Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Prediction of exposed domains of envelope glycoprotein in Indian HIV-1 isolates and experimental confirmation of their immunogenicity in humans

We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

There is no difference in hepatic fibrosis rates of patients infected with hepatitis C virus and those co-infected with HIV

Some studies have suggested that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection modifies the natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, accelerating the progression of fibrosis and the development of cirrhosis. Our objective was to evaluate the fibrosis progression rate (FPR) in HCV/HIV-co-infected patients, and to identify factors that may influence it. HCV-mono-infected and HCV/HIV-co-infected patients with a known date of HCV infection (transfusion or injection drug use) and a liver biopsy were included. The FPR was defined as the ratio between the fibrosis stage (Metavir score) and the estimated length of infection in years and the result was reported as fibrosis units per year. The factors studied were gender, age at infection, consumption of alcohol, aminotransferase levels, histological activity grade, HCV genotype and viral load, CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and the use of antiretroviral therapy. Sixty-five HCV-infected (group 1) and 53 HCV/HIV-co-infected (group 2) patients were evaluated over a period of 19 months. The mean FPR of groups 1 and 2 was 0.086 ± 0.074 and 0.109 ± 0.098 fibrosis units per year, respectively (P = 0.276). There was a correlation between length of HCV infection and stage of fibrosis in both groups. The age at infection, the aspartate aminotransferase level (r = 0.36) and the inflammatory activity grade were correlated with the FPR (P < 0.001). No difference in FPR was found between HCV-mono-infected and HCV/HIV-co-infected patients.

Atomic Force Microscopy Investigation of NI Particles Deposited on Porous Silicon

In this thesis properties and influence of modification techniques of porous silicon were studied by Atomic Force Microscope (AFM). This device permits to visualize the surface topography and to study properties of the samples on atomic scale, which was necessary for recent investigation. Samples of porous silicon were obtained by electrochemical etching. Nickel particles were deposited by two methods: electrochemical deposition and extracting from NiCl2 ethanol solution. Sample growth was conducted in Saint-Petersburg State Electrotechnical University, LETI. Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) and Magnetic force microscopy (MFM) were utilized for detailed information about surface properties of the samples. Measurements showed the difference in morphology correlating with initial growth conditions. Submicron size particles were clearly visible on surfaces of the treated samples. Although their nature was not clarified due to limitations of AFM technique. It is expected that surfaces were covered by nanometer scale Ni particles, which can be verified by implication of RAMAN device.

Photocatalysis Studies under Visible Light Irradiation with TiO2 Obtained by Pulsed Electric Field Assisted Sol-Gel Method

The objective of this thesis was to study the effect of pulsed electric field on the preparation of TiO2 nanoparticles via sol-gel method under the visible light irradiation. The literature part introduces properties of different TiO2 crystal forms and principle of photocatalysis. It was expected that pulsed electric field would have an influence on degradation for oxalic acid and formic acid. TiO2 samples were prepared by using three frequencies (50Hz, 294Hz, and 963Hz) and two treatment times (12 minutes and 24 minutes) of pulsed electric field. The photocatalytic activities of TiO2 samples produced with sol-gel method were also compared with the TiO2 particles made by previous study and with the commercial TiO2 powder Aeroxide® (Evonic Degussa GmbH) at the same condition. Results show that pulsed electric field does have an effect on degradation for oxalic acid and formic acid. Generally, higher photocatalytic activities for oxalic acid and formic acid were obtained with lower frequency and longer treatment time of pulsed electric field.

5-Bromo-2’-deoxyuridine induces visible morphological alteration in the DNA puffs of the anterior salivary gland region of Bradysia hygida (Diptera, Sciaridae)

5-Bromo-2’-deoxyuridine (BrdUrd) has long been known to interfere with cell differentiation. We found that treatment ofBradysia hygida larvae with BrdUrd during DNA puff anlage formation in the polytene chromosomes of the salivary gland S1 region noticeably affects anlage morphology. However, it does not affect subsequent metamorphosis to the adult stage. The chromatin of the chromosomal sites that would normally form DNA puffs remains very compact and DNA puff expansion does not occur with administration of 4 to 8 mM BrdUrd. Injection of BrdUrd at different ages provoked a gradient of compaction of the DNA puff chromatin, leading to the formation of very small to almost normal puffs. By immunodetection, we show that the analogue is preferentially incorporated into the DNA puff anlages. When BrdUrd is injected in a mixture with thymidine, it is not incorporated into the DNA, and normal DNA puffs form. Therefore, incorporation of this analogue into the amplified DNA seems to be the cause of this extreme compaction. Autoradiographic experiments and silver grains counting showed that this treatment decreases the efficiency of RNA synthesis at DNA puff anlages.

High sensitivity C-reactive protein distribution in the elderly: the Bambuí Cohort Study, Brazil

The measurement of the serum concentration of the acute-phase reactant C-reactive protein (CRP) provides a useful marker in clinical practice. However, the distribution of CRP is not available for all age and population groups. This study assessed the distribution of high sensitivity-CRP (hs-CRP) by gender and age in 1470 elderly individuals from a Brazilian community that participates in the Bambuí Cohort Study. Blood samples were collected after 12 h of fasting and serum samples were stored at -70°C. Measurements were made with a commercial hs-CRP immunonephelometric instrument. More than 50% of the results were above 3.0 mg/L for both genders. Mean hs-CRP was higher in women (3.62 ± 2.58 mg/L) than in men (3.03 ± 2.50 mg/L). This difference was observed for all ages, except for the over-80 age group. This is the first population-based study to describe hs-CRP values in Latin American elderly subjects. Our results indicate that significant gender differences exist in the distribution of hs-CRP, and suggest that gender-specific cut-off points for hs-CRP would be necessary for the prediction of cardiovascular risks.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Use of the Wasserman equation in optimization of the duration of the power ramp in a cardiopulmonary exercise test: a study of Brazilian men

This study aimed to analyze the agreement between measurements of unloaded oxygen uptake and peak oxygen uptake based on equations proposed by Wasserman and on real measurements directly obtained with the ergospirometry system. We performed an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), which was applied to two groups of sedentary male subjects: one apparently healthy group (HG, n=12) and the other had stable coronary artery disease (n=16). The mean age in the HG was 47±4 years and that in the coronary artery disease group (CG) was 57±8 years. Both groups performed CPET on a cycle ergometer with a ramp-type protocol at an intensity that was calculated according to the Wasserman equation. In the HG, there was no significant difference between measurements predicted by the formula and real measurements obtained in CPET in the unloaded condition. However, at peak effort, a significant difference was observed between oxygen uptake (V˙O2)peak(predicted)and V˙O2peak(real)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). In the CG, there was a significant difference of 116.26 mL/min between the predicted values by the formula and the real values obtained in the unloaded condition. A significant difference in peak effort was found, where V˙O2peak(real)was 40% lower than V˙O2peak(predicted)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). There was no agreement between the real and predicted measurements as analyzed by Lin’s coefficient or the Bland and Altman model. The Wasserman formula does not appear to be appropriate for prediction of functional capacity of volunteers. Therefore, this formula cannot precisely predict the increase in power in incremental CPET on a cycle ergometer.

HIGH PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM: PREDICTION OF ESSENTIAL OIL SOLUBILITY

This work describes a method to predict the solubility of essential oils in supercritical carbon dioxide. The method is based on the formulation proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. The Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong cubic equations of state were used with the van der Waals mixing rules with two interaction parameters. Method validation was accomplished calculating orange essential oil solubility in pressurized carbon dioxide. The solubility of orange essential oil in carbon dioxide calculated at 308.15 K for pressures of 50 to 70 bar varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. For same the range of conditions, experimental solubility varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. Predicted values were not very sensitive to initial oil composition.

Trilling race : the political economy of racialised visual-aural encounters

This thesis investigates the matter of race in the context of Finnish language acquisition among adult migrants in Finland. Here matter denotes both the materiality of race and how race comes to matter. Drawing primarily on an auto/ethno/graphic account of learning the Finnish language as a participant in the Finnish for foreigners classes, this thesis problematises the ontology and epistemology of race, i.e., what race is, how it is known, and what an engagement with race entails. Taking cues from the bodily practices of learning the Finnish trill or the rolling r, this study proposes a notion of “trilling race” and argues for an onto-epistemological dis/continuity that marks race’s arrival. The notion of dis/continuity reworks the distinction between continuity and discontinuity, and asks about the how of the arrival of any identity, the where, and the when. In so doing, an analysis of “trilling race” engages with one of the major problematics that has exercised much critical attention, namely: how to read race differently. That is, to rethink the conundrum of the need to counter “representational weight” (Puar 2007, 191) of race on the one hand, and to account for the racialised lived realities on the other. The link between a study of the phenomenon of host country language acquisition and an examination of the question of race is not as obvious as it might seem. For example, what does the argument that the process of language learning is racialised actually imply? Does it mean that race, as a process of racialisation or an ongoing configuration of sets of power relations, exerts force from an outside on the otherwise neutral process of learning the host country language? Or does it mean that race, as an identity category, presents as among the analytical perspectives, along with gender and class for instance, of the phenomenon of host country language acquisition? With these questions in mind, and to foreground the examination of the question of race in the context of Finnish language acquisition among adult migrants, this thesis opens with a discussion of the art installation Finnexia by Lisa Erdman. Finnexia is a fictitious drug said to facilitate Finnish language learning through accelerating the cognitive learning process and reducing the anxiety of speaking the Finnish language. Not only does the Finnexia installation make visible the ways in which the lack of skill in Finnish is fgured as the threshold – a border that separates the inside from the outside – to integration, but also, and importantly, it raises questions about the nature of difference, and the process of differentiation that separates the individual from the social, fact from fiction, nature from culture. These puzzles animate much of the analysis in this dissertation. These concerns continue to be addressed in the rest of part one. Whereas chapter two offers a reconsideration of the ambiguities of ethnisme/ethnicity and race, chapter three dilates on the methodological implications of a conception of the dis/continuity of race. Part two focuses on the matter of race and examines the political economy of visual-aural encounters, whereas part three shifts the focus and rethinks the possibilities and limitations of transforming racialised and normative constraints. Taking up these particular problematics, this thesis as a whole argues that race trills itself: its identity/difference is simultaneously made possible and impossible.

Application of mathematical models for the prediction of adsorption isotherms in solid mixture for mango powder refreshment

Solid mixtures for refreshment are already totally integrated to the Brazilian consumers' daily routine, because of their quick preparation method, yield and reasonable price - quite lower if compared to 'ready-to-drink' products or products for prompt consumption, what makes them economically more accessible to low-income populations. Within such a context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the physicochemical and mineral composition, as well as the hygroscopic behavior of four different brands of solid mixture for mango refreshment. The BET, GAB, Oswim and Henderson mathematical models were built through the adjustment of experimental data to the isotherms of adsorption. Results from the physiochemical evaluation showed that the solid mixtures for refreshments are considerable sources of ascorbic acid and reductor sugar; and regarding mineral compounds, they are significant sources of calcium, sodium and potassium. It was also verified that the solid mixtures for refreshments of the four studied brands are considered highly hygroscopic.

An artificial neural network model for prediction of quality characteristics of apples during convective dehydration

In this study, the effects of hot-air drying conditions on color, water holding capacity, and total phenolic content of dried apple were investigated using artificial neural network as an intelligent modeling system. After that, a genetic algorithm was used to optimize the drying conditions. Apples were dried at different temperatures (40, 60, and 80 °C) and at three air flow-rates (0.5, 1, and 1.5 m/s). Applying the leave-one-out cross validation methodology, simulated and experimental data were in good agreement presenting an error < 2.4 %. Quality index optimal values were found at 62.9 °C and 1.0 m/s using genetic algorithm.

Artificial neural networks (ANN): prediction of sensory measurements from instrumental data

The objective of this study was to predict by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), multilayer perceptrons, the texture attributes of light cheesecurds perceived by trained judges based on instrumental texture measurements. Inputs to the network were the instrumental texture measurements of light cheesecurd (imitative and fundamental parameters). Output variables were the sensory attributes consistency and spreadability. Nine light cheesecurd formulations composed of different combinations of fat and water were evaluated. The measurements obtained by the instrumental and sensory analyses of these formulations constituted the data set used for training and validation of the network. Network training was performed using a back-propagation algorithm. The network architecture selected was composed of 8-3-9-2 neurons in its layers, which quickly and accurately predicted the sensory texture attributes studied, showing a high correlation between the predicted and experimental values for the validation data set and excellent generalization ability, with a validation RMSE of 0.0506.