Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Trade and poverty in latin american countries: conceptual and methodological challenges

This paper addresses topics - either relevant or confusing or needing more attention - related to measuring the trade and poverty nexus. It sheds a critical light on the existing material and suggests needed research lines. It starts with questions akin to the LAC realities; then, keeping this view, general methodological issues are also examined. In a broader perspective, further ideas for the research agenda are formulated. The main conclusion is that relevant findings still demand considerable efforts. Moreover, the Information-measurement-model-evaluation paradigm is not enough, policy guidelines being usually too general. In LAC, it must be extended and deepened, accounting more for the heterogeneity of cases, including, whenever possible, the physical constraints and incorporating new ways of integrating both the local and global perspectives. Other aspects, like the role of specific juridical measures, should play a role. How all this can be combined into more encompassing evaluations remains open

Responsabilidade social e dimensões sociais do marketing: o estudo de caso Furnas

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi averiguar partir da análise do modelo de performance social corporativa, tomando como base proposta de classificação dos conceitos que circunscrevem as "dimensões sociais do marketing", inseridos nos espaços estruturais do mapa de estruturaação das sociedades capitalistas no sistema mundial, se as práticas dessas ferramentas gerenciais por FURNAS Centrais Elétricas SA estão mais afinadas com preceitos regulatórios, ligados ao mercado, ou emancipatórios, ligados ao espírito público. Para tanto se realizou uma revisão da bibliografia referente ao assunto objetivando enquadrar as empresas na atual conjuntura sócio-econômica, aprofundar conhecimento concernente evolução do conceito de responsabilidade social corporativa, esclarecer emaranhado conceituai que envolve as ferramentas que compõem as "dimensões sociais do marketing" propor análise do uso de tais ferramentas sob enfoque da Teoria Crítica. Usou-se como método estudo de caso, os resultados foram obtidos a partir da análise livre do discurso de dirigentes, conseguidos por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, dos documentos disponibilizados pela empresa. Os dados revelam que prática das ferramentas que compõem as "dimensões sociais do marketing" por FURNAS Centrais Elétricas SA estão mais voltadas para legitimação da empresa, que para obter vantagem competitiva, de onde se conclui que está mais relacionada ao espírito público, denotando, por conseguinte, práticas substantivas.

Agenda social nos territórios pacificados: um estudo sobre o Programa Territórios da Paz à luz da construção teórica em gestão social

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar o Programa de Gestão Social em Territórios Pacificados – Territórios da Paz à luz da construção teórica da Gestão Social na academia. Com base na literatura sobre Gestão Social, buscou-se identificar as diferentes vertentes que orientam a sua discussão. Somado a isto, foram discutidos ao longo do referencial teórico questões que favorecem o entendimento do contexto no qual está inserido o Programa Territórios da Paz, tais como as favelas, política de segurança pública e o projeto de pacificação em curso na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Tendo em vista o discurso adotado pelo Programa Territórios da Paz, optou-se por analisa-lo a partir de algumas categorias de avaliação de processos participativos deliberativos, quais sejam: Processos de Discussão, Inclusão, Pluralismo e Bem Comum. Os dados foram coletados, em um primeiro momento, por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica. Em seguida, foram realizadas entrevistas junto aos gestores sociais responsáveis pela condução do programa estudado nos diferentes territórios. Em suma, os resultados apontam para a existência de espaços para discussão, contudo sem capacidade deliberativa. Em alguns momentos, as características do que foi denominado um Programa de Gestão Social se aproximam das características da Gestão Estratégica, cujo arcabouço conceitual e instrumental se apoia sobre mecanismos de tomada de decisão baseados na hierarquia e conhecimento técnico.

Parcerias público-privadas em educação: novos arranjos na agenda internacional da educação

A intensificação das dinâmicas da globalização nas últimas décadas tem impulsionado a influência de organizações e redes globais de múltiplos atores que atuam no campo das políticas educacionais. O movimento de desterritorialização do fazer político abre espaço para iniciativas de natureza diversa, tanto do ponto de vista da sua esfera de atuação quanto dos atores envolvidos. No contexto dessas novas articulações, iniciativas marcadas pelo envolvimento do setor privado na educação pública têm se desenvolvido em um arranjo complexo referido como parcerias público-privadas em educação. A presente pesquisa analisa essas parcerias em educação, que surgem em um cenário de transformações no próprio funcionamento e organização dos Estados e nas relações que se estabelecem para além das suas fronteiras. Tendo em vista a complexidade do tema e a fim de investigar como ele se traduz e se desenvolve localmente, três experiências são analisadas com maior profundidade: o Chile, com seu sistema de escolas subvencionadas, os Estados Unidos, com as charter schools e a Holanda, que tem seu sistema educacional historicamente estruturado a partir do conceito de school choice. A partir da análise conceitual sobre as parcerias público-privadas em educação e do aprofundamento da pesquisa nesses casos representativos, esta dissertação busca problematizar esse arranjo nas politicas públicas de educação e evidenciar como o seu desenvolvimento está articulado com instituições e processos que transcendem o enquadramento dos Estados-Nação.

Do empirismo para a ciência, na procura da eficiência conceptual e metodológica no treino da capoeira

Na actual conjuntura de crise, é necessária a emergência de um paradigma mais rentável e que analise os fenómenos na sua globalidade, mantendo a coerência do todo. Utilizando o desporto, mais concretamente a capoeira, pretende-se promover a desejada transformação do Homem de forma intencional e eficiente, através da rentabilização da modalidade quer nos seus objectivos imediatos quer mediatos. A generalidade do conhecimento sobre capoeira é baseado e veiculado sob a forma empírica, o que se reflecte no processo de operacionalização da modalidade. Procura-se então, iniciar a ruptura com o empirismo, através da aplicação de ferramentas já testadas, nomeadamente o Modelo de Desportos de Combate da taxonomia de Almada (1994), que permite desdobrar as variáveis básicas de movimento e identificar quais as que podem ser tratadas de forma rentável. Recorrendo a um elemento técnico da capoeira – a meia-lua de compasso –, procurou-se verificar se a análise realizada através do modelo poderia ser útil. Realizaram-se duas situações experimentais, de análise videográfica, que permitem conhecer os limites temporais sobre os quais a acção se pode dar, utilizando para a situação 1 uma amostra de n=13 capoeiristas, e para a situação 2 duas amostras de n1=12 capoeiristas de nível iniciado-intermédio, e n2=8 capoeiristas de nível avançado. Verificou-se, assim, que através da utilização do referido modelo, é possível identificar variáveis fundamentais para a compreensão do fenómeno e de limites a respeitar.

Uma cidade para pessoas: funcionalidade, racionalidade e emotividade nas relações mobiliário urbano, espaço público e cidadãos

This research investigates how functionality, rationality, and emotionality applied to urban furniture design contribute to the organization, legibility, and qualification of public spaces, according to different layouts, physical and visual qualities of the urban furniture as well as the quality of urban infrastructure that may influence the uses and appropriation of urban spaces by pedestrians, turning those spaces into socially centripetal or centrifugal places. The work consists of two parts. First refers to a bibliographical review concerning two main issues of the investigation: product design and legibility of public space, defining the conceptual and theoretical bases, linked to methodological strategies aimed at systemic planning and integrated management of urban furniture design and legibility of public spaces (sidewalks), that are necessary to define the existing relationships among the user s interface (pedestrians); product (urban artifacts); built environment (sidewalks). The second part refers to the achievement of empirical approach throughout visual analysis of public spaces and the functional and qualitative evaluation of the existing urban furniture in the central neighborhood of Cidade Alta, Natal, RN, according to the theoretical researched concepts and methodological procedures. The results expose the weaknesses and levels of intensity arising from the relations among public space, urban furniture, and users, revealing the need for theoretical and practical approaches which would help the decision-making in planning, designing and integrating innovative, sustainable, and ethical solutions in order to design attractive public spaces that could provide sociability and citizenship throughout integrated public management, city systemic thinking and urban identity. The suggested guidelines at the end of this research will provide the necessary strategies to design suitable urban furniture systems according to aesthetic and practical urban infrastructure and city context, aiming to ease visual and physical conflicts that may negatively interfere with the appropriation of public spaces by the citizens

Ribeira, técnica versus natureza: transformações em prol de um projeto de modernização (1860-1932)

The necessity of the insertion of the capital of Rio Grande do Norte in the world-wide commercial scene and its claim as the seat of political power, in ends of nineteenth and beginning of twentieth century, determined the direction of urban interventions undertaken by government to restructure the city. In that matter, there were several actions of improvements and embellishment in Natal, which had, as a starting point, the adequacy works of the port, located in the Ribeira quarter, with the aim of ending the physical isolation that reinforced its economic stagnation. Besides the problems faced in the opening bar of the Potengi River, and would complement the required improvements, other barriers demonstrate the tension established between the physic-geographic field and the man: the flooded and slope which connected Cidade Alta and Ribeira the first two quarters of the city.The execution of these works demanded knowledge whose domain and application it was for engineering. But, how the actions done for the engineers, in sense to transform natural areas into constructed spaces made possible the intentional conformation of the quarter of the Ribeira in a commercial and politician-administrative center, in the middle of the XIX century and beginning of the XX? Understand, therefore, the employment effects of technology on the physical-geographical Ribeira, is the objective of this work that uses theoretical and methodological procedures of Urban Environmental History, by analyzing the relationship between the environment and the man, mediated by knowledge and use of technologies. The documental research was used, as primary sources, the Messages of the Provincial Assembly Government that later became the Legislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Norte reports and articles on specialized publications, in addition to local newspapers. The work is structured in five chapters. First, some comments about Urban Environmental History (Chapter 1) supplemented with analysis of the conceptual construction of nature in the Contemporary Era and its application in the city (chapter 02), the following chapters (03 and 04) deal with the rise of engineers as a active group in the Brazilian government frameworks and their vision about the nature inside the urban environment and it is studied how the professional technicians dealt with the improvement work of the harbor and in the shock with the natural forces. Other works that would complement this "project" of modernization and had had natural obstacles to be removed the Ribeira flood and slope constitute the subject of the fifth chapter. Finally, some final considerations retake the initial discussions aiming an association between the technique and the nature as junction elements inside the process of constitution of a Modern Natal

UBS RN-7: proposta arquitetônica para um padrão flexível de unidade básica de saúde para a zona bioclimática 7 do RN, com ênfase na sustentabilidade ambiental

Standardization and sustainability: these two apparently antagonistic words find the challenge of uniting in a flexible architectonic proposal. This was the idea that motivated the proposal of this assignment, whose appearing is bound up with the necessity of thinking about standardized spaces that attend on functional criterias and environmental sustainability, in reply to an existing real demand. The assignment consists of an architectonic proposal for a flexible standard of a Basic Unit of Health for the bioclimatic zone 7 of RN (UBS RN-7), with emphasis in the environmental sustainability. The project contemplates innumerable involved variables, such as: obedience to the current law of the Health Ministry for the UBSs; formal/aesthetic aspects; criterias of expansiveness of the UBS I for the UBS II; relative aspects to the constructive rationality and, mainly, sustainability aspects. With the intention to unite the variables and, also, glimpsing a proposal that could reach a good functional performance, aesthetic, of environment comfort and energetic efficiency, it was also necessary to consider concepts about the flexibility of the envelopment. The elaboration of the architecture first draft was based on bibliographical research, conceptual studies and references, elaboration of the architectonic program and the draft development for the UBS port I and the UBS port II. To the end, an implantation data sheet for the project is proposed for the UBS standard project, where strategies of thermal isolation, shadowing and thermal inertia are adopted and combined to three possible types of lot, resulting in 24 possibilities of implantation

Espaço público e sociabilidade urbana: apropriações e significados dos espaços públicos na cidade contemporânea

Study public space is studying the city and its dynamics through a representation point. The changes that are observed in these spaces and in the relations established there, or with it, are related to changes that occurred in the city as a whole, in the urban way of living. Study public space allied to urban sociability permits an even better focus on this relation between people in these spaces and with the spaces and in the consequences and fragile aspects this relation can impose to people and cities. This work is aimed towards this relation between public space and urban sociability. Through a conceptual/theoretical discussion aims, specifically, comprehend how to establish and what is the relation between urban space and urban sociability (appropriation/perception of place, tendencies of seclusion), from an isolated analysis of each one of these themes in the contemporaneous city. The Brazilian public space has peculiar characteristics, arising from its historical process of construction, also influenced by the public sphere fragile construction that permeates it, as well as more recent variables such as the sensation of insecurity and commodification of these places. The urban sociability influences and is influenced along all this process of significance and reframing of the public space. The conceptual discussion about each isolate variable provides the necessary coverage for discussion and analysis of the relation between them and the consequence of this relation in the city, such as the notation of relevant experiences of this process of revaluation of the public space. The hereby search is not through a path to reestablish the relation as it already existed, but also for an understanding of the dynamic as is established today and for existing possibilities for maintenance and appreciation of the relation between people and the city by believing in its importance to urban life

O processo de urbanização de Mossorò: dos processos históricos à estrutura urbana atual

The general objective of this academic work is to analyze the relationship between the territorial division and the urban expansion process of Mossoró city, understood here as the production and occupation of space. The urban expansion in Mossoró, since its formation as settlement in 1772 until current days, identifies with the Brazilian urbanization process whose growth is determined by the capitalist development. Thus, the expansion was determined by several economical specializations imposed by the territorial division of work which occurs at an interregional level, and, sometimes at an international level. Then, each specialization determined a moment of the urban expansion of the city, as follows: a) The cattle farmer specialization, between 1772 and 1857, when the urban expansion was shy, is summarized to a commercial square that received goods from Aracati aiming to cover a wide rural area; b) The commercial emporium specialization, between 1857 and 1930, when the urban expansion took an important impulse with the concentration of public and private capitals; c) The salt industry and the agricultural-industrial exporter specialization inside a state of development policy, between 1930 and 1970, when the urban expansion, joined to the settlement of the working class in the urban soil, developed along an important axis -the railway; d) The render of services specialization inside a state of intervention policy, between 1970 and 1990, when the urban expansion was characterized by the accelerated growth rhythm, by the reuse of some spaces, and by space segregation of demanding people; e) The render of services policy inside a neoliberal state policy, since 1990 until current days, when the urban expansion reduced its rhythm abruptly, when only small alterations occurred in the existing spaces. It focused on social policies and on several slums eradication programs. Finally, the territorial structure is deeply articulated with others, no territorial, but economical, social and political, which happens at a national, regional and local rate. Only within a historical and conceptual panorama, it was possible to explain the urban expansion in Mossoró from its formation in 1772 until current days. Therefore, this work is a several discipline analysis of the urbanization process existing in Mossoró

Da escala médica de saúde à experiência social do saudável :diálogo entre os espaços dos bares e das academias fisiculturistas na cidade do Natal-RN

Currently, we attend a reverence of concepts ahead as health, life, youth and body. In we widen amount the ideals concerned to the healthful life, to the quality of life, the longevity and joviality and the extremities of the body represented by the illness, for the virus infection, the physical deficiency and the aging. Of the historical shades of the plague, of the hunger and the war that gagged the defenseless individual and its body, in the current days we increase the search for a full and powerful life, independent of a religious imaginary to predict the epidemic curse, the threat represented for the sick people and the incarnate divine anger in the death; or of medical science presented in the spaces of the technology and the physiology, being left fragile the social and psychological dimensions of the human confined to the patient issue and, finally, the commanded urban health politics in quantitative goals of hygienic cleaning, of the medical techniques and the education citizen. For beyond these instances, emerges in our days a plural, close and biographical agreement well of the body and welfare. On the other hand, an understanding of the healthful life and well-being that more certifies the presence of something the one that clear landmarks amongst normality and the irregularity, the esteem and the destructive vice: it has a projection of healthful life measures without conceptual models of body and health under the doctor-scientific standard occidental. This thematic one will confide in way to the enclosure for spaces to the muscles and fitness exercises and the bars from the city of Natal, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, while comprehensive interchange concerning as the individual comes dealing with the notion the body and health and, mainly, if perceiving inside of its body and its health. Amongst these two spaces of typical leisure of the modern urban phenomenon, the hedonism bodily with its muscles and salience and one another form of hedonism in the fruition of allowed drugs will be across itself in a dialogue about which social s relationships are really in game in an imaginary construction amongst an doctor-aesthetic ideal of health and the social and subjective experience in the option for a healthful life

A (re)significação conceptual nas práticas colaborativas com professores do Ensino Fundamental

The work objectified to apprehend the degree of the teachers' concept concerning the territory concept and to intervene with situations of critical reflections to accompany and to analyze the process of conceptual elaboration. It contemplates on the (new)meaning of knowledge and (new)elaboration of the concept in study done inside a pedagogic intervention. The Municipal School Dr. Julio Senna - Ceará-Mirim/RN and six (6) teacher-collaborators that taught in the 3rd and 4th grades of the fundamental teaching, constitutes the empiric field of the research. Its theoretical-methodological contributions are built in the studies of Vigotski (2000a, 2000b and 2001) on the formation process and development of concepts; in the methodology colaborate (Ibiapina (2004), Bartomé (1986), Kemmis and Mctaggart (1988), Arnal, Del Ricon and Latorre (1992), Pepper and Ghedin (2002), among others) and in the critical-reflexive conception of the Geography (Soares Júnior (2000 and 1994), Silva (1998), Raffestin (1993), Santos (1994), Felipe (1998), among others). The accomplishment of the work presupposed starting from the reflections on the following subjects: which the teachers' understanding in the school space concerning the territory concept? How does happen the process of conceptual construction territory for the teachers? The analysis of the teachers' previous knowledge on the concept in study, evidenced that its apprehensions on the attributes of the referred concept went mentioned the to light of the perceptible dimension of the real-concrete relationships of the reality linked to the degree of the spontaneous concepts and followed by the ideas of the traditional, humanistic and cultural geographical conceptions (positivism and phenomenology), restricting the territory meaning the notion of State-Nation and place of the men's dwelling. In the intervention process, it was verified to real possibility of the acquisition of indispensable scientific concepts to the process of (new)meaning conceptual of geographical knowledge through the continuous practice of the educational formation, when it was evidenced that the teacher-collaborators acquired high degrees of attributions of the significance of the territory concept to the they elaborate generalizations by means of analyses and syntheses of the concept-attribute (essential and multiples) of the reference conceptual in study

O pedagogo como agente de transformação social para além dos muros escolares

This thesis concerns the problem about the pedagogue actuation in the social education into no scholars places. It search to understand the context and the social pedagogue role to his praxis and formation that enlarger the possibilities of the social educative practices into no scholars places. In this direction, we developed an investigation about the actuation of the pedagogues-educators in Natal city, in the 2007-2010 periods, into Municipal Secretary of the Labor and Social Assistance (SEMTAS). Considering that pedagogues are regularly attached in social educators profession as municipals public employees, we re the objective to evaluate their role into the social executed in the no scholars places, with the focus in the environmental dimensions of theirs work s places, pedagogical organization, institutional management and the professional formation. It privileged in this research the Specialized Reference Center of Social Assistance II (CREAS II), the Passages Houses I, II and III, the Social-Educative Measures in Open Environment Execution Program of Natal city (PENSEMA) and the Pitimbú Educational Center (CEDUC-Pitimbú). To realize this study it developed a research with qualitative nature by critic ethnography approach privileging those information collected with the social pedagogue-educators of the mentioned places. Through the methodological procedures adopted; beyond the bibliographical review we remarked the documental research, the semi-structured interview, the questionnaires-routes and the field observations. The analytical results revealed that the politics to the social education in Brazil historically came been dimensioned by the fight of social movements demanding the fundamental rights to the excluded people; that the SEMTAS politics of social education present a relative basic social protection to the excluded children and young people specially into law view; that the politics of social education in Natal city it s close of the logic of sanitarian attention about the disadvantaged groups; that the conceptual, methodological and formatives fragilities needs to the social pedagogues-educators praxis into non scholars places made difficult the operation capacity of a educative proposition anchored in a institutional action guided by the idea of emancipator education; that the SEMTAS take face several difficulties to developed a web assistance as preview in the reception proposition elaborated by the social pedagogues-educators. However in despite the tensions we remarked the value of this potentiality to the non scholar social education in her attempt to constitute herself in a legitimate space to the pedagogue professional actuation. In despite the obstacles to work and formation quotidian, across those non scholar spaces in the municipalities institutes to the social politics, it demonstrated personal sensibility and professional creativity in learning mediations and educative action to the children and younger derived from exclusion process and the social iniquities