Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

#20 [updated] Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity - Clinical Version

People who are physically active have higher levels of health related fitness, and a lower risk profile for developing a number of disabling medical conditions and chronic diseases. However, despite considerable evidence of the benefits of regular physical activity, global levels of physical inactivity remain stubbornly high. In response, governments are looking to find ways to increase the physical activity of their populations.

On evolutionarily stable compositions of populations of interacting genotypes.

Consider an organism in which the genetic fitness of an individual depends to a large extent on its social interactions. Assuming the genotypes to differ only in the choice of strategies they adopt in social interactions, and equating the variation in genetic fitness to the mean payoff to an individual averaged over all possible encounters, we develop a dynamical model for the evolution of genotypic frequencies in such a population. Such a system is characterised by frequency dependent selection, and depending on the initial composition, the population evolves towards one of several possible compositions. We term as evolutionarily stable compositions (ESC) any such composition towards which a population can evolve and which is stable against small fluctuations in the frequencies of existing genotypes as well as to invasions by any other postulated genotype. We state the necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of all possible ESC's for any number of interacting genotypes. Our results conform to those derived earlier in connection with the concept of evolutionarily stable strategies only in the case of two interacting genotypes; when more than two genotypes interact the conditions under which various ESC's exist become far richer. We consider interactions with mixed strategists and show that in a conflict with pure strategists the optimal mixed strategist will be the only one to ultimately survive. We illustrate our approach by considering the specific case of a primitively social wasp.

Increased reproductive success in older female red kangaroos and the impact of harvesting

Wildlife harvesting has a long history in Australia, including obvious examples of overexploitation. Not surprisingly, there is scepticism that commercial harvesting can be undertaken sustainably. Kangaroo harvesting has been challenged regularly at Administrative Appeals Tribunals and elsewhere over the past three decades. Initially, the concern from conservation groups was sustainability of the harvest. This has been addressed through regular, direct monitoring that now spans > 30 years and a conservative harvest regime with a low risk of overharvest in the face of uncertainty. Opposition to the harvest now continues from animal rights groups whose concerns have shifted from overall harvest sustainability to side effects such as animal welfare, and changes to community structure, genetic composition and population age structure. Many of these concerns are speculative and difficult to address, requiring expensive data. One concern is that older females are the more successful breeders and teach their daughters optimal habitat and diet selection. The lack of older animals in a harvested population may reduce the fitness of the remaining individuals; implying population viability would also be compromised. This argument can be countered by the persistence of populations under harvesting without any obvious impairment to reproduction. Nevertheless, an interesting question is how age influences reproductive output. In this study, data collected from a number of red kangaroo populations across eastern Australia indicate that the breeding success of older females is up to 7-20% higher than that of younger females. This effect is smaller than that of body condition and the environment, which can increase breeding success by up to 30% and 60% respectively. Average age of mature females in a population may be reduced from 9 to 6 years old, resulting in a potential reduction in breeding success of 3-4%. This appears to be offset in harvested populations by improved condition of females from a reduction in kangaroo density. There is an important recommendation for management. The best insurance policy against overharvest and unwanted side effects is not research, which could be never-ending. Rather, it is a harvest strategy that includes safeguards against uncertainty such as harvest reserves, conservative quotas and regular monitoring. Research is still important in fine tuning that strategy and is most usefully incorporated as adaptive management where it can address the key questions on how populations respond to harvesting.

Variation in ecophysiology and carbon economy of invasive and native woody vines of riparian zones in south-eastern Queensland

Exotic and invasive woody vines are major environmental weeds of riparian areas, rainforest communities and remnant natural vegetation in coastal eastern Australia, where they smother standing vegetation, including large trees, and cause canopy collapse. We investigated, through glasshouse resource manipulative experiments, the ecophysiological traits that might facilitate faster growth, better resource acquisition and/or utilization and thus dominance of four exotic and invasive vines of South East Queensland, Australia, compared with their native counterparts. Relative growth rate was not significantly different between the two groups but water use efficiency (WUE) was higher in the native species while the converse was observed for light use efficiency (quantum efficiency, AQE) and maximum photosynthesis on a mass basis (Amax mass). The invasive species, as a group, also exhibited higher respiration load, higher light compensation point and higher specific leaf area. There were stronger correlations of leaf traits and greater structural (but not physiological) plasticity in invasive species than in their native counterparts. The scaling coefficients of resource use efficiencies (WUE, AQE and respiration efficiency) as well as those of fitness (biomass accumulated) versus many of the performance traits examined did not differ between the two species-origin groups, but there were indications of significant shifts in elevation (intercept values) and shifts along common slopes in many of these relationships – signalling differences in carbon economy (revenue returned per unit energy invested) and/or resource usage. Using ordination and based on 14 ecophysiological attributes, a fair level of separation between the two groups was achieved (51.5% explanatory power), with AQE, light compensation point, respiration load, WUE, specific leaf area and leaf area ratio, in decreasing order, being the main drivers. This study suggests similarity in trait plasticity, especially for physiological traits, but there appear to be fundamental differences in carbon economy and resource conservation between native and invasive vine species.

Doctors shouldn’t be forced to dob in unfit drivers

Few states mandate that doctors or other health professionals must report unfit drivers to licensing authorities – and for good reason. Driving is an everyday practice for many Australians, but that doesn’t mean it’s a simple task. It takes several years for crash rates among young drivers to decline, and driving performance can be affected at any time by fatigue, distraction and impairment by alcohol or drugs...

Getting older drivers off the road won't solve safety problems

When an older driver has a crash with tragic consequences, there are calls for stricter licensing controls to detect “unfit” drivers and take their licences away, typically focusing on those aged 75 or over. When the crash records for older drivers are compared across jurisdictions, however, there is no observable impact of any restrictions. This includes compulsory re-testing, which is strongly advocated by the public but is not supported by the research.

Bacterial and fungal community composition over time in chicken litter with high or low moisture content

1. Changes in bacterial and fungal communities in chicken litter with high and low moisture content over a five week period during a single chicken grow out cycle in a poultry shed in subtropical Australia were investigated to study the association between specific microbes and odour production. 2. Microbial biomass, as indicated by DNA yields, was higher and community composition was more dynamic over time in moist compared with dry chicken litter. 3. Bacillus, Atopostipes and Aspergillus species increased in relative abundance in moist chicken litter samples over time reflecting the relatively high fitness and hence activity of these specific bacteria and this specific fungus in this environment.

Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess the impact of exercise referral schemes on physical activity and health outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and ongoing trial registries up to October 2009. We also checked study references. Study selection - Design: randomised controlled trials or non-randomised controlled (cluster or individual) studies published in peer review journals. - Population: sedentary individuals with or without medical diagnosis. - Exercise referral schemes defined as: clear referrals by primary care professionals to third party service providers to increase physical activity or exercise, physical activity or exercise programmes tailored to individuals, and initial assessment and monitoring throughout programmes. - Comparators: usual care, no intervention, or alternative exercise referral schemes. Results Eight randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, comparing exercise referral schemes with usual care (six trials), alternative physical activity intervention (two), and an exercise referral scheme plus a self determination theory intervention (one). Compared with usual care, follow-up data for exercise referral schemes showed an increased number of participants who achieved 90-150 minutes of physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week (pooled relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.30) and a reduced level of depression (pooled standardised mean difference −0.82, −1.28 to −0.35). Evidence of a between group difference in physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity or in other health outcomes was inconsistent at follow-up. We did not find any difference in outcomes between exercise referral schemes and the other two comparator groups. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with specific medical diagnoses. Substantial heterogeneity in the quality and nature of the exercise referral schemes across studies might have contributed to the inconsistency in outcome findings. Conclusions Considerable uncertainty remains as to the effectiveness of exercise referral schemes for increasing physical activity, fitness, or health indicators, or whether they are an efficient use of resources for sedentary people with or without a medical diagnosis.

Rapid genome wide mapping of phosphine resistance loci by a simple regional averaging analysis in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum

Background Next-generation sequencing technology is an important tool for the rapid, genome-wide identification of genetic variations. However, it is difficult to resolve the ‘signal’ of variations of interest and the ‘noise’ of stochastic sequencing and bioinformatic errors in the large datasets that are generated. We report a simple approach to identify regional linkage to a trait that requires only two pools of DNA to be sequenced from progeny of a defined genetic cross (i.e. bulk segregant analysis) at low coverage (<10×) and without parentage assignment of individual SNPs. The analysis relies on regional averaging of pooled SNP frequencies to rapidly scan polymorphisms across the genome for differential regional homozygosity, which is then displayed graphically. Results Progeny from defined genetic crosses of Tribolium castaneum (F4 and F19) segregating for the phosphine resistance trait were exposed to phosphine to select for the resistance trait while the remainders were left unexposed. Next generation sequencing was then carried out on the genomic DNA from each pool of selected and unselected insects from each generation. The reads were mapped against the annotated T. castaneum genome from NCBI (v3.0) and analysed for SNP variations. Since it is difficult to accurately call individual SNP frequencies when the depth of sequence coverage is low, variant frequencies were averaged across larger regions. Results from regional SNP frequency averaging identified two loci, tc_rph1 on chromosome 8 and tc_rph2 on chromosome 9, which together are responsible for high level resistance. Identification of the two loci was possible with only 5-7× average coverage of the genome per dataset. These loci were subsequently confirmed by direct SNP marker analysis and fine-scale mapping. Individually, homozygosity of tc_rph1 or tc_rph2 results in only weak resistance to phosphine (estimated at up to 1.5-2.5× and 3-5× respectively), whereas in combination they interact synergistically to provide a high-level resistance >200×. The tc_rph2 resistance allele resulted in a significant fitness cost relative to the wild type allele in unselected beetles over eighteen generations. Conclusion We have validated the technique of linkage mapping by low-coverage sequencing of progeny from a simple genetic cross. The approach relied on regional averaging of SNP frequencies and was used to successfully identify candidate gene loci for phosphine resistance in T. castaneum. This is a relatively simple and rapid approach to identifying genomic regions associated with traits in defined genetic crosses that does not require any specialised statistical analysis.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Assessing the effectiveness of High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) for smoking cessation in women: HIIT to quit study protocol

Background: Smoking and physical inactivity are major risk factors for heart disease. Linking strategies that promote improvements in fitness and assist quitting smoking has potential to address both these risk factors simultaneously. The objective of this study is to compare the effects of two exercise interventions (high intensity interval training (HIIT) and lifestyle physical activity) on smoking cessation in female smokers. Method/design: This study will use a randomised controlled trial design. Participants: Women aged 18–55 years who smoke ≥ 5 cigarettes/day, and want to quit smoking. Intervention: all participants will receive usual care for quitting smoking. Group 1 - will complete two gym-based supervised HIIT sessions/week and one home-based HIIT session/week. At each training session participants will be asked to complete four 4-min (4 × 4 min) intervals at approximately 90 % of maximum heart rate interspersed with 3- min recovery periods. Group 2 - participants will receive a resource pack and pedometer, and will be asked to use the 10,000 steps log book to record steps and other physical activities. The aim will be to increase daily steps to 10,000 steps/day. Analysis will be intention to treat and measures will include smoking cessation, withdrawal and cravings, fitness, physical activity, and well-being. Discussion: The study builds on previous research suggesting that exercise intensity may influence the efficacy of exercise as a smoking cessation intervention. The hypothesis is that HIIT will improve fitness and assist women to quit smoking.

Chemical and source characterisation of size-segregated urban air particulate matter

Recent epidemiological studies have shown a consistent association of the mass concentration of urban air thoracic (PM10) and fine (PM2.5) particles with mortality and morbidity among cardiorespiratory patients. However, the chemical characteristics of different particulate size ranges and the biological mechanisms responsible for these adverse health effects are not well known. The principal aims of this thesis were to validate a high volume cascade impactor (HVCI) for the collection of particulate matter for physicochemical and toxicological studies, and to make an in-depth chemical and source characterisation of samples collected during different pollution situations. The particulate samples were collected with the HVCI, virtual impactors and a Berner low pressure impactor in six European cities: Helsinki, Duisburg, Prague, Amsterdam, Barcelona and Athens. The samples were analysed for particle mass, common ions, total and water-soluble elements as well as elemental and organic carbon. Laboratory calibration and field comparisons indicated that the HVCI can provide a unique large capacity, high efficiency sampling of size-segregated aerosol particles. The cutoff sizes of the recommended HVCI configuration were 2.4, 0.9 and 0.2 μm. The HVCI mass concentrations were in a good agreement with the reference methods, but the chemical composition of especially the fine particulate samples showed some differences. This implies that the chemical characterization of the exposure variable in toxicological studies needs to be done from the same HVCI samples as used in cell and animal studies. The data from parallel, low volume reference samplers provide valuable additional information for chemical mass closure and source assessment. The major components of PM2.5 in the virtual impactor samples were carbonaceous compounds, secondary inorganic ions and sea salt, whereas those of coarse particles (PM2.5-10) were soil-derived compounds, carbonaceous compounds, sea salt and nitrate. The major and minor components together accounted for 77-106% and 77-96% of the gravimetrically-measured masses of fine and coarse particles, respectively. Relatively large differences between sampling campaigns were observed in the organic carbon content of the PM2.5 samples as well as the mineral composition of the PM2.5-10 samples. A source assessment based on chemical tracers suggested clear differences in the dominant sources (e.g. traffic, residential heating with solid fuels, metal industry plants, regional or long-range transport) between the sampling campaigns. In summary, the field campaigns exhibited different profiles with regard to particulate sources, size distribution and chemical composition, thus, providing a highly useful setup for toxicological studies on the size-segregated HVCI samples.

Coordination and plasticity in leaf anatomical traits of invasive and native vine species

Premise of the study: Plant invasiveness can be promoted by higher values of adaptive traits (e.g., photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation), greater plasticity and coordination of these traits, and by higher and positive relative influence of these functionalities on fitness, such as increasing reproductive output. However, the data set for this premise rarely includes linkages between epidermal–stomatal traits, leaf internal anatomy, and physiological performance.• Methods: Three ecological pairs of invasive vs. noninvasive (native) woody vine species of South-East Queensland, Australia were investigated for trait differences in leaf morphology and anatomy under varying light intensity. The linkages of these traits with physiological performance (e.g., water-use efficiency, photosynthesis, and leaf construction cost) and plant adaptive traits of specific leaf area, biomass, and relative growth rates were also explored.• Key results: Except for stomatal size, mean leaf anatomical traits differed significantly between the two groups. Plasticity of traits and, to a very limited extent, their phenotypic integration were higher in the invasive relative to the native species. ANOVA, ordination, and analysis of similarity suggest that for leaf morphology and anatomy, the three functional strategies contribute to the differences between the two groups in the order phenotypic plasticity > trait means > phenotypic integration.• Conclusions: The linkages demonstrated in the study between stomatal complex/gross anatomy and physiology are scarce in the ecological literature of plant invasiveness, but the findings suggest that leaf anatomical traits need to be considered routinely as part of weed species assessment and in the worldwide leaf economic spectrum.

Enterprise education: Revisiting Whitehead to satisfy Gibbs

Purpose – This paper seeks to demonstrate that a truly learner-centred enterprise education programme can be developed within a traditional business school environment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper unites the broad teaching philosophy of Alfred Whitehead with that of Allan Gibbs’s enterprise specific teaching philosophies to consider the fitness of the recently developed hic et nunc enterprise framework. This is largely achieved by testing the framework for constructive alignment. Findings – It is argued that the hic et nunc framework is consistent with the philosophies of both Whitehead and Gibb. Further, the framework illustrates a process through which enterprise education programmes can be developed independently of any pressures to conform to more traditional pedagogy. Practical implications – Through careful consideration of the process of constructive alignment, an analytical approach to developing and/or refining an enterprise education program exists. Importantly, it represents an approach that is explicitly learner-centred, and therefore free from the constraints of the environment within which the programme is delivered. Originality/value – This paper brings to life the wonderful ideas of the great philosopher, Alfred Whitehead, combining them with the contemporary ideas of Allan Gibb. In doing so, the complementary nature of their thoughts helps to illustrate the minimal requirements of a learner-centred approach to enterprise education