Optimization of Discrete-Time, Stochastic Systems

* This research was supported by a grant from the Greek Ministry of Industry and Technology.

The Front National:from systematic opposition to systemic integration?

For most of its existence, the Front National (FN) fitted the classic definition of the anti-system party, opposing the founding values, institutions and elites of the Fifth Republic. Now, under Marine Le Pen's leadership, it has embarked on a strategy to integrate to the regime it once defied. Does this strategy of normalisation bear scrutiny? Using a framework drawn from Giovanni Sartori and Robert Michels, this article asks whether the FN is a one-time anti-system party that is becoming mainstream, and also whether these simple oppositional categories are adequate for understanding ideological and policy evolution in the FN's case. Through an analysis of continuity and change in FN strategy and programmes, the article shows a party torn between anti-system differentiation and institutional adaptation. It may claim to have cast out its demons but has not undertaken the necessary moderation of its programme to substantiate that claim. The FN today is on no linear path of deradicalisation but exhibits a combination of consistent, diminished and increasing radicalism across different policy areas. Despite an upward dynamic and a hugely favourable context, it remains almost entirely excluded from power and far from the breakthrough required to become a party of government.

Public policy and electrical-grid sector innovation

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the manner in which technological innovation in the European electrical-grid sector has developed by focusing, in particular, on the effect of public policy on innovation. To achieve this aim, this paper highlights how technological innovation and development progressed from the 1960s to the 1980s, and contrasts this period with the deregulated/privatization environment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a series of in-depth multiple company case studies of grid companies, some of their suppliers and other actors in their broader business network. Empirical data were collected through 55 interviews. Findings – The authors find that a phase of mutual collaboration was encouraged in the first period, which led to strong technological innovation with a focus on product quality and the development of functionality. Buyers played a pivotal role in the development of products and posed technical requirements. In contrast, the current role of the buyer has transformed principally into one of evaluating competing bids for specific projects. Today, buyers face increasing pressure to substantially lower CO2 emissions and transform the energy grid system. These goals are difficult to achieve without a new way of thinking about innovation. Research limitations/implications – Models to achieve innovation must not only focus on individual research projects; instead, the innovation should be factored into normal business dealings in the supply chain. Practical implications – We propose that policymakers and regulators need to: accommodate for innovation and address the collaborative elements of innovation when developing policies and regulations. Furthermore, regulators have the option of either developing a strategic vision for the electrical-grid network or incorporating sustainability into the evaluation of electrical grids and, thus, consumers’ willingness to pay. Originality/value – This paper makes a distinctive contribution in the area of innovation for electrical grids. Our paper shows how innovation and the development of new technology for electrical grids changed over time. Furthermore, this paper describes the energy sector in terms of a business network comprising the different actors involved in innovation and development and, thus, their role in the energy supply chain.

On realizing the principles of Gaudium et spes in a post-communist country: Searching for christian entrepreneurs and roots of individuals in Hungary at the time of globalization

Due to the communist regime in Hungary the values and principles of the Second Vatican Counsil could hardly achieve their goal in the region and the situation is almost the same even today. This paper examines two levels of society where the thoughts of Gaudium et spes might have appeared: we have explored that there are Christian companies existing about 15 years since the political transition in 1990 and we made a research among individuals in rural environment, how could they preserve their human wholeness described in GS, in other words, how could they keep their social, cultural, natural, religiuos and local roots amongst the consumer society that has been developped in Hungary at the time of capitalism. Regarding the Christian companies our research could produce a positive result: we have explored that although the Christian companies survayed hardly know the Church’s social doctrine, they live and operate according to it. At the same time in the realm of individuals we cannot tell good news of this kind. Most of the persons interviewed have already lost or are near to loose their roots, that is their human wholeness. Our final conclusion is that our hope for preserving even strenghtening the values of GS in the Hungarian society is in the communities, be it work communities, as John Paul II. mentioned in his encyclical Sollicitudo rei Socialis. The paper presents the details and conclusions of our researches.

The Future of EU Cohesion Policy. Endogenous Development – Added Value of Intervention – Regulatory Frameworks

The successful operation of the regional development – or cohesion – policy of the European Union has a strategic importance from the point of view of the whole integration process. Strengthening economic, social and territorial cohesion and decreasing disparities between member states and regions are not only one of the main priorities of the integration, but at the same time these are justified expectations of the people living in the member states of the union. The cohesion transfers should be spent on those factors which have the biggest contribution to the improvement of development prospects and competitiveness in the given regions. Theories on regional development have controversial conclusions about the long-term formation of development disparities. However, it has become evident that successful development policies are based on endogenous factors, innovation and well-functioning institutions. After examining theoretical considerations and regional disparities the study analyses the impacts of EU regional policy and evaluates the main elements of the proposed regulatory frameworks for the period 2014-2020.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.

Magyar alkalmazkodás az Európai Unió foglalkoztatás és szociálpolitikájához – tanulságok (The experiences from the Hungarian adaption to the common employment and social policy of the European Union)

A tanulmányban áttekintjük az európai foglalkoztatás- és szociálpolitika kialakulását és történetét, valamint a területen alkalmazott speciális koordinációs módszert. Ezt követően a csatlakozási tárgyalások elemzésével bemutatjuk a hazai politika helyzetét a csatlakozás időpontjában. Az elmúlt időszak foglalkoztatási adatai segítségével megvizsgáljuk a hazai és európai foglalkoztatás- és szociálpolitikai intézkedések hatásait. A cikk zárásaként a magyar EU-elnökség prioritásait és az aktuális közösségi terveket vesszük szemügyre. ______ The article gives a review on the history of the common employment and social policy in the European Union, with special attention to the coordination methods used in the field. The article also analyses the accession negotiations and the domestic policy situation at that time of Hungary's accession to the EU. With the data of recent years, the effects of the Hungarian and common EU measures are also examined. Finally, the priorities of the Hungarian Presidency of the European Council along with the current common policy plans are also demonstrated.

Spanyolország Latin-Amerika-politikája = The Latin American Policy of Spain

Jelen tanulmány a spanyol–latin-amerikai kapcsolatok elmúlt két évtizedbeli alakulásának vázlatát adja, rámutatva a legfőbb mérföldkövekre, fordulópontokra és kihívásokra. A spanyol–latin-amerikai viszony sajátossága, hogy többszintű rendszerbe ágyazódik: Spanyolország egyes latin-amerikai országokhoz fűződő bilaterális viszonya, az ibér-amerikai csúcstalálkozók rendszere, az Európai Unió és Latin-Amerika biregionális stratégiai szövetsége, illetve az Unió egyes latin-amerikai integrációs tömörülésekhez (pl. Mercosur, Andok Közösség, Közép-amerikai Közös Piac stb.) és országokhoz fűződő kapcsolatai adják a legfontosabb tengelyeket; ezekből bontható ki Spanyolország és Latin-Amerika kapcsolatrendszere. Vagyis a fentebb vázolt rendszer miatt – kiegészülve az említett szereplők Egyesült Államokhoz fűződő viszonyával – önmagukban nehezen értelmezhetőek Spanyolország és volt amerikai gyarmatainak kapcsolatai, mivel szervesen a biregionális, interregionális és bilaterális kapcsolatok egészébe ágyazódnak. _____ The paper surveys the main trends of Spanish Latin America policy from the early 1990s up to the present. As typical of international relations in the 21st century, Spanish–Latin American relations are complex and involve multiple actors. Apart from Spain, the European Union, Latin American states as well as continental subregions and regional country groups are autonomous actors in this system of relations, where the United States is an important external actor. During the last twenty years, Spanish governments have prioritized relations with Latin America, which have seen considerable advances. At the same time, the limits to enhancing Spanish–Latin American relations, constraining factors aff ecting political and economic cooperation also exist and must be taken into consideration during the analysis of the issue.

Technology Policy, R&D, and Innovation in China Traditional Approaches, and New Challenges

China’s long term development path has always been strongly infl uenced by its own ways of innovation and invention. Though around one thousand years ago China had been undoubtedly the most advanced country in the world, by the 17th century Europe had surpassed it. And when the PRC was founded in 1949, it was only a poor, severely underdeveloped country without adequate, modern technologies. In the last three decades, however, the country has achieved remarkable success in economic terms: China has become the second largest economy in the world, and its new economic, fi nancial and trading power has made it clear that the dominance of the USA and Europe has passed. At the same time China is still lagging behind technologically. Though there are huge efforts to narrow the gap, it is extremely diffi cult to build up a new technological and innovation system without deep, organic foundations. China, however, has rich experience of innovations from the past, and the question is whether it is possible to use them to formulate a new technology policy. In this paper I will try to examine China’s technology system, its functioning and its prospects, while comparing it with the traditional ways of innovations in China. I would like to show that current technology policy is, at least partly, based upon traditional values, and that high tech research, R&D, and state of the art innovations can be reconcilable with several thousand-year-old approaches.

Miként befolyásolják a stratégiai gondolkodásmódok a vállalat innovativitását? (How can strategic mindsets influence innovative capability of the firm?)

A stratégiai gondolkodásmód a szervezetben működő egyének olyan kognitív sémáinak összessége, melyek alapjaiban befolyásolják a szervezet üzleti lehetőségeivel kapcsolatos feltevéseiket, valamint ezáltal a vállalati stratégiát és innovációt. Jelen tanulmány egy koncepcióalkotó munka, mely négy alapvető stratégiai gondolkodásmódot azonosít, amelyek mindegyike sajátos módon kapcsolódik az innovációhoz. Későbbi empirikus vizsgálathoz kapcsolódóan három feltevést azonosít, melyek a következőek: 1. Minél dinamikusabb a vállalat stratégiai gondolkodásmódja, annál radikálisabb innovációs kezdeményezéseket támogat. 2. Időben a vállalatok (a stabilitásra való törekvésük miatt) a statikusabb stratégiai gondolkodásmód felé mozdulnak el. 3. Minél konzisztensebb a vállalat stratégiai gondolkodásmódja, annál nagyobb mértékben kerül megvalósításra a tervezett stratégia. _____ Strategic mindset is the sum of those cognitive patterns of a group of individuals in an organization which fundamentally influence their assumptions about business opportunities. Four types of strategic mindsets can be distinguished which fundamentally influence the strategy and innovation capability of the firm. This paper is a conceptual framework which describes three assumptions such as 1. the more dynamic strategic mindset results the more radical innovation strategy; 2. in time strategic mindsets become more static; and 3. the more consistent strategic mindsets inside the firm, the greater possibility of the intended strategy is implemented. By this way it is a first step of a future research examining why start-up companies can lose their innovation capability and why large firms can keep it?

Költség- és időcsökkentési eljárások alkalmazása a projekttervezésben és a nyomon követésben = Application of cost and time reduction procedures in project planning and the follow-up

A válság okozta megszorítások a projektek költségvetését sem hagyták változatlanul. Nagyon sokszor nemcsak a jövőbeni projekttervek költségvetését kell átgondolni, hanem a már futó projektek költségvetését is újra kell szabni. E tanulmány ilyen esetekben nyújthat módszertani támogatást. A szerző ebben a kutatásban négy költség- és időcsökkentő módszert hasonlít össze. Ismerteti, hogy ezeket az eljárásokat milyen módon lehet ötvözni, illetve mikor, melyiket célszerű alkalmazni. Az eljárások között van olyan módszer, amely a hagyományos projektmenedzsment (pl. építési, beruházási projektek menedzselésének) eszköztárát gazdagítja, de találkozhatunk olyan eljárásokkal is, amelyek az agilis projektszemléleten alapuló módszerek körét szélesítik. A bemutatott módszerek nemcsak a hálótervezési, hanem a mátrixos projekttervezési eljárások esetén is alkalmazhatók. ____ Due to the effects of the crisis, budgets of present as well as future projects are decreasing steadily. In this study four different methods are introduced for minimising budget and time demands. These introduced methods support not only the traditional but also the agile project management. Furthermore these methods can be used not only in case of network planning, but also for matrix-based project planning.

Doctor-Patient Knowledge Transfer: Innovative Technologies and Policy Implications

The aim of this study was to empirically investigate the barriers in doctor-patient communication and knowledge transfer and the role of innovative technologies in overcoming these barriers. We applied qualitative research methods. Our results show that patients extensively use information sources, primarily the Internet before the visits. Patients regularly apply a self-diagnosis regarding their diseases. This implies several risks as many of them are not able to properly interpret the found information and at the same time the information might not be reliable. To overcome these risks efforts are required within the fields of technology developments for making web sites more reliable and improvement of the health culture of patients, as well. Our research identified the most significant barriers of doctor-patient communication including limited time, the patients’ distress, inadequate health culture and prior knowledge, as well as poor communication skills of some clinicians. Technology might help clinicians to use their limited time more effectively. In the long term, innovative technology solutions might take over some tasks of the health care personnel if they provide reliable health information adapted to the patient’s health, emotional and psychosocial status. Barriers of access to the new technology should be identified and addressed otherwise it would increase the already existing knowledge gap between patients and doctors.

Interpretation of time and future in strategy research

Time is in constant motion: the present, the future and the past, although they are not concepts having a fixed meaning, they are present in everyday life both at the conscious and the unconscious levels. The author’s intention in this paper is to grasp the relationship of companies to time and to the future in the mature and nascent states of their life cycles. As discussed in this paper, this relationship may appear with little reflection in the form of assumptions in the eyes of strategy researchers and practitioners. At first the interrelatedness of theory and practice is discussed in order to focus on the role of scholars and practitioners in creating theory and putting it to practice or vice versa. This general introduction will lay the ground for the study of interpretations of the future and time from the perspective of strategy research and strategy practice, respectively.

The effect of the advanced placement examination for credit policy by the Florida State universities on the acceleration of a student's postsecondary education

The purpose of this research study was to determine if the Advanced Placement program as it is recognized by the universities in the Florida State University System (SUS) truly serves as an acceleration mechanism for those students who enter an SUS institution with passing AP scores. Despite mandates which attempt to control uniformity of policy, each public university in Florida determines which courses will be exempted and the number of credits they will grant for passing Advanced Placement courses.^ This is a descriptive study in which the AP policies of each of the SUS institutions were compared. Additionally, the college attendance and graduation data on members of a cohort of 593 Broward County high school graduates of the class of June, 1992 were compared. Approximately 28% of the cohort members entered university with passing Advanced Placement scores.^ The rate of early and on time graduation was significantly dependent on the Advanced Placement standing of the students in the cohort. Given the financial and human cost involved, it is recommended that all state universities bring their Advanced Placement policies into line with each other and implement a uniform Advanced Placement policy. It is also recommended that a follow-up study be conducted with a new cohort bound under the current 120 credit limitation for graduation. ^

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.