CMR imaging predicts death and other adverse events in suspected cardiac sarcoidosis

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to demonstrate that the presence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is a predictor of death and other adverse events in patients with suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. BACKGROUND Cardiac sarcoidosis is the most important cause of patient mortality in systemic sarcoidosis, yielding a 5-year mortality rate between 25% and 66% despite immunosuppressive treatment. Other groups have shown that LGE may hold promise in predicting future adverse events in this patient group. METHODS We included 155 consecutive patients with systemic sarcoidosis who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for workup of suspected cardiac sarcoid involvement. The median follow-up time was 2.6 years. Primary endpoints were death, aborted sudden cardiac death, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) discharge. Secondary endpoints were ventricular tachycardia (VT) and nonsustained VT. RESULTS LGE was present in 39 patients (25.5%). The presence of LGE yields a Cox hazard ratio (HR) of 31.6 for death, aborted sudden cardiac death, or appropriate ICD discharge, and of 33.9 for any event. This is superior to functional or clinical parameters such as left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), LV end-diastolic volume, or presentation as heart failure, yielding HRs between 0.99 (per % increase LVEF) and 1.004 (presentation as heart failure), and between 0.94 and 1.2 for potentially lethal or other adverse events, respectively. Except for 1 patient dying from pulmonary infection, no patient without LGE died or experienced any event during follow-up, even if the LV was enlarged and the LVEF severely impaired. CONCLUSIONS Among our population of sarcoid patients with nonspecific symptoms, the presence of myocardial scar indicated by LGE was the best independent predictor of potentially lethal events, as well as other adverse events, yielding a Cox HR of 31.6 and of 33.9, respectively. These data support the necessity for future large, longitudinal follow-up studies to definitely establish LGE as an independent predictor of cardiac death in sarcoidosis, as well as to evaluate the incremental prognostic value of additional parameters.

Beneficial Effects of a Semi-Intensive Stroke Unit are Beyond the Monitor.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Precise mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of the stroke unit (SU) are not fully established. Studies that compare monitored stroke units (semi-intensive type, SI-SU) versus an intensive care unit (ICU)-based mobile stroke team (MST-ICU) are lacking. Although inequalities in access to stroke unit care are globally improving, acute stroke patients may be admitted to Intensive Care Units for monitoring and followed by a mobile stroke team in hospital's lacking an SU with continuous cardiovascular monitoring. We aimed at comparing the stroke outcome between SI-SU and MST-ICU and hypothesized that the benefits of SI-SU are driven by additional elements other than cardiovascular monitoring, which is equally offered in both care systems. METHODS In a single-center setting, we compared the unfavorable outcomes (dependency and mortality) at 3 months in consecutive patients with ischemic stroke or spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage admitted to a stroke unit with semi-intensive monitoring (SI-SU) to a cohort of stroke patients hospitalized in an ICU and followed by a mobile stroke team (MST-ICU) during an equal observation period of 27 months. Secondary objectives included comparing mortality and the proportion of patients with excellent outcomes (modified Rankin Score (mRS) 0-1). Equal cardiovascular monitoring was offered in patients admitted in both SI-SU and MST-ICU. RESULTS 458 patients were treated in the SI-SU and compared to the MST-ICU (n = 370) cohort. The proportion of death and dependency after 3 months was significantly improved for patients in the SI-SU compared to MST-ICU (p < 0.001; aOR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.31-0.65). The shift analysis of the mRS distribution showed significant shift to the lower mRS in the SI-SU group, p < 0.001. The proportion of mortality in patients after 3 months also differed between the MST-ICU and the SI-SU (p < 0.05), but after adjusting for confounders this association was not significant (aOR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.31-1.13). The proportion of patients with excellent outcome was higher in the SI-SU (59.4 vs. 44.9%, p < 0.001) but the relationship was no more significant after adjustment (aOR = 1.17; 95% CI: 0.87-1.5). CONCLUSIONS Our study shows that moving from a stroke team in a monitored setting (ICU) to an organized stroke unit leads to a significant reduction in the 3 months unfavorable outcome in patients with an acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. Cardiovascular monitoring is indispensable, but benefits of a semi-intensive Stroke Unit are driven by additional elements beyond intensive cardiovascular monitoring. This observation supports the ongoing development of Stroke Centers for efficient stroke care. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Sudden cardiac death in forensic medicine – Swiss recommendations for a multidisciplinary approach

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is by definition unexpected and cardiac in nature. The investigation is almost invariably performed by a forensic pathologist. Under these circumstances the role of the forensic pathologist is twofold: (1.) to determine rapidly and efficiently the cause and manner of death and (2.) to initiate a multidisciplinary process in order to prevent further deaths in existing family members. If the death is determined to be due to "natural" causes the district attorney in charge often refuses further examinations. However, additional examinations, i.e. extensive histopathological investigations and/or molecular genetic analyses, are necessary in many cases to clarify the cause of death. The Swiss Society of Legal Medicine created a multidisciplinary working group together with clinical and molecular geneticists and cardiologists in the hope of harmonising the approach to investigate SCD. The aim of this paper is to close the gap between the Swiss recommendations for routine forensic post-mortem cardiac examination and clinical recommendations for genetic testing of inherited cardiac diseases; this is in order to optimise the diagnostic procedures and preventive measures for living family members. The key points of the recommendations are (1.) the forensic autopsy procedure for all SCD victims under 40 years of age, (2.) the collection and storage of adequate samples for genetic testing, (3.) communication with the families, and (4.) a multidisciplinary approach including cardiogenetic counselling.

Deep Into the Fibers! Postmortem Diffusion Tensor Imaging in Forensic Radiology.

PURPOSE In traumatic brain injury, diffusion-weighted and diffusion tensor imaging of the brain are essential techniques for determining the pathology sustained and the outcome. Postmortem cross-sectional imaging is an established adjunct to forensic autopsy in death investigation. The purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate postmortem diffusion tensor imaging in forensics for its feasibility, influencing factors and correlation to the cause of death compared with autopsy. METHODS Postmortem computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and diffusion tensor imaging with fiber tracking were performed in 10 deceased subjects. The Likert scale grading of colored fractional anisotropy maps was correlated to the body temperature and intracranial pathology to assess the diagnostic feasibility of postmortem diffusion tensor imaging and fiber tracking. RESULTS Optimal fiber tracking (>15,000 fiber tracts) was achieved with a body temperature at 10°C. Likert scale grading showed no linear correlation (P > 0.7) to fiber tract counts. No statistically significant correlation between total fiber count and postmortem interval could be observed (P = 0.122). Postmortem diffusion tensor imaging and fiber tracking allowed for radiological diagnosis in cases with shearing injuries but was impaired in cases with pneumencephalon and intracerebral mass hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS Postmortem diffusion tensor imaging with fiber tracking provides an exceptional in situ insight "deep into the fibers" of the brain with diagnostic benefit in traumatic brain injury and axonal injuries in the assessment of the underlying cause of death, considering influencing factors for optimal imaging technique.

Postmortem non-invasive virtual autopsy: death by hanging in a car.

A body was found behind a car with a noose tied around its neck, the other end of the rope tied to a tree. Apparently the man committed suicide by driving away with the noose tied around his neck and was dragged out of the car through the open hatchback. postmortem multislice-computed tomography (MSCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) indicated that the cause of death was cerebral hypoxia due to classic strangulation by hanging, and not due to a brainstem lesion because of a hang-man fracture as would be expected in such a dynamic situation. Furthermore, the MRI displayed intramuscular haemorrhage, bleeding into the clavicular insertions of the sternocleidomastoid muscles and subcutaneous neck tissue. We conclude that MSCT and MRI are useful instruments with an increased value compared with 2D radiographs to augment the external findings of bodies when an autopsy is refused. But further postmortem research and comparing validation is needed.

Sudden cardiac death among general population and sport related population in forensic experience

PURPOSE: The goal of the study was to assess the causes and analyze the cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) victims referred to the department of forensic medicine in Lausanne, with a particular focus on sports-related fatalities including also leisure sporting activities. To date, no such published assessment has been done nor for Switzerland nor for the central Europe. METHODS: This is a retrospective study based on autopsy records of SCD victims, from 10 to 50 years of age, performed at the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne from 1995 to 2010. The study population was divided into two groups: sport-related (SR) and not sport-related (NSR) SCDs. RESULTS: During the study period, 188 cases of SCD were recorded: 166 (88%) were NSR and 22 (12%) SR. The mean age of the 188 victims was 37.3 +/- 10.1 years, with the majority of the cases being male (79%). A cause of death was established in 84%, and the pathology responsible for death varied according to the age of the victims. In the NSR group, the mean age was 38.2 +/- 9.2 years and there was 82% of male. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was the main diagnosis in the victims aged 30-50 years. The majority of morphologically normal hearts were observed in the 15-29 year age range. There was no case in the 10-14 year age range. In the SR group, 91% of victims died during leisure sporting activities. In this group the mean age was 30.5 +/- 13.5 years, with the majority being male (82%). The main cause of death was CAD, with 6 cases (27%) and a mean age of 40.8 +/- 5.5 years. The youngest victim with CAD was 33 years old. A morphologically normal heart was observed in 5 cases (23%), with a mean age of 24.4 +/- 14.9 years. The most frequently implicated sporting activities were hiking (26%) and swimming (17%). CONCLUSION: In this study, CAD was the most common cause of death in both groups. Although this pathology most often affects adults over 35 years of age, there were also some victims under 35 years of age in both groups. SCDs during sport are mostly related to leisure sporting activities, for which preventive measures are not yet usually established. This study highlights also the need to inform both athletes and non athletes of the cardiovascular risks during sport activities and the role of a forensic autopsy and registries involving forensic pathologists for SR SCD.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

The Association Between Triglyceride and Leptin Levels in Obese Subjects Following a Low-Carbohydrate or Low-Fat Diet

Obesity has been cited as the second leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Studies have determined that at risk overweight and obese individuals have high circulating levels of leptin indicative of leptin resistance as well as elevated levels of plasma triglycerides. Postulates have been formed that link elevated levels of triglycerides with the inhibition of leptin across the blood-brain barrier. If a method of lowering triglycerides is achieved, leptin should be able to cross the blood-brain barrier and reach the ypothalamus, thus regulating body weight through a decrease in appetite and increase in energy expenditure. The primary aim of this study was to compare the effects of both carbohydrate and fat restricted diets on plasma triglycerides and leptin concentrations in overweight and obese subjects with hypertriglyceridemia. Forty subjects were randomly assigned to either the low carbohydrate or low fat diet group for a 12 wk period. Plasma triglyceride and leptin concentrations in the blood were analyzed before and after the 12 wk period to assess diet-induced changes. Both groups had a significant reduction in body weight, though the effect was much greater in the carbohydrate restricted diet group. Fasting and postprandial plasma triglycerides also decreased to a greater extent in the low carbohydrate diet group. Similarly, leptin levels decreased to a greater extent in the carbohydrate restricted diet group. The changes in leptin levels were directly related to the changes in both fasting and postprandial triglyceride levels. The results from this study provide preliminary evidence of diet-induced triglyceride reductions as an underlying mechanism in lowering plasma leptin and improving leptin sensitivity. Further, they provide evidence that an increase in triglyceride levels is at least partially responsible for leptin resistance and reduced leptin sensitivity in obese hypertriglyceridemic individuals. This novel discovery is important as it raises the possibility that other methods of lowering triglycerides may improve the efficiency of leptin transport and ultimately improve fat metabolism in overweight and obese individuals.

Mechanism of IFN-induced apoptosis and sensitization by the proteasome inhibitor bortezomib in bladder cancer cells

Bladder cancer is the fifth most common cancer with more than 50,000 cases diagnosed each year. Interferon-α (IFNα) is mostly used in combination with BCG for the treatment of transitional cell carcinoma (TCC). To examine the effects of IFNα on bladder cancer cells, I analyzed a panel of 20 bladder cancer cell lines in terms of their sensitivity to IFNα-induced apoptosis and the underlying mechanisms. I identified three categories: cells that die after 48hr, after 72h, and cells resistant even after 72hr of IFNα treatment. Examination of the IFN-signal transduction pathway revealed that the defect was not due to abrogation of IFN signaling. Further analysis demonstrated dependency of IFN-induced apoptosis on caspase-8, implicating the role of death receptors in IFN-induced cell death. Of the six most-IFN-sensitive cell lines, the majority upregulated Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) at the mRNA and protein level and IFN-induced cell death was mediated through TRAIL, while a minority of the most IFN-sensitive cells undergo apoptosis through a TNFα-dependent mechanism. IFNα resistance was due to either absence of TRAIL upregulation at the mRNA or protein level, resistance to exogenous rhTRAIL itself or lack of sensitization to IFN-induced cell death. Downregulation of XIAP, or XIAP inactivation through its regulator NFκB has been reported to sensitize tumor cells to death receptor-induced cell death. Baseline and IFN-inducible XIAP levels were examined in the most and least IFN-sensitive cells, knocking down XIAP and the p65 subunit of NFκB enhanced IFN-induced cell death, implicating XIAP downregulation as a mechanism through which bladder cancer cells are sensitized to IFN-induced apoptosis. To determine whether or not the proteasome inhibitor Bortezomib (BZ) sensitizes bladder cancer cells to IFN-induced cell death, the combined effects of IFN+BZ and the underlying molecular mechanisms were examined both in vitro and in vivo using two bladder xenograft models. In both models, tumor growth inhibition was the result of either increased cell death of tumor cells exerted by the two agents and/or inhibition of angiogenesis. In vitro, MAP downregulation in response to the combined treatment of IFN+BZ accounts for one of the mechanisms mediating IFN+BZ cell death in bladder cancer cells. ^

Exploring parents' memories of their child's death related sensory experiences as a dimension of grieving

Little is known about how dying children and their parents experience death. Dying children have reported death related sensory experiences (DRSEs), defined as seeing or hearing someone or something not visible or audible to others, associated with dying. Although parents report that they and the dying child benefit from these experiences, healthcare providers often unknowingly dismiss them. The aims of this phenomenological inquiry were to describe children's DRSEs and their meaning from the parents' perspectives. Four fathers and six mothers of African American, Caucasian, or Hispanic ethnicity, all Christian, ranging in age from 35 to 59 years, whose child died 23 to 52 months prior and was treated at a children's cancer center, were interviewed in the home or hospital setting of their choice. Children's ages at the time of their death ranged from 4 to 13 years. A modification of van Kaarn's phenomenological method of analysis was used to analyze data. Themes emerging from the data for the first aim were: perceiving someone or something from a spiritual realm others could not, expressing awareness tempered by parental reactions, and embracing transcendence. Themes emerging from the data for the second aim were: spiritual beings prepared child; child revealed reality, preparing parents; and child transcended wholly, easing parents' grief. Post-interview surveys revealed that parents found participating in this study a "very positive" or "positive" experience, particularly being able to tell the story of their child. Children's DRSEs have clinical implications for all who provide care near the end of life. Informing parents of DRSEs, cautioning that not all dying children express them, may help parents to anticipate this phenomenon, which may decrease anxiety when their child expresses them, increasing the opportunity for open dialogue between parent and child about dying and death, and decrease regrets associated with being unreceptive to their child's expressions of death awareness. Validating a child's DRSE can have profound effects on bereaved parents. Examining DRSEs from the child's perspective and the influence of informing parents of DRSEs on the dying experience of the child and the parental grieving process are recommended. ^

Roles of insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 in gastrointestinal stromal tumors

Imatinib mesylate, a selective inhibitor of KIT, PDGFR, and Abl kinases, has shown significant success as a therapy for patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). However, the underlying mechanisms of imatinib-induced cytotoxicity are not well understood. Using gene expression profiling and real-time PCR for target validation, we identified insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP3) to be to be up-regulated after imatinib treatment in imatinib-sensitive GISTs. IGFBP3 is a multifunctional protein that regulates cell proliferation and survival and mediates the effects of a variety of anti-cancer agents through IGF-dependent and IGF-independent mechanisms. Therefore, we hypothesized that IGFBP3 mediates GIST cell response to imatinib. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated IGFBP3 protein levels in two KIT mutant, imatinib-sensitive GIST cell lines and assessed the resultant changes in cell viability, survival, and imatinib sensitivity. In GIST882 cells, endogenous IGFBP3 was required for cell viability. However, inhibiting imatinib-induced IGFBP3 up-regulation by RNA interference or neutralization resulted in reduced drug sensitivity, suggesting that IGFBP3 sensitizes GIST882 cells to imatinib. GIST-T1 cells, on the other hand, had no detectable levels of endogenous IGFBP3, nor did imatinib induce IGFBP3 up-regulation, in contrast to our previous findings. IGFBP3 overexpression in GIST-T1 cells reduced viability but did not induce cell death; rather, the cells became polyploid through a mechanism that may involve attenuated Cdc20 expression and securin degradation. Moreover, IGFBP3 overexpression resulted in a loss of KIT activation and decreased levels of mature KIT. Consistent with this, GIST-T1 cells overexpressing IGFBP3 were less sensitive to imatinib. Furthermore, as neither GIST882 cells nor GIST-T1 cells expressed detectable levels of IGF-1R, IGFBP3 is likely not exerting its effects by modulating IGF signaling through IGF-1R or IR/IGF-1R hybrid receptors in these cell lines. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that IGFBP3 has cell-dependent effects and would, therefore, not be an ideal marker for identifying imatinib response in GISTs. Nevertheless, our results provide preliminary evidence that IGFBP3 may have some therapeutic benefits in GISTs. ^

Hormone therapy and physical activity as predictors of lung cancer risk and survival: The California Teachers Study

Cigarette smoking is responsible for the majority of lung cancer cases worldwide; however, a proportion of never smokers still develop lung cancer over their lifetime, prompting investigation into additional factors that may modify lung cancer incidence, as well as mortality. Although hormone therapy (HT), physical activity (PA), and lung cancer have been previously examined, the associations remain unclear. This study investigated exposure to HT and PA that may modulate underlying mechanisms of lung cancer etiology and progression among women by using existing, de-identified data from the California Teachers Study (CTS).^ The CTS cohort, established in 1995–1996, has 133,479 active and retired female teachers and administrators, recruited through the California State Teachers Retirement System, and followed annually for cancer diagnosis, death, and change of address. Each woman enrolled in the CTS returned a questionnaire covering a wide variety of issues related to cancer risk and women's health, including recent and past HT use and physical activity, as well as active and environmental cigarette smoke exposure. Complete data to assess the associations between HT and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 60,592 postmenopausal women. Between 1995 and 2007, 727 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 441 of these died. Complete data to assess the associations between PA and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 118,513 women. Between 1995 and 2007, 853 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 516 of these died.^ After careful adjustment for smoking habits and other potential confounders, no measure of HT use was associated with lung cancer risk; however, any HT use (vs. no use) was associated with a decrease in lung-cancer-specific mortality. Specifically, among women who only used estrogen (E-only), decreases in lung cancer mortality were seen for recent use, but not for former use; no association was observed for estrogen plus progestin (E+P). Furthermore, among former users of HT, a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer mortality was observed for E-only use within 5 years prior to baseline, but not for E-only use >5 years prior to baseline. Neither long-term recreational PA nor recent recreational PA alone were associated with lung cancer risk; however, among women with a BMI<25 and ever smokers, high long-term moderate+strenuous PA was associated with a decrease in lung cancer risk. Women with non-local disease showed a decrease in lung cancer mortality associated with increasing duration of strenuous long-term activity, and 1.50-3.00 h/wk/y of recent moderate or recent strenuous PA. Long-term moderate PA was associated with decreased lung cancer mortality in never smokers, whereas recent moderate PA was associated with increased lung cancer mortality in current smokers. ^ Placing our findings in the context of the current literature, HT does not appear to be associated with lung cancer risk and previous studies reporting a protective effect of HT use on lung cancer risk may be subject to residual confounding by smoking. Looking at our findings regarding PA overall, the evidence still remains inconclusive regarding whether or not physical activity influence lung cancer risk or mortality. Our results suggest that recreational PA may associated with decreased lung cancer risk among women with BMI<25 and ever smoking-women; however, residual confounding by smoking should be strongly considered. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate lifetime recreational PA and lung cancer mortality among women. Our results contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding non-smoking-related risk factors for lung cancer incidence and mortality among women. Given the potential clinical and interventional significance, further study and validation of these findings is warranted.^

Association between cardiorespiratory fitness and Alzheimer's mortality: A prospective cohort study

Context. Alzheimer’s disease is a major source of morbidity and mortality in aging societies. Preventive measures, such as increasing cardiorespiratory fitness, to reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s disease mortality have not been sufficiently examined.^ Objective. To examine the association between levels of cardiorespiratory fitness and Alzheimer’s disease mortality.^ Design, Setting, and Patients. A prospective cohort study of 53,911 men and 18,876 women (mean age, 51.4 [SD, 10.0] years; range 20-88) enrolled in the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study who completed a baseline health examination during 1970-2006. The primary exposure, cardiorespiratory fitness, was assessed via a maximal exercise test. Fitness was categorized according to age- and sex-specific tertiles based on the participants’ distribution of maximal treadmill exercise test duration, in metabolic equivalent tasks (METs). The main outcome measure was Alzheimer’s disease mortality, defined as the underlying or contributing cause of death using the National Death Index and death certificates through December 31, 2006.^ Results. There were 175 Alzheimer’s disease deaths during a mean follow up of 37 years and 1,309,170 person-years of exposure. Women in the high fitness category had a 70% reduction in risk of Alzheimer’s mortality compared to women in the low fitness category (HR=0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8; P=.02), while adjusting for potential confounders. Similarly, women in the moderate fitness category had a 70% reduction in risk for AD mortality compared to women in the low fit category (HR=0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.7; P=.005). Among men, the relationship between fitness level and AD mortality risk was examined but none were of statistical significance. The adjusted comparison of men in the high fitness category to low fit men yielded an HR of 0.9 (95% CI, 0.6-1.5; P=.79), while moderately fit men compared to low fit men yielded an HR of 1.3 (95% CI, 0.9-1.9; P=.21).^ Conclusions. Higher levels of cardiorespiratory fitness were associated with decreased risk of AD mortality, in women. No statistically significant association was found among men. Physical fitness may be an important protective factor against Alzheimer’s disease death in women, further supporting its clinical and public health values.^

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^