869 resultados para Time-varying bond risk premia


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Real-time (RT)-PCR increases diagnostic yield for bacterial meningitis and is ideal for incorporation into routine surveillance in a developing country. We validated a multiplex RT-PCR assay for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae in Brazil. Risk factors for being culture-negative, RT-PCR positive were determined. The sensitivity of RT-PCR in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was 100% (95% confidence limits, 96.0%-100%) for N. meningitidis, 97.8% (85.5%-99.9%) for S. pneumoniae, and 66.7% (9.4%-99.2%) for H. influenzae. Specificity ranged from 98.9% to 100%. Addition of RT-PCR to routine microbiologic methods increased the yield for detection of S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis, and H. influenzae cases by 52%, 85%, and 20%, respectively. The main risk factor for being culture negative and RT-PCR positive was presence of antibiotic in CSF (odds ratio 12.2, 95% CI 5.9-25.0). RT-PCR using CSF was highly sensitive and specific and substantially added to measures of meningitis disease burden when incorporated into routine public health surveillance in Brazil.

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AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

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Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The adaptive process in motor learning was examined in terms of effects of varying amounts of constant practice performed before random practice. Participants pressed five response keys sequentially, the last one coincident with the lighting of a final visual stimulus provided by a complex coincident timing apparatus. Different visual stimulus speeds were used during the random practice. 33 children (M age=11.6 yr.) were randomly assigned to one of three experimental groups: constant-random, constant-random 33%, and constant-random 66%. The constant-random group practiced constantly until they reached a criterion of performance stabilization three consecutive trials within 50 msec. of error. The other two groups had additional constant practice of 33 and 66%, respectively, of the number of trials needed to achieve the stabilization criterion. All three groups performed 36 trials under random practice; in the adaptation phase, they practiced at a different visual stimulus speed adopted in the stabilization phase. Global performance measures were absolute, constant, and variable errors, and movement pattern was analyzed by relative timing and overall movement time. There was no group difference in relation to global performance measures and overall movement time. However, differences between the groups were observed on movement pattern, since constant-random 66% group changed its relative timing performance in the adaptation phase.

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Polymer-modified mortar is widely used to set ceramic tiles used as external finishing for high rise buildings in countries such as Brazil, Israel, Singapore and Portugal, mainly because it shows better bond strength and flexibility as compared to the traditional ones. Despite this, the results in the literature already published concerning the long-term performance of those composite mortars are is not conclusive. This paper, based on a laboratory program, compared the performance over time of four commercial polymer-modified adhesive mortars exposed to a typical Brazilian outdoor aging environment and to an indoor environment in terms of mortar flexibility and the bond strength to porcelain tiles. The results show that under laboratory condition, the mortars are more flexible and have higher bond strength than under external condition, and that there is an important correlation between the transversal deformability and the bond strength. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper a bond graph methodology is used to model incompressible fluid flows with viscous and thermal effects. The distinctive characteristic of these flows is the role of pressure, which does not behave as a state variable but as a function that must act in such a way that the resulting velocity field has divergence zero. Velocity and entropy per unit volume are used as independent variables for a single-phase, single-component flow. Time-dependent nodal values and interpolation functions are introduced to represent the flow field, from which nodal vectors of velocity and entropy are defined as state variables. The system for momentum and continuity equations is coincident with the one obtained by using the Galerkin method for the weak formulation of the problem in finite elements. The integral incompressibility constraint is derived based on the integral conservation of mechanical energy. The weak formulation for thermal energy equation is modeled with true bond graph elements in terms of nodal vectors of temperature and entropy rates, resulting a Petrov-Galerkin method. The resulting bond graph shows the coupling between mechanical and thermal energy domains through the viscous dissipation term. All kind of boundary conditions are handled consistently and can be represented as generalized effort or flow sources. A procedure for causality assignment is derived for the resulting graph, satisfying the Second principle of Thermodynamics. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: The aim of this study was to identify novel candidate biomarker proteins differentially expressed in the plasma of patients with early stage acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using SELDI-TOF-MS as a high throughput screening technology. Methods: Ten individuals with recent acute ischemic-type chest pain (< 12 h duration) and ST-segment elevation AMI (1STEMI) and after a second AMI (2STEMI) were selected. Blood samples were drawn at six times after STEMI diagnosis. The first stage (T(0)) was in Emergency Unit before receiving any medication, the second was just after primary angioplasty (T(2)), and the next four stages occurred at 12 h intervals after T(0). Individuals (n = 7) with similar risk factors for cardiovascular disease and normal ergometric test were selected as a control group (CG). Plasma proteomic profiling analysis was performed using the top-down (i.e. intact proteins) SELDI-TOF-MS, after processing in a Multiple Affinity Removal Spin Cartridge System (Agilent). Results: Compared with the CG, the 1STEMI group exhibited 510 differentially expressed protein peaks in the first 48 h after the AMI (p < 0.05). The 2STEMI group, had similar to 85% fewer differently expressed protein peaks than those without previous history of AMI (76, p < 0.05). Among the 16 differentially-regulated protein peaks common to both STEMI cohorts (compared with the CG at T(0)), 6 peaks were persistently down-regulated at more than one time-stage, and also were inversed correlated with serum protein markers (cTnI, CK and CKMB) during 48 h-period after IAM. Conclusions: Proteomic analysis by SELDI-TOF-MS technology combined with bioinformatics tools demonstrated differential expression during a 48 h time course suggests a potential role of some of these proteins as biomarkers for the very early stages of AMI, as well as for monitoring early cardiac ischemic recovery. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Previous work demonstrated that a mixture of NH(4)Cl and KNO(3) as nitrogen source was beneficial to fed-batch Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis cultivation, in terms of either lower costs or higher cell concentration. On the basis of those results, this study focused on the use of a cheaper nitrogen source mixture, namely (NH(4))(2)SO(4) plus NaNO(3), varying the ammonium feeding time (T = 7-15 days), either controlling the pH by CO(2) addition or not. A. platensis was cultivated in mini-tanks at 30 degrees C, 156 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1), and starting cell concentration of 400 mg L(-1), on a modified Schlosser medium. T = 13 days under pH control were selected as optimum conditions, ensuring the best results in terms of biomass production (maximum cell concentration of 2911 mg L(-1), cell productivity of 179 mg L(-1) d(-1) and specific growth rate of 0.77 d(-1)) and satisfactory protein and lipid contents (around 30% each). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The three possible disulfide bonded isomers of alpha-conotoxin GI have been selectively synthesised and their structures determined by H-1 NMR spectroscopy. alpha-Conotoxin GI derives from the venom of Conus geographus and is a useful neuropharmacological tool as it selectively binds to the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR), a ligand-gated ion channel involved in nerve signal transmission. The peptide has the sequence ECCNPACGRHYSC-NH2, and the three disulfide bonded isomers are referred to as GI(2-7;3-13), GI(2-13;3-7) and GI(2-3;7-13). The NMR structure for the native isomer GI(2-7;3-13) is of excellent quality, with a backbone pairwise RMSD of 0.16 Angstrom for a family of 35 structures, and comprises primarily a distorted 3(10),, helix between residues 5 to 11. The two non-native isomers exhibit multiple conformers in solution, with the major populated forms being different in structure both from each other and from the native form. Structure-activity relationships for the native GI(2-7;3-13) as well as the role of the disulfide bonds on folding and stability of the three isomers are examined. It is concluded that the disulfide bonds in alpha-conotoxin GI play a crucial part in determining both the structure and stability of the peptide. A trend for increased conformational heterogeneity was observed in the order of GI(2-7;3-13) < GI(2-13;3-7) < GI(2-3;7-13). It was found that the peptide bond joining Cys2 to Cys3 in GI(2-3;7-13) is predominantly trans, rather than cis as theoretically predicted. These structural data are used to interpret the varying nAChR binding of the non-native forms. A model for the binding of native GI(2-7;3-13) to the mammalian nAChR is proposed, with an alpha-subunit binding face made up of Cys2, Asn4, Pro5, Ala6 and Cys7 and a selectivity face, comprised of Arg9 and His10. These two faces orient the molecule between the alpha and delta subunits of the receptor. The structure of the CCNPAC sequence of the native GI(2-7;3-13) is compared to the structure of the identical sequence from the toxic domain of heat-stable enterotoxins, which forms part of the receptor binding region of the enterotoxins, but which has a different disulfide connectivity. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited.

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Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

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We have performed MRI examinations to determine the water diffusion tensor in the brain of six patients who were admitted to the hospital within 12 h after the onset of cerebral ischemic symptoms. The examinations have been carried out immediately after admission, and thereafter at varying intervals up to 90 days post admission. Maps of the trace of the diffusion tensor, the fractional anisotropy and the lattice index, as well as maps of cerebral blood perfusion parameters, were generated to quantitatively assess the character of the water diffusion tensor in the infarcted area. In patients with significant perfusion deficits and substantial lesion volume changes, four of six cases, our measurements show a monotonic and significant decrease in the diffusion anisotropy within the ischemic lesion as a function of time. We propose that retrospective analysis of this quantity, in combination with brain tissue segmentation and cerebral perfusion maps, may be used in future studies to assess the severity of the ischemic event. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

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The aim of the Brisbane Psychosis Study was to examine a range of candidate genetic and nongenetic risk factors in a large, representative sample of patients with psychosis and well controls. The patients (n=310) were drawn from a census conducted as part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. An age and sex-matched well control group (n = 303) was drawn from the same catchment area. Candidate risk factors assessed included migrant status of proband and proband's parents, occupation of father at time of proband's birth, place of birth and place of residence during the first 5 years of life (urbanicity), self-reported pregnancy and birth complications, season of birth and family history. The main analyses were group (cases versus controls) comparisons, with planned subgroup analyses (1) group comparisons for Australian-born subjects only, (2) within-patient comparisons of affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Of the individuals with psychosis, 68% had DSMIII-R schizophrenia. In the main analyses, there were no significant group differences on season of birth, place of birth, place of residency in the first 5 years, occupation of fathers at time of birth or pregnancy and birth complications. Patients had significantly more family members with schizophrenia. Significantly fewer of the patients were migrants or offspring of migrants compared to the controls. When only Australianborn subjects were assessed (n=457), the findings were essentially unchanged apart from a significant excess of cases born in rural sites (chi-square=9.54, df3, p=0.02). There were no significant differences in the risk factors for the comparison involving affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Potential explanations for the inverse urban-rural risk gradient are reviewed. The Stanley Foundation supported this project

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Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

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Background. International research indicates that blue-collar employees typically exhibit lower rates of leisure-time physical activity. While lack of time and work demands are commonly reported barriers to activity, the extent to which time-at-work mediates the relationship between occupation and leisure-time physical activity is unclear. This study investigated the association between occupation, time spent in paid employment, and participation in leisure-time physical activity. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 1995 Australian Health Survey, focusing on employed persons ages 18-64 years (n = 24,454), Occupation was coded as per the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations and collapsed into three categories (professional, white-collar, blue-collar). Hours worked was categorized into eight levels, ranging from 1-14 to more than 50 h per week. Participation in leisure-time physical activity was categorized as either insufficient or sufficient for health, consistent with recommended levels of energy expenditure (1600 METS-min/fortnight). The relationship between occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity was examined using logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately for male and female, and the results are presented as a series of models that successively adjust for a range of potential covariates: age, living arrangement, smoking status, body mass index, and self-reported health. Results. Individuals in blue-collar occupations were approximately 50% more likely to be classified as insufficiently active. This occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity was not explained by hours worked. There was a suggested relationship between hours worked and leisure-time physical activity; however, this differed between men and women, and was difficult to interpret. Conclusions. Occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity cannot be explained by hours worked. Therefore, reports that work constitutes a barrier to participation should be explored further. Identification of the factors contributing to occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity will add to our understanding of why population subgroups differ in their health risk profiles, and assist in the development of health promotion strategies to reduce rates of sedentariness and health inequalities. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.