Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Inventory of veterinary syndromic surveillance initiatives in Europe (Triple-S project): current situation and perspectives.

Within the current context that favours the emergence of new diseases, syndromic surveillance (SyS) appears increasingly more relevant tool for the early detection of unexpected health events. The Triple-S project (Syndromic Surveillance Systems in Europe), co-financed by the European Commission, was launched in September 2010 for a three year period to promote both human and animal health SyS in European countries. Objectives of the project included performing an inventory of current and planned European animal health SyS systems and promoting knowledge transfer between SyS experts. This study presents and discusses the results of the Triple-S inventory of European veterinary SyS initiatives. European SyS systems were identified through an active process based on a questionnaire sent to animal health experts involved in SyS in Europe. Results were analyzed through a descriptive analysis and a multiple factor analysis (MFA) in order to establish a typology of the European SyS initiatives. Twenty seven European SyS systems were identified from twelve countries, at different levels of development, from project phase to active systems. Results of this inventory showed a real interest of European countries for SyS but also highlighted the novelty of this field. This survey highlighted the diversity of SyS systems in Europe in terms of objectives, population targeted, data providers, indicators monitored. For most SyS initiatives, statistical analysis of surveillance results was identified as a limitation in using the data. MFA results distinguished two types of systems. The first one belonged to the private sector, focused on companion animals and had reached a higher degree of achievement. The second one was based on mandatory collected data, targeted livestock species and is still in an early project phase. The exchange of knowledge between human and animal health sectors was considered useful to enhance SyS. In the same way that SyS is complementary to traditional surveillance, synergies between human and animal health SyS could be an added value, most notably to enhance timeliness, sensitivity and help interpreting non-specific signals.

Correlation between broiler lameness and anatomical measurements of bone using radiographical projections with assessments of consistency across and within radiographs.

Lameness represents a major welfare and production issue in the poultry industry with a recent survey estimating 27% of birds lame and 3% unable to walk by 40 d of age. A variety of factors may induce lameness and are typically grouped into 2 broad classes on the basis of being infectious or skeletal in nature with the latter accounting for the majority of cases. The current work sought to build upon a large body of literature assessing the anatomical properties of bone in lame birds. Our specific objectives sought to identify relationships between relevant anatomical properties of the tibia and metatarsus using digital quantification from radiographs of legs and a measure of walking difficulty. Resulting output was statistically analyzed to assess 1) observer reliability for consistency in placing the leg during the radiograph procedure and quantification of the various measures within a radiograph, 2) the relationship between the various measurements of anatomical bone properties and sex, bird mass, and gait score, and 3) the relationship between each measurement and leg symmetry. Our anatomical bone measures were found to be reliable (intra-rater and test-retest reliabilities < 0.75) within radiograph for all measures and 8 of the 10 measures across radiographs. Several measures of bone properties in the tibia correlated to difficulty walking as measured by gait score (P < 0.05), indicating greater angulations with increasing lameness. Of the measures that manifested a gait score × bird mass interaction, heavier birds appeared to exhibit less angulation with increasing difficulty walking with lighter birds the opposite. These interactions suggest possibilities for influencing effects of activity or feed intake on bone mineralization with the bone angulation observed. Our efforts agree with that of others and indicate that angulation of the tibia may be related to lameness, though subsequent efforts involving comprehensive measures of bird activity, growth rates, and internal bone structure will be needed if the validity of the measures are to be accepted.

Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results

Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections.

A stochastic principle behind polar properties of condensed molecular matter

A statistical mechanics view leads to the conclusion that polar molecules allowed to populate a degree of freedom for orientational disorder in a condensed phase thermalize into a bi-polar state featuring zero net polarity. In cases of orientational disorder polar order of condensed molecular matter can only exist in corresponding sectors of opposite average polarities. Channel type inclusion compounds, single component molecular crystals, solid solutions, optically anomalous crystals, inorganic ionic crystals, biomimetic crystals and biological tissues investigated by scanning pyroelectric and phase sensitive second harmonic generation microscopy all showed domains of opposite polarities in their final grown state. For reported polar molecular crystal structures it is assumed that kinetic hindrance along one direction of the polar axis is preventing the formation of a bi-polar state, thus allowing for a kinetically controlled mono-domain state. In this review we summarize theoretical and experimental findings leading to far reaching conclusions on the polar state of solid molecular matter. “… no stationary state … of a system has an electrical dipole moment.” P. W. Anderson, Science, 1972, 177, 393.

Consistency of thromboelastometry analysis under scrutiny: Results of a systematic evaluation within and between analysers.

While the use of thromboelastometry analysis (ROTEM®) in evaluation of haemostasis is rapidly increasing, important validity parameters of testing remain inadequately examined. We aimed to study systematically the consistency of thromboelastometry parameters within individual tests regarding measurements between different analysers, between different channels of the same analyser, between morning and afternoon measurements (circadian variation), and if measured four weeks apart. Citrated whole blood samples from 40 healthy volunteers were analysed with two analysers in parallel. EXTEM, INTEM, FIBTEM, HEPTEM and APTEM tests were conducted. A Bland-Altman comparison was performed and homogeneity of variances was tested using the pitman test. P-value ranges were used to classify the level of homogeneity (p<0.15 - low homogeneity, p = 0.15 to 0.5 - intermediate homogeneity, p>0.5 high homogeneity). Less than half of all comparisons made showed high homogeneity of variances (p>0.5) and in about a fifth of comparisons data distributions were heterogeneous (p<0.15). There was no clear pattern for homogeneity. On average, comparisons of MCF, ML and LI30 measurements tended to be better, but none of the tests assessed outperformed another. In conclusion, systematic investigation reveals large differences in the results of some thromboelastometry parameters and lack of consistency. Clinicians and scientists should take these inconsistencies into account and focus on parameters with a higher homogeneity such as MCF.

The Role of Consistency and Diversity in Building Knowledge in Family Preservation

Family preservation has been criticized for implementing programs that are not theoretically founded. One result of this circumstance is a lack of information regarding processes and outcomes of family preservation services. The knowledge base of family preservation is thus rather limited at present and will remain limited unless theory is consistently integrated within individual programs. A model for conceptualizing how theoretical consistency may be implemented within programs is presented and applied to family preservation. It is also necessary for programs to establish theoretical consistency before theoretical diversity, both within individual and across multiple programs, in order to advance the field in meaningful ways. A developmental cycle of knowledge generation is presented and applied to family preservation.

Intussusceptive microvascular growth: a common alternative to capillary sprouting.

Intussusceptive capillary growth represents a new principle for microvascular growth as described in the lungs of growing rats. According to this concept, the capillary network expands by the formation of slender transcapillary tissue pillars, which give rise to new vascular meshes. The process was first observed in Mercox casts of the lung microvasculature, which revealed the existence of multiple tiny holes with diameters around 1.5 microns. Consecutive transmission electron microscopic investigation of serial sections demonstrated that the holes corresponded to slender tissue pillars (Burri and Tarek, 1990). The corrosion cast technique thus appears to be an adequate screening method for intussusceptive growth. In the present investigation, Mercox casts of various vascular systems, namely, those of the eye, submandibular gland, heart, liver, stomach, small and large intestine, trachea, kidney, uterus and ovary were prepared from rats aged between 4 and 9 weeks in order to screen them for the existence of the typical tiny holes representing tissue pillars. In all organs investigated, these structures were observed in various locations to a variable degree. They were mainly encountered within dilated vascular segments or at triple or quadruple branching points of the circulation. Even in capillary networks with a three-dimensional arrangement could these pillars be detected. Intussusception thus appears to be a principle of growth appertaining to many vascular systems.

Adjuvant bevacizumab-containing therapy in triple-negative breast cancer (BEATRICE): primary results of a randomised, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND The addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy improves progression-free survival in metastatic breast cancer and pathological complete response rates in the neoadjuvant setting. Micrometastases are dependent on angiogenesis, suggesting that patients might benefit from anti-angiogenic strategies in the adjuvant setting. We therefore assessed the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting for women with triple-negative breast cancer. METHODS For this open-label, randomised phase 3 trial we recruited patients with centrally confirmed triple-negative operable primary invasive breast cancer from 360 sites in 37 countries. We randomly allocated patients aged 18 years or older (1:1 with block randomisation; stratified by nodal status, chemotherapy [with an anthracycline, taxane, or both], hormone receptor status [negative vs low], and type of surgery) to receive a minimum of four cycles of chemotherapy either alone or with bevacizumab (equivalent of 5 mg/kg every week for 1 year). The primary endpoint was invasive disease-free survival (IDFS). Efficacy analyses were based on the intention-to-treat population, safety analyses were done on all patients who received at least one dose of study drug, and plasma biomarker analyses were done on all treated patients consenting to biomarker analyses and providing a measurable baseline plasma sample. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00528567. FINDINGS Between Dec 3, 2007, and March 8, 2010, we randomly assigned 1290 patients to receive chemotherapy alone and 1301 to receive bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Most patients received anthracycline-containing therapy; 1638 (63%) of the 2591 patients had node-negative disease. At the time of analysis of IDFS, median follow-up was 31·5 months (IQR 25·6-36·8) in the chemotherapy-alone group and 32·0 months (27·5-36·9) in the bevacizumab group. At the time of the primary analysis, IDFS events had been reported in 205 patients (16%) in the chemotherapy-alone group and in 188 patients (14%) in the bevacizumab group (hazard ratio [HR] in stratified log-rank analysis 0·87, 95% CI 0·72-1·07; p=0·18). 3-year IDFS was 82·7% (95% CI 80·5-85·0) with chemotherapy alone and 83·7% (81·4-86·0) with bevacizumab and chemotherapy. After 200 deaths, no difference in overall survival was noted between the groups (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·64-1·12; p=0·23). Exploratory biomarker assessment suggests that patients with high pre-treatment plasma VEGFR-2 might benefit from the addition of bevacizumab (Cox interaction test p=0·029). Use of bevacizumab versus chemotherapy alone was associated with increased incidences of grade 3 or worse hypertension (154 patients [12%] vs eight patients [1%]), severe cardiac events occurring at any point during the 18-month safety reporting period (19 [1%] vs two [<0·5%]), and treatment discontinuation (bevacizumab, chemotherapy, or both; 256 [20%] vs 30 [2%]); we recorded no increase in fatal adverse events with bevacizumab (four [<0·5%] vs three [<0·5%]). INTERPRETATION Bevacizumab cannot be recommended as adjuvant treatment in unselected patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Further follow-up is needed to assess the potential effect of bevacizumab on overall survival.

Efficacy of lead-in silibinin and subsequent triple therapy in difficult-to-treat HIV/hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients

OBJECTIVES: The efficacy of current hepatitis C virus (HCV) triple therapy, including a protease inhibitor, is limited in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced liver fibrosis and nonresponse to previous peginterferon-ribavirin. These patients have a low chance (only 30%) of achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) during triple therapy and cannot wait for next-generation anti-HCV drugs. In a pilot study, we investigated the efficacy of a lead-in therapy with silibinin before triple therapy in difficult-to-treat patients. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were HIV/HCV coinfection with advanced liver fibrosis and documented failure of previous peginterferon-ribavirin treatment. Intervention was lead-in therapy with intravenous silibinin 20 mg/kg/day for 14 days. Subsequently, peginterferon-ribavirin combined with telaprevir was initiated for 12 weeks, followed by peginterferon-ribavirin dual therapy until week 48 after initiation of triple therapy. The outcome measurements were HCV RNA after silibinin lead-in, at weeks 2, 4 and 12 of triple therapy, and SVR at week 24 after the end of treatment. RESULTS: We examined six HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (four infected with genotype 1a). All had fibrosis grade METAVIR ≥F3 and were on fully suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Mean HCV RNA decline after silibinin therapy was 2.6 log10 IU/mL (range 2-3 log10 IU/mL). Five of the six patients were virologically suppressed at weeks 2 and 4, and all six at week 12 of triple therapy. One experienced a viral breakthrough thereafter. Four of five patients (80%) showed an SVR 24. One patient had an SVR 12 but has not yet reached week 24. CONCLUSIONS: A lead-in with silibinin before triple therapy is highly effective and increases the probability of HCV treatment success in difficult-to-treat HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced liver fibrosis and previous failure of peginterferon-ribavirin.