Brexit: a new beginning for the EU or the beginning of the end? EPC Commentary, 24 June 2016

Despite all the evidence presented by a range of respected figures and institutions, and the paucity of the arguments on the Brexit side, which failed to set out the alternative to EU membership, the emotional appeal for ‘independence’ has won. This is a bad day for Europe. The Bremain campaign has not connected with enough voters, with the perceived need to limit migration, the wish to make decisions independent of the EU and a vote against ‘the establishment’ all seemingly playing a role.

Estrangement Day: The implications of Brexit for the EU. CEPS Commentary, 27 June 2016

In a post-imperial burst to define the boundaries of its sovereignty, Britannia is ruling the waves again, albeit in the form of air time devoted to the fallout from its referendum vote rather than in a show of force from its flotilla. It was with disbelief and sorrow that the UK’s partners in Europe and the rest of the world woke up to the news of the British Leave vote in the referendum on its EU membership. The prospect of a Brexit has sent shock waves throughout the international financial and political system and is set to occupy media debate for months to come.

Procedural steps towards Brexit. CEPS Commentary, 13 July 2016

Introduction. With the dust barely settled on the Brexit referendum, a messy legal picture has emerged. Among the many challenges are what, when and how exactly the UK’s withdrawal from the EU should be negotiated. In truth, the way the divorce procedure has been regulated under Article 50 TEU leaves much to be desired. Gaps left by the EU legislator will have to be filled rather swiftly by political elites and lawyers. To the EU and its member states, only the rudimentary aspects of withdrawal are clear. In the UK, however, even the staunchest proponents of Vote Leave seem to have been caught off-guard, with no actionable plan for how to handle Brexit – only visions of alternatives to EU membership that are unlikely to be acceptable to the EU27. The fact that alternatives to membership had not been considered seriously prior to the referendum is perplexing, and underlines the impression that the entire exercise was a stroke of irresponsible political chutzpah.

Brexit will deepen the fault lines within the EU over mobility. CEPS Commentary, 12 July 2016

Much has been made of the divide that opened up in 2015 between eastern and western member states as a result of acrimonious discussions on how to handle the refugee crisis and distribute asylum applicants across the EU. Against the prevailing political sentiment in certain member state capitals, Germany and France pushed through a plan devised by the European Commission to relocate 120,000 refugees, by a qualified majority vote in the Council. Rather than creating an east/west divide, however, the vote split the group of (relatively) new Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) of the EU into two factions: Romania, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary voted against the plan, whereas several other CEECs, namely Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic states, joined the controversial motion on the side of the other (northern, southern and western) member states. Finland abstained. Few member states have shifted their positions in the meantime. If anything, in fact, they have coalesced among the Visegrad 4, following a change of government in Poland; and they have hardened, as a result of new proposals by the Commission to fine member states that refuse to accept refugees. With Hungary’s referendum on the Commission’s relocation scheme scheduled for October 2nd, tensions are set to intensify even further.

Demographics and Brexit: A deeper problem for the EU? CEPS Commentary, 8 July 2016

There has been much debate about the demographic factors that contributed to the outcome of the UK’s referendum on its membership of the EU. Two aspects command special attention. First, there are marked differences between young and old generations in the preferences shown for remaining in the EU. While the former predominantly voted to remain, a great majority of the latter voted to leave. On the other hand, voter turnout revealed the opposite trend: about 83% of UK citizens aged 65 and older voted, whereas only 36% of those aged 18-24 cast their vote (Figure 1).

Scotland and the European Union. EPC Policy Brief, 14 July 2016

Britain’s referendum on EU membership revealed a country divided; while the United Kingdom voted to leave by 52%, Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the EU, putting the question of Scottish independence back on the table. The Scottish government says that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU against the will of its people, and that a second referendum on independence is “highly likely”. Although the Scottish people voted against independence in a referendum in 2014, opinion polls currently suggest that a majority in Scotland wants another referendum, and would vote for independence. In this Policy Brief, Graham Avery looks at how the Scottish question relates to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU; what factors have changed since the Scottish people voted against independence in 2014 and what Scotland‘s chances are of remaining in the EU.

A Global Strategy for a soul-searching European Union. EPC Discussion Paper, 13 July 2016

On 28 June 2016, just a few days after the historic Brexit vote, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini presented the paper on the new European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) at the European Council, outlining the strategic coordinates for the EU’s foreign and security policy. In this Discussion Paper, Giovanni Grevi takes a closer look at the EUGS and assesses its main rationale, features, added value and prospects against the backdrop of an ever more complex world. Not only is the EU dealing with increasingly contested and polarised politics at home, but the global theatre itself has become hugely disorienting, more integrated and yet more fragmented at the same time. The paper recalibrates the overall foreign policy posture of the EU and sketches out a more modest and concrete approach compared to earlier aspirations, and a more joined-up one compared to current practice. By doing so, the strategy seeks to square the circle between the need for Europe to be cohesive and purposeful in a harder strategic environment and the fact that domestic politics within the Union constrain its external action and drain its attractiveness. The EUGS calls on the EU and member states to fully take on their responsibility to underpin unity, prosperity and security at home by taking more effective and joined-up action abroad. The question is, of course, whether this call will be heeded.

Enseignement et recherche

Le vote du 9 février sur l'immigration a eu des répercussions sur les programmes de formation et de recherche académique, Eramsus+ et Horizon 2020. - L'initiative « Protection contre la sexualisation à l'école maternelle et primaire » a récolté le nombre de signatures requises. - La question de l'équivalence des diplômes de la formation professionnelle supérieure a fait débat. - La loi sur la formation continue a abouti. - Le contre-projet indirect à l'initative sur les bourses d'étude propose une réforme de la loi sur les aides à la formation. - La participation de la Suisse à la « Source européenne de spallation ESS » à passer le cap du premier Conseil.

The 2015 National Elections in Switzerland: Renewed Polarization and Shift to the Right

The 2015 election to the Swiss Parliament marks a return to an already observed trend that was only interrupted in 2011: a shift to the right and an increase in polarization. The vote share of the nationalist-conservative Swiss People's Party (SVP) has now reached a historical height of 29.4% (+2.8). This note discusses why cantons matter in the Swiss national elections, and to what degree elections have become nationalized. Institutionally, the 26 cantons serve as electoral districts. This leads to a highly disproportional electoral system and has magnified the minor vote shifts to a slightly more pronounced shift in seats, with the right now holding a tiny majority of 101 of 200 seats in the first chamber. The two winners, the SVP and the Liberals, also had most campaign funds at their disposal. They were able to guide an extensive nationwide campaign in which they advocated their core issues instead of candidates. Other parties only advertised at the cantonal level.

Procéduralisme épistémique et légitimité démocratique : une défense de l'égalité politique

Ce mémoire explore la relation qui lie démocratie et légitimité politique, dans une perspective épistémique. La démocratie, dans son acception la plus générale, confère à chacun la possibilité de faire valoir les intérêts qu'il estime être les siens et ceux de sa communauté, en particulier à l’occasion d’un scrutin. Cette procédure décisionnelle qu’est le vote consacre ainsi en quelque sorte la liberté et l’égalité dont profitent chacun des citoyens, et confère une certaine légitimité au processus décisionnel. Cela dit, si le vote n’est pas encadré par des considérations épistémiques, rien ne garantit que le résultat politique qui en découlera sera souhaitable tant pour les individus que pour la collectivité: il est tout à fait permis d’imaginer que des politiques discriminatoires, économiquement néfastes ou simplement inefficaces voient ainsi le jour, et prennent effet au détriment de tous. En réponse à ce problème, différentes théories démocratiques ont vu le jour et se sont succédé, afin de tenter de lier davantage le processus démocratique à l’atteinte d’objectifs politiques bénéfiques pour la collectivité. Au nombre d’entre elles, la démocratie délibérative a proposé de substituer la seule confrontation d’intérêts de la démocratie agrégative par une recherche collective du bien commun, canalisée autour de procédures délibératives appelées à légitimer sur des bases plus solides l’exercice démocratique. À sa suite, la démocratie épistémique s’est inspirée des instances délibératives en mettant davantage l’accent sur la qualité des résultats obtenus que sur les procédures elles-mêmes. Au final, un même dilemme hante chaque fois les différentes théories : est-il préférable de construire les instances décisionnelles en se concentrant prioritairement sur les critères procéduraux eux-mêmes, au risque de voir de mauvaises décisions filtrer malgré tout au travers du processus sans pouvoir rien y faire, ou devons-nous avoir d’entrée de jeu une conception plus substantielle de ce qui constitue une bonne décision, au risque cette fois de sacrifier la liberté de choix qui est supposé caractériser un régime démocratique? La thèse que nous défendrons dans ce mémoire est que le concept d’égalité politique peut servir à dénouer ce dilemme, en prenant aussi bien la forme d’un critère procédural que celle d’un objectif politique préétabli. L’égalité politique devient en ce sens une source normative forte de légitimité politique. En nous appuyant sur le procéduralisme épistémique de David Estlund, nous espérons avoir démontré au terme de ce mémoire que l’atteinte d’une égalité politique substantielle par le moyen de procédures égalitaires n’est pas une tautologie hermétique, mais plutôt un mécanisme réflexif améliorant tantôt la robustesse des procédures décisionnelles, tantôt l’atteinte d’une égalité tangible dans les rapports entre citoyens.

Design and synthesis of constrained azacyclic pyrrolidine analogues of FTY720 as anticancer agents & metal coordination-controlled and bifunctional catalysis toward tertiary β-Ketols

Cette thèse se compose en deux parties: Première Partie: La conception et la synthèse d’analogues pyrrolidiniques, utilisés comme agents anticancéreux, dérivés du FTY720. FTY720 est actuellement commercialisé comme médicament (GilenyaTM) pour le traitement de la sclérose en plaques rémittente-récurrente. Il agit comme immunosuppresseur en raison de son effet sur les récepteurs de la sphingosine-1-phosphate. A fortes doses, FTY720 présente un effet antinéoplasique. Cependant, à de telles doses, un des effets secondaires observé est la bradycardie dû à l’activation des récepteurs S1P1 et S1P3. Ceci limite son potentiel d’utilisation lors de chimiothérapie. Nos précédentes études ont montré que des analogues pyrrolidiniques dérivés du FTY720 présentaient une activité anticancéreuse mais aucune sur les récepteurs S1P1 et S1P3. Nous avons soumis l’idée qu’une étude relation structure-activité (SARs) pourrait nous conduire à la découverte de nouveaux agents anti tumoraux. Ainsi, deux séries de composés pyrrolidiniques (O-arylmethyl substitué et C-arylmethyl substitué) ont pu être envisagés et synthétisés (Chapitre 1). Ces analogues ont montré d’excellentes activités cytotoxiques contre diverses cellules cancéreuses humaines (prostate, colon, sein, pancréas et leucémie), plus particulièrement les analogues actifs qui ne peuvent pas être phosphorylés par SphK, présentent un plus grand potentiel pour le traitement du cancer sans effet secondaire comme la bradycardie. Les études mécanistiques suggèrent que ces analogues de déclencheurs de régulation négative sur les transporteurs de nutriments induisent une crise bioénergétique en affamant les cellules cancéreuses. Afin d’approfondir nos connaissances sur les récepteurs cibles, nous avons conçu et synthétisé des sondes diazirine basées sur le marquage d’affinité aux photons (méthode PAL: Photo-Affinity Labeling) (Chapitre 2). En s’appuyant sur la méthode PAL, il est possible de récolter des informations sur les récepteurs cibles à travers l’analyse LC/MS/MS de la protéine. Ces tests sont en cours et les résultats sont prometteurs. Deuxième partie: Coordination métallique et catalyse di fonctionnelle de dérivés β-hydroxy cétones tertiaires. Les réactions de Barbier et de Grignard sont des méthodes classiques pour former des liaisons carbone-carbone, et généralement utilisées pour la préparation d’alcools secondaires et tertiaires. En vue d’améliorer la réaction de Grignard avec le 1-iodobutane dans les conditions « one-pot » de Barbier, nous avons obtenu comme produit majoritaire la β-hydroxy cétone provenant de l’auto aldolisation de la 5-hexen-2-one, plutôt que le produit attendu d’addition de l’alcool (Chapitre 3). La formation inattendue de la β-hydroxy cétone a également été observée en utilisant d’autres dérivés méthyl cétone. Étonnement dans la réaction intramoléculaire d’une tricétone, connue pour former la cétone Hajos-Parrish, le produit majoritaire est rarement la β-hydroxy cétone présentant la fonction alcool en position axiale. Intrigué par ces résultats et après l’étude systématique des conditions de réaction, nous avons développé deux nouvelles méthodes à travers la synthèse sélective et catalytique de β-hydroxy cétones spécifiques par cyclisation intramoléculaire avec des rendements élevés (Chapitre 4). La réaction peut être catalysée soit par une base adaptée et du bromure de lithium comme additif en passant par un état de transition coordonné au lithium, ou bien soit à l’aide d’un catalyseur TBD di fonctionnel, via un état de transition médiée par une coordination bidenté au TBD. Les mécanismes proposés ont été corroborés par calcul DFT. Ces réactions catalytiques ont également été appliquées à d’autres substrats comme les tricétones et les dicétones. Bien que les efforts préliminaires afin d’obtenir une enantioselectivité se sont révélés sans succès, la synthèse et la recherche de nouveaux catalyseurs chiraux sont en cours.

Voters and Candidates of the Future

Within the literature there is a growing concern about lower voter turnout rates among young age cohorts. In this article we investigate the reported willingness to vote among 72,466 14-year old adolescents from 22 European countries, taking part in the International Citizen and Civic Education Survey (ICCS, 2009). Results indicate that the willingness to vote remains quite high among this age group, but with a clear gender division. While girls are more likely to state that they will vote, boys are more likely to see themselves as a future election candidate. An open classroom climate at school contributes to the willingness to vote in future elections. The elements that are known to have an effect on the turnout level of adults, however, do not have a significant impact on the intention to vote among adolescents. This would suggest that the observed low turnout rate among young age groups cannot just be attributed to an alleged lack of political motivation among adolescents.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

Partisan Dealignment in Germany: A rejoinder to Russell Dalton

The work of Russell Dalton has undoubtedly played a seminal role in the study of the relation between political sophistication and partisan dealignment. We furthermore acknowledge the presence of a consensus on the occurrence of lower levels of partisanship in Germany. Using panel data as well as pooled cross-sectional observations, however, it is clear that generational replacement is not the sole driving force of partisan dealignment, but that period effects should also be taken into account. While on an aggregate level rising levels of political sophistication have occurred simultaneously with decreasing partisanship, individual level analysis suggests clearly that the least sophisticated are most likely to feel alienated from the party system. We close with some very specific suggestion on how to address the democratic consequences of declining levels of partisanship.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.