Fertilisers and insect herbivores: a meta-analysis

Despite the importance of a thorough understanding of the effect of synthetic fertiliser on insect population dynamics, existing literature is conflicting and an area of intense debate. Here, a categorical random-effects meta-analysis and a vote count meta-analysis are employed to examine the effects of nitrogen(N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and NPK fertiliser on insect population dynamics. In agreement with the general consensus, insects were found to respond positively, overall, to fertilisers. Sucking insects showed a much stronger response to fertilisers than chewing insects. The environment in which a study is conducted can have a marked effect on insect responses to fertiliser, with natural environments showing the potential for buffering effects of nitrogen fertilisers in particular. As well as highlighting the potential shortfall in the amount of research investigating particularly the effects of potassium and phosphorus, this study provides an invaluable flag post in the ongoing research investigating fertiliser effects on ecosystems.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Reported assembly scenes in Greek Tragedy

This paper presents a detailed consideration of the three democratic assembly meetings that are reported in Greek tragedy. The three scenes in their different ways reveal a preoccupation with a tension between elite rhetoric and popular wisdom in a democracy. Behind this preoccupation lies a shared assumption: that many people attended assemblies expecting their minds to be made up; and that persuasive oratory and the popular judgment of persuasive oratory could have a decisive influence on a vote.

How large is congressional dependence in agriculture. Bayesian inference about ‘scale’ and ‘scope’ in measuring a spatial externality

The political economy literature on agriculture emphasizes influence over political outcomes via lobbying conduits in general, political action committee contributions in particular and the pervasive view that political preferences with respect to agricultural issues are inherently geographic. In this context, ‘interdependence’ in Congressional vote behaviour manifests itself in two dimensions. One dimension is the intensity by which neighboring vote propensities influence one another and the second is the geographic extent of voter influence. We estimate these facets of dependence using data on a Congressional vote on the 2001 Farm Bill using routine Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures and Bayesian model averaging, in particular. In so doing, we develop a novel procedure to examine both the reliability and the consequences of different model representations for measuring both the ‘scale’ and the ‘scope’ of spatial (geographic) co-relations in voting behaviour.

If the British left: agricultural policy outside the CAP?

If the Conservative party wins Britain’s General Election in 2015 the incoming Government intends to negotiate a new settlement with the EU, and then hold an in-out referendum. Opinion polls suggest a narrow majority would vote to leave. To exercise an informed choice the electorate would need to know what feasible alternatives are available, so that these can be assessed and debated. Furthermore, in the event of a no vote the Government must be ready to implement its alternative strategy: Plan B. This implies that both a new EU settlement, and Plan B, need to be negotiated concurrently. There has been no serious attempt to explain what Plan B would mean for UK farm policy. Would, for example, British farmers continue to receive the level of support that they currently enjoy; would support be more focussed on environmental objectives? WTO rules on most-favoured-nation treatment and regional trade agreements would apply. Could a WTO compatible agri-food trade agreement be negotiated with its former EU partners, or would Irish and Brazilian beef face the same tariff barriers on imports into the British market? For the EU, the loss of a major net contributor to EU finances could result in a re-examination of the CAP budget.

Risk aversion, overconfidence and private information as determinants of majority thresholds

We present and experimentally test a theoretical model of majority threshold determination as a function of voters’ risk preferences. The experimental results confirm the theoretical prediction of a positive correlation between the voter's risk aversion and the corresponding preferred majority threshold. Furthermore, the experimental results show that a voter's preferred majority threshold negatively relates to the voter's confidence about how others will vote. Moreover, in a treatment in which individuals receive a private signal about others’ voting behaviour, the confidence-related motivation of behaviour loses ground to the signal's strength.

After the referendum: options for a constitutional convention

Whatever the result of Scotland’s independence referendum, careful constitutional thinking will be needed. If Scots vote Yes, Scotland will need a new constitution and the rest of the UK will have to rethink its governing structures. Even in the event of a No vote, everyone agrees that the shape of the Union will need to change over the coming years. This paper examines how such constitution-making should take place. It sets out the options, gathers evidence from around the world on how those options might work, and weighs the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. It concludes that constitutional proposals in the UK should best be developed by a convention comprising a mixture of ordinary members of the public and politicians; these proposals should be put to a referendum. This approach, the paper argues, offers the best route to high-quality debate, stronger democratic engagement, and, ultimately, deeper legitimacy for our governing structures.

Is the future of electoral reform local?

The Electoral Reform Society has recently published two reports putting the case for electoral reform in local government. These suggest acceptance, in the wake of defeat in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum, that the group’s ultimate goal of change to the Westminster electoral system is unlikely to be fulfilled soon and that a more gradual strategy is therefore needed. This paper examines this shift by asking three questions. First, is Westminster electoral reform really a dead letter? Second, is local electoral reform more likely—and, if so, just how much more likely? Third, would local electoral reform matter in itself?

On fusion for robust motion segmentation

While a multitude of motion segmentation algorithms have been presented in the literature, there has not been an objective assessment of different approaches to fusing their outputs. This paper investigates the application of 4 different fusion schemes to the outputs of 3 probabilistic pixel-level segmentation algorithms. We performed an extensive experimentation using 6 challenge categories from the changedetection.net dataset demonstrating that in general simple majority vote proves to be more effective than more complex fusion schemes.

Children’s literature: sexual identity, gender and childhood

On the twenty-third of May 2015, Ireland became the first country to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote. This event reversed a large part, if not all, of Ireland’s reputation for a Catholic-led conservatism concerning sexual and gender identities. I argue in this article that we can see a parallel-in-miniature to this momentous shift in something of a reversal of children’s literature’s views in this respect too, and I will concentrate on exploring what is at stake in the ways that childhood, sexual and gender identities are constructed in some recent children’s literature criticism in the light of these shifts. My interest is to consider: what is the ever-burgeoning interest in the gay, queer, cross-dressing, transsexual or transgender child precisely about? I ask this question on the grounds of not assuming that this interest in these identities arises necessarily simply out of a self-evident, progressive, liberatory impulse, and, alongside this, I also do not assume that ‘identities’ are essential, self-organised traits awaiting revelation and liberation.

Modelling personal thermal sensations using C-Support Vector Classification (C-SVC) algorithm

The personalised conditioning system (PCS) is widely studied. Potentially, it is able to reduce energy consumption while securing occupants’ thermal comfort requirements. It has been suggested that automatic optimised operation schemes for PCS should be introduced to avoid energy wastage and discomfort caused by inappropriate operation. In certain automatic operation schemes, personalised thermal sensation models are applied as key components to help in setting targets for PCS operation. In this research, a novel personal thermal sensation modelling method based on the C-Support Vector Classification (C-SVC) algorithm has been developed for PCS control. The personal thermal sensation modelling has been regarded as a classification problem. During the modelling process, the method ‘learns’ an occupant’s thermal preferences from his/her feedback, environmental parameters and personal physiological and behavioural factors. The modelling method has been verified by comparing the actual thermal sensation vote (TSV) with the modelled one based on 20 individual cases. Furthermore, the accuracy of each individual thermal sensation model has been compared with the outcomes of the PMV model. The results indicate that the modelling method presented in this paper is an effective tool to model personal thermal sensations and could be integrated within the PCS for optimised system operation and control.

A study of adaptive thermal comfort in a well-controlled climate chamber

This paper aims to critically examine the application of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) in an air-conditioned environment in the hot-humid climate region. Experimental studies have been conducted in a climate chamber in Chongqing, China, from 2008 to 2010. A total of 440 thermal responses from participants were obtained. Data analysis reveals that the PMV overestimates occupants' mean thermal sensation in the warm environment (PMV > 0) with a mean bias of 0.296 in accordance with the ASHRAE thermal sensation scales. The Bland–Altman method has been applied to assess the agreement of the PMV and Actual Mean Vote (AMV) and reveals a lack of agreement between them. It is identified that habituation due to the past thermal experience of a long-term living in a specific region could stimulate psychological adaptation. The psychological adaptation can neutralize occupants’ actual thermal sensation by moderating the thermal sensibility of the skin. A thermal sensation empirical model and a PMV-revised index are introduced for air-conditioned indoor environments in hot-humid regions. As a result of habituation, the upper limit effective thermal comfort temperature SET* can be increased by 1.6 °C in a warm season based on the existing international standard. As a result, a great potential for energy saving from the air-conditioning system in summer could be achieved.

Voting rights of refugees

The book develops a novel legal argument about the voting rights of recognised 1951 Geneva Convention Refugees. The main normative contention is that such refugees should have the right to vote in the political community where they reside, assuming that the political community is a democracy and that its citizens have the right to vote. The basis of this contention is that the right to political participation in some political community is a basic right from the point of view of dignity and the protection of one’s interests. Due to their unique political predicament, 1951 Geneva Convention Refugees are a special category of non-citizen residents. They are unable to participate in elections of their state of origin, do not enjoy its diplomatic protection and consular assistance abroad, and – most fundamentally – are unable or unwilling, owing to a well-founded fear of persecution, to return to it; thus, they are in limbo for a potentially protracted period. Refugees, too, deserve to have a place in the world in the Arendtian sense, where their opinions are significant and their actions are effective. Their state of asylum is, for the time being, the only community in which there is any realistic prospect of political participation on their part.