Meanings and perceptions of patient-centeredness in social work, nursing and medicine: A comparative study.

Answering patients' evolving, more complex needs has been recognized as a main incentive for the development of interprofessional care. Thus, it is not surprising that patient-centered practice (PCP) has been adopted as a major outcome for interprofessional education. Nevertheless, little research has focused on how PCP is perceived across the professions. This study aimed to address this issue by adopting a phenomenological approach and interviewing three groups of professionals: social workers (n = 10), nurses (n = 10) and physicians (n = 8). All the participants worked in the same department (the General Internal Medicine department of a university affiliated hospital). Although the participants agreed on a core meaning of PCP as identifying, understanding and answering patients' needs, they used many dimensions to define PCP. Overall, the participants expressed value for PCP as a philosophy of care, but there was the sense of a hierarchy of patient-centeredness across the professions, in which both social work and nursing regarded themselves as more patient-centered than others. On their side, physicians seemed inclined to accept their lower position in this hierarchy. Gieryn's concept of boundary work is employed to help illuminate the nature of PCP within an interprofessional context.

The spiritual needs model: spirituality assessment in the geriatric hospital setting

Clinicians increasingly agree that it is important to assess patients' spirituality and to incorporate this dimension into the care of elderly persons, in order to enhance patient-centered care. However, models of integrative care that take into account the spiritual dimension of the patient are needed in order to promote a holistic approach to care. This research defines a concept of spirituality in the hospitalized elderly person and develops a model on which to base spirituality assessment in the hospital setting. The article presents in detail the different stages in the conceptualization of The Spiritual Needs Model.

Effective corporate governance : experimental evidence on international auditors'judgments and the contribution of financial accounting education

1 Summary This dissertation deals with two major aspects of corporate governance that grew in importance during the last years: the internal audit function and financial accounting education. In three essays, I contribute to research on these topics which are embedded in the broader corporate governance literature. The first two essays consist of experimental investigations of internal auditors' judgments. They deal with two research issues for which accounting research lacks evidence: The effectiveness of internal controls and the potentially conflicting role of the internal audit function between management and the audit committee. The findings of the first two essays contribute to the literature on internal auditors' judgment and the role of the internal audit function as a major cornerstone of corporate governance. The third essay theoretically examines a broader issue but also relates to the overall research question of this dissertation: What contributes to effective corporate governance? This last essay takes the perspective that the root for quality corporate governance is appropriate financial accounting education. r develop a public interest approach to accounting education that contributes to the literature on adequate accounting education with respect to corporate governance and accounting harmonization. The increasing importance of both the internal audit function and accounting education for corporate governance can be explained by the same recent fundamental changes that still affect accounting research and practice. First, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX, 2002) and the 8th EU Directive (EU, 2006) have led to a bigger role for the internal audit function in corporate governance. Their implications regarding the implementation of audit committees and their oversight over internal controls are extensive. As a consequence, the internal audit function has become increasingly important for corporate governance and serves a new master (i.e. the audit committee) within the company in addition to management. Second, the SOX (2002) and the 8th EU Directive introduced additional internal control mechanisms that are expected to contribute to the reliability of financial information. As a consequence, the internal audit function is expected to contribute to a greater extent to the reliability of financial statements. Therefore, effective internal control mechanisms that strengthen objective judgments and independence become important. This is especially true when external- auditors rely on the work of internal auditors in the context of the International Standard on Auditing (ISA) 610 and the equivalent US Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) 65 (see IFAC, 2009 and AICPA, 1990). Third, the harmonization of international reporting standards is increasingly promoted by means of a principles-based approach. It is the leading approach since a study of the SEC (2003) that was required by the SOX (2002) in section 108(d) was in favor of this approach. As a result, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) commit themselves to the development of compatible accounting standards based on a principles-based approach. Moreover, since the Norwalk Agreement of 2002, the two standard setters have developed exposure drafts for a common conceptual framework that will be the basis for accounting harmonization. The new .framework will be in favor of fair value measurement and accounting for real-world economic phenomena. These changes in terms of standard setting lead to a trend towards more professional judgment in the accounting process. They affect internal and external auditors, accountants, and managers in general. As a consequence, a new competency set for preparers and users of financial statements is required. The basil for this new competency set is adequate accounting education (Schipper, 2003). These three issues which affect corporate governance are the initial point of this dissertation and constitute its motivation. Two broad questions motivated a scientific examination in three essays: 1) What are major aspects to be examined regarding the new role of the internal audit function? 2) How should major changes in standard setting affect financial accounting education? The first question became apparent due to two published literature reviews by Gramling et al. (2004) and Cohen, Krishnamoorthy & Wright (2004). These studies raise various questions for future research that are still relevant and which motivate the first two essays of my dissertation. In the first essay, I focus on the role of the internal audit function as one cornerstone of corporate governance and its potentially conflicting role of serving both management and the audit committee (IIA, 2003). In an experimental study, I provide evidence on the challenges for internal auditors in their role as servant for two masters -the audit committee and management -and how this influences internal auditors' judgment (Gramling et al. 2004; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy & Wright, 2004). I ask if there is an expectation gap between what internal auditors should provide for corporate governance in theory compared to what internal auditors are able to provide in practice. In particular, I focus on the effect of serving two masters on the internal auditor's independence. I argue that independence is hardly achievable if the internal audit function serves two masters with conflicting priorities. The second essay provides evidence on the effectiveness of accountability as an internal control mechanism. In general, internal control mechanisms based on accountability were enforced by the SOX (2002) and the 8th EU Directive. Subsequently, many companies introduced sub-certification processes that should contribute to an objective judgment process. Thus, these mechanisms are important to strengthen the reliability of financial statements. Based on a need for evidence on the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms (Brennan & Solomon, 2008; Gramling et al. 2004; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy & Wright, 2004; Solomon & Trotman, 2003), I designed an experiment to examine the joint effect of accountability and obedience pressure in an internal audit setting. I argue that obedience pressure potentially can lead to a negative influence on accountants' objectivity (e.g. DeZoort & Lord, 1997) whereas accountability can mitigate this negative effect. My second main research question - How should major changes in standard setting affect financial accounting education? - is investigated in the third essay. It is motivated by the observation during my PhD that many conferences deal with the topic of accounting education but very little is published about what needs to be done. Moreover, the Endings in the first two essays of this thesis and their literature review suggest that financial accounting education can contribute significantly to quality corporate governance as argued elsewhere (Schipper, 2003; Boyce, 2004; Ghoshal, 2005). In the third essay of this thesis, I therefore focus on approaches to financial accounting education that account for the changes in standard setting and also contribute to corporate governance and accounting harmonization. I argue that the competency set that is required in practice changes due to major changes in standard setting. As the major contribution of the third article, I develop a public interest approach for financial accounting education. The major findings of this dissertation can be summarized as follows. The first essay provides evidence to an important research question raised by Gramling et al. (2004, p. 240): "If the audit committee and management have different visions for the corporate governance role of the IAF, which vision will dominate?" According to the results of the first essay, internal auditors do follow the priorities of either management or the audit committee based on the guidance provided by the Chief Audit executive. The study's results question whether the independence of the internal audit function is actually achievable. My findings contribute to research on internal auditors' judgment and the internal audit function's independence in the broader frame of corporate governance. The results are also important for practice because independence is a major justification for a positive contribution of the internal audit function to corporate governance. The major findings of the second essay indicate that the duty to sign work results - a means of holding people accountable -mitigates the negative effect of obedience pressure on reliability. Hence, I found evidence that control .mechanisms relying on certifications may enhance the reliability of financial information. These findings contribute to the literature on the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms. They are also important in the light of sub-certification processes that resulted from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the 8th EU Directive. The third essay contributes to the literature by developing a measurement framework that accounts for the consequences of major trends in standard setting. Moreovér, it shows how these trends affect the required .competency set of people dealing with accounting issues. Based on this work, my main contribution is the development of a public interest approach for the design of adequate financial accounting curricula. 2 Serving two masters: Experimental evidence on the independence of internal auditors Abstract Twenty nine internal auditors participated in a study that examines the independence of internal auditors in their potentially competing roles of serving two masters: the audit committee and management. Our main hypothesis suggests that internal auditors' independence is not achievable in an institutional setting in which internal auditors are accountable to two different parties with potentially differing priorities. We test our hypothesis in an experiment in which the treatment consisted of two different instructions of the Chief audit executive; one stressing the priority of management (cost reduction) and one stressing the priority of the audit committee (effectiveness). Internal auditors had to evaluate internal controls and their inherent costs of different processes which varied in their degree of task complexity. Our main results indicate that internal auditors' evaluation of the processes is significantly different when task complexity is high. Our findings suggest that internal auditors do follow the priorities of either management or the audit committee depending on the instructions of a superior internal auditor. The study's results question whether the independence of the internal audit function is actually achievable. With our findings, we contribute to research on internal auditors' judgment and the internal audit function's independence in the frame of corporate governance.

Does the working environment influence health care professionals' values, meaning in life and religiousness? Palliative care units compared with maternity wards.

CONTEXT: Increased altruism, self-transcendence, and quests for meaning in life (MiL) have been found in palliative care (PC) patients and their families who experience the finiteness of life. Similar changes were observed in healthy subjects who were experimentally confronted with their mortality. OBJECTIVES: The study investigated how daily experiences of the transitoriness of life influence PC health care professionals' (HCPs) values, MiL, and religiousness. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, the Schwartz Value Survey, the Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation, and the Idler Index of Religiosity were used to investigate personal values, MiL, and private religiousness. HCPs working in PC (confronted with death) were compared with a control group of HCPs working at maternity wards (MWs) using multivariate models. Differences were considered to be statistically significant at P < 0.05. RESULTS: Seventy PC- and 70 MW-HCPs took part in the study (response rate 74.0%). No differences between the groups were found in overall MiL satisfaction scores. PC-HCPs were significantly more religious than MW-HCPs; they listed spirituality and nature experience more often as areas in which they experience MiL. Furthermore, hedonism was more important for PC-HCPs, and they had higher scores in openness-to-change values (stimulation and self-direction). MW-HCPs were more likely to list family as a MiL area. They assigned more importance to health and scored higher in conservation values (conformity and security). Duration of professional experience did not influence these results. CONCLUSION: Basic differences in values, MiL, and religiousness between PC-HCPs and MW-HCPs might have influenced the choice of working environment because no effect of job duration was observed. Longitudinal research is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Innovatiivisen tietopalvelun markkinointi "case Liikekirjuri"

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli kehittää SuomenKirjurituotteen tuottaman sähköisessä muodossa olevan Liikekirjuri-tietopalvelun markkinointia. Käyttäjät ovat taloushallinnon ammattilaisia, pääasiassa tilitoimistoja. Tavoitteeseen pyrittiin selvitämällä asiakasyrityksille tärkeimpiä tuotteen ominaisuuksia sekä niitä tekijöitä, jotka ovat vaikuttaneet nykyisten asiakkaiden hankintapäätökseen. Lisäksi pyrittiin selvittämään, miten tehokkaana asiakkaat ovat kokeneet markkinointiviestinnän. On myös haluttu selvittää,kuinka tyytyväisiä asiakkaat ovat palveluun ja sen ominaisuuksiin. Tutkielma koostuu teoria- ja empiriaosuuksista. Teoriaosassa esitellään innovaation diffuusiota, informaatiopalveluiden taloustiedettä sekä yritysmarkkinointia. Empiirisen osuuden muodostaa kvantitatiivinen tutkimus, joka suoritettiin kirjekyselynä. Tutkimuksen perusteella päädyttiin seuraaviin tuloksiin ja suosituksiin: Myyntityön tulisi olla aktiivisempaa. Markkinoinnissa on hyväkorostaa suhteelliseen hyötyyn lukeutuvia ominaisuuksia. Referenssien käyttöä tulisi tehostaa. Havaittiin myös, että nykyiset asiakkaat ovat olleet erittäin tyytyväisiä ohjelmistoon.

Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

Procurement in Project Implementation

Tutkimus keskittyy hankintatoimen kehittämiseen osana laitosprojektien toteutusta. Työ pohjautuu empiiriseltä taustaltaan Pöyry Oyj:n projektiliiketoimintaan ja työn tarkastelunäkökulmaksi onvalittu projektihallinnosta vastaavan yrityksen näkökulma. Tutkimus on hyvin käytännönläheinen ¿ se lähtee hankinnan ja sen seurannan ongelmista ja pyrkii tarjoamaan niihin uudenlaisia ratkaisuja. Pohjimmiltaan tutkimus kuuluu teollisuustalouden piiriin, vaikka tietojärjestelmätieteellä on vahva tukirooli. Työn tavoitteet ja tulokset liittyvät teollisuustaloudelle ominaisesti yrityksen toiminnan kehittämiseen, käytetyt välineet ja ratkaisut puolestaan hyödyntävät tietojärjestelmätieteen antamia mahdollisuuksia. Tutkimuksessa on käytetty konstruktiivista tutkimusotetta, jonka mukaisesti on luotu innovatiivisia konstruktioita ratkaisemaan aitoja reaalimaailman ongelmia ja tätä kautta tuotettu kontribuutioita teollisuustaloudelle. Tavoitteena oli järjestää hankintatoimi ja sen seuranta suurissa laitosprojekteissa tehokkaammin. Tätä varten uudistettiin ensin projektihallinnon ja hankintatoimen toimintaohjeet vastaamaan paremmin nykyajan vaatimuksia. Toimintaohjeiden perusteella ryhdyttiin toteuttamaan hankintaohjelmistoa, joka pystyisi kattamaan kaikki toimintaohjeissa kuvatut piirteet. Lopulta hankintaohjelmisto toi mukanaan uusia piirteitä projektihallintoon ja hankintatoimeen ja nämä sisällytettiin toimintaohjeisiin. Tähän kehitystyöhön ryhdyttiin, jotta laitosprojektien projektihallinto ja hankintatoimi toimisivat paremmin, eli pienemmin kustannuksin tuottaen projekteissa tarvittavat tulokset nopeammin, tarkemmin ja laadukkaammin. Tutkimuksella on kolmenlaisia tuloksia: hankintatoimen parannetut metodit, hankintaohjelmiston pohjana olevat toiminta- ja laskentamallit sekä implementaationa hankintasovellus. Uudistetut projekti- ja hankintaohjeet kuvaavat hankintatoiminnan parannettuja metodeja. Hankintaohjelmistoasuunnitellessa ja kehitettäessä tehdyt kuvaukset sisältävät uusia malleja niin hankintaprosessille kuin hankinnan seuraamiseksi suurissa laitosprojekteissa. Itse ohjelmisto on tuloksena implementaatio, joka perustuu parannettuihin hankintametodeihin ja uusiin toiminta- ja laskentamalleihin. Uudistetut projekti- ja hankintaohjeet ovat olleet käytössä Pöyry Oyj:ssä vuodesta 1991. Vuosien varrella nämä toimintaohjeet ovat auttaneet ja tukeneet satojen laitosprojektientoteutusta ja ylläpitäneet Pöyry Oyj:n kilpailukykyä kansainvälisenä projektitalona. Hankintasovellus puolestaan on ollut käytössä useissa projekteissa ja sen on havaittu pienentävän hankintatoimen suoria työkustannuksia laitosprojekteissa. Sovelluksen katsotaan myös tuovan epäsuoria kustannussäästöjä parempien hankintapäätösten muodossa, mutta näiden säästöjen suuruutta ei pystytä luotettavasti arvioimaan.

Emergency hospital services utilization in Lleida (Spain): a cross-sectional study of immigrant and Spanish-born populations

Background: The use of emergency hospital services (EHS) has increased steadily in Spain in the last decade while the number of immigrants has increased dramatically. Studies show that immigrants use EHS differently than native-born individuals, and this work investigates demographics, diagnoses and utilization rates of EHS in Lleida (Spain). Methods: Cross-sectional study of all the 96,916 EHS visits by patients 15 to 64 years old, attended during the years 2004 and 2005 in a public teaching hospital. Demographic data, diagnoses of the EHS visits, frequency of hospital admissions, mortality and diagnoses at hospital discharge were obtained. Utilization rates were estimated by group of origin. Poisson regression was used to estimate the rate ratios of being visited in the EHS with respect to the Spanish-born population. Results: Immigrants from low-income countries use EHS services more than the Spanish-born population. Differences in utilization patterns are particularly marked for Maghrebi men and women and sub-Saharan women. Immigrant males are at lower risk of being admitted to the hospital, as compared with Spanish-born males. On the other hand, immigrant women are at higher risk of being admitted. After excluding the visits with gynecologic and obstetric diagnoses, women from sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb are still at a higher risk of being admitted than their Spanish-born counterparts. Conclusion: In Lleida (Spain), immigrants use more EHS than the Spanish born population. Future research should indicate whether the same pattern is found in other areas of Spain and whether EHS use is attributable to health needs, barriers to access to the primary care services or similarities in the way immigrants access health care in their countries of origin.

Patterns of practice of regional nodal irradiation in breast cancer: results of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) NOdal Radiotherapy (NORA) survey.

BACKGROUND: Predicting outcome of breast cancer (BC) patients based on sentinel lymph node (SLN) status without axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is an area of uncertainty. It influences the decision-making for regional nodal irradiation (RNI). The aim of the NORA (NOdal RAdiotherapy) survey was to examine the patterns of RNI. METHODS: A web-questionnaire, including several clinical scenarios, was distributed to 88 EORTC-affiliated centers. Responses were received between July 2013 and January 2014. RESULTS: A total of 84 responses were analyzed. While three-dimensional (3D) radiotherapy (RT) planning is carried out in 81 (96%) centers, nodal areas are delineated in only 51 (61%) centers. Only 14 (17%) centers routinely link internal mammary chain (IMC) and supraclavicular node (SCN) RT indications. In patients undergoing total mastectomy (TM) with ALND, SCN-RT is recommend by 5 (6%), 53 (63%) and 51 (61%) centers for patients with pN0(i+), pN(mi) and pN1, respectively. Extra-capsular extension (ECE) is the main factor influencing decision-making RNI after breast conserving surgery (BCS) and TM. After primary systemic therapy (PST), 49 (58%) centers take into account nodal fibrotic changes in ypN0 patients for RNI indications. In ypN0 patients with inner/central tumors, 23 (27%) centers indicate SCN-RT and IMC-RT. In ypN1 patients, SCN-RT is delivered by less than half of the centers in patients with ypN(i+) and ypN(mi). Twenty-one (25%) of the centers recommend ALN-RT in patients with ypN(mi) or 1-2N+ after ALND. Seventy-five (90%) centers state that age is not considered a limiting factor for RNI. CONCLUSION: The NORA survey is unique in evaluating the impact of SLNB/ALND status on adjuvant RNI decision-making and volumes after BCS/TM with or without PST. ALN-RT is often indicated in pN1 patients, particularly in the case of ECE. Besides the ongoing NSABP-B51/RTOG and ALLIANCE trials, NORA could help to design future specific RNI trials in the SLNB era without ALND in patients receiving or not PST.

The international multidisciplinary consensus conference on multimodality monitoring in neurocritical care: evidentiary tables : a statement for healthcare professionals from the neurocritical care society and the European society of intensive care medicine.

A variety of technologies have been developed to assist decision-making during the management of patients with acute brain injury who require intensive care. A large body of research has been generated describing these various technologies. The Neurocritical Care Society (NCS) in collaboration with the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM), the Society for Critical Care Medicine (SCCM), and the Latin America Brain Injury Consortium (LABIC) organized an international, multidisciplinary consensus conference to perform a systematic review of the published literature to help develop evidence-based practice recommendations on bedside physiologic monitoring. This supplement contains a Consensus Summary Statement with recommendations and individual topic reviews on physiologic processes important in the care of acute brain injury. In this article we provide the evidentiary tables for select topics including systemic hemodynamics, intracranial pressure, brain and systemic oxygenation, EEG, brain metabolism, biomarkers, processes of care and monitoring in emerging economies to provide the clinician ready access to evidence that supports recommendations about neuromonitoring.

The international multidisciplinary consensus conference on multimodality monitoring in neurocritical care: a list of recommendations and additional conclusions : a statement for healthcare professionals from the neurocritical care society and the European society of intensive care medicine.

Careful patient monitoring using a variety of techniques including clinical and laboratory evaluation, bedside physiological monitoring with continuous or non-continuous techniques and imaging is fundamental to the care of patients who require neurocritical care. How best to perform and use bedside monitoring is still being elucidated. To create a basic platform for care and a foundation for further research the Neurocritical Care Society in collaboration with the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, the Society for Critical Care Medicine and the Latin America Brain Injury Consortium organized an international, multidisciplinary consensus conference to develop recommendations about physiologic bedside monitoring. This supplement contains a Consensus Summary Statement with recommendations and individual topic reviews as a background to the recommendations. In this article, we highlight the recommendations and provide additional conclusions as an aid to the reader and to facilitate bedside care.

Asiantuntijapalvelujen markkinoinnin tehostaminen tuotteistamisen avulla

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää asiantuntijapalvelujen tuotteistamisen mahdollisuuksia näiden palvelujen markkinoinnin tehostamisessa. Kirjallisuuden avulla selvitettiin ensin asiantuntijapalvelujen ominaispiirteet ja palvelujen tuotteistamisprosessi sekä siihen liittyvä palvelutuotteen rakentaminen. Selvitystyön pohjalta rakennettiin palvelujen asiakaslähtöinen tuotteistamisprosessi. Työn empiiristä osaa varten kerättiin tutkimusaineisto haastattelemalla sekä yrityksen asiakkaita että omia asiantuntijoita. Tutkimusaineiston analysoinnin perusteella segmentoitiin asiantuntijapalveluja ostavat asiakkaat. Asiantuntijapalvelujen ostamista ovat rajoittaneet sekä palvelujen epäonnistunut asemointi asiakkaiden keskuudessa että ilman markkinoinnillisia tavoitteita suoritettu tuotteistamisprosessi. Toimenpide-ehdotuksena esitetään asiantuntijapalvelujen uudelleenasemointia siten, että palvelujen ominaispiirteiden vaikutukset asiakkaiden mielikuvaan palvelutuotteista huomioidaan. Lisäksi asiantuntijapalvelujen tuotteistamista on kussakin asiakassegmentissä jatkettava tutkimuksessa selvitettyjen asiakastarpeiden pohjalta. Asiantuntijapalvelujen tuotteistamisessa on kussakin segmentissä omat tavoitteensa, jotka on huomioitava, jotta tuotteistamistoimenpiteillä olisi asiantuntijapalvelujen markkinointia tehostava vaikutus.

Fingerprint identification: advances since the 2009 National Research Council report

"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Análisis de la motivación al cambio en sujetos que han realizado un programa formativo en violencia doméstica

Esta investigación consiste en la evaluación de la motivación al cambio en un grupo de 116 agresores que realizan un programa formativo en materia de violencia doméstica (VIDO) como medida penal alternativa. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es determinar en qué grado se produce un cambio motivacional como consecuencia de la participación en el programa formativo. Con este propósito, se evalúa el riesgo de los individuos (mediante la evaluación de riesgo realizada por los delegados judiciales), sus necesidades criminògenas (mediante datos sociodemográficos y de carrera criminal), las características clínicas de personalidad medidas con el Inventario de evaluación de la Personalidad (PAI) y su motivación para el cambio (a través de la Escala de Estadios de cambio). Los resultados indican que los cambios en el nivel de motivación de los sujetos no se deben a los efectos del programa formativo. Sin embargo, se encuentran cambios significativos cuando la motivación se analiza en relación a las características del PAI. Estos resultados sugieren la existencia de diferentes perfiles de maltratadores de pareja que se deben tener en cuenta a la hora de planificar el programa formativo para conseguir la máxima eficacia de las intervenciones y el cambio terapéutico de los individuos.