Social Investment Policies in Times of Permanent Austerity

The objective of this paper is to identify the political conditions that are most likely to be conducive to the development of social investment policies. It starts from the view put forward by theorists of welfare retrenchment that in the current context of permanent austerity, policy is likely to be dominated by retrenchment and implemented in a way that allows governments to minimise the risk of electoral punishment (blame avoidance). It is argued that this view is inconsistent with developments observed in several European countries, were some welfare state expansion has taken place mostly in the fields of childcare and active labour market policy. An alternative model is put forward, that emphasises the notion of "affordable credit claiming". It is argued that even under strong budgetary pressures, governments maintain a preference for policies that allow them to claim credit for their actions. Since the traditional redistributive policies tend to be off the menu for cost reasons, governments have tended to favour investments in childcare and active labour market policy as credit claiming tools. Policies developed in this way while they have a social investment flavour, tend to be rather limited in the extent to which they genuinely improve prospects of disadvantaged people by investing in their human capital. A more ambitious strategy of social investment sees unlikely to develop on the basis of affordable credit claiming. The paper starts by presenting the theoretical argument, which is then illustrated with examples taken from European countries both in the pre-crisis and in the post-crisis years.

SOIL PHOSPHORUS THRESHOLDS IN EVALUATING RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSFER TO SURFACE WATERS IN SANTA CATARINA, BRAZIL

The State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, has agricultural and livestock activities, such as pig farming, that are responsible for adding large amounts of phosphorus (P) to soils. However, a method is required to evaluate the environmental risk of these high soil P levels. One possible method for evaluating the environmental risk of P fertilization, whether organic or mineral, is to establish threshold levels of soil available P, measured by Mehlich-1 extractions, below which there is not a high risk of P transfer from the soil to surface waters. However, the Mehlich-1 extractant is sensitive to soil clay content, and that factor should be considered when establishing such P-thresholds. The objective of this study was to determine P-thresholds using the Mehlich-1 extractant for soils with different clay contents in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Soil from the B-horizon of an Oxisol with 800 g kg-1 clay was mixed with different amounts of sand to prepare artificial soils with 200, 400, 600, and 800 g kg-1 clay. The artificial soils were incubated for 30 days with moisture content at 80 % of field capacity to stabilize their physicochemical properties, followed by additional incubation for 30 days after liming to raise the pH(H2O) to 6.0. Soil P sorption curves were produced, and the maximum sorption (Pmax) was determined using the Langmuir model for each soil texture evaluated. Based on the Pmax values, seven rates of P were added to four replicates of each soil, and incubated for 20 days more. Following incubation, available P contents (P-Mehlich-1) and P dissolved in the soil solution (P-water) were determined. A change-point value (the P-Mehlich-1 value above which P-water starts increasing sharply) was calculated through the use of segmented equations. The maximum level of P that a soil might safely adsorb (P-threshold) was defined as 80 % of the change-point value to maintain a margin for environmental safety. The P-threshold value, in mg dm-3, was dependent on the soil clay content according to the model P-threshold = 40 + Clay, where the soil clay content is expressed as a percentage. The model was tested in 82 diverse soil samples from the State of Santa Catarina and was able to distinguish samples with high and low environmental risk.

Less Risk, More Effort : Demand Risk Allocation in Incomplete Contracts

This article investigates the allocation of demand risk within an incomplete contract framework. We consider an incomplete contractual relationship between a public authority and a private provider (i.e. a public-private partnership), in which the latter invests in non-verifiable cost-reducing efforts and the former invests in non-verifiable adaptation efforts to respond to changing consumer demand over time. We show that the party that bears the demand risk has fewer hold-up opportunities and that this leads the other contracting party to make more effort. Thus, in our model, bearing less risk can lead to more effort, which we describe as a new example of âeuro~counter-incentivesâeuro?. We further show that when the benefits of adaptation are important, it is socially preferable to design a contract in which the demand risk remains with the private provider, whereas when the benefits of cost-reducing efforts are important, it is socially preferable to place the demand risk on the public authority. We then apply these results to explain two well-known case studies.

Decision Support Model for Assessing Archaeological Survey Needs for Bridge Replacement Projects in Iowa, 2006

The Bridges Decision Support Model is a geographic information system (GIS) that assembles existing data on archaeological sites, surveys, and their geologic contexts to assess the risk of bridge replacement projects encountering 13,000- to 150-year-old Native American sites. This project identifies critical variables for assessing prehistoric sites potential, examines the quality of available data about the variables, and applies the data to creating a decision support framework for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and others. An analysis of previous archaeological surveys indicates that subsurface testing to discover buried sites became increasingly common after 1980, but did not become routine until after the adoption of guidelines recommending such testing, in 1993. Even then, the average depth of testing has been relatively shallow. Alluvial deposits of sufficient age, deposited in depositional environments conducive to human habitation, are considerably thicker than archaeologists have routinely tested.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

A novel mucosal orthotopic murine model of human papillomavirus-associated genital cancers.

Cervical cancer results from infection with high-risk type human papillomaviruses (HPV). Therapeutic vaccines aiming at controlling existing genital HPV infections and associated lesions are usually tested in mice with HPV-expressing tumor cells subcutaneously implanted into their flank. However, effective vaccine-induced regression of these ectopic tumors strongly contrasts with the poor clinical results of these vaccines produced in patients with HPV-associated genital neoplasia. To assess HPV therapeutic vaccines in a more relevant setting, we have, here, established an orthotopic mouse model where tumors in the genital mucosa (GM) develop after an intravaginal instillation of HPV16 E6/E7-expressing tumor cells transduced with a luciferase-encoding lentiviral vector for in vivo imaging of tumor growth. Tumor take was 80-90% after nonoxynol-9 induced damage of the epithelium. Tumors remained localized in the genital tract, and histological analysis showed that most tumors grew within the squamous epithelium of the vaginal wall. Those tumors induced (i) E7-specific CD8 T cells restricted to the GM and draining lymph nodes, in agreement with their mucosal location and (ii) high Foxp3+ CD4+ infiltrates, similarly to those found in natural non-regressing HPV lesions. This novel genital HPV-tumor model by requiring GM homing of vaccine-induced immune responses able to overcome local immuno-suppression may be more representative of the situation occurring in patients upon therapeutic vaccination.

Native Grassland Conversion: the Roles of Risk Intervention and Switching Costs

We develop a real option model of the irreversible native grassland conversion decision. Upon plowing, native grassland can be followed by either a permanent cropping system or a system in which land is put under cropping (respectively, grazing) whenever crop prices are high (respectively, low). Switching costs are incurred upon alternating between cropping and grazing. The effects of risk intervention in the form of crop insurance subsidies are studied, as are the effects of cropping innovations that reduce switching costs. We calibrate the model by using cropping return data for South Central North Dakota from 1989 to 2012. Simulations show that a risk intervention that offsets 20% of a cropping return shortfall increases the sod-busting cost threshold, below which native sod will be busted, by 41% (or $43.7/acre). Omitting cropping return risk across time underestimates this sod-busting cost threshold by 23% (or $24.35/acre), and hence underestimates the native sod conversion caused by crop production.

A comparison of three methods of Mendelian randomization when the genetic instrument, the risk factor and the outcome are all binary.

The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Calibration and application of the MN2D dynamics model to the avalanches of Las Leñas (Argentina)

During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.

Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study.

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (<or=40 g/day) and were not genotype 3, indicated no strong evidence of excess mortality. We found little evidence of excess mortality in hepatitis C infected patients who were not cirrhotic, in the absence of selected risk factors. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing appropriate preventive advice, such as counselling to avoid alcohol intake, in those infected with HCV.

The neuroanatomical model of post-stroke depression: towards a change of focus?

One third of all stroke survivors develop post-stroke depression (PSD). Depressive symptoms adversely affect rehabilitation and significantly increase risk of death in the post-stroke period. One of the theoretical views on the determinants of PSD focuses on psychosocial factors like disability and social support. Others emphasize biologic mechanisms such as disruption of biogenic amine neurotransmission and release of proinflammatory cytokines. The "lesion location" perspective attempts to establish a relationship between localization of stroke and occurrence of depression, but empirical results remain contradictory. These divergences are partly related to the fact that neuroimaging methods, unlike neuropathology, are not able to assess precisely the full extent of stroke-affected areas and do not specify the different types of vascular lesions. We provide here an overview of the known phenomenological profile and current pathogenic hypotheses of PSD and present neuropathological data challenging the classic "single-stroke"-based neuroanatomical model of PSD. We suggest that vascular burden due to the chronic accumulation of small macrovascular and microvascular lesions may be a crucial determinant of the development and evolution of PSD.

Inhibition of the Kit Ligand/c-Kit Axis Attenuates Metastasis in a Mouse Model Mimicking Local Breast Cancer Relapse after Radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: Local breast cancer relapse after breast-saving surgery and radiotherapy is associated with increased risk of distant metastasis formation. The mechanisms involved remain largely elusive. We used the well-characterized 4T1 syngeneic, orthotopic breast cancer model to identify novel mechanisms of postradiation metastasis. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: 4T1 cells were injected in 20 Gy preirradiated mammary tissue to mimic postradiation relapses, or in nonirradiated mammary tissue, as control, of immunocompetent BALB/c mice. Molecular, biochemical, cellular, histologic analyses, adoptive cell transfer, genetic, and pharmacologic interventions were carried out. RESULTS: Tumors growing in preirradiated mammary tissue had reduced angiogenesis and were more hypoxic, invasive, and metastatic to lung and lymph nodes compared with control tumors. Increased metastasis involved the mobilization of CD11b(+)c-Kit(+)Ly6G(high)Ly6C(low)(Gr1(+)) myeloid cells through the HIF1-dependent expression of Kit ligand (KitL) by hypoxic tumor cells. KitL-mobilized myeloid cells homed to primary tumors and premetastatic lungs, to give rise to CD11b(+)c-Kit(-) cells. Pharmacologic inhibition of HIF1, silencing of KitL expression in tumor cells, and inhibition of c-Kit with an anti-c-Kit-blocking antibody or with a tyrosine kinase inhibitor prevented the mobilization of CD11b(+)c-Kit(+) cells and attenuated metastasis. C-Kit inhibition was also effective in reducing mobilization of CD11b(+)c-Kit(+) cells and inhibiting lung metastasis after irradiation of established tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Our work defines KitL/c-Kit as a previously unidentified axis critically involved in promoting metastasis of 4T1 tumors growing in preirradiated mammary tissue. Pharmacologic inhibition of this axis represents a potential therapeutic strategy to prevent metastasis in breast cancer patients with local relapses after radiotherapy. Clin Cancer Res; 18(16); 4365-74. ©2012 AACR.

Serum resistin concentrations and risk of new onset heart failure in older persons: the health, aging, and body composition (Health ABC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Resistin is associated with inflammation and insulin resistance and exerts direct effects on myocardial cells including hypertrophy and altered contraction. We investigated the association of serum resistin concentrations with risk for incident heart failure (HF) in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2902 older persons without prevalent HF (age, 73.6+/-2.9 years; 48.1% men; 58.8% white) enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Correlation between baseline serum resistin concentrations (20.3+/-10.0 ng/mL) and clinical variables, biochemistry panel, markers of inflammation and insulin resistance, adipocytokines, and measures of adiposity was weak (all rho <0.25). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 341 participants (11.8%) developed HF. Resistin was strongly associated with risk for incident HF in Cox proportional hazards models controlling for clinical variables, biomarkers, and measures of adiposity (HR, 1.15 per 10.0 ng/mL in adjusted model; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.27; P=0.003). Results were comparable across sex, race, diabetes mellitus, and prevalent and incident coronary heart disease subgroups. In participants with available left ventricular ejection fraction at HF diagnosis (265 of 341; 77.7%), association of resistin with HF risk was comparable for cases with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Serum resistin concentrations are independently associated with risk for incident HF in older persons.