The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Efficient querying of large process model repositories

Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective and less error-prone than developing them from scratch. Since process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. To make our approach more applicable, we consider the semantic similarity between labels. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our approach is efficient.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

A model of organisational leadership development informing succession development : elements and practices

It is noted from observations of Compton (2009), Richards (2008), Taylor and Bennett (2002), and others that succession leadership planning and development fails to receive adequate attention in the corporate sector (see Byham 2002; Richards 2008; Wellins and Byham 2001). This paper acknowledges a marked paucity of systematic succession leadership development in education organisations. The need would seem to be compounded at a time when substantial attrition in the leadership ranks is expected over the next five years, reflecting widespread workforce demographics (Busine and Watt 2005; Jacobzone, Cambois, Chaplain, and Robine 1998; Taylor and Bennett 2002). The Lantern model has been developed in response to a perceived need to offer an integrated, systematic approach to organisational and succession leadership development. The model offers an organising framework for considering succession leadership development in a strategic, integrated way. The concept is based on organisational development and leadership literature which sees leadership development not as a series of 'tacked on' activities but as an organic 'whole of organisation' approach fostering the relevant knowledge, skills and understandings which support and 'grow' leaders as the organisation goes about its business. This paper explores how such an ideal might happen, and it suggests that pursuing such an ideal is timely. The leadership baton is set to shift at an accelerated rate in universities, as for organisations broadly, owing to age-related attrition. Moreover, given the increased complexity and demands of the leadership remit in the education leadership environment, it would seem particularly opportune to explore a framework concentrating on engendering a positive, connected organisational climate capable of growing strategic leadership strength from within. Eight core elements of the model, derived from the literature and practice research, are explored. The Lantern model purports to 'cover the bases' of succession leadership development, with particular reference to the education environment. The model is next described

A model for integrating clinical care and basic science research, and pitfalls of performing complex research projects for addressing a clinical challenge

The collaboration of clinicians with basic science researchers is crucial for addressing clinically relevant research questions. In order to initiate such mutually beneficial relationships, we propose a model where early career clinicians spend a designated time embedded in established basic science research groups, in order to pursue a postgraduate qualification. During this time, clinicians become integral members of the research team, fostering long term relationships and opening up opportunities for continuing collaboration. However, for these collaborations to be successful there are pitfalls to be avoided. Limited time and funding can lead to attempts to answer clinical challenges with highly complex research projects characterised by a large number of "clinical" factors being introduced in the hope that the research outcomes will be more clinically relevant. As a result, the complexity of such studies and variability of its outcomes may lead to difficulties in drawing scientifically justified and clinically useful conclusions. Consequently, we stress that it is the basic science researcher and the clinician's obligation to be mindful of the limitations and challenges of such multi-factorial research projects. A systematic step-by-step approach to address clinical research questions with limited, but highly targeted and well defined research projects provides the solid foundation which may lead to the development of a longer term research program for addressing more challenging clinical problems. Ultimately, we believe that it is such models, encouraging the vital collaboration between clinicians and researchers for the work on targeted, well defined research projects, which will result in answers to the important clinical challenges of today.

Delivering value for money in the procurement of public sector major infrastructure : a new first-order decision making model

The significant challenge faced by government in demonstrating value for money in the delivery of major infrastructure resolves around estimating costs and benefits of alternative modes of procurement. Faced with this challenge, one approach is to focus on a dominant performance outcome visible on the opening day of the asset, as the means to select the procurement approach. In this case, value for money becomes a largely nominal concept and determined by selected procurement mode delivering, or not delivering, the selected performance outcome, and notwithstanding possible under delivery on other desirable performance outcomes, as well as possibly incurring excessive transaction costs. This paper proposes a mind-set change in this particular practice, to an approach in which the analysis commences with the conditions pertaining to the project and proceeds to deploy transaction cost and production cost theory to indicate a procurement approach that can claim superior value for money relative to other competing procurement modes. This approach to delivering value for money in relative terms is developed in a first-order procurement decision making model outlined in this paper. The model developed could be complementary to the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) in terms of cross validation and the model more readily lends itself to public dissemination. As a possible alternative to the PSC, the model could save time and money in preparation of project details to lesser extent than that required in the reference project and may send a stronger signal to the market that may encourage more innovation and competition.

Sapporo World Window : urban interaction through public and private screens

This paper introduces Sapporo World Window, a screen-based application that is currently under development for the new underway passage at the centre of Sapporo City. There are ten large public screens installed in the space, displaying user-generated videos about various aspects of the city and a real-time map that visualises users’ interaction with the city. The application aims to engage the general public by functioning as a unique ‘point of connection’ for socio-cultural and technological interactions, making the space a lively social place where people can have meaningful experiences of interacting with people and places of Sapporo through mobile phones (keitai) and the public screens in the space. This paper first outlines the contextual background and key concept for the application’s design. Then the paper discusses the user interaction processes, technical specifications, and interface design, followed by the conclusions and outlook.

Assessing the leanness in product design : a model for planned design reuse

Shrinking product lifecycles, tough international competition, swiftly changing technologies, ever increasing customer quality expectation and demanding high variety options are some of the forces that drive next generation of development processes. To overcome these challenges, design cost and development time of product has to be reduced as well as quality to be improved. Design reuse is considered one of the lean strategies to win the race in this competitive environment. design reuse can reduce the product development time, product development cost as well as number of defects which will ultimately influence the product performance in cost, time and quality. However, it has been found that no or little work has been carried out for quantifying the effectiveness of design reuse in product development performance such as design cost, development time and quality. Therefore, in this study we propose a systematic design reuse based product design framework and developed a design leanness index (DLI) as a measure of effectiveness of design reuse. The DLI is a representative measure of reuse effectiveness in cost, development time and quality. Through this index, a clear relationship between reuse measure and product development performance metrics has been established. Finally, a cost based model has been developed to maximise the design leanness index for a product within the given set of constraints achieving leanness in design process.

An innovative robust reactive surgery assignment model

Online scheduling in the Operating Theatre Department is a dynamic process that deals with both elective and emergency patients. Each business day begins with an elective schedule determined in advance based on a mastery surgery schedule. Throughout the course of the day however, disruptions to this baseline schedule occur due to variations in treatment time, emergency arrivals, equipment failure and resource unavailability. An innovative robust reactive surgery assignment model is developed for the operating theatre department. Following the completion of each surgery, the schedule is re-solved taking into account any disruptions in order to minimise cancellations of pre-planned patients and maximise throughput of emergency cases. The single theatre case is solved and future work on the computationally more complex multiple theatre case under resource constraints is discussed.

Spatial stimulus : Model making in the architectural design studio

This action research examines the enhancement of visual communication within the architectural design studio through physical model making. „It is through physical model making that designers explore their conceptual ideas and develop the creation and understanding of space,‟ (Salama & Wilkinson 2007:126). This research supplements Crowther‟s findings extending the understanding of visual dialogue to include physical models. „Architecture Design 8‟ is the final core design unit at QUT in the fourth year of the Bachelor of Design Architecture. At this stage it is essential that students have the ability to communicate their ideas in a comprehensive manner, relying on a combination of skill sets including drawing, physical model making, and computer modeling. Observations within this research indicates that students did not integrate the combination of the skill sets in the design process through the first half of the semester by focusing primarily on drawing and computer modeling. The challenge was to promote deeper learning through physical model making. This research addresses one of the primary reasons for the lack of physical model making, which was the limited assessment emphasis on the physical models. The unit was modified midway through the semester to better correlate the lecture theory with studio activities by incorporating a series of model making exercises conducted during the studio time. The outcome of each exercise was assessed. Tutors were surveyed regarding the model making activities and a focus group was conducted to obtain formal feedback from students. Students and tutors recognised the added value in communicating design ideas through physical forms and model making. The studio environment was invigorated by the enhanced learning outcomes of the students who participated in the model making exercises. The conclusions of this research will guide the structure of the upcoming iteration of the fourth year design unit.

Time-dependent analysis of length of stay and mortality due urinary tract infections in ten developing countries : INICC findings

Catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) are a worldwide problem that may lead to increased patient morbidity, cost and mortality.1e3 The literature is divided on whether there are real effects from CAUTI on length of stay or mortality. Platt4 found the costs and mortality risks to be largeyetGraves et al found the opposite.5 A reviewof the published estimates of the extra length of stay showed results between zero and 30 days.6 The differences in estimates may have been caused by the different epidemiological methods applied. Accurately estimating the effects of CAUTI is difficult because it is a time-dependent exposure. This means that standard statistical techniques, such asmatched case-control studies, tend to overestimate the increased hospital stay and mortality risk due to infection. The aim of the study was to estimate excess length of stay andmortality in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a CAUTI, using a statistical model that accounts for the timing of infection. Data collected from ICU units in lower and middle income countries were used for this analysis.7,8 There has been little research for these settings, hence the need for this paper.

The First Steps Program : a case study of a new model of community child health service

Community Child Health Nursing Services provide support for new mothers; however, the focus has often been on individual consultations, complemented by a series of group sessions soon after birth. We describe a new model of community care for first-time mothers that centres on group sessions throughout the whole contact period. The model was developed by practicing child health nurses for a large health service district in south-east Queensland, which offers a comprehensive community child health service. Issues identified by clinicians working within existing services, feedback from clients and the need for more resource-efficient methods of service provision underpinned the development of the model. The pilot program was implemented in two community child health centres in Brisbane. An early individual consultation to engage the family with the service was added in response to feedback from clinicians and clients. The modified model has since been implemented service-wide as the ‘First Steps Program’. The introduction of this model has ensured that the service has been able to retain a comprehensive service for first-time parents from a universal population, while responding to the challenges of population growth and the increasing number of complex clients placing demands on resources.

Planning and implementing trajectories for autonomous underwater vehicles to track evolving ocean processes based on predictions from a regional ocean model

Path planning and trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community because automated data collection is becoming more prevalent. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations to perform data collection. In this paper, we present algorithms that determine paths for AUVs to track evolving features of interest in the ocean by considering the output of predictive ocean models. While traversing the computed path, the vehicle provides near-real-time, in situ measurements back to the model, with the intent to increase the skill of future predictions in the local region. The results presented here extend prelim- inary developments of the path planning portion of an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. This extension is the incorporation of multiple vehicles to track the centroid and the boundary of the extent of a feature of interest. Similar algorithms to those presented here are under development to consider additional locations for multiple types of features. The primary focus here is on algorithm development utilizing model predictions to assist in solving the motion planning problem of steering an AUV to high-valued locations, with respect to the data desired. We discuss the design technique to generate the paths, present simulation results and provide experimental data from field deployments for tracking dynamic features by use of an AUV in the Southern California coastal ocean.

Cooperative multi-AUV tracking of phytoplankton blooms based on ocean model predictions

In recent years, ocean scientists have started to employ many new forms of technology as integral pieces in oceanographic data collection for the study and prediction of complex and dynamic ocean phenomena. One area of technological advancement in ocean sampling if the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) as mobile sensor plat- forms. Currently, most AUV deployments execute a lawnmower- type pattern or repeated transects for surveys and sampling missions. An advantage of these missions is that the regularity of the trajectory design generally makes it easier to extract the exact path of the vehicle via post-processing. However, if the deployment region for the pattern is poorly selected, the AUV can entirely miss collecting data during an event of specific interest. Here, we consider an innovative technology toolchain to assist in determining the deployment location and executed paths for AUVs to maximize scientific information gain about dynamically evolving ocean phenomena. In particular, we provide an assessment of computed paths based on ocean model predictions designed to put AUVs in the right place at the right time to gather data related to the understanding of algal and phytoplankton blooms.

Trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles based on ocean model predictions for feature tracking

Trajectory design for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations for data collection. We consider the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, which then provides near-real time, in situ measurements back to the model to increase the skill of future predictions. The motion planning problem of steering the vehicle between the computed waypoints is not considered here. Our focus is on the algorithm to determine relevant points of interest for a chosen oceanographic feature. This represents a first approach to an end to end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We design a sampling plan and present experimental results with AUV retasking in the Southern California Bight (SCB) off the coast of Los Angeles.