984 resultados para earthquake


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The rocking response of structures subjected to strong ground motions is a problem of 'several scales'. While small structures are sensitive to acceleration pulses acting successively, large structures are more significantly affected by coherent low frequency components of ground motion. As a result, the rocking response of large structures is more stable and orderly, allowing effective isolation from the ground without imminent danger of overturning. This paper aims to characterize and predict the maximum rocking response of large and flexible structures to earthquakes using an idealized structural model. To achieve this, the maximum rocking demand caused by different earthquake records was evaluated using several ground motion intensity measures. Pulse-type records which typically have high peak ground velocity and lower frequency content caused large rocking amplitudes, whereas non-pulse type records caused random rocking motion confined to small rocking amplitudes. Coherent velocity pulses were therefore identified as the primary cause of significant rocking motion. Using a suite of pulse-type ground motions, it was observed that idealized wavelets fitted to velocity pulses can adequately describe the rocking response of large structures. Further, a parametric analysis demonstrates that pulse shape parameters affect the maximum rocking response significantly. Based on these two findings, a probabilistic analysis method is proposed for estimating the maximum rocking demand to pulse-type earthquakes. The dimensionless demand maps, produced using these methods, have predictive power in the near-field provided that pulse period and amplitude can be estimated a priori. Use of this method within a probabilistic seismic demand analysis framework is briefly discussed. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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Numerous studies on the rigid rocking block have generated a wealth of knowledge about rocking behavior. However, evaluation of more complex rocking systems requires the derivation and solution of complicated equations of motion. This paper investigates the possibility of a unified description of several rocking systems through investigation of rocking mechanisms which describe the masonry wall and the masonry arch. Effective rocking parameters are derived for each of these structures, and the similarity of the rocking behavior is discussed. The error of the proposed approximation, which defines the limitations for this approach, is quantified for the example structures considered. Where appropriate, a unified description of rocking would allow the use of rocking spectra, which would be useful to readily predict the response of a wide array of rocking structures.

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Underground structures constitute crucial components of the transportation networks. Considering their significance for modern societies, their proper seismic design is of great importance. However, this design may become very tricky, accounting of the lack of knowledge regarding their seismic behavior. Several issues that are significantly affecting this behavior (i.e. earth pressures on the structure, seismic shear stresses around the structure, complex deformation modes for rectangular structures during shaking etc.) are still open. The problem is wider for the non-circular (i.e. rectangular) structures, were the soilstructure interaction effects are expected to be maximized. The paper presents representative experimental results from a test case of a series of dynamic centrifuge tests that were performed on rectangular tunnels embedded in dry sand. The tests were carried out at the centrifuge facility of the University of Cambridge, within the Transnational Task of the SERIES EU research program. The presented test case is also numerically simulated and studied. Preliminary full dynamic time history analyses of the coupled soil-tunnel system are performed, using ABAQUS. Soil non-linearity and soil-structure interaction are modeled, following relevant specifications for underground structures and tunnels. Numerical predictions are compared to experimental results and discussed. Based on this comprehensive experimental and numerical study, the seismic behavior of rectangular embedded structures is better understood and modeled, consisting an important step in the development of appropriate specifications for the seismic design of rectangular shallow tunnels.

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This paper introduces the problem of passive control of a chain of N identical masses in which there is an identical passive connection between neighbouring masses and a similar connection to a movable point. The problem arises in the design of multi-storey buildings which are subjected to earthquake disturbances, but applies in other situations, for example vehicle platoons. The paper will study the scalar transfer functions from the disturbance to a given intermass displacement. It will be shown that these transfer functions can be conveniently represented in the form of complex iterative maps and that these maps provide a method to establish boundedness in N of the H ∞-norm of these transfer functions for certain choices of interconnection impedance. © 2013 IEEE.

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The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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已有研究表明,中国大陆活动地块边界带是我国大陆强震的主体带和集中区,因此有必要对各边界带开展强震危险性的跟踪分析。本文分别从加卸载响应比时序演化特征、基于对数正态分布的概率方法和b值变化特征3个方面对各边界带未来强震趋势进行了分析;并分别根据加卸载响应比时序演化特征、综合累积概率与条件概率、b值下降判断了各边界带未来发生强震的危险程度。最后,根据3种方法的分析结果,探讨了中国大陆未来5年发生强震的可能区域。

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The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

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National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China [2006CB701305]; State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environment Information System [088RA400SA]; Chinese Academy of Sciences

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The stability and derailment behavior analysis of railway vehicle system has been discussed by many papers in the past. In stability, give first place to consider hunting behavior of vehicle, therefore most of papers was only consider lateral and yaw motion, but vertical motion is the important factor in derailment behavior, and it will be quite effect in stability. We will probe the running stability and derailment behavior of railway vehicle moving on the viaduct in this paper. In this paper, we use Nadal’s formula to get the derailment quotient. In this paper, the railway vehicle is considered to be three subsystems, carbody, bogie and wheelset. There are secondary suspension systems between carbody and bogies, and primary suspension systems connecting bogies and wheelsets. A vehicle with vertical, lateral, roll, and yaw directions motion is considered to derive the mathematical equations. A vehicle with three-dimensional model has 16 degrees of freedom is used to develop the equations of train motion. In this study, results show that the track shift force and derailment factor increase with an increase of ground acceleration. But for the track shift force and derailment factor, the effects of track irregularities and train speed are very small. Key words: earthquake, railway vehicle, viaduct, derailment factor.

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Prediction of Carbonate Reservoir Based on the Elastic Parameter Analysis Zhang Guangzhi (Solid Geophysics) Directed by Professor Liu Hong Abstract With the exploration and development of Puguang Oilfield, oil-gas exploration of carbonate rock in China has shown good prospects. Research on earthquake prediction methods for carbonate reservoir becomes the key of oil and gas exploration. Starting with analysis of geological characteristics of carbonate rock, prestack AVO inversion method, prestack elastic impedance inversion and parameter calculation method and seismic attribute extraction and optimization method were studied based on the analysis of rock physics in this work. First, variation characteristic and law of carbonate rock reservoir parameters were studied based on experimental data of rock physics, log data, analysis assay data, mud logging data and seismic data, so as to lay a foundation for the further reservoir identification and description. Then, the structure, type and propagation law of seismic wave field were analyzed through seismic forward modeling of the reservoir, and contact between information from log and geology data with elastic parameters, such as compressional wave and shear wave velocity and density were established, so as to provide a standard for reservoir identification and hydrocarbon detection using seismic reflection characteristics of the research area. Starting with the general concept of inverse problem, through analysis of Zoeppritz equation, three kinds of pre-stack inversion methods were derived and analyzed in detail, the AVO 3-parameter inversion based on Bayesian theory, the prestack AVO waveform inversion method and the simultaneous inversion method, based on the statistical hypothesis of inversion parameters and observation data and the Gauss distribution assumption of noise. The three methods were validated by model data and real data. Then, the elastic wave impedance inversion method of carbonate reservoir was investigated and the method of elastic parameter extraction from elastic impedance data was put forward. Based on the analysis of conventional methods of seismic attribute extraction and optimization, the time-frequency attributes and the wavelet attributes with time and amplitude feature were presented, and the prestack seismic attribute calculation method which can characterize the reservoir rock and fluid characteristic was presented. And the optimization of seismic attribute using the nonlinear KPCA method was also put forward. A series of seismic prediction technologies for carbonate reservoir were presented based on analysis of rock physics and seismic forward simulation technology. Practical application of these technologies was implemented in A oil field of Southern China and good effect has been achieved. Key words: carbonate rock; reservoir prediction; rock physics, prestack seismic inversion; seismic attribute

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The unique geologic, geomorphic and climatic conditions of southeast Tibet have made the region to develop the multi-style and frequently occurring geologic hazards, especially the collapses and landslides and debris flows along the section of Ranwu-Lulang in Sichuan-Tibet highway. However, most of those geologic hazards have close relationship with the loose accumulations. That is, the loose accumulations are the main carrier of most geologic hazards. Thereof, the huge-thick accumulations along the highway is regarded as the objective in the thesis to study the geologic background, hazarding model and mitigation methods comprehensively, based on the multi-disciplinary theories and former materials. First of all, in the paper, based on field engineering geologic investigations, the genetic type and the characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the huge-thick loose accumulations along the highway, have been analysized from the factors of regional geology and geomorphy and climate, as well as the coupling acting of those factors with inoculation and eruption of the loose accumulations geologic hazards. The huge-thick loose accumulations has complex genetic types and specific regulations of spatiotemporal distribution, closely controlled by the outer environment of the region. The accumulations are composed of earth and boulder, with disorder structure and poor sorting, specific forming environments and depositing conditions. And its physical and mechanic properties are greatly distinguished from rock and common earth inland. When Sichuan-Tibet highway was firstly constructed along the north bank of Purlung Tsangpo River, the huge-thick loose accumulations was cut into many high and steep slopes. Through the survey to the cut-slopes and systematic investigation to their failures, the combination of height and angle of the accumulations slope has been obtained. At the same time, the types of genetic structure of those cut-slopes are also analysized and concluded, as well as their failure models. It is studied in the paper that there are piaster, duality, multielement and complexity types in genetic structure, and rip-dump-repose, rip-shear-slip and weathering-flake types in failure models. Moreover, it is briefly introduced present engineering performance methods and techniques dealing with the deformation and failure of the accumulations cut-slope. It is also suggested that several new techniques of slope enforcement and the method of landslide and rockfall avoiding should be applied. The research of high and steep cut-slope along the highway has broadened the acknowledgement of the combination of cut-slope height and angle. Especially, the dissertation also has made the monographic studies about the geologic background and hazarding models and prevention methods of some classic but difficult accumulations geologic hazards. They are: (1) Research of the engineering geologic background of the 102 landslide group and key problems about the project of tunnel. The 102 landslide group is a famous accumulational one composed of glacial tills and glaciofuvial deposit. The tunnel project is a feasible and optional one which can solve the present plight of “sliding after just harnessing” in the 102 section. Based on the glacial geomorphy and its depositing character, distribution of seepage line, a few drillhole materials and some surveying data, the position of contact surface between gneiss and accumulations has been recognized, and the retreating velocities of three different time scales (short, medium and long term) have been approximately calculated, and the weathering thickness of gneiss has also been estimated in the paper. On the basis of above acknowledgement, new engineering geomechnic mode is established. Numerical analysis about the stability of the No.2 landslide is done by way of FLAC program, which supplies the conclusion that the landslide there develops periodically. Thereof, 4 projects of tunnel going through the landslide have been put forwards. Safety distance of the tunnel from clinohefron has been numerically analysized. (2) Research of the geologic setting and disaster model and hazard mitigation of sliding-sand-slope. From the geologic setting of talus cone, it is indicated that the sliding-sand-slope is the process of the re-transportation and re-deposit of sand under the gravity action and from the talus cone. It is the failure of the talus cone essentially. The layering structure of the sliding-sand-slope is discovered. The models of movement and failure of the sliding-sand-slope has been put forwards. The technique, “abamurus+grass-bush fence+degradable culture pan”, is suggested to enforcement and green the sliding-sand-slope. (3) Characteristics and hazarding model and disaster mitigation of debris flow. The sources of solid material of three oversize debris flows have been analysized. It is found that a large amount of moraine existing in the glacial valley and large landslide dam-break are the two important features for oversize debris flow to be taken place. The disaster models of oversize and common debris flows have been generalized respectively. The former model better interpret the event of the Yigong super-large landslide-dam breaking. The features of common debris flow along the highway section, scouring and silting and burying and impacting, are formulated carefully. It is suggested that check dam is a better engineering structure to prevent valley from steeply scouring by debris flow. Moreover, the function of check dam in enforcing the slope is numerically calculated by FLAC program. (4) Songzong ancient ice-dammed lake and its slope stability. The lacustrine profile in Songzong landslide, more than 88 meters thick, is carefully described and measured. The Optical Simulated Luminescence (OSL) ages in the bottom and top of the silty clay layer are 22.5±3.3 kaB.P., 16.1±1.7 kaB.P., respectively. It is indicated by the ages that the lacustrine deposits formed during the Last Glacial Maximum ranging from 25ka B.P. to 15ka B.P. The special characteristics of the lacustrine sediment and the ancient lake line in Songzong basin indicated that the lacustrine sediment is related to the blocking of the Purlung Tsangpo River by the glacier in Last Glacial Maximum from Dongqu valley. The characteristics of the lacustrine profile also indicate that the Songzong ice-dammed lake might run through the Last Glacial Maximum. Two dimensional numerical modeling and analysis are done to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of nature and earthquake by FLAC program. The factor of safety of the lacusrtine slope is 1.04, but it will take place horizontal flow under earthquake activity due to the liquefaction of the 18.33 m silt layer. The realign to prevent the road from landslide is suggested.

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The Tien Shan is the most prominent intracontinental mountain belt on the earth. The active crustal deformation and earthquake activities provide an excellent place to study the continental geodynamics of intracontinental mountain belt. The studies of deep structures in crust and upper mantle are significantly meaningful for understanding the geological evolution and geodynamics of global intracontinental mountain belts. This dissertation focuses on the deep structures and geodynamics in the crust and upper mantle in the Tien Shan mountain belt. With the arrival time data from permanent and temporal seismic stations located in the western and central Tien Shan, using seismic travel time tomographic method, we inversed the P-wave velocity and Vp/Vs structures in the crust and uppermost mantle, the Pn and Sn velocities and Pn anisotropic structures in the uppermost mantle, and the P-wave velocity structures in the crust and mantle deep to 690km depth beneath the Tien Shan. The tomographic results suggest that the deep structures and geodynamics have significant impacts not only on the deformations and earthquake activities in the crust, but also on the mountain building, collision, and dynamics of the whole Tien Shan mountain belt. With the strongly collision and deformations in the crust, the 3-D P-wave velocity and Vp/Vs ratio structures are highly complex. The Pn and Sn velocities in the uppermost mantle beneath the Tien Shan, specially beneath the central Tien Shan, are significantly lower than the seismic wavespeed beneath geological stable regions. We infer that the hot upper mantle from the small-scale convection could elevate the temperature in the lower crust and uppermost mantle, and partially melt the materials in the lower crust. The observations of low P-wave and S-wave velocities, high Vp/Vs ratios near the Moho and the absences of earthquake activities in the lower crust are consistent with this inference. Based on teleseismic tomography images of the upper mantle beneath the Tien Shan, we infer that the lithosphere beneath the Tarim basin has subducted under the Tien Shan to depths as great as 500 km. The lithosphere beneath the Kazakh shield may have subducted to similar depths in the opposite direction, but the limited resolution of this data set makes this inference less certain. These images support the plate boundary model of converge for the Tien Shan, as the lithospheres to the north and south of the range both appear to behave as plates.