Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Epidemiologic characteristics of cases for influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in China

China's National Health and Family Planning Commission announced 3 deaths caused by avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus in March, which was the first time that the H7N9 strain has been found in humans [1]. This is of major public health significance and raises urgent questions and global concerns [2, 3]. To explore epidemic characteristics of human infections with H7N9 virus, data on individual cases from 19 February 2013 (onset date of first case) to 14 April 2013 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which included information about sex; age; occupation; residential address; and day of symptom onset, diagnosis, and outcome for each case. The definition of an unconfirmed probable H7N9 case is a patient with epidemiologic evidence of contact …

Proposing and developing a definition and conceptual framework for health care resilience to cope with disasters [Resiliencia: Propuesta y desarrollo de la definicion y del marco conceptual en relacion a los desastres en el ambito sanitario]

La creación del término resiliencia en salud es un paso importante hacia la construcción de comunidades más resilientes para afrontar mejor los desastres futuros. Hasta la fecha, sin embargo, parece que hay poca literatura sobre cómo el concepto de resiliencia en salud debe ser definido. Este artículo tiene como objetivo construir un enfoque de gestión de desastres de salud integral guiado por el concepto de resiliencia. Se realizaron busquedas en bases de datos electrónicas de salud para recuperar publicaciones críticas que pueden haber contribuido a los fines y objetivos de la investigación. Un total de 61 publicaciones se incluyeron en el análisis final de este documento, que se centraron en aquéllas que proporcionan una descripción completa de las teorías y definiciones de resiliencia ante los desastres y las que proponen una definición y un marco conceptual para la capacidad de resiliencia en salud. La resiliencia es una capacidad inherente de adaptación para hacer frente a la incertidumbre del futuro. Esto implica el uso de múltiples estrategias, un enfoque de riesgos máximos y tratar de lograr un resultado positivo a través de la vinculación y cooperación entre los distintos elementos de la comunidad. Resiliencia en salud puede definirse como la capacidad de las organizaciones de salud para resistir, absorber, y responder al impacto de los desastres, mientras mantiene las funciones esenciales y se recupera a su estado original o se adapta a un nuevo estado. Puede evaluarse por criterios como la robustez, la redundancia, el ingenio y la rapidez e incluye las dimensiones clave de la vulnerabilidad y la seguridad, los recursos y la preparación para casos de desastre, la continuidad de los servicios esenciales de salud, la recuperación y la adaptación. Este nuevo concepto define las capacidades en gestión de desastres de las organizaciones sanitarias, las tareas de gestión, actividades y resultados de desastres juntos en una visión de conjunto integral, y utiliza un enfoque integrado y con un objetivo alcanzable. Se necesita urgentemente investigación futura de su medición

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world’s population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations with two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination.

Limited dengue virus replication in field-collected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia

Introduction Dengue is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in the world. The causative agent, dengue virus (DENV), is primarily transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that has proved difficult to control using conventional methods. The discovery that A. aegypti transinfected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia showed limited DENV replication led to trial field releases of these mosquitoes in Cairns, Australia as a biocontrol strategy for the virus. Methodology/Principal Findings Field collected wMel mosquitoes that were challenged with three DENV serotypes displayed limited rates of body infection, viral replication and dissemination to the head compared to uninfected controls. Rates of dengue infection, replication and dissemination in field wMel mosquitoes were similar to those observed in the original transinfected wMel line that had been maintained in the laboratory. We found that wMel was distributed in similar body tissues in field mosquitoes as in laboratory ones, but, at seven days following blood-feeding, wMel densities increased to a greater extent in field mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that virus-blocking is likely to persist in Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes after their release and establishment in wild populations, suggesting that Wolbachia biocontrol may be a successful strategy for reducing dengue transmission in the field.

Epidemiological and molecular features of dengue virus type-1 in New Caledonia, South Pacific, 2001–2013

Background The epidemiology of dengue in the South Pacific has been characterized by transmission of a single dominant serotype for 3–5 years, with subsequent replacement by another serotype. From 2001 to 2008 only DENV-1 was reported in the Pacific. In 2008, DENV-4 emerged and quickly displaced DENV-1 in the Pacific, except in New Caledonia (NC) where DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated in 2008–2009. During 2012–2013, another DENV-1 outbreak occurred in NC, the third DENV-1 outbreak in a decade. Given that dengue is a serotype-specific immunizing infection, the recurrent outbreaks of a single serotype within a 10-year period was unexpected. Findings This study aimed to inform this phenomenon by examining the phylogenetic characteristics of the DENV-1 viruses in NC and other Pacific islands between 2001 and 2013. As a result, we have demonstrated that NC experienced introductions of viruses from both the Pacific (genotype IV) and South-east Asia (genotype I). Moreover, whereas genotype IV and I were co-circulating at the beginning of 2012, we observed that from the second half of 2012, i.e. during the major DENV-1 outbreak, all analyzed viruses were genotype I suggesting that a genotype switch occurred. Conclusions Repeated outbreaks of the same dengue serotype, as observed in NC, is uncommon in the Pacific islands. Why the earlier DENV-1 outbreaks did not induce sufficient herd immunity is unclear, and likely multifactorial, but the robust vector control program may have played a role by limiting transmission and thus maintaining a large susceptible pool in the population. Keywords: Dengue; Phylogeny; Genotype; Epidemics; New Caledonia

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Staurosporine augments EGF-mediated EMT in PMC42-LA cells through actin depolymerisation, focal contact size reduction and Snail1 induction : a model for cross-modulation

Background A feature of epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) relevant to tumour dissemination is the reorganization of actin cytoskeleton/focal contacts, influencing cellular ECM adherence and motility. This is coupled with the transcriptional repression of E-cadherin, often mediated by Snail1, Snail2 and Zeb1/δEF1. These genes, overexpressed in breast carcinomas, are known targets of growth factor-initiated pathways, however it is less clear how alterations in ECM attachment cross-modulate to regulate these pathways. EGF induces EMT in the breast cancer cell line PMC42-LA and the kinase inhibitor staurosporine (ST) induces EMT in embryonic neural epithelial cells, with F-actin de-bundling and disruption of cell-cell adhesion, via inhibition of aPKC. Methods PMC42-LA cells were treated for 72 h with 10 ng/ml EGF, 40 nM ST, or both, and assessed for expression of E-cadherin repressor genes (Snail1, Snail2, Zeb1/δEF1) and EMT-related genes by QRT-PCR, multiplex tandem PCR (MT-PCR) and immunofluorescence +/- cycloheximide. Actin and focal contacts (paxillin) were visualized by confocal microscopy. A public database of human breast cancers was assessed for expression of Snail1 and Snail2 in relation to outcome. Results When PMC42-LA were treated with EGF, Snail2 was the principal E-cadherin repressor induced. With ST or ST+EGF this shifted to Snail1, with more extreme EMT and Zeb1/δEF1 induction seen with ST+EGF. ST reduced stress fibres and focal contact size rapidly and independently of gene transcription. Gene expression analysis by MT-PCR indicated that ST repressed many genes which were induced by EGF (EGFR, CAV1, CTGF, CYR61, CD44, S100A4) and induced genes which alter the actin cytoskeleton (NLF1, NLF2, EPHB4). Examination of the public database of breast cancers revealed tumours exhibiting higher Snail1 expression have an increased risk of disease-recurrence. This was not seen for Snail2, and Zeb1/δEF1 showed a reverse correlation with lower expression values being predictive of increased risk. Conclusion ST in combination with EGF directed a greater EMT via actin depolymerisation and focal contact size reduction, resulting in a loosening of cell-ECM attachment along with Snail1-Zeb1/δEF1 induction. This appeared fundamentally different to the EGF-induced EMT, highlighting the multiple pathways which can regulate EMT. Our findings add support for a functional role for Snail1 in invasive breast cancer.

Induction of epithelial to mesenchymal transition in PMC42-LA human breast carcinoma cells by carcinoma-associated fibroblast secreted factors

Background Breast carcinoma is accompanied by changes in the acellular and cellular components of the microenvironment, the latter typified by a switch from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts. Methods: We utilised conditioned media cultures, Western blot analysis and immunocytochemistry to investigate the differential effects of normal mammary fibroblasts (NMFs) and mammary cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) on the phenotype and behaviour of PMC42-LA breast cancer cells. NMFs were obtained from a mammary gland at reduction mammoplasty, and CAFs from a mammary carcinoma after resection. Results We found greater expression of myofibroblastic markers in CAFs than in NMFs. Medium from both CAFs and NMFs induced novel expression of α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin-14 in PMC42-LA organoids. However, although conditioned media from NMFs resulted in distribution of vimentin-positive cells to the periphery of PMC42-LA organoids, this was not seen with CAF-conditioned medium. Upregulation of vimentin was accompanied by a mis-localization of E-cadherin, suggesting a loss of adhesive function. This was confirmed by visualizing the change in active β-catenin, localized to the cell junctions in control cells/ cells in NMF-conditioned medium, to inactive β-catenin, localized to nuclei and cytoplasm in cells in CAF-conditioned medium. Conclusion We found no significant difference between the influences of NMFs and CAFs on PMC42-LA cell proliferation, viability, or apoptosis; significantly, we demonstrated a role for CAFs, but not for NMFs, in increasing the migratory ability of PMC42-LA cells. By concentrating NMF-conditioned media, we demonstrated the presence of factor(s) that induce epithelial-mesenchymal transition in NMF-conditioned media that are present at higher levels in CAF-conditioned media. Our in vitro results are consistent with observations in vivo showing that alterations in stroma influence the phenotype and behaviour of surrounding cells and provide evidence for a role for CAFs in stimulating cancer progression via an epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These findings have implications for our understanding of the roles of signalling between epithelial and stromal cells in the development and progression of mammary carcinoma.

Geographic co-distribution of influenza virus subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in humans, China

Human infection with a novel low pathogenicity influenza A(H7N9) virus in eastern China has recently raised global public health concerns (1). The geographic sources of infection have yet to be fully clarified, and confirmed human cases from 1 province have not been linked to those from other provinces. While some studies have identified epidemiologic characteristics of subtype H7N9 cases and clinical differences between these cases and cases of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1), another avian influenza affecting parts of China (2–4), the spatial epidemiology of human infection with influenza subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in China has yet to be elucidated. To test the hypothesis of co-distribution of high-risk clusters of both types of infection, we used all available data on human cases in mainland China and investigated the geospatial epidemiologic features...

The making of control : an ethnomethodology of choosing management accounting systems [La fabrique du controle : une ethnomethodologie du choix des outils de gestion]

This paper sets out to contribute to the literature on the design and the implementation of management control systems. To this end, we question what is discussed when a management control system is to be chosen and on what decision-making eventually rests. This study rests upon an ethnomethodology of the Salvation Army’s French branch. Operating in the dual capacity of a researcher and a counsellor to management, between 2000 and 2007, we have unrestricted access to internal data revealing the backstage of management control: discussions and interactions surrounding the choosing of control devices. We contribute to understanding the arising of a need for control, the steps and process followed to decide upon a management control system, and controls in nonprofits. [Cet article vise à contribuer à la littérature sur la mise en place des systèmes de contrôle de gestion. À cette fin, nous questionnons ce qui est discuté lors du choix d’un système de contrôle et sur quoi repose in fine la décision. Cet article est fondé sur une approche ethnométhodologique de l’Armée du Salut en France permise par notre double qualité de chercheurs mais également de conseiller auprès de la direction de l’organisation entre 2000 et 2007. Un accès illimité à des données internes nous permet ainsi de mettre en lumière les aspects méconnus et invisibles du contrôle de gestion : les discussions et interactions entourant le choix d’outils. Nous contribuons à la compréhension de l’émergence du besoin de contrôle, des étapes et du processus de choix d’outils et enfin du contrôle de gestion dans une organisation à but non lucratif.]

From democracy in America to a la francaise accountability. Grasping the sociopolitical origins of accountability [De la démocratie en Amérique du Nord à l’accountability à la française]

Whilst native French speakers oftentimes collapse accountability to account giving, this paper outlines the shape of an accountability ala française. Reading Tocqueville’s (1835) work highlights that accountability as practiced in Anglo-Saxonc countries has been an offspring of American democracy. An accountability a la française would be characterised by conformance to a set or universal values, the submission of minorities to choices made by the majority, a means obligation as well as the rejection of transparency. [Alors que le francophone réduit généralement l’accountability à la reddition de comptes, cet article esquisse les contours d’une véritable accountability à la française. La lecture de Tocqueville (1835) révèle que l’accountability pratiquée dans les pays anglo-saxons trouve ses origines dans les fondements de la démocratie américaine. En France, l’accountability serait caractérisée par le respect d’un ensemble de valeurs universelles, l’adhésion des minorités aux choix majoritaires, l’absence de discriminations, une obligation de moyens et un rejet de la transparence.]

Myoepithelial molecular markers in human breast carcinoma PMC42-LA cells are induced by extracellular matrix and stromal cells

The microenvironment plays a key role in the cellular differentiation of the two main cell lineages of the human breast, luminal epithelial, and myoepithelial. It is not clear, however, how the components of the microenvironment control the development of these cell lineages. To investigate how lineage development is regulated by 3-D culture and microenvironment components, we used the PMC42-LA human breast carcinoma cell line, which possesses stem cell characteristics. When cultured on a two-dimensional glass substrate, PMC42-LA cells formed a monolayer and expressed predominantly luminal epithelial markers, including cytokeratins 8, 18, and 19; E-cadherin; and sialomucin. The key myoepithelial-specific proteins α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin 14 were not expressed. When cultured within Engelbreth-Holm- Swarm sarcoma-derived basement membrane matrix (EHS matrix), PMC42-LA cells formed organoids in which the expression of luminal markers was reduced and the expression of other myoepithelial-specific markers (cytokeratin 17 and P-cadherin) was promoted. The presence of primary human mammary gland fibroblasts within the EHS matrix induced expression of the key myoepithelial-specific markers, α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin 14. Immortalized human skin fibroblasts were less effective in inducing expression of these key myoepithelial-specific markers. Confocal dual-labeling showed that individual cells expressed luminal or myoepithelial proteins, but not both. Conditioned medium from the mammary fibroblasts was equally effective in inducing myoepithelial marker expression. The results indicate that the myoepithelial lineage is promoted by the extracellular matrix, in conjunction with products secreted by breast-specific fibroblasts. Our results demonstrate a key role for the breast microenvironment in the regulation of breast lineage development.