Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Emerging borreliae – Expanding beyond Lyme borreliosis

Lyme borreliosis (or Lyme disease) has become a virtual household term to the exclusion of other forgotten, emerging or re-emerging borreliae. We review current knowledge regarding these other borreliae, exploring their ecology, epidemiology and pathological potential, for example, for the newly described B. mayonii. These bacteria range from tick-borne, relapsing fever-inducing strains detected in some soft ticks, such as B. mvumii, to those from bat ticks resembling B. turicatae. Some of these emerging pathogens remain unnamed, such as the borrelial strains found in South African penguins and some African cattle ticks. Others, such as B. microti and unnamed Iranian strains, have not been recognised through a lack of discriminatory diagnostic methods. Technical improvements in phylogenetic methods have allowed the differentiation of B. merionesi from other borrelial species that co-circulate in the same region. Furthermore, we discuss members that challenge the existing dogma that Lyme disease-inducing strains are transmitted by hard ticks, whilst the relapsing fever-inducing spirochaetes are transmitted by soft ticks. Controversially, the genus has now been split with Lyme disease-associated members being transferred to Borreliella, whilst the relapsing fever species retain the Borrelia genus name. It took some 60 years for the correlation with clinical presentations now known as Lyme borreliosis to be attributed to their spirochaetal cause. Many of the borreliae discussed here are currently considered exotic curiosities, whilst others, such as B. miyamotoi, are emerging as significant causes of morbidity. To elucidate their role as potential pathogenic agents, we first need to recognise their presence through suitable diagnostic approaches.

Which Boxes Do You Tick on the Outstanding Leader List?

The article published in the Times Educational Supplement (TES) features research by Professor Dhillon from the University of Worcester.

Repellent effects of Melaleuca alternifolia (tea tree) oil against cattle tick larvae (Rhipicephalus australis) when formulated as emulsions and in β-cyclodextrin inclusion complexes

Rhipicephalus australis (formerly Boophilus microplus) is a one host tick responsible for major economic loss in tropical and subtropical cattle production enterprises. Control is largely dependent on the application of acaricides but resistance has developed to most currently registered chemical groups. Repellent compounds that prevent initial attachment of tick larvae offer a potential alternative to control with chemical toxicants. The repellent effects of Melaleuca alternifolia oil (TTO) emulsions and two β-cyclodextrin complex formulations, a slow release form (SR) and a modified faster release form (FR), were examined in a series of laboratory studies. Emulsions containing 4% and 5% TTO applied to cattle hair in laboratory studies completely repelled ascending tick larvae for 24 h whereas 2% and 3% formulations provided 80% protection. At 48 h, 5% TTO provided 78% repellency but lower concentrations repelled less than 60% of larvae. In a study conducted over 15 days, 3% TTO emulsion applied to cattle hair provided close to 100% repellency for 2 days, but then protection fell to 23% by day 15. The FR formulation gave significantly greater repellency than the emulsion and the SR formulation from day 3 until the end of the study (P < 0.05), providing almost complete repellency at day 3 (99.5%), then decreasing over the period of the study to 49% repellency at day 15. Proof of concept is established for the use of appropriately designed controlled-release formulations to extend the period of repellency provided by TTO against R. australis larvae.

Fever, Hemiparesis and Hyponatraemia in a 63-year-old. HIV, another Great Masquerader?

The authors describe the unusual case of a 63-year-old patient who was referred with fever and lethargy, and was found to be hyponatraemic. The patient subsequently developed hemiparesis, and neuroradiology showed several space-occupying brain lesions. The cause was later identified as cerebral toxoplasmosis in undiagnosed Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS).

A Young Woman with Fever and Cervical Lymphadenopathy

Kikuchi-Fujimoto's disease is a self-limiting and rare disorder of unknown aetiology. The typical presentation includes fever, cervical lymphadenopathy and night sweats. Consequently, it is part of the differential diagnosis of infectious, lymphoproliferative and connective tissue diseases. Histology demonstrates necrotizing histiocytic lymphadenitis. Treatment is symptomatic with non-steroidal antiinflammatory agents, although there are reports of corticosteroid use in complicated cases. We present the case of a 23-year-old woman admitted to hospital for fever and cervical lymphadenopathies, and diagnosed with Kikuchi-Fujimoto's disease.

Hepcidin and Ferritin Levels in Fever of Unknown Origin: Is There a New Biomarker?

Background and objectives: Significantly elevated serum ferritin levels are associated with both iron overload and some inflammatory conditions. Hepcidin is a protein that interferes with iron absorption in inflammatory states and acts as an acute-phase reactant. Materials and methods: Here we report the case a 33-year-old patient who presented with high fever, skin lesions and arthralgia lasting for 2 weeks. His ferritin level was 13,800 µg/l and his hepcidin level was 61 ng/dl. Results: The final diagnosis was adult onset Still's disease. The condition evolved satisfactorily with steroid treatment, but after several weeks the patient presented with an unexpected recurrence. Conclusions: Hepcidin is a good inflammatory marker that could be useful in the differential diagnosis of hyperferritinaemia.

Acute Q Fever Presenting with Multi-Organ Failure: Re-Evaluation of the Initial Diagnosis

We present the case of a 48-year-old man admitted to the critical care unit with atrial fibrillation, and acute heart and kidney failure accompanied by coagulopathy and an abnormal liver test. Initially diagnosed as a non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, re-evaluation of the case led to the consideration of severe sepsis. Q fever and leptospirosis were the most probable causes and empiric treatment was initiated. A complete recovery was achieved following treatment.

Investigating novel approaches to the detection of virus neutralising antibodies to rabies and Rift Valley fever virus

Serosurveillance is a powerful tool fundamental to understanding infectious disease dynamics. The presence of virus neutralising antibody (VNAb) in sera is considered the best evidence of infection, or indeed vaccination, and the gold standard serological assay for their detection is the virus neutralisation test (VNT). However, VNTs are labour intensive, costly and time consuming. In addition, VNTs for the detection of antibodies to highly pathogenic viruses require the use of high containment facilities, restricting the application of these assays to the few laboratories with adequate facilities. As a result, robust serological data on such viruses are limited. In this thesis I develop novel VNTs for the detection of VNAb to two important, highly pathogenic, zoonotic viruses; rabies and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). The pseudotype-based neutralisation test developed in this study allows for the detection of rabies VNAb without the requirement for high containment facilities. This assay was utilised to investigate the presence of rabies VNAb in animals from a variety of ecological settings. In this thesis I present evidence of natural rabies infection in both domestic dogs and lions from rabies endemic settings. The assay was further used to investigate the kinetics of VNAb response to rabies vaccination in a cohort of free-roaming dogs. The RVFV neutralisation assay developed herein utilises a recombinant luciferase expressing RVFV, which allows for rapid, high-throughput serosurveillance of this important neglected pathogen. In this thesis I present evidence of RVFV infection in a variety of domestic and wildlife species from Northern Tanzania, in addition to the detection of low-level transmission of RVFV during interepidemic periods. Additionally, the investigation of a longitudinal cohort of domestic livestock also provided evidence of rapid waning of RVF VNAb following natural infection. Collectively, the serological data presented in this thesis are consistent with existing data in the literature generated using the gold standard VNTs. Increasing the availability of serological assays will allow the generation of robust serological data, which are imperative to enhancing our understanding of the complex, multi-host ecology of these two viruses.

Primary dengue haemorrhagic fever in patients from northeast of Brazil is associated with high levels of interferon-b during acute phase

Dengue is an acute febrile disease caused by the mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV) that according to clinical manifestations can be classified as asymptomatic, mild or severe dengue. Severe dengue cases have been associated with an unbalanced immune response characterised by an over secretion of inflammatory cytokines. In the present study we measured type I interferon (IFN-I) transcript and circulating levels in primary and secondary DENV infected patients. We observed that dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) patients express IFN-I differently. While DF and DHF patients express interferon-a similarly (52,71 ± 7,40 and 49,05 ± 7,70, respectively), high levels of circulating IFN-b were associated with primary DHF patients. On the other hand, secondary DHF patients were not able to secrete large amounts of IFN-b which in turn may have influenced the high-level of viraemia. Our results suggest that, in patients from our cohort, infection by DENV serotype 3 elicits an innate response characterised by higher levels of IFN-b in the DHF patients with primary infection, which could contribute to control infection evidenced by the low-level of viraemia in these patients. The present findings may contribute to shed light in the role of innate immune response in dengue pathogenesis.

Economic value for the trait tick count in Brangus cattle.

Profitability of a beef cattle system may be significantly reduced by the effects of tick (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus).

Detection of African Swine Fever Virus Antibodies in Serum and Oral Fluid Specimens Using a Recombinant Protein 30 (p30) Dual Matrix Indirect ELISA

In the absence of effective vaccine(s), control of African swine fever caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV) must be based on early, efficient, cost-effective detection and strict control and elimination strategies. For this purpose, we developed an indirect ELISA capable of detecting ASFV antibodies in either serum or oral fluid specimens. The recombinant protein used in the ELISA was selected by comparing the early serum antibody response of ASFV-infected pigs (NHV-p68 isolate) to three major recombinant polypeptides (p30, p54, p72) using a multiplex fluorescent microbead-based immunoassay (FMIA). Non-hazardous (non-infectious) antibody-positive serum for use as plate positive controls and for the calculation of sample-to-positive (S:P) ratios was produced by inoculating pigs with a replicon particle (RP) vaccine expressing the ASFV p30 gene. The optimized ELISA detected anti-p30 antibodies in serum and/or oral fluid samples from pigs inoculated with ASFV under experimental conditions beginning 8 to 12 days post inoculation. Tests on serum (n = 200) and oral fluid (n = 200) field samples from an ASFV-free population demonstrated that the assay was highly diagnostically specific. The convenience and diagnostic utility of oral fluid sampling combined with the flexibility to test either serum or oral fluid on the same platform suggests that this assay will be highly useful under the conditions for which OIE recommends ASFV antibody surveillance, i.e., in ASFV-endemic areas and for the detection of infections with ASFV isolates of low virulence.

Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.