Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Sequence analysis and distribution in Salmonella enterica serovars of IS3-like elements

The genome of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis was shown to possess three IS3-like insertion elements, designated IS1230A, B and C, and each was cloned and their respective deoxynucleotide sequences determined. Mutations in elements IS1230A and B resulted in frameshifts in the open reading frames that encoded a putative transposase to be inactive. IS1230C was truncated at nucleotide 774 relative to IS1230B and therefore did not possess the 3' terminal inverted repeat. The three IS1230 derivatives were closely related to each other based on nucleotide sequence similarity. IS1230A was located adjacent to the sef operon encoding SEF14 fimbriae located at minute 97 of the genome of S. Enteritidis. IS1230B was located adjacent to the umuDC operon at minute 42.5 on the genome, itself located near to one terminus of an 815-kb genome inversion of S. Enteritidis relative to S. Typhimurium. IS1230C was located next to attB, the bacteriophage P22 attachment site, and proB, encoding gamma-glutamyl phosphate reductase. A truncated 3' remnant of IS1230, designated IS1230T, was identified in a clinical isolate of S. Typhimurium DT193 strain 2391. This element was located next to attB adjacent to which were bacteriophage P22-like sequences. Southern hybridisation of total genomic DNA from eighteen phage types of S. Enteritidis and eighteen definitive types of S. Typhimurium showed similar, if not identical, restriction fragment profiles in the respective serovars when probed with IS1230A.

The role of prophage-like elements in the diversity of Salmonella enterica serovars

The Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi CT18 (S. Typhi) chromosome harbours seven distinct prophage-like elements, some of which may encode functional bacteriophages. In silico analyses were used to investigate these regions in S. Typhi CT18, and ultimately compare these integrated bacteriophages against 40 other Salmonella isolates using DNA microarray technology. S. Typhi CT18 contains prophages that show similarity to the lambda, Mu, P2 and P4 bacteriophage families. When compared to other S. Typhi isolates, these elements were generally conserved, supporting a clonal origin of this serovar. However, distinct variation was detected within a broad range of Salmonella serovars; many of the prophage regions are predicted to be specific to S. Typhi. Some of the P2 family prophage analysed have the potential to carry non-essential "cargo" genes within the hyper-variable tail region, an observation that suggests that these bacteriophage may confer a level of specialisation on their host. Lysogenic bacteriophages therefore play a crucial role in the generation of genetic diversity within S. enterica. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holm Oak (Quercus ilex L.) canopy as interceptor of airborne trace elements and their accumulation in the litter and topsoil

We investigated the role of urban Holm Oak (Quercus ilex L.) trees as airborne metal accumulators and metals' environmental fate. Analyses confirmed Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn as main contaminants in Siena's urban environment; only Pb concentrations decreased significantly compared to earlier surveys. Additionally, we determined chemical composition of tree leaves, litter and topsoil (underneath/outside tree crown) in urban and extra-urban oak stands. Most notably, litter in urban samples collected outside the canopy had significantly lower concentrations of organic matter and higher concentrations of Pb, Cu, Cd and Zn than litter collected underneath the canopy. There was a greater metals' accumulation in topsoil, in samples collected under the tree canopy and especially near the trunk ('stemflow area'). Thus, in urban ecosystems the Holm Oak stands likely increase the soil capability to bind metals.

Facilities management carbon footprints: an audit of critical elements of management and reporting

Concern for the environmental impact of organizations’ activities has led to the recognition and demand for organizations to manage and report on their carbon footprint. However, there is no limit as to the areas of carbon footprints required in such annual environmental reports. To deliver improvements in the quality of carbon footprint management and reporting, there is a need to identify the main elements of carbon footprint strategy that can be endorsed, supported and encouraged by facility managers. The study investigates carbon footprint elements managed and reported upon by facility manager in the UK. Drawing on a questionnaire survey of 256 facility managers in the UK, the key elements of carbon footprints identified in carbon footprint reports are examined. The findings indicate that the main elements are building energy consumption, waste disposal and water consumption. Business travel in terms of using public transport, air travel and company cars are also recognized as important targets and objectives for the carbon footprint strategy of several FM (facilities management) organizations.

Distribution and availability of trace elements in municipal solid waste composts

Trace element contamination is one of the main problems linked to the quality of compost, especially when it is produced from urban wastes, which can lead to high levels of some potentially toxic elements such as Cu, Pb or Zn. In this work, the distribution and bioavailability of five elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni) were studied in five Spanish composts obtained from different feedstocks (municipal solid waste, garden trimmings, sewage sludge and mixed manure). The five composts showed high total concentrations of these elements, which in some cases limited their commercialization due to legal imperatives. First, a physical fractionation of the composts was performed, and the five elements were determined in each size fraction. Their availability was assessed by several methods of extraction (water, CaCl2–DTPA, the PBET extract, the TCLP extract, and sodium pyrophosphate), and their chemical distribution was assessed using the BCR sequential extraction procedure. The results showed that the finer fractions were enriched with the elements studied, and that Cu, Pb and Zn were the most potentially problematic ones, due to both their high total concentrations and availability. The partition into the BCR fractions was different for each element, but the differences between composts were scarce. Pb was evenly distributed among the four fractions defined in the BCR (soluble, oxidizable, reducible and residual); Cu was mainly found in the oxidizable fraction, linked to organic matter, and Zn was mainly associated to the reducible fraction (iron oxides), while Ni and Cr were mainly present almost exclusively in the residual fraction. It was not possible to establish a univocal relation between trace elements availability and their BCR fractionation. Given the differences existing for the availability and distribution of these elements, which not always were related to their total concentrations, we think that legal limits should consider availability, in order to achieve a more realistic assessment of the risks linked to compost use.

Good machine performance in Turing’s imitation game

In this paper we consider transcripts which originated from a practical series of Turing’s Imitation Game which was held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. In some cases the tests involved a 3-participant simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities whereas others were the result of a direct 2-participant interaction. Each of the transcripts considered here resulted in a human interrogator being fooled, by a machine, into concluding that they had been conversing with a human. Particular features of the conversation are highlighted, successful ploys on the part of each machine discussed and likely reasons for the interrogator being fooled are considered. Subsequent feedback from the interrogators involved is also included

Game-theoretic aspects of international mergers: Theory and case studies

This paper studies the exclusion of potential competition as a motivating factor for international mergers. We propose a simple game-theoretic framework in order to discuss the conditions under which mergers that prevent reciprocal domestic competition will occur. Our analysis highlights the shortcomings of antitrust policies based on pre-merger/post-merger concentration comparisons. A review of several recent European cases suggests that actual merger policy often fails to consider potential competition.

An experiment on subjective game valuations

We report experimental results on a prisoners' dilemma implemented in a way which allows us to elicit incentive−compatible valuations of the game. We test the hypothesis that players' valuations coincide with their Nash equilibrium earnings. Our results offer significantly less support for this hypothesis than for the prediction of Dominant Strategy (DS) play.

The Kasparov-World Game

Kasparov-World, initiated by Microsoft and also sponsored by First USA, was a novel correspondence game played on the World Wide Web at one ply per day. This was the first time that any group had attempted to form on the Web and then solve shared problems against fixed, short-term deadlines. The first author first became involved in his role as a Web consultant, observing the dynamics and effectiveness of the group. These are fully described, together with observations on the technological contribution and the second author's post-hoc computation of some relevant Endgame Tables.

The rulB gene of plasmid pWW0 is a hotspot for the site-specific insertion of integron-like elements found in the chromosomes of environmental Pseudomonas fluorescens group bacteria

The rulAB operon of Pseudomonas spp. confers fitness traits on the host and has been suggested to be a hotspot for insertion of mobile elements that carry avirulence genes. Here, for the first time, we show that rulB on plasmid pWW0 is a hotspot for the active site-specific integration of related integron-like elements (ILEs) found in six environmental pseudomonads (strains FH1–FH6). Integration into rulB on pWW0 occurred at position 6488 generating a 3 bp direct repeat. ILEs from FH1 and FH5 were 9403 bp in length and contained eight open reading frames (ORFs), while the ILE from FH4 was 16 233 bp in length and contained 16 ORFs. In all three ILEs, the first 5.1 kb (containing ORFs 1–4) were structurally conserved and contained three predicted site-specific recombinases/integrases and a tetR homologue. Downstream of these resided ORFs of the ‘variable side’ with structural and sequence similarity to those encoding survival traits on the fitness enhancing plasmid pGRT1 (ILEFH1 and ILEFH5) and the NR-II virulence region of genomic island PAGI-5 (ILEFH4). Collectively, these ILEs share features with the previously described type III protein secretion system effector ILEs and are considered important to host survival and transfer of fitness enhancing and (a)virulence genes between bacteria.

Cost function for sub-agent elements in multi-agent energy management system

Distributed generation plays a key role in reducing CO2 emissions and losses in transmission of power. However, due to the nature of renewable resources, distributed generation requires suitable control strategies to assure reliability and optimality for the grid. Multi-agent systems are perfect candidates for providing distributed control of distributed generation stations as well as providing reliability and flexibility for the grid integration. The proposed multi-agent energy management system consists of single-type agents who control one or more gird entities, which are represented as generic sub-agent elements. The agent applies one control algorithm across all elements and uses a cost function to evaluate the suitability of the element as a supplier. The behavior set by the agent's user defines which parameters of an element have greater weight in the cost function, which allows the user to specify the preference on suppliers dynamically. This study shows the ability of the multi-agent energy management system to select suppliers according to the selection behavior given by the user. The optimality of the supplier for the required demand is ensured by the cost function based on the parameters of the element.

Mobile elements drive recombination hotspots in the core genome of Staphylococcus aureus

Horizontal gene transfer is an important driver of bacterial evolution, but genetic exchange in the core genome of clonal species, including the major pathogen Staphylococcus aureus, is incompletely understood. Here we reveal widespread homologous recombination in S. aureus at the species level, in contrast to its near-complete absence between closely related strains. We discover a patchwork of hotspots and coldspots at fine scales falling against a backdrop of broad-scale trends in rate variation. Over megabases, homoplasy rates fluctuate 1.9-fold, peaking towards the origin-of-replication. Over kilobases, we find core recombination hotspots of up to 2.5-fold enrichment situated near fault lines in the genome associated with mobile elements. The strongest hotspots include regions flanking conjugative transposon ICE6013, the staphylococcal cassette chromosome (SCC) and genomic island νSaα. Mobile element-driven core genome transfer represents an opportunity for adaptation and challenges our understanding of the recombination landscape in predominantly clonal pathogens, with important implications for genotype–phenotype mapping.

Impact of game bird release on the Adonis blue butterfly Polyommatus bellargus (Lepidoptera Lycaenidae) on chalk grassland

Polyommatus bellargus is a priority species of butterfly in the UK as a result of its scarcity and the rate of population decline over the last few years. In the UK, the species is associated with chalk grassland on hot, south-facing slopes suitable for the growth of the food plant Hippocrepis comosa. Shooting game birds is a popular pastime in the UK. Over 40 million game birds, principally Phasianus colchicus and Alectoris rufa, are bred and released into the countryside each year for shooting interests. There is a concern that the release of such a large number of non-native birds has an adverse effect on native wildlife. A study was carried out over a period of 3 years out to examine whether there was any evidence that A. rufa released into chalk grassland habitat negatively affects populations of P. bellargus. A comparison was made between sites where large numbers of A. rufa were released versus sites where no, or few, birds were released. The study involved the construction of exclosures in these sites to allow an examination of the number of butterflies emerging from H. comosa when the birds were excluded versus when the birds had free range across the area. Where birds were present the on-site vegetation was shorter than where they were absent indicating that the birds were definitely influencing habitat structure. However, the evidence that A. rufa was negatively influencing the number of adult butterflies emerging was not strong, although there was a largely non-significant tendency for higher butterfly emergence when the birds were excluded or absent.