularly type II.9 Traditionally, healthcare professionals have been mainly investing in health education activities, through the transmission of knowledge with a view to creating habits, customs and behaviors, and promoting healthy lifestyles. However, empowering people does not only consist of giving them the right information11 , i.e. good information is not enough to cause people to make changes.12 The motivation or desire to change unhealthy behaviors and habits depends on many factors, namely intrinsic motivation, control over personal decisions, self-confidence and perception of effectiveness, personal ambivalence, and individualized assistance.12 Many professionals assume that supplying knowledge is sufficient for behavioral changes; however, even very good advice often fails to generate behavioral change. After all, people continue to engage in unhealthy behaviors despite clearly knowing what they should do and how to change. "What is lacking is the motivation to apply that knowledge".13, p.1233 In fact, behavioral change is a complex phenomenon with multiple determinants that also includes motivational variables. It is associated with ambivalent processes expressed in the dilemma between keeping the current status and moving on to new ways of acting. For example, telling adolescents that if they keep on engaging in a certain behavior, they are increasing the risk of developing a long-term condition such as cardiovascular disease, stroke or diabetes is rarely enough to trigger the desired behavioral change; people are more likely to change when they believe that the change is really effective and that they are able to implement it.12 Therefore, it is essential to provide specific training for "healthcare professionals to master motivational techniques, avoid confrontation with the users, and facilitate behavioral changes".14 In this context, motivating patients to make behavioral changes is also an important nursing task where change in lifestyle is a major element of patients' treatment and preventive interventions.15 One of the nurse's goals is to help improve a patient's health or help them to manage existing health conditions. Once nurses are in a position where they have to focus on accomplishing tasks and telling patients what needs to be accomplished16, the role of the nurse is expanding even more into the use of motivational strategies.17 MI is bringing nurses back to therapeutic communication and moving them closer to successful health promotion and disease management, by promoting behavior change and empowering their patients. As the nursing profession evolves, MI is seen as a challenge and the basis of nurse's interactions with individuals, families and communities.16, 17 In the same way, MI may be taken as an essential tool in the provision of nursing care to adolescents, being itself a workspace with possible therapeutic effects regarding problems, clarification of doubts, and development of skills.18 In fact, MI may be particularly applicable in work with adolescents because of their specific developmental stage. Adolescents attempt to establish their own autonomy and identity while struggling with social interactions and moral issues, which leads to ambivalence.19 Consistent with the developmental challenges during adolescence, "MI explicitly honors autonomy, people's right and irrevocable ability to decide about their own behavior"20 while allowing the person to explore possibilities for change of risky or maladaptive behaviours.19 MI can be defined as a directive, client-centred counselling style for eliciting behavior change by helping clients to explore and resolve ambivalence. It is most centrally defined not by technique but by its spirit as a facilitative style of interpersonal relationship.21 It is a set of strategies and techniques widely used in clinical practice based on the transtheoretical model of change. The Stages of Change model describes five stages of readiness—precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance—and provides a framework for understanding behavior change.22 The MI has been widely tested and applied in different areas, such as modification of addictive behaviors, interventions with offenders in the context of justice, eating disorders, promotion of therapeutic adherence among chronic patients, promotion of learning in school settings or intervention with adolescents at risk.18,23 In general, clinical practice has been adopting the perspective of motivation as something relatively immutable, i.e., the adolescent is either motivated for change/treatment and, in these conditions, the professional's role is to help him/her, or the adolescent is not motivated and then change/treatment is not feasible. Alternatively the theoretical model underlying the MI technique postulates that the individual's adherence to change/treatment depends on his/her motivation, which can change throughout the therapeutic intervention. As several studies found positive results for effects of MI24-26 and its use by health professionals is encouraged23,27 nurses may play an important role in patients' process of change. As nurses have a crucial role in clinical contexts, they can facilitate the process of ending risk behaviors and/or adopting positive health behaviors through some motivational techniques, namely with adolescents. A considerable number of systematic reviews about MI already exist pointing to some benefits of its use in the treatment of a broad range of behavioral problems and diseases.13,28,29 Some of the current reviews focus on examining the effectiveness of MI for adolescents with diverse health risks/problems 30-32. However, to date there are no reviews that present and assess the evidence for the use of nurse-led MI in adolescents. Therefore, we have little knowledge of what works for whom (which adolescent subpopulation) under what circumstances (in which setting, for what problem) in relation to motivational interviewing by nurses. There is a clear need for scoping or mapping the use of MI by nurses with adolescents to identify evidence gaps and to inform opportunities for future development in nursing practice. On the other hand, information regarding nurse-led implemented and evaluated interventions, techniques and/or strategies used, contexts of application and adolescents subpopulation groups is dispersed in the literature33-36 which impedes the formulation of precise questions about the effectiveness of those interventions conducted by nurses and therefore the realization of a systematic review. In other words, it is known that different kind of motivational interventions have been implemented in different contexts by nurses, however does not exist a map about all the motivational techniques and/or strategies used. Furthermore the literature does not clarify which is the role of nurses at cross professional motivational intervention implemented programs and finally the outcomes and evaluation of interventions are unclear. Thus, the practical implication of this mapping will be clarifying all these aspects. Without this clarification is not possible to proceed to the realization of a systematic review about the effectiveness of the use of motivational interviews by nurses to promote health behaviors in adolescents, in a particular context and/or health risk behavior; or regarding the effectiveness of certain technique and/or strategy of MI. Consequently, there are important questions about the nature of the evidence in this area that need to be answered before formulating a precise question of effectiveness. This scoping review aims to respond to these questions. An initial search of the JBI Database of Systematic Reviews & Implementation Reports, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, , Database of promoting health effectiveness reviews (DoPHER), The Campbell Library, Medline and CINAHL, has revealed that currently there is no Scoping Review (published or in progress) on the subject. In this context, this scoping review will examine and map the published and unpublished research around the use of MI by nurses implemented and evaluated to promote health behaviors in adolescents; to establish its current extent, range and nature and identify its feasibility, outcomes and gaps in the evidence defining research priorities in this field. This scoping review will be informed by the JBI methodology37 that suggests a five stage methodological framework for conducting scoping reviews which includes: identifying the research question, searching for relevant studies, selecting studies, charting data, collating, summarizing and reporting the results.

Can We Change the Future by Predicting It? Presented in special Session II at the Forty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the Upper Mississippi River Conservation Committee, St. James hotel Red Wing, Minnesota, March 10-12, 1992

issued December 1, 1993

Biological control of weeds in the 22 Pacific island countries and territories: current status and future prospects

Biological control of introduced weeds in the 22 Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) began in 1911, with the lantana seed-feeding fly introduced into Fiji and New Caledonia from Hawaii. To date, a total of 62 agents have been deliberately introduced into the PICTs to control 21 weed species in 17 countries. A further two agents have spread naturally into the region. The general impact of the 36 biocontrol agents now established in the PICTs ranges from none to complete control of their target weed(s). Fiji has been most active in weed biocontrol, releasing 30 agents against 11 weed species. Papua New Guinea, Guam, and the Federated States of Micronesia have also been very active in weed biocontrol. For some weeds such as Lantana camara, agents have been released widely, and can now be found in 15 of the 21 PICTs in which the weed occurs. However, agents for other commonly found weeds, such as Sida acuta, have been released in only a few countries in which the weed is present. There are many safe and effective biocontrol agents already in the Pacific that could be utilised more widely, and highly effective agents that have been released elsewhere in the world that could be introduced following some additional host specificity testing. This paper discusses the current status of biological control efforts against introduced weeds in the 22 PICTs and reviews options that could be considered by countries wishing to initiate weed biological control programmes.

Priorities for future intensive care research in the UK: results of a James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership.

This James Lind Alliance (JLA) Priority Setting Partnership aimed to identify and prioritise unanswered questions about adult intensive care that are important to people who have been critically ill, their families, and the health professionals who care for them. Consensus techniques (modified Delphi and Nominal Group) were used to generate suggestions using online and postal surveys. Following verification and iterative editorial review, research topics were constructed from these suggestions. These topics were presented in a second online and postal survey for rating. A Nominal Group of 21 clinicians, patients and family representatives subsequently met to rank the most important research topics and produce a prioritised list. The project was coordinated by a representative Steering Group and independently overseen by the JLA. The initial survey and review of the literature generated over 1,300 suggestions. Preliminary editing and verification permitted us to encapsulate these suggestions within 151 research topics. Iterative review by members of the Steering Group produced 37 topic statements, subsequently rated by participants. Using the mode to determine importance, 19 topics were presented to the group from which a ‘top three’ intensive care research priorities were identified and a further nine topics were prioritised. By applying and adapting the JLA methodology to focus on an area of care rather than to a single disease, we have provided a means to ensure that patients, their families and professionals materially contribute to the prioritisation of intensive care research in the UK.

Factors affecting current and future treeline locations and dynamics in the Peruvian Andes

The elevational distributions of tropical treelines are thought to be determined by temperature, and are predicted to shift upslope in response to global warming. In contrast to this hypothesis, global-scale studies have shown that only half of all studied treelines are shifting upslope. Understanding how treelines will respond to climate change has important implications for global biodiversity, especially in the tropics, because tropical treelines generally represent the upper-elevation distribution limit of the hyper-diverse cloudforest ecosystem. In Chapter 1, I introduce the idea that grasslands found above tropical treelines may represent a potential grass ceiling which forest species cannot cross or invade. I use an extensive literature review to outline potential mechanisms which may be acting to stabilize treeline and prevent forest expansion into high-elevation grasslands. In Chapters 2-4, I begin to explore these potential mechanisms through the use of observational and experimental methods. In Chapter 2, I show that there are significant numbers of seedlings occurring just outside of the treeline in the open grasslands and that seed rain is unlikely to limit seedling recruitment above treeline. I also show that microclimates outside of the closed-canopy cloudforest are highly variable and that mean temperatures are likely a poor explanation of tropical treeline elevations. In Chapter 3, I show that juvenile trees maintain freezing resistances similar to adults, but nighttime radiative cooling near the ground in the open grassland results in lower cold temperatures relative to the free atmosphere, exposing seedlings of some species growing above treeline to lethal frost events. In Chapter 4, I use a large-scale seedling transplant experiment to test the effects of mean temperature, absolute low temperature and shade on transplanted seedling survival. I find that increasing mean temperature negatively affects seedling survival of two treeline species while benefiting another. In addition, low temperature extremes and the presence of shade also appear to be important factors affecting seedling survival above tropical treelines. This work demonstrates that mean temperature is a poor predictor of tropical treelines and that temperature extremes, especially low temperatures, and non-climatic variables should be included in predictions of current and future tropical treeline dynamics.^