928 resultados para dry climate events
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The relative roles of high- versus low-latitude forcing of millennial-scale climate variability are still not well understood. Here we present terrestrial–marine climate profiles from the southwestern Iberian margin, a region particularly affected by precession, that show millennial climate oscillations related to a nonlinear response to the Earth's precession cycle during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19. MIS 19 has been considered the best analogue to our present interglacial from an astronomical point of view due to the reduced eccentricity centred at 785 ka. In our records, seven millennial-scale forest contractions punctuated MIS 19 superimposed to two orbitally-driven Mediterranean forest expansions. In contrast to our present interglacial, we evidence for the first time low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. These cycles indicate repeated intensification of North Atlantic meridional moisture transport that along with decrease in boreal summer insolation triggered ice growth and may have contributed to the glacial inception, at ∼774 ka. The freshwater fluxes during MIS 19ab amplified the cooling events in the North Atlantic promoting further cooling and leading to MIS 18 glaciation. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS 1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS 19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS 19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.
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We synthesize recent results from lake-sediment studies of Holocene fire-climate-vegetation interactions in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. At the millennial time scale, the most robust feature of these records is an increase in fire occurrence with the establishment of boreal forests dominated by Picea mariana: estimated mean fire-return intervals decreased from ≥300 yrs to as low as ∼80 yrs. This fire-vegetation relationship occurred at all sites in interior Alaska with charcoal-based fire reconstructions, regardless of the specific time of P. mariana arrival during the Holocene. The establishment of P. mariana forests was associated with a regional climatic trend toward cooler/wetter conditions. Because such climatic change should not directly enhance fire occurrence, the increase in fire frequency most likely reflects the influence of highly flammable P. mariana forests, which are more conducive to fire ignition and spread than the preceding vegetation types (tundra, and woodlands/forests dominated by Populus or Picea glauca). Increased lightning associated with altered atmospheric circulation may have also played a role in certain areas where fire frequency increased around 4000 calibrated years before present (BP) without an apparent increase in the abundance of P. mariana. When viewed together, the paleo-fire records reveal that fire histories differed among sites in the same modern fire regime and that the fire regime and plant community similar to those of today became established at different times. Thus the spatial array of regional fire regimes was non-static through the Holocene. However, the patterns and causes of the spatial variation remain largely unknown. Advancing our understanding of climate-fire-vegetation interactions in the Alaskan boreal biome will require a network of charcoal records across various ecoregions, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions, and improved knowledge of how sedimentary charcoal records fire events.
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The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.
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Pollen records from perennially frozen sequences provide vegetation and climate reconstruction for the last 48,000 14C years in the central part of Taymyr Peninsula. Open larch forest with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana grew during the Kargin (Middle Weichselian) Interstade, ca. 48,000-25,000 14C yr B.P. The climate was generally warmer and wetter than today. Open steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Poaceae, Asteraceae, and herb tundralike communities with dwarf Betula and Salix dominated during the Sartan (Late Weichselian) Stade, ca. 24,000-10,300 14C yr B.P. The statistical information method used for climate reconstruction shows that the coldest climate was ca. 20,000-17,000 14C yr B.P. A warming (Allerød Interstade?) with mean July temperature ca. 1.5°C warmer than today occurred ca. 12,000 14C yr B.P. The following cooling with temperatures about 3°-4°C cooler than present and precipitation about 100 mm lower corresponds well with the Younger Dryas Stade. Tundra-steppe vegetation changed to Betula nana-Alnus fruticosa shrub tundra ca. 10,000 14C yr B.P. Larch appeared in the area ca. 9400 14C yr B.P. and disappeared after 2900 14C yr B.P. Cooling events ca. 10,500, 9600, and 8200 14C yr B.P. characterized the first half of the Holocene. A significant warming occurred ca. 8500 14C yr B.P., but the Holocene temperature maximum was at about 6000-4500 14C yr B.P. The vegetation cover approximated modern conditions ca. 2800 14C yr B.P. Late Holocene warming events occurred at ca. 3500, 2000, and 1000 14C yr B.P. A cooling (Little Ice Age?) took place between 500 and 200 14C yr ago.
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Aim: Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location: The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods: We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results: Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m/year assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m/year in elevation and +2.7 m/year in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions: In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.
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Oxygen isotope records, radiocarbon AMS data, carbonate and opal stratigraphy, sediment magnetic susceptibility, tephrachronology, and paleontological results were used to obtain detailed sediment stratigraphy and an age model for the studied cores. For studying sea-ice sedimentation an analysis of lithogenic grain number in >0.15 mm grain size fraction of bottom sediments was carried out. For quantitative estimation of intensity ice-rafting debris sedimentation number of IRD particles per sq cm per ka was calculated. Obtained results allowed to plot IRD AR distribution for the first oxygen isotope stage (0-12.5 14C ka, 14C) and for the second stage (12.5-24 14C ka). The first stage was subdivided into the latest deglaciation and the beginning of Holocene (6-12.5 14C ka) (transitive period), when the sea level was changing significantly, and the second part of Holocene (0-6 14C ka), when climate conditions and the sea level were similar to modern estimates. Data clearly show strong increase in ice formation in the glacial Sea of Okhotsk and its extent in the middle part of the sea. Average annual duration of ice coverage during glaciation was longer than that for interglaciation. However the sea ice cover was not continuous all the year round and disappeared in summer time except the far northwestern part of the sea.
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There is much uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms that forced the abrupt climate fluctuations found in many palaeoclimate records during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-3. One of the processes thought to be involved in these events is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), which exhibited large changes in its dominant mode throughout the last glacial period. Giant piston core MD95-2006 from the northeast Atlantic Ocean records a suite of palaeoceanographic proxies related to the activity of both surface and deep water masses through a period of MIS-3 when abrupt climate fluctuations were extremely pronounced. A two-stage progression of surface water warming during interstadial warm events is proposed, with initial warming related to the northward advection of a thin warm surface layer within the North Atlantic Current, which only extended into deeper surface layers as the interstadial progressed. Benthic foraminifera isotope data also show millennial-scale oscillations but of a different structure to the abrupt surface water changes. These changes are argued to partly be related to the influence of low-salinity deepwater brines. The influence of deepwater brines over the site of MD95-2006 reached a maximum at times of rapid warming of surface waters. This observation supports the suggestion that brine formation may have helped to destabilize the accumulation of warm, saline surface waters at low latitudes, helping to force the MOC into a warm mode of operation. The contribution of deepwater brines relative to other mechanisms proposed to alter the state of the MOC needs to be examined further in future studies.
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The paleoenvironmental conditions through MIS 15-9 at the Mediterranean Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 975 were interpreted by high resolution study of calcareous plankton assemblages compared with available d18O and d13C records and high resolution paleoclimate proxies from the Atlantic Ocean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have been estimated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages using the artificial neural networks method. Calcareous plankton varied dominantly on a glacial-interglacial scale as testified by the SST record, foraminiferal diversity, total coccolith abundance and changes in warm-water calcareous nannofossil taxa. A general increase in foraminiferal diversity and of total coccolith abundance is observed during interglacials. Warmest SSTs are reached during MIS 11, while MIS 12 and MIS 10 represent the coldest intervals of the studied record. During MIS 12, one of the most extreme glacials of the last million years, occurrence of Globorotalia inflata and of neogloboquadrinids indicates a shoaling of the interface between Atlantic inflowing and Mediterranean outflowing waters. Among calcareous nannofossils the distribution of Gephyrocapsa margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm also supports a reduced Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange during MIS 12. Superimposed on glacial-interglacial variability, six short-terms coolings are recognized during MIS 12 and 10, which appear comparable in their distribution and amplitude to the Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval. During these H-type events, N. pachyderma (s) and G. margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm increase as a response to the enhanced inflow of cold Atlantic water into the Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar. Mediterranean surface water hydrography appears to have been most severely affected at Termination V during the H-type event Ht4, possibly as a response to a large volume of Atlantic meltwater inflow via the Strait of Gibraltar and/or to freshwater/terrigenous input deriving from local mountain glaciers. Three additional SST coolings are recorded through MIS 14-16, but these are not well correlated with Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval; during these cooling episodes only the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba increases. These results highlight the sensitive response of the Mediterranean basin to millennial-scale climate variations related to Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet instability and support the hypothesis that the tight connection between high latitude climate dynamics and Mediterranean sea surface water features can be traced through the Middle Pleistocene.
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This initial survey of pollen from 192 samples from Hole 794A, supplemented by 189 samples from Hole 795 and 797B, suggests that marine pollen assemblages from the southwestern Sea of Japan provide a consistent Neogene pollen stratigraphy and a solid basis for regional paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Late Miocene vegetation inferred from these pollen data, a mix of conifer and broad-leaf elements with now-extinct Tertiary types well represented, appears similar to Aniai-type floras of Japan. During the late Miocene through early Pliocene, as Tertiary types declined, conifers (including the Sequoia/Cryptomeria group) became more prominent than broad-leaf elements, and herbs played an increasing role in the vegetation. Middle Pliocene pollen assemblages imply significant changes in forest composition. In a 500,000-yr interval centered at ~4 m.y., Tertiary and warm-temperate deciduous types re-expanded and were comparable to or greater than middle-late Miocene levels. Temperate and cold-temperate conifers {Picea, Abies, Tsuga) were minimal. Subsequently, Tertiary and deciduous forest components (including Quercus) decreased, Picea, Tsuga, and Abies were again prominent, and herbs formed an increasingly larger part of the vegetation. Between ~3 m.y. and -2.5 m.y., conifers, except for Cryptomeria types, were prominent, Quercus continued to decline, and other broad-leaf trees were minor. Over the last 2 Ma, the very large and frequent changes in forest composition inferred from pollen in the Sea of Japan correspond to forest dynamics inferred from changes in pollen and floral assemblages throughout Japan. Given present vegetation/climate relationships, broad trends in Neogene climate inferred from these preliminary pollen data include decreasing temperatures, increasing seasonality in temperatures and precipitation, and increasing amplitude and frequency of climatic change. Two significant events, centered at ~9 m.y. and ~4 m.y., punctuate the gradual deterioration of the equable warm, humid subtropical/warm temperate late Miocene and early Pliocene climates. The first indication of cold-temperate conditions comparable to those of Pleistocene glacial intervals occurs ~3 m.y. Subsequently, regional climates oscillated rapidly between temperate and cold-temperate regimes that supported conifer and mixed broad-leaf forests; however, climatic extremes were apparently never great enough to displace warm-temperate and temperate forests from Honshu nor to produce arctic climates on the west coast of Japan.
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ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.
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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06
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Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.
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The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.