Simulation and modelling of orbital debris environment by equivalent breakups

It is well known that the increasing space activities pose a serious threat to future missions. This is mainly due to the presence of spent stages, rockets spacecraft and fragments which can lead to collisions. The calculation of the collision probability of future space vehicles with the orbital debris is necessary for estimating the risk. There is lack of adequately catalogued and openly available detailed information on the explosion characteristics of trackable and untrackable debris data. Such a situation compels one to develop suitable mathematical modelling of the explosion and the resultant debris environment. Based on a study of the available information regarding the fragmentation, subsequent evolution and observation, it turns out to be possible to develop such a mathematical model connecting the dynamical features of the fragmentation with the geometrical/orbital characteristics of the debris and representing the environment through the idea of equivalent breakup. (C) 1997 COSPAR.

Study of the dynamics of protein folding through minimalistic models

Starting with the Levinthal paradox, a brief introduction to the protein folding problem is presented. The existing theories of protein folding, including the folding funnel scenario, are discussed. After briefly discussing different simulation studies of model proteins, we discuss our recent work on the dynamics of folding of the model HP-36 (the chicken villin headpiece) protein by using a simplified hydropathy scale. Special attention has been paid to the statics and dynamics of contact formation among the hydrophobic residues. The results obtained from this simple model appear to be surprisingly similar to several features observed in the folding of real proteins. The account concludes with a discussion of future problems.

A comparison of three methods for downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab region

Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. This article compares the performances of three downscaling methods, viz. conditional random field (CRF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods in downscaling precipitation in the Punjab region of India, belonging to the monsoon regime. The CRF model is a recently developed method for downscaling hydrological variables in a probabilistic framework, while the SVM model is a popular machine learning tool useful in terms of its ability to generalize and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and predictand. The KNN model is an analogue-type method that queries days similar to a given feature vector from the training data and classifies future days by random sampling from a weighted set of K closest training examples. The models are applied for downscaling monsoon (June to September) daily precipitation at six locations in Punjab. Model performances with respect to reproduction of various statistics such as dry and wet spell length distributions, daily rainfall distribution, and intersite correlations are examined. It is found that the CRF and KNN models perform slightly better than the SVM model in reproducing most daily rainfall statistics. These models are then used to project future precipitation at the six locations. Output from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) GCM for three scenarios, viz. A1B, A2, and B1 is used for projection of future precipitation. The projections show a change in probability density functions of daily rainfall amount and changes in the wet and dry spell distributions of daily precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The multiple and enigmatic roles of guanylyl cyclase C in intestinal homeostasis

Guanylyl cyclase C (GC-C) is predominantly expressed in intestinal epithelial cells and serves as the receptor for the gastrointestinal hormones guanylin and uroguanylin, and the heat-stable enterotoxin, the causative agent for Travellers' Diarrhea. Activation of GC-C results in an increase in intracellular levels of cGMP, which can regulate fluid and ion secretion, colon cell proliferation, and the gut immune system. This review highlights recent findings arising from studies in the GC-C knockout mouse, along with enigmatic results obtained from the first descriptions of human disease caused by mutations in the GC-C gene. We provide some insight into these new findings and comment on areas of future study, which may enhance our knowledge of this evolutionarily conserved receptor and signaling system. (C) 2012 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Status of supersymmetric type-I seesaw in SO(10) inspired models

We report on the status of supersymmetric seesaw models in the light of recent experimental results on mu -> e + gamma, theta(13) and the light Higgs mass at the LHC. SO(10)-like relations are assumed for neutrino Dirac Yukawa couplings and two cases of mixing, one large, PMNS-like, and another small, CKM-like, are considered. It is shown that for the large mixing case, only a small range of parameter space with moderate tan beta is still allowed. This remaining region can be ruled out by an order of magnitude improvement in the current limit on BR(mu -> e + gamma). We also explore a model with non-universal Higgs mass boundary conditions at the high scale. It is shown that the renormalization group induced flavor violating slepton mass terms are highly sensitive to the Higgs boundary conditions. Depending on the choice of the parameters, they can either lead to strong enhancements or cancellations within the flavor violating terms. Such cancellations might relax the severe constraints imposed by lepton flavor violation compared to mSUGRA. Nevertheless for a large region of parameter space the predicted rates lie within the reach of future experiments once the light Higgs mass constraint is imposed. We also update the potential of the ongoing and future experimental searches for lepton flavor violation in constraining the supersymmetric parameter space.

Efficient energy transport in photosynthesis: roles of coherence and entanglement

Recently it has been discovered---contrary to expectations of physicists as well as biologists---that the energy transport during photosynthesis, from the chlorophyll pigment that captures the photon to the reaction centre where glucose is synthesised from carbon dioxide and water, is highly coherent even at ambient temperature and in the cellular environment. This process and the key molecular ingredients that it depends on are described. By looking at the process from the computer science view-point, we can study what has been optimised and how. A spatial search algorithmic model based on robust features of wave dynamics is presented.

Biomimetic molecular organization of naphthalene diimide in the solid state: tunable (chiro-) optical, viscoelastic and nanoscale properties

The interfacing of aromatic molecules with biomolecules to design functional molecular materials is a promising area of research. Intermolecular interactions determine the performance of these materials and therefore, precise control over the molecular organization is necessary to improve functional properties. Herein we describe the tunable biomimetic molecular engineering of a promising n-type organic semiconductor, naphthalene diimide (NDI), in the solid state by introducing minute structural mutations in the form of amino acids with variable Ca-functionality. For the first time we could achieve all four possible crystal packing modes, namely cofacial, brickwork, herringbone and slipped stacks of the NDI system. Furthermore, amino acid conjugated NDIs exhibit ultrasonication induced organogels with tunable visco-elastic and temperature responsive emission properties. The amino acid-NDI conjugates self-assemble into 0D nanospheres and 1D nanofibers in their gel state while the ethylamine-NDI conjugate forms 2D sheets from its solution. Photophysical studies indicated the remarkable influence of molecular ordering on the absorption and fluorescence properties of NDIs. Interestingly, the circular dichroism (CD) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies revealed the existence of helical ordering of NDIs in both solution and solid state. The chiral amino acids and their conformations with respect to the central NDI core are found to influence the nature of the helical organization of NDIs. Consequently, the origin of the preferential handedness in the helical organization is attributed to transcription of chiral information from the amino acid to the NDI core. On account of these unique properties, the materials derived from NDI-conjugates might find a wide range of future interdisciplinary applications from materials to biomedicine.

Detection of Target DNA using Photo-Reactive Protoporphyrin Moeity on a Nanocomposite Substrate

Detection of pathogens from infected biological samples through conventional process involves cell lysis and purification. The main objective of this work is to minimize the time and sample loss, as well as to increase the efficiency of detection of biomolecules. Electrical lysis of medical sample is performed in a closed microfluidic channel in a single integrated platform where the downstream analysis of the sample is possible. The device functions involve, in a sequence, flow of lysate from lysis chamber passed through a thermal denaturation counter where dsDNA is denatured to ssDNA, which is controlled by heater unit. A functionalized binding chamber of ssDNA is prepared by using ZnO nanorods as the matrix and functionalized with bifunctional carboxylic acid, 16-(2-pyridyldithiol) hexadecanoic acid (PDHA) which is further attached to a linker molecule 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl) (EDC). Linker moeity is then covalently bound to photoreactive protoporphyrin (PPP) molecule. The photolabile molecule protoporphyrin interacts with -NH2 labeled single stranded DNA (ssDNA) which thus acts as a probe to detect complimentary ssDNA from target organisms. Thereafter the bound DNA with protoporphyrin is exposed to an LED of particular wavelength for a definite period of time and DNA was eluted and analyzed. UV/Vis spectroscopic analysis at 260/280 nm wavelength confirms the purity and peak at 260 nm is reconfirmed for the elution of target DNA. Quantitative and qualitative data obtained from the current experiments show highly selective detection of biomolecule such as DNA which have large number of future applications in Point-of-Care devices.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Reconnaissance of the ground-water resources of the Fernandina area, Nassau County, Florida

Practically all water for municipal and industrial use in the Fernandina area is supplied by artesian wells. In recent years, the use of artesian water in the area has increased to meet the needs of expanding industry and increasing population. The total industrial and municipal pumpage has increased from approximately 35 million gallons per day in 1941 to approximately 50 million gallons per day in 1959. Correlated with the increase in water use is the constant decline in the artesian pressure in the area. In many other areas in Florida, such a decline in artesian pressure has resulted in salt-water intrusion into the fresh-water supply.An intrusion of salt water in the Fernandina area would contaminate the existing fresh-water supply and would result in a hardship for the population and seriously injure the economy. Recognizing the threat to the fresh-water supplies of this area, the U. S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Florida Geological Surveymade a reconnaissance to determineif there has been any intrusion of salt water into the fresh-water supply or if there is any danger of future intrusion. (PDF contains 28 pages.)

Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's [3] theorem deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. We replace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker notion, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probabilities p = (pi)i2I or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a constrained correlated equilibrium of a doubled game satisfying certain p-belief constraints and characterize the topological structure of the resulting set of p-rational outcomes. We establish continuity in the parameters p and show that, for p su ciently close to one, the p-rational outcomes are close to the correlated equilibria and, with high probability, supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend Aumann and Dreze's [4] theorem on rational expectations of interim types to the broader p-rational belief systems, and also discuss the case of non-common priors.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)