Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

A study of the cambial zone and conductive phloem of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using an image analysis method. I. Influence of tree age on the structure

Quantification is a major problem when using histology to study the influence of ecological factors on tree structure. This paper presents a method to prepare and to analyse transverse sections of cambial zone and of conductive phloem in bark samples. The following paper (II) presents the automated measurement procedure. Part I here describes and discusses the preparation method, and the influence of tree age on the observed structure. Highly contrasted images of samples extracted at breast height during dormancy were analysed with an automatic image analyser. Between three young (38 years) and three old (147 years) trees, age-related differences were identified by size and shape parameters, at both cell and tissue levels. In the cambial zone, older trees had larger and more rectangular fusiform initials. In the phloem, sieve tubes were also larger, but their shape did not change and the area for sap conduction was similar in both categories. Nevertheless, alterations were limited, and demanded statistical analysis to be identified and ascertained. The physiological implications of the structural changes are discussed.

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Trabecular Bone Score: A Noninvasive Analytical Method Based Upon the DXA Image.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Schistosoma mansoni major egg antigen Smp40: molecular modeling and potential immunoreactivity for anti-pathology vaccine development

The pathogenesis of Schistosoma mansoni infection is largely determined by host T-cell mediated immune responses such as the granulomatous response to tissue deposited eggs and subsequent fibrosis. The major egg antigens have a valuable role in desensitizing the CD4+ Th cells that mediate granuloma formation, which may prevent or ameliorate clinical signs of schistosomiasis.S. mansoni major egg antigen Smp40 was expressed and completely purified. It was found that the expressed Smp40 reacts specifically with anti-Smp40 monoclonal antibody in Western blotting. Three-dimensional structure was elucidated based on the similarity of Smp40 with the small heat shock protein coded in the protein database as 1SHS as a template in the molecular modeling. It was figured out that the C-terminal of the Smp40 protein (residues 130 onward) contains two alpha crystallin domains. The fold consists of eight beta strands sandwiched in two sheets forming Greek key. The purified Smp40 was used for in vitro stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with S. mansoni using phytohemagglutinin mitogen as a positive control. The obtained results showed that there is no statistical difference in interferon-g, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 levels obtained with Smp40 stimulation compared with the control group (P > 0.05 for each). On the other hand, there were significant differences after Smp40 stimulation in IL-5 (P = 0.006) and IL-10 levels (P < 0.001) compared with the control group. Gaining the knowledge by reviewing the literature, it was found that the overall pattern of cytokine profile obtained with Smp40 stimulation is reported to be associated with reduced collagen deposition, decreased fibrosis, and granuloma formation inhibition. This may reflect its future prospect as a leading anti-pathology schistosomal vaccine candidate.

Is accurate perception of body image associated with appropriate weight-control behavior among adolescents of the Seychelles

BACKGROUND: We examined body image perception and its association with reported weight-control behavior among adolescents in the Seychelles.METHODS: We conducted a school-based survey of 1432 students aging 11-17 years in the Seychelles. Perception of body image was assessed using both a closed-ended question (CEQ) and Stunkard's pictorial silhouettes (SPS). Voluntary attempts to change weight were also assessed.RESULTS: A substantial proportion of the overweight students did not consider themselves as overweight (SPS: 24%, CEQ: 34%), and a substantial proportion of the normal-weight students considered themselves as too thin (SPS: 29%, CEQ: 15%). Logistic regression analysis showed that students with an accurate weight perception were more likely to have appropriate weight-control behavior.CONCLUSIONS: We found that substantial proportions of students had an inaccurate perception of their weight and that weight perception was associated with weight-control behavior. These findings point to forces that can drive the upwards overweight trends.

Four whole-istic aspects of schistosome granuloma biology: fractal arrangement, internal regulation, autopoietic component and closure

This paper centers on some whole-istic organizational and functional aspects of hepatic Schistosoma mansoni granuloma, which is an extremely complex system. First, it structurally develops a collagenic topology, originated bidirectionally from an inward and outward assembly of growth units. Inward growth appears to be originated from myofibroblasts derived from small portal vessel around intravascular entrapped eggs, while outward growth arises from hepatic stellate cells. The auto-assembly of the growth units defines the three-dimensional scaffold of the schistosome granulomas. The granuloma surface irregularity and its border presented fractal dimension equal to 1.58. Second, it is internally regulated by intricate networks of immuneneuroendocrine stimuli orchestrated by leptin and leptin receptors, substance P and Vasoactive intestinal peptide. Third, it can reach the population of ± 40,000 cells and presents an autopoietic component evidenced by internal proliferation (Ki-67+ Cells), and by expression of c-Kit+ Cells, leptin and leptin receptor (Ob-R), granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF-R), and erythropoietin (Epo-R) receptors. Fourth, the granulomas cells are intimately connected by pan-cadherins, occludin and connexin-43, building a state of closing (granuloma closure). In conclusion, the granuloma is characterized by transitory stages in such a way that its organized structure emerges as a global property which is greater than the sum of actions of its individual cells and extracellular matrix components.

L'image de Paul dans les Actes des apôtres

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) Deuxième volet de l'oeuvre de Luc, le livre des Actes des Apôtres fait aujourd'hui l'objet de multiples travaux où se croisent enquêtes historiennes, analyses littéraires, questions théologiques. Pour son XXe congrès (Angers, août 2003), l'ACFEB a souhaité participer au débat. Ce volume en rassemble les contributions principales. Odile Flichy commence par dresser un panorama des recherches en cours : renouvellement de l'approche historique, lectures narratives, liens avec le judaïsme. Puis Roselyne Dupont-Roc reprend le problème de la double tradition textuelle du livre. Marie-Françoise Baslez situe le « monde des Actes » dans la littérature et la culture de l'époque. Jean-Pierre Lémonon, relisant Actes 18, 18 - 19, 7, examine les différents courants chrétiens qui marquent Éphèse au Ier siècle. Daniel Marguerat montre comment le récit de Luc dessine Paul comme une « figure identitaire » du christianisme. Michel Quesnel se risque à une analyse rhétorique des discours d'apologie de Paul (Ac 22 et 26). Rémi Gounelle débat des relations entre les foisonnants Actes apocryphes des Apôtres et les Actes des Apôtres canoniques. Enfin deux exemples de réception contemporaine du livre des Actes des Apôtres sont proposés : Laurent Villemin traite de son influence sur l'ecclésiologie du concile Vatican II et Carlos Mesters raconte la lecture qu'en font les « communautés ecclésiales de base » au Brésil. Au terme de ce parcours multiforme, les éditeurs n'ont qu'un souhait : que les lecteurs puissent, comme Théophile, « vérifier la solidité des enseignements [qu'ils ont] reçus » !

Survey on image quality and dose levels used in Europe for mammography.

Quality assurance programmes are becoming a common practice in the field of mammography. At the present time several recommendations exist and different test objects are used to optimize this radiological procedure. The goal of this study was to check if geographically distant centres using different quality control procedures were comparable when using a common objective way of assessing image quality. The results show that consensus still needs to be found among radiologists to reach a satisfactory level of harmony between patient doses and image quality in Europe.