State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Optimal bounded control of first-passage failure of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems with wide-band random excitation

The optimal bounded control of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems with wide-band random excitation for minimizing their first-passage failure is investigated. First, a stochastic averaging method for multi-degrees-of-freedom (MDOF) strongly nonlinear quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems with wide-band stationary random excitations using generalized harmonic functions is proposed. Then, the dynamical programming equations and their associated boundary and final time conditions for the control problems of maximizinig reliability and maximizing mean first-passage time are formulated based on the averaged It$\ddot{\rm o}$ equations by applying the dynamical programming principle. The optimal control law is derived from the dynamical programming equations and control constraints. The relationship between the dynamical programming equations and the backward Kolmogorov equation for the conditional reliability function and the Pontryagin equation for the conditional mean first-passage time of optimally controlled system is discussed. Finally, the conditional reliability function, the conditional probability density and mean of first-passage time of an optimally controlled system are obtained by solving the backward Kolmogorov equation and Pontryagin equation. The application of the proposed procedure and effectiveness of control strategy are illustrated with an example.

Deficits in sensory prediction are related to delusional ideation in healthy individuals.

Motor control strongly relies on neural processes that predict the sensory consequences of self-generated actions. Previous research has demonstrated deficits in such sensory-predictive processes in schizophrenic patients and these low-level deficits are thought to contribute to the emergence of delusions of control. Here, we examined the extent to which individual differences in sensory prediction are associated with a tendency towards delusional ideation in healthy participants. We used a force-matching task to quantify sensory-predictive processes, and administered questionnaires to assess schizotypy and delusion-like thinking. Individuals with higher levels of delusional ideation showed more accurate force matching suggesting that such thinking is associated with a reduced tendency to predict and attenuate the sensory consequences of self-generated actions. These results suggest that deficits in sensory prediction in schizophrenia are not simply consequences of the deluded state and are not related to neuroleptic medication. Rather they appear to be stable, trait-like characteristics of an individual, a finding that has important implications for our understanding of the neurocognitive basis of delusions.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

Nd65Al10Fe25-xCox (x=0,5,10) bulk metallic glasses with wide supercooled liquid regions

Bulk metallic glasses of Nd65Al10Fe25-xCox (x=0,5,10) have been prepared in the form of 3 mm diam rods. Results of differential scanning calrimetry, dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA), and x-ray diffraction are presented for these alloys. It is shown that the glass transition and crystallization have been observed by DMTA. The reduced glass transition temperature of these glasses, defined as the ratio between the glass transition temperature T-g and the melting temperature T-l is in the range from 0.55 to 0.62. All these glasses have a large supercooled liquid region (SLR), ranging from 80 to 130 K. The high value of reduced glass transition temperature and wide SLR agree with their good glass formation ability.

Large eddy simulations for fan-OGV broadband noise prediction

The work in this paper forms part of a project on the use of large eddy simulation (LES) for broadband rotor-stator interaction noise prediction. Here we focus on LES of the flow field near a fan blade trailing edge. The first part of the paper aims to evaluate LES suitability for predicting the near-field velocity field for a blunt NACA-0012 airfoil at moderate Reynolds numbers (2× 10 5 and 4× 10 5). Preliminary computations of turbulent mean and root-mean-square velocities, as well as energy spectra at the trailing edge, are compared with those from a recent experiment.1 The second part of the paper describes preliminary progress on an LES calculation of the fan wakes on a fan rig. 2 The CFD code uses a mixed element unstructured mesh with a median dual control volume. A wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity sub-grid scale model is employed. A very small amount of numerical dissipation is added in the numerical scheme to keep the compressible solver stable. Further results for the fan turbulentmean and RMS velocity, and especially the aeroacoustics field will be presented at a later stage. Copyright © 2008 by Qinling LI, Nigel Peake & Mark Savill.

Rotor - Stator broadband noise prediction

In this paper a semi analytic model for rotor - stator broadband noise is presented. The work can be split into two sections. The first examines the distortion of the rotor wake in mean swirling flow, downstream of the fan. Previous work by Cooper and Peake4 is extended to include dissipative effects. In the second section we consider the interaction of this gust with the downstream stator row. We examine the way in which an unsteady pressure field is generated by the interaction of this wake flow with the stator blades and obtain estimates for the radiated noise. A new method is presented to extend the well known LINSUB code to the third dimension to capture the effect of the spanwise wavenumber and stator lean and sweep. Copyright © 2008 by Adrian Lloyd and Nigel Peake.

Fabrication of 25nm wide gold lines using nanometer scale lithography and ionized cluster beam deposition

It becomes increasingly difficult to make continuous metal lines with well defined thickness and edges by the lift-off technique as the line width is decreased. We describe in this paper a technique in which the combination of high resolution electron beam lithography and ionized cluster beam (ICB) deposition has enabled very high quality gold lines ({all equal to}25nm wide) to be obtained on thick single crystal silicon substrates. © 1990.

A Semi-Empirical Equation of Penetration Depth on Concrete Target Impacted by Ogive-Nose Projectiles

In this paper, the penetration process of ogive-nose projectiles into the semi-infinite concrete target is investigated by the dimensional analysis method and FEM simulation. With the dimensional analysis, main non-dimensional parameters which control the penetration depth are obtained with some reasonable hypothesis. Then, a new semi-empirical equation is present based on the original work of Forrestal et al., has only two non-dimensional combined variables with definite physical meanings. To verify this equation, prediction results are compared with experiments in a wide variation region of velocity. Then, a commercial FEM code, LS-DYNA, is used to simulate the complex penetration process, that also show the novel semi-empirical equation is reasonable for determining the penetration depth in a concrete target.