Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Establishment of a Cross-European Field Site Network in the ALARM Project for Assessing Large-Scale Changes in Biodiversity

The field site network (FSN) plays a central role in conducting joint research within all Assessing Large-scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods (ALARM) modules and provides a mechanism for integrating research on different topics in ALARM on the same site for measuring multiple impacts on biodiversity. The network covers most European climates and biogeographic regions, from Mediterranean through central European and boreal to subarctic. The project links databases with the European-wide field site network FSN, including geographic information system (GIS)-based information to characterise the test location for ALARM researchers for joint on-site research. Maps are provided in a standardised way and merged with other site-specific information. The application of GIS for these field sites and the information management promotes the use of the FSN for research and to disseminate the results. We conclude that ALARM FSN sites together with other research sites in Europe jointly could be used as a future backbone for research proposals

A phosphorus analogue of Bis(eta(4)-cyclobutadiene)iron(0)

P makes it possible: The convenient oxidative synthesis of the 16-electron organophosphorus iron sandwich complex [Fe(4-P2C2tBu2)2] suggests that the elusive all-carbon complex [Fe(4-C4H4)2] is a viable synthetic target.

A phosphorus analogue of Bis(eta(4)-cyclobutadiene)iron(0)

Iron is a pivotal element in organometallic chemistry, enabling fundamental insights with high-impact applications.[1] Ferrocene derivatives have countless uses,[2] and the recent advances in iron catalysis are equally impressive.[3]

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

Homoleptic Diphosphacyclobutadiene Complexes [M(η4-P2C2R2)2]x− (M=Fe, Co; x=0, 1)

The preparation and comprehensive characterization of a series of homoleptic sandwich complexes containing diphosphacyclobutadiene ligands are reported. Compounds [K([18]crown-6)(thf)2][Fe(hapto4-P2C2tBu2)2] (K1), [K([18]crown-6)(thf)2][C(h4-P2C2tBu2)2] (K2), and [K([18]crown-6)(thf)2][Co(hapto4-P2C2Ad2)2] (K3, Ad=adamantyl) were obtained from reactions of [K([18crown-6)(thf)2][M(hapto4-C14H10)2] (M=Fe, Co) with tBuCP (1, 2), or with AdCP (3). Neutral sandwiches [M(hapto4-P2C2tBu2)2] (4: M=Fe 5: M=Co) were obtained by oxidizing 1 and 2 with [Cp2Fe]PF6. Cyclic voltammetry and spectro-electrochemistry indicate that the two [M(hapto4-P2C2tBu2)2]-/[M(hapto4-P2C2tBu2)2] moieties can be reversibly interconverted by one electron oxidation and reduction, respectively. Complexes 1–5 were characterized by multinuclear NMR, EPR (1 and 5), UV/Vis,and Moessbauer spectroscopies (1 and 4), mass spectrometry (4 and 5), and microanalysis (1–3). The molecular structures of 1–5 were determined by using X-ray crystallography. Essentially D2d-symmetric structures were found for all five complexes, which show the two 1,3-diphosphacyclobutadiene rings in a staggered orientation. Density functional theory calculations revealed the importance of covalent metal–ligand pi bonding in 1–5. Possible oxidation state assignments for the metal ions are discussed.