MECHANISMS AND EFFECTS OF MITOCHONDRIAL DNA INSTABILITY AND COPY NUMBER MANIPULATION

Defects in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) maintenance cause a range of human diseases, including autosomal dominant progressive external ophthalmoplegia (adPEO). This study aimed to clarify the molecular background of adPEO. We discovered that deoxynucleoside triphosphate (dNTP) metabolism plays a crucial in mtDNA maintenance and were thus prompted to search for therapeutic strategies based on the modulation of cellular dNTP pools or mtDNA copy number. Human mtDNA is a 16.6 kb circular molecule present in hundreds to thousands of copies per cell. mtDNA is compacted into nucleoprotein clusters called nucleoids. mtDNA maintenance diseases result from defects in nuclear encoded proteins that maintain the mtDNA. These syndromes typically afflict highly differentiated, post-mitotic tissues such as muscle and nerve, but virtually any organ can be affected. adPEO is a disease where mtDNA molecules with large-scale deletions accumulate in patients tissues, particularly in skeletal muscle. Mutations in five nuclear genes, encoding the proteins ANT1, Twinkle, POLG, POLG2 and OPA1, have previously been shown to cause adPEO. Here, we studied a large North American pedigree with adPEO, and identified a novel heterozygous mutation in the gene RRM2B, which encodes the p53R2 subunit of the enzyme ribonucleotide reductase (RNR). RNR is the rate-limiting enzyme in dNTP biosynthesis, and is required both for nuclear and mitochondrial DNA replication. The mutation results in the expression of a truncated form of p53R2, which is likely to compete with the wild-type allele. A change in enzyme function leads to defective mtDNA replication due to altered dNTP pools. Therefore, RRM2B is a novel adPEO disease gene. The importance of adequate dNTP pools and RNR function for mtDNA maintenance has been established in many organisms. In yeast, induction of RNR has previously been shown to increase mtDNA copy number, and to rescue the phenotype caused by mutations in the yeast mtDNA polymerase. To further study the role of RNR in mammalian mtDNA maintenance, we used mice that broadly overexpress the RNR subunits Rrm1, Rrm2 or p53R2. Active RNR is a heterotetramer consisting of two large subunits (Rrm1) and two small subunits (either Rrm2 or p53R2). We also created bitransgenic mice that overexpress Rrm1 together with either Rrm2 or p53R2. In contrast to the previous findings in yeast, bitransgenic RNR overexpression led to mtDNA depletion in mouse skeletal muscle, without mtDNA deletions or point mutations. The mtDNA depletion was associated with imbalanced dNTP pools. Furthermore, the mRNA expression levels of Rrm1 and p53R2 were found to correlate with mtDNA copy number in two independent mouse models, suggesting nuclear-mitochondrial cross talk with regard to mtDNA copy number. We conclude that tight regulation of RNR is needed to prevent harmful alterations in the dNTP pool balance, which can lead to disordered mtDNA maintenance. Increasing the copy number of wild-type mtDNA has been suggested as a strategy for treating PEO and other mitochondrial diseases. Only two proteins are known to cause a robust increase in mtDNA copy number when overexpressed in mice; the mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM), and the mitochondrial replicative helicase Twinkle. We studied the mechanisms by which Twinkle and TFAM elevate mtDNA levels, and showed that Twinkle specifically implements mtDNA synthesis. Furthermore, both Twinkle and TFAM were found to increase mtDNA content per nucleoid. Increased mtDNA content in mouse tissues correlated with an age-related accumulation of mtDNA deletions, depletion of mitochondrial transcripts, and progressive respiratory dysfunction. Simultaneous overexpression of Twinkle and TFAM led to a further increase in the mtDNA content of nucleoids, and aggravated the respiratory deficiency. These results suggested that high mtDNA levels have detrimental long-term effects in mice. These data have to be considered when developing and evaluating treatment strategies for elevating mtDNA copy number.

Very Low Birth Weight Infants as Young Adults : Focus on aspects of cognition, behavior and sleep

Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.

Cystatin C, a measure of renal function, as prognostic risk marker in acute heart failure : Studies on the cardiorenal syndrome

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with exceptionally high mortality. Still, characteristics and prognostic factors of contemporary AHF patients have been inadequately studied. Kidney function has emerged as a very powerful prognostic risk factor in cardiovascular disease. This is believed to be the consequence of an interaction between the heart and kidneys, also termed the cardiorenal syndrome, the mechanisms of which are not fully understood. Renal insufficiency is common in heart failure and of particular interest for predicting outcome in AHF. Cystatin C (CysC) is a marker of glomerular filtration rate with properties making it a prospective alternative to the currently used measure creatinine for assessment of renal function. The aim of this thesis is to characterize a representative cohort of patients hospitalized for AHF and to identify risk factors for poor outcome in AHF. In particular, the role of CysC as a marker of renal function is evaluated, including examination of the value of CysC as a predictor of mortality in AHF. The FINN-AKVA (Finnish Acute Heart Failure) study is a national prospective multicenter study conducted to investigate the clinical presentation, aetiology and treatment of, as well as concomitant diseases and outcome in, AHF. Patients hospitalized for AHF were enrolled in the FINN-AKVA study, and mortality was followed for 12 months. The mean age of patients with AHF is 75 years and they frequently have both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities. The mortality after hospitalization for AHF is high, rising to 27% by 12 months. The present study shows that renal dysfunction is very common in AHF. CysC detects impaired renal function in forty percent of patients. Renal function, measured by CysC, is one of the strongest predictors of mortality independently of other prognostic risk markers, such as age, gender, co-morbidities and systolic blood pressure on admission. Moreover, in patients with normal creatinine values, elevated CysC is associated with a marked increase in mortality. Acute kidney injury, defined as an increase in CysC within 48 hours of hospital admission, occurs in a significant proportion of patients and is associated with increased short- and mid-term mortality. The results suggest that CysC can be used for risk stratification in AHF. Markers of inflammation are elevated both in heart failure and in chronic kidney disease, and inflammation is one of the mechanisms thought to mediate heart-kidney interactions in the cardiorenal syndrome. Inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) correlate very differently to markers of cardiac stress and renal function. In particular, TNF-α showed a robust correlation to CysC, but was not associated with levels of NT-proBNP, a marker of hemodynamic cardiac stress. Compared to CysC, the inflammatory markers were not strongly related to mortality in AHF. In conclusion, patients with AHF are elderly with multiple co-morbidities, and renal dysfunction is very common. CysC demonstrates good diagnostic properties both in identifying impaired renal function and acute kidney injury in patients with AHF. CysC, as a measure of renal function, is also a powerful prognostic marker in AHF. CysC shows promise as a marker for assessment of kidney function and risk stratification in patients hospitalized for AHF.

Moralpanik eller förnuftslogik - i Jokela-fallets diskursiva efterdyningar

I denna pro gradu avhandling undersöker jag Jokela-fallets diskursiva efterdyningar utgående från ett moralpanikperspektiv. Syftet är att se huruvida reaktionerna på och förklaringarna till skolmassakern i Jokela kan anses präglas av moralpanik, samt vilka andra förklaringsmodeller som präglade den omfattande Jokela-debatten. Avhandling grundar sig på en kvalitativ diskursanalys av förklaringsmodellerna så som de presenterades i opinionstexter och insändare i Helsingin Sanomat hösten 2007. Jag analyserar hur den medierade Jokela-debatten utvecklades och formade perceptionerna om skolskjutningar, ungdomar och det finländska samhällstillståndet i stort. Jokela-fallet väckte starka reaktioner och rädsla. Man försökte förstå och förklara orsakerna till skottdramat. Flera olika förklaringsmodeller presenterades i medierna; en oro över ungdomens mentala hälsa och mobbning, webbens och populärkulturens farliga inflytande, det hårdnade samhällsklimatet och en försvagad välfärd, också den bristfälliga vapenlagstiftningen kritiserades. Den gemensamma nämnaren var att Jokela-fallet uppfattades som en indikator på hela samhällets tillstånd där en gemensam värdegrund och moral håller på att erodera. Mitt teoretiska perspektiv grundar sig främst på moralpanikteorier av Stanley Cohen och Chas Critcher som jag kopplar ihop med Ulrich Becks teori om risksamhället och Emile Durkheims anomiteori. Det här speglar jag mot bland annat Hille Koskelas forskning om rädslans kultur och trygghetssamhället, samt jämför med amerikansk forskning om skolskjutningar. Jokela-debatten formades främst av två dominerande diskurser: a) en rationaliseringsdiskurs som kännetecknas av att man försöker förklara Jokela-fallet genom förnuftsmässiga och logiska resonemang genom att peka på olika samhällsaspekter, b) en risk- och kontrolldiskurs som kännetecknas av moralpaniktendenser främst i form av oro över ungdomar, internet och försvagade samhällsnormer, samt krav på ökad social kontroll och reglering för att säkra trygghet och ordning i samhället. Jokela-fallet var inte ett klassiskt moralpanikfall, men fyllde många av kriterierna för moralpanik. Jokela-debatten uttryckte en rädslans kultur som genomsyrar dagens risksamhälle och som legitimerar ökad riskhantering och social kontroll, som försvar mot de hot och problem som samhället kollektivt upplever. Det ställdes krav på mera social kontroll och reglering på grund av upplevda hot mot samhällets normer och en försvagad moral, vilket är ett uttryck för moralpanik. Jokela-fallets diskursiva efterdyningar visar att tryggheten har blivit ett moraliskt imperativ. Trygghet har blivit något vi förutsätts eftersträva och som vi är färdiga att betala ett allt högre pris för, både mätt i pengar och i frihet.

Ravinnon kasvinsuojeluainejäämät

Kasvinsuojeluaineita käytetään elintarviketuotannossa kasvitautien ehkäisemiseen sekä kasvintuhoojien vaikutusten ajoittamiseen ja kasvun säätelyyn. Käytettyjen tehoaineiden riskinarviointi yksi kerrallaan on tuottanut tärkeää perustietoa, mutta se ei ole antanut selkeää kokonaiskuvaa kuluttajien altistumisesta. Tämän vuoksi asetelmaa tarkasteltiin kokonaisvaltaisesti, ottaen kaikki elintarvikkeista havaitut tehoainejäämät mukaan arvioon kumulatiivisesti. Aikuisten lisäksi mukana on ensi kertaa myös lapsiryhmiä. Ensimmäistä kertaa Suomessa tarkastellaan sekä pitkäaikaista että akuuttia altistusta. Esitetty kumulatiivinen riskinarviointi perustuu vuosina 2002- 2008 kasvinsuojeluainejäämien valvonnassa yhteensä 10 565 elintarvikenäytteestä saatuihin tutkimustuloksiin. Lisäksi riskinarvioinnissa on käytetty Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitoksen ja DIPP-konsortion tuottamia aikuisten ja lasten ruoankulutustietoja (Finravinto 2007 ja DIPP-ravintotutkimukset). Ravinnon välittämälle tehoainejäämien altistukselle on tunnusomaista matala perustaso, jossa esiintyy lyhytaikaisia altistushuippuja. Kun ravinnon välittämä pitkäaikainen altistus kasvinsuojeluaineille on hyväksyttävällä tasolla, ei lyhytaikaisen altistuksen tilanne kaikilta osin ole yhtä hyvä. Kolmivuotiailla lapsilla todennäköisyys aRfD:n ylittymiselle on organofosfaattien ja karbamaattien osalta ollut suurempi kuin 0,1 % eli enemmän kuin yksi tuhannesta, mikä ei vielä vastaa tavoitteita. Ylitykset aiheutuvat tuontituotteista,koska niiden taustalla olevia karbamaatteja ja organofosfaatteja ei enää käytetä Suomessa. Myönteistä kehitystä on tapahtunut, mutta tilannetta on aiheellista edelleen seurata.

Samarbete genom lagstiftning. Samarbetsförfarandets organisation, procedur och innehåll

Samarbetslagen är en omstridd lag. Innan lagen trädde i kraft i början av år 1979 fanns på arbetstagarsidan förhoppningar om att skapa en lag om reell företagsdemokrati medan man från arbetsgivarhåll var rädd att personalen skulle få ett alltför stort inflytande på beslutsfattandet. En oro fanns också att medbestämmandet skulle byråkratisera beslutsfattandet inom företagen. I dag anser många arbetstagare att samarbetsförfarandet endast används vid massuppsägningar, nedskärningar och rationaliseringar men i övrigt glömts bort. Samarbetsförfarandet och regleringen av det är en viktig och aktuell fråga, eftersom samarbetsförfarandet utgör det forum i samarbetet mellan arbetsgivare och personal där nedskärningar och massuppsägningar diskuteras. Avhandlingens syfte är att analysera hur samarbetsförfarandet fungerar utifrån samarbetslagen. Målet är att granska samarbetsförfarandet ur ett perspektiv där samarbetsförfarandet ses som en potentiell möjlighet och ett verktyg till framgångsrik företagsverksamhet och personalledarskap. I analysen utgår författaren från samarbetslagens 1 §. Syftet med samarbetsförfarandet är att utveckla företagets verksamhet och arbetsförhållanden, att effektivera samarbetet mellan arbetsgivare och personal samt personalens interna samverkan. Samarbetsförfarandet skall utöka personalens möjligheter att påverka behandlingen av ärenden som gäller deras arbete och arbetsplats i enlighet med lagen. Enligt samarbetsförfarandet skall arbetsgivaren rådgöra med arbetstagarna och deras företrädare om de viktigaste ärendena som påverkar personalens ställning och arbetsförhållande innan besluten fattas. Avhandlingen granskar hur lagen tillämpas i dag och hur lagstiftningen kan utvecklas för att effektivera samarbetet i framtiden.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Empirical Studies on Labor Market Matching (summary section only)

This thesis analyzes how matching takes place at the Finnish labor market from three different angles. The Finnish labor market has undergone severe structural changes following the economic crisis in the early 1990s. The labor market has had problems adjusting from these changes and hence a high and persistent unemployment has followed. In this thesis I analyze if matching problems, and in particular if changes in matching, can explain some of this persistence. The thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay Finnish Evidence of Changes in the Labor Market Matching Process the matching process at the Finnish labor market is analyzed. The key finding is that the matching process has changed thoroughly between the booming 1980s and the post-crisis period. The importance of the number of unemployed, and in particular long-term unemployed, for the matching process has vanished. More unemployed do not increase matching as theory predicts but rather the opposite. In the second essay, The Aggregate Matching Function and Directed Search -Finnish Evidence, stock-flow matching as a potential micro foundation of the aggregate matching function is studied. In the essay I show that newly unemployed match mainly with the stock of vacancies while longer term unemployed match with the inflow of vacancies. When aggregating I still find evidence of the traditional aggregate matching function. This could explain the huge support the aggregate matching function has received despite its odd randomness assumption. The third essay, How do Registered Job Seekers really match? -Finnish occupational level Evidence, studies matching for nine occupational groups and finds that very different matching problems exist for different occupations. In this essay also misspecification stemming from non-corresponding variables is dealt with through the introduction of a completely new set of variables. The new outflow measure used is vacancies filled with registered job seekers and it is matched by the supply side measure registered job seekers.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Intraday Dynamics of International Equity Markets

The increased availability of high frequency data sets have led to important new insights in understanding of financial markets. The use of high frequency data is interesting and persuasive, since it can reveal new information that cannot be seen in lower data aggregation. This dissertation explores some of the many important issues connected with the use, analysis and application of high frequency data. These include the effects of intraday seasonal, the behaviour of time varying volatility, the information content of various market data, and the issue of inter market linkages utilizing high frequency 5 minute observations from major European and the U.S stock indices, namely DAX30 of Germany, CAC40 of France, SMI of Switzerland, FTSE100 of the UK and SP500 of the U.S. The first essay in the dissertation shows that there are remarkable similarities in the intraday behaviour of conditional volatility across European equity markets. Moreover, the U.S macroeconomic news announcements have significant cross border effect on both, European equity returns and volatilities. The second essay reports substantial intraday return and volatility linkages across European stock indices of the UK and Germany. This relationship appears virtually unchanged by the presence or absence of the U.S stock market. However, the return correlation among the U.K and German markets rises significantly following the U.S stock market opening, which could largely be described as a contemporaneous effect. The third essay sheds light on market microstructure issues in which traders and market makers learn from watching market data, and it is this learning process that leads to price adjustments. This study concludes that trading volume plays an important role in explaining international return and volatility transmissions. The examination concerning asymmetry reveals that the impact of the positive volume changes is larger on foreign stock market volatility than the negative changes. The fourth and the final essay documents number of regularities in the pattern of intraday return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads. This study also reports a contemporaneous and positive relationship between the intraday return volatility, bid ask spread and unexpected trading volume. These results verify the role of trading volume and bid ask quotes as proxies for information arrival in producing contemporaneous and subsequent intraday return volatility. Moreover, asymmetric effect of trading volume on conditional volatility is also confirmed. Overall, this dissertation explores the role of information in explaining the intraday return and volatility dynamics in international stock markets. The process through which the information is incorporated in stock prices is central to all information-based models. The intraday data facilitates the investigation that how information gets incorporated into security prices as a result of the trading behavior of informed and uninformed traders. Thus high frequency data appears critical in enhancing our understanding of intraday behavior of various stock markets’ variables as it has important implications for market participants, regulators and academic researchers.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Hur uppkommer värde för kunden?

Värdeforskningen inom marknadsföringen har traditionellt fokuserat på utbyten och det upplevda värdet av företagets produkter. Den gängse synen på värde har därför också utmärkts av en produktions- och transaktionsorienterad syn där värde anses produceras i företagets processer och sedan överlåts till kunden i samband med ett utbyte. I den här studien betraktas värde i stället ur ett kund- och relationsbaserat perspektiv. Utgångspunkten är att värde för kunden är något som företaget vare sig kan producera eller leverera. Kunden betraktas i den här studien därför som subjekt i sin egen värdeskapande process, medan varor, tjänster och kundens relationer till olika företag betraktas som resurser eller objekt i kundens egna värdeskapande aktiviteter. Tyngdpunkten flyttas från företaget som värdeskapare till kunden som värdeskapare vilket innebär en omarbetad logik för värdeskapande. Det relationsbaserade perspektivet på värde vidgar ytterligare synen på hur värde uppkommer för kunden. Studien visar att kundens värdeskapande kontext omfattar mer än enbart produkten och den värdebedömning som görs i en köpsituation. Detta påtalar behovet av att man analyserar hur värde uppkommer för kunden över tiden och ur ett helhetsperspektiv. Studiens syfte är att analysera hur värde uppkommer för kunden – i vilka aktiviteter och med vilka resurser. Målet är att finna en balans i synen på relationen mellan kund och företag och att lära om hur företagets marknadsföringsprocesser kan utvecklas genom att kundens egna värdeskapande aktiviteter analyseras. Studien är inriktad på konsumentmarknaden och den empiriska miljön utgörs av bilägare som intervjuats med en longitudinell ansats. Avhandlingen utmynnar i en teoretisk referensram om hur värde uppkommer för kunden. Olika dimensioner av värdebegreppet identifieras och analyseras och en kund- och relationsbaserad värdeterminologi utvecklas. I stället för att analysera det upplevda värdet av företagets produkt uppmanas marknadsföraren här att analysera hur värde uppkommer för kunden som individ över tiden. Detta uppnås genom att företaget lär känna kundens värdeskapande kontext i syfte att förstå var (i vilka aktiviteter) och hur (under vilka premisser) värde uppkommer för kunden. På basis av denna information kan företaget ta ställning till sin roll i kundens värdeskapande process och även visionera om vilken roll företaget kunde ha.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Intraday Linkages across International Equity Markets

Utilizing concurrent 5-minute returns, the intraday dynamics and inter-market dependencies in international equity markets were investigated. A strong intraday cyclical autocorrelation structure in the volatility process was observed to be caused by the diurnal pattern. A major rise in contemporaneous cross correlation among European stock markets was also noticed to follow the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results indicated that the returns for UK and Germany responded to each other’s innovations, both in terms of the first and second moment dependencies. In contrast to earlier research, the US stock market did not cause significant volatility spillover to the European markets.