Validation of short tandem repeat analysis for the investigation of cases of disputed paternity

This study details validation of two separate multiplex STR systems for use in paternity investigations. These are the Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) developed by the UK Forensic Science Service and the PowerPlex 1 multiplex commercially available from Promega Inc. (Madison, WI, USA). These multiplexes contain 12 different STR systems (two are duplicated in the two systems). Population databases from Caucasian, Asian and Afro-Caribbean populations have been compiled for all loci. In all but two of the 36 STR/ethnic group combinations, no evidence was obtained to indicate inconsistency with Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. Empirical and theoretical approaches have been taken to validate these systems for paternity testing. Samples from 121 cases of disputed paternity were analysed using established Single Locus Probe (SLP) tests currently in use, and also using the two multiplex STR systems. Results of all three test systems were compared and no non-conformities in the conclusions were observed, although four examples of apparent germ line mutations in the STR systems were identified. The data was analysed to give information on expected paternity indices and exclusion rates for these STR systems. The 12 systems combined comprise a highly discriminating test suitable for paternity testing. 99.96% of non-fathers are excluded from paternity on two or more STR systems. Where no exclusion is found, Paternity Index (PI) values of > 10,000 are expected in > 96% of cases.

Interaction of visual and haptic information in simulated environments: texture perception

This paper describes experiments relating to the perception of the roughness of simulated surfaces via the haptic and visual senses. Subjects used a magnitude estimation technique to judge the roughness of “virtual gratings” presented via a PHANToM haptic interface device, and a standard visual display unit. It was shown that under haptic perception, subjects tended to perceive roughness as decreasing with increased grating period, though this relationship was not always statistically significant. Under visual exploration, the exact relationship between spatial period and perceived roughness was less well defined, though linear regressions provided a reliable approximation to individual subjects’ estimates.

Proposed best practice for statisticians in the reporting and publication of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community.

The potential for bias in reporting of industry-sponsored clinical trials

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

Modelling of surface identifying characteristics using Fourier series

Texture and small-scale surface details are widely recognised as playing an important role in the haptic identification of objects. In order to simulate realistic textures in haptic virtual environments, it has become increasingly necessary to identify a robust technique for modelling of surface profiles. This paper describes a method whereby Fourier series spectral analysis is employed in order to describe the measured surface profiles of several characteristic surfaces. The results presented suggest that a bandlimited Fourier series can be used to provide a realistic approximation to surface amplitude profiles.

Depreciation, income distribution and the UK REIT

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider prospects for UK REITs, which were introduced on 1 January 2007. It specifically focuses on the potential influence of depreciation and expenditure on income and distributions. Design/methodology/approach – First, the ways in which depreciation can affect vehicle earnings and value are discussed. This is then set in the context of the specific rules and features of REITs. An analysis using property income and expenditure data from the Investment Property Databank (IPD) then assesses what gross and net income for a UK REIT might have been like for the period 1984-2003. Findings – A UK REIT must distribute at least 90 per cent of net income from its property rental business. Expenditure therefore plays a significant part in determining what funds remain for distribution. Over 1984-2003, expenditure has absorbed 20 per cent of gross income and been a source of earnings volatility, which would have been exacerbated by gearing. Practical implications – Expenditure must take place to help UK REITs maintain and renew their real estate portfolios. In view of this, investors should moderate expectations of a high and stable income return, although it may well still be so relative to alternative investments. Originality/value – Previous literature on depreciation has not quantified amounts spent on portfolios to keep depreciation at those rates. Nor, to our knowledge, has its ideas been placed in the indirect investor context.

Estudo da influência dos alelos do HLA classe I e II e do polimorfismo dos genes de citocinas na infecção pelo HTLV-1

INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus linfotrópico para células T humanas (HTLV-1) é o principal agente causador da Paraparesia Espástica Tropical / Mielopatia associada ao HTLV-1 (PET/MAH) e da Leucemia da célula T do Adulto (LTA). A maioria dos indivíduos infectados permanece assintomática, somente 2 a 5% irão desenvolver uma das duas doenças. Fatores da interação HTLV-1/ hospedeiro estão envolvidos no risco de desenvolver doença. A lesão neurológica na PET/MAH parece ser consequência de uma reação inflamatória, desencadeada pelo reconhecimento de células infectadas por linfócitos T citotóxicos, com consequente liberação de citocinas e lesão medular. OBJETIVO: Identificar marcadores genéticos, que possam ajudar no prognóstico e tratamento dos pacientes portadores do HTLV-1. MÉTODOS: Nas amostras de 117 portadores do HTLV-1 assintomáticos e 171 pacientes com acometimento neurológico em acompanhamento na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, foram realizadas as tipificações dos genes do HLA Classe I e II, dos polimorfismos dos genes das citocinas -308TNF-\03B1,-174IL-6, +874IFN-\03B3, códon 10 e 25TGF-\03B21 e -1082 - 819-592IL-10, e a quantificação da carga proviral. Os dados foram organizados em um banco de dados no programa SPSS. As frequências alélicas e genotípicas foram obtidas por contagem direta. O equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg foi avaliado para os polimorfismos das citocinas no sitio http://bioinfo.iconcologia.net/ubbweb/SNPStats_web, em relação ao HLA foram utilizadas as ferramentas disponíveis no sítio \201CLos Alamos HIV database tools\201D. As comparações entre os grupos foram realizadas através de tabelas de contingência 2x2 (quiquadrado, exato de Fisher e odds ratios), valores de p\22640,05 foram considerados significantes RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: O alelo A*02 não influencia a condição clínica nem os níveis da carga proviral. Os alelos A*29 e B*44 foram mais frequentes entre os indivíduos assintomáticos e a sua presença influenciou os níveis da carga proviral sugerindo proteção ao desenvolvimento de doença neurológica. O alelo A*68 foi mais frequente entre os pacientes com doença neurológica, porém sua presença não influenciou nos níveis da carga proviral. O alelo C*04 foi mais frequente entre os portadores assintomáticos e não influenciou os níveis de carga proviral, já o alelo DRB1*03 predominou entre os pacientes com doença neurológica e a sua presença entre os indivíduos assintomáticos acarretou níveis mais elevados de carga proviral, sugerindo ser um possível fator de risco para o desenvolvimento de doença neurológica. Na análise do polimorfismo genético das citocinas, o polimorfismo de IL-10, com perfil fenotípico de baixo produtor da citocina foi mais frequente no grupo dos assintomáticos, enquanto que o fenótipo de produtor intermediário predominou entre os sintomáticos. O perfil fenotípico da população estudada foi caracterizado como: baixo produtor da citocina -308TNF-\03B1, intermediário a alto produtor para códon 10 e códon 25 TGF-\03B2, baixo a intermediário produtor para -1082,-819,- 592 IL-10, alto produtor para -174 IL-6 e baixo a intermediário produtor para +874IFN-\03B3

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the UK

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD UK database over the period 1981 to 2003 than normally distributed risk models. This finding mirrors results in the US and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroskedastic, but the characteristic exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time – yet it may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non‐systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with normally distributed investment risk. The results, therefore, indicate that multi‐risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite‐variance statistics are ineffective in the real estate context

Benchmarking and valuation issues in measuring depreciation for European office markets

Purpose – The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation-based data. These problems relate to inconsistent valuation regimes and the difficulties in finding appropriate benchmarks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a case study of seven major office locations around Europe and attempts to determine ten-year rental value depreciation rates based on a longitudinal approach using IPD, CBRE and BNP Paribas datasets. Findings – The depreciation rates range from a 5 per cent PA depreciation rate in Frankfurt to a 2 per cent appreciation rate in Stockholm. The results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in applying this method with inconsistent data. Research limitations/implications – The paper has methodological implications for measuring property investment depreciation and provides an example of the problems in adopting theoretically sound approaches with inconsistent information. Practical implications – Valuations play an important role in performance measurement and cross border investment decision making and, therefore, knowledge of inconsistency of valuation practice aids decision making and informs any application of valuation-based data in the attainment of depreciation rates. Originality/value – The paper provides new insights into the use of property market valuation data in a cross-border context, insights that previously had been anecdotal and unproven in nature.

Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings

The final warming of the stratospheric polar vortex at the end of northern hemisphere winter is examined in ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data and an ensemble of chemistry climate models, using 20 years of data from each. In some years the final warming is found to occur first in the mid-stratosphere, and in others to occur first in the upper stratosphere. The strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, refraction of planetary waves, and the altitudes at which the planetary waves break in the northern extratropics lead to this difference in the vertical profile of the final warming. Years in which the final warming occurs first in the mid-stratosphere show, on average, a more negative NAO pattern in April mean sea level pressure than years in which the warming occurs first in the upper stratosphere. Thus, in the northern hemisphere, additional predictive skill of tropospheric climate in April can be gained from a knowledge of the vertical profile of the stratospheric final warming.