Impacts of coexisting bronchial asthma on severe exacerbations in mild-to-moderate COPD : results from a national database

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Kyungjoo Kim for the confident statistical analyses in this work. This study was supported by a grant (2014P3300300) from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The abstract of this paper was presented at the Asian Pacific Society of Respirology 20th Congress as an oral presentation with interim findings. The poster’s abstract was published in “Poster Abstracts” in Respirology

Multiple maternal origins and weak phylogeographic structure in domestic goats

Domestic animals have played a key role in human history. Despite their importance, however, the origins of most domestic species remain poorly understood. We assessed the phylogenetic history and population structure of domestic goats by sequencing a hypervariable segment (481 bp) of the mtDNA control region from 406 goats representing 88 breeds distributed across the Old World. Phylogeographic analysis revealed three highly divergent goat lineages (estimated divergence >200,000 years ago), with one lineage occurring only in eastern and southern Asia. A remarkably similar pattern exists in cattle, sheep, and pigs. These results, combined with recent archaeological findings, suggest that goats and other farm animals have multiple maternal origins with a possible center of origin in Asia, as well as in the Fertile Crescent. The pattern of goat mtDNA diversity suggests that all three lineages have undergone population expansions, but that the expansion was relatively recent for two of the lineages (including the Asian lineage). Goat populations are surprisingly less genetically structured than cattle populations. In goats only ≈10% of the mtDNA variation is partitioned among continents. In cattle the amount is ≥50%. This weak structuring suggests extensive intercontinental transportation of goats and has intriguing implications about the importance of goats in historical human migrations and commerce.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.

Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia? Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06, 10 October 2013

The Asian economy is expected to realise favourable growth during the first half of this century, but there is no guarantee. There is a discussion about a ‘middle-income trap’, which refers to a country that has realised rapid growth to become a middle-income country but is unable to grow further. A middle-income trap could occur not only if there is a delay in shifting the economy toward a productivity-driven structure, but also if there is a worsening of income distribution.We consider this in line with the theories of development economics and through a quantitative analysis. The relationship between income inequality and the trap can be explained by the Kuznets hypothesis and the basic-needs approach. Our quantitative analysis supports the Kuznets hypothesis, and indicates that,although a low-income country can accelerate its economic growth with the worsening of income distribution as an engine, a middle income country would experience a decreasing growth rate if it fails to narrow the income gap between the top and bottom income groups. The results also show that the basic-needs approach is also applicable in practice, and imply that the improvement of access to secondary education is important. A sensitivity analysis for three Asian upper-middle-income countries(China, Malaysia and Thailand) also shows that the situation related to a middle-income trap is worse than average in China and Malaysia. These two countries, according to the result of the sensitivity analysis, should urgently improve access to secondary education and should implement income redistribution measures to develop high-tech industries, before their demographic dividends expire. Income redistribution includes the narrowing of rural urban income disparities, benefits to low-income individuals, direct income transfers, vouchers or free provision of education and health-care, and so on, but none of these are simple to implement.

Global and regional financial safety nets: lessons from Europe and Asia. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06 [07?], November 2013

The Asian financial crisis (1997) and the European crisis (2009) have both contributed to the development and deepening of regional safety net arrangements. This paper analyses the relationships between global and regional financial safety nets, and uncovers the potential tensions and operational challenges associated with the involvement of several institutional players with potentially different interests, analytical biases and governance. The G20 has acknowledged the importance of these new players for the international monetary system, but the principles for cooperation between the IMF and regional financing arrangements are far too broad and ad hoc to contribute to a coherent and effective architecture. This paper tries to establish some lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the current European crisis in order to enhance the effectiveness, efficiency, equity and governance of these arrangements. In particular, it proposes changes to the IMF articles of agreement to allow for lending or guarantees to regional arrangements directly and it establishes some key desirable features and practices of regional mechanisms that should be adopted everywhere to ensure some global consistency, particularly in the field of macroeconomic surveillance, programme design and conditionality.

Economic Consequences of a Transatlantic Free-Trade Agreement for Asia. Asia Policy Brief 2013/05, November 2013

Negotiations between the US and the European Union (EU) on a joint free-trade agreement began in July 2013. The economies involved are hoping for more intense trade activities, stronger economic growth and higher employment rates. A current study of the ifo Institut commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows that these expectations would be met. For most other countries in the world, however, this would result in welfare loss. In the following we sketch some of the possible economic consequences of a comprehensive transatlantic free-trade agreement for the Asian region.

Genetic association of CD247 (CD3ζ) with SLE in a large-scale multiethnic study

A classic T-cell phenotype in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is the downregulation and replacement of the CD3ζ chain that alters T-cell receptor signaling. However, genetic associations with SLE in the human CD247 locus that encodes CD3ζ are not well established and require replication in independent cohorts. Our aim was therefore to examine, localize and validate CD247-SLE association in a large multiethnic population. We typed 44 contiguous CD247 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8922 SLE patients and 8077 controls from four ethnically distinct populations. The strongest associations were found in the Asian population (11 SNPs in intron 1, 4.99 × 10(-4) < P < 4.15 × 10(-2)), where we further identified a five-marker haplotype (rs12141731-rs2949655-rs16859085-rs12144621-rs858554; G-G-A-G-A; P(hap) = 2.12 × 10(-5)) that exceeded the most associated single SNP rs858554 (minor allele frequency in controls = 13%; P = 4.99 × 10(-4), odds ratio = 1.32) in significance. Imputation and subsequent association analysis showed evidence of association (P < 0.05) at 27 additional SNPs within intron 1. Cross-ethnic meta-analysis, assuming an additive genetic model adjusted for population proportions, showed five SNPs with significant P-values (1.40 × 10(-3) < P< 3.97 × 10(-2)), with one (rs704848) remaining significant after Bonferroni correction (P(meta) = 2.66 × 10(-2)). Our study independently confirms and extends the association of SLE with CD247, which is shared by various autoimmune disorders and supports a common T-cell-mediated mechanism.

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event — tens of thousands of people lost their lives — the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora’s effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged.

(Table 1) Age model of sediment core MD03-2705

A reconstruction of northwest African summer monsoon strength during the cold marine isotopic stage (MIS) 6 indicates a link to the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). High-resolution studies of eolian dust supply and sea surface temperature recorded in marine core MD03-2705, on the Mauritanian margin, provide a better understanding about the penultimate glacial history of northwestern African aridity/humidity and upwelling coastal activity. Today, site MD03-2705 experiences increased upwelling and dust flux during the winter months, when the ITCZ is in a southerly position. Analyses of foraminifera isotopic composition suggest that during MIS 6.5 (180-168 ka) the average position of the ITCZ migrated north, marked by an increase in the strength of the summer monsoon, which decreased eolian dust transport and the coastal upwelling activity. The northward migration is in phase with a specific orbital combination of a low precessional index with a high obliquity signal. High-resolution analysis of stable isotopes (d18O and d13C) and microscale resolution geochemical (Ti/Al and quartz grain counts) determinations reveal that the transition between monsoonal humid (MIS 6.5) and dry (MIS 6.4) conditions has occurred in less than 1.3 ka. Such rapid changes suggest a nonlinear link between the African monsoonal rainfall system and environmental changes over the continent. This study provides new insights about the influence of vegetation and oceanic temperature feedbacks on the onset of African summer monsoon and demonstrates that, during the penultimate glacial period, changes in tropical dynamics had regional and global impacts.

Mineralogy of ODP Hole 117-722B (Appendix)

Bulk mineralogy of the terrigenous fraction of 99 samples from ODP Site 722 on the Owen Ridge, western Arabian Sea, has been determined by x-ray diffraction, using an internal standard method. The sampling interval, approximately 4.3 k.y., provides a detailed mineralogic record for the past 500 k.y. Previous studies have identified important modern continental sediment sources and the mineral assemblages presently derived from each. These studies have also demonstrated that most of this material is supplied by southwest and northwest winds during the summer monsoon. A variety of marine and terrestrial records and general circulation model (GCM) simulations have indicated the importance of monsoonal circulation during the Pleistocene and Holocene and have demonstrated increased aridity during glacial times and increased humidity during inter glacials. The mineralogic data generated here were used to investigate variations in source area weathering conditions during these environmental changes. Terrigenous minerals present include smectite, illite, palygorskite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz, plagioclase feldspar, and dolomite. This mineralogy is consistent with the compositions of source areas presently supplying sediment to the Arabian Sea. An R-mode factor analysis has identified four mineral assemblages present throughout the past 500 k.y.: quartz/chlorite/dolomite (Factor 1), kaolinite/plagioclase/illite (Factor 2), smectite (Factor 3), and palygorskite/dolomite (Factor 4). Chlorite, illite, and palygorskite are extremely susceptible to chemical weathering, and a spectral comparison of these factors with the eolian mass accumulation rate (MAR) record from Hole 722B (an index of dust source area aridity) indicates that Factors 1, 2, and 4 are directly related to changes in aridity. Because of these characteristics, Factors 1,2, and 4 are interpreted to originate from arid source regions. Factor 3 is interpreted to record more humid source conditions. Time-series of scores for the four factors are dominated by short-term (10-100 k.y.) variability, and do not correlate well to glacial/interglacial fluctuations in the time domain. These characteristics suggest that local climatic shifts were complex, and that equilibrium weathering assemblages did not develop immediately after climatic change. Spectral analysis of factor scores identifies peaks at or near the primary Milankovitch frequencies for all factors. Factor 1 (quartz/chlorite/dolomite), Factor 2 (kaolinite/plagioclase/illite), and Factor 4 (illite/palygorskite) are coherent and in phase with the MAR record over the 23, 41, and 100 k.y. bands, respectively. The reasons for coherency at single Milankovitch frequencies are not known, but may include differences in the susceptibilities of minerals to varying time scales of weathering and/or preferential development of suitable continental source environments by climatic changes at the various Milankovitch frequencies.

(Table 1) Age control points of ODP Site 160-968

The astronomical timescale of the Eastern Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene builds on tuning of sapropel layers to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. A 3000-year precession lag has become instrumental in the tuning procedure as radiocarbon dating revealed that the midpoint of the youngest sapropel, S1, in the early Holocene occurred approximately 3000 years after the insolation maximum. The origin of the time lag remains elusive, however, because sapropels are generally linked to maximum African monsoon intensities and transient climate modeling results indicate an in-phase behavior of the African monsoon relative to precession forcing. Here we present new high-resolution records of bulk sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from ODP Site 968 in the Eastern Mediterranean. We show that the 3000-year precession time lag of the sapropel midpoints is consistent with (1) the global marine isotope chronology, (2) maximum (monsoonal) precipitation conditions in the Mediterranean region and China derived from radiometrically dated speleothem records, and (3) maximum atmospheric methane concentrations in Antarctica ice cores. We show that the time lag relates to the occurrence of precession-paced North Atlantic cold events, which systematically delayed the onset of strong boreal summer monsoon intensity. Our findings may also explain a non-stationary behavior of the African monsoon over the past 3 million years due to more frequent and intensive cold events in the Late Pleistocene.

Calcareous nannofossils in Neogene sediments of ODP Leg 117 holes

Calcareous nannofossils were studied in 574 Neogene samples recovered from eight sites drilled in block-faulted basins on the continental margin of Oman. This portion of the Arabian Sea experiences seasonal upwelling associated with the southwest monsoon. Not surprisingly, some of the more typical Neogene warm-water nannoplankton are either missing entirely or are extremely rare in these sediments. Coccolithus pelagicus, a typical cold-water indicator, is extremely abundant in many samples of late Pliocene to early Pleistocene age. These intervals correspond to periods of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Reworked Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic nannofossils are found in a majority of the samples. They were probably carried from the Arabian Peninsula or the continent of Africa on strong southwest summer winds. Ages for the various nannofossil events were calculated by projecting the nannofossil datums onto the magnetostratigraphic scale for Sites 724, 727, and 728. These are the first ages for the various nannofossil datums derived from Oman Margin sediments. The following ages have been calculated for these nannofossil events: FAD Emiliania huxleyi, 0.23 Ma; LAD Pseudoemiliania lacunosa, 0.38 Ma; FAD Helicosphaera inversa, 0.42 Ma; top of acme of Reticulofenestra sp. A, 0.70 Ma; FAD Gephyrocapsaparallela, 0.85 Ma; LAD Gephyrocapsa spp. (large), 1.07 Ma; LAD Helicosphaera sellii, 1.34 Ma; LAD Calcidiscus macintyrei, 1.47 Ma; FAD Gephyrocapsa oceanica, 1.53 Ma; FAD Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica, 1.80 Ma; LAD Discoaster brouweri, 2.03 Ma; LAD Discoasterpentaradiatus, 2.31 Ma; LAD Discoaster surculus, 2.42; LAD Discoaster tamalis, 2.77 Ma; LAD Sphenolithus abies, 3.44 Ma; and LAD Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilica, 3.44 Ma.

Neodymium isotopic record of planktonic foraminifera in sediment core MD81-LC21

A well developed sapropel (S5) was deposited in the eastern Mediterranean during the Last Interglacial (Eemian), 124-119 ka. Freshwater contributions to the basin at this time can be traced using the isotopic composition of Nd in planktonic foraminifera. This enables differentiation between radiogenic sources to the south, under the influence of the African monsoon, and unradiogenic sources to the north, relating to the mid-latitude westerlies. Here we compare new Nd data, from a core in the southeast Aegean Sea, with published data from the Ionian and Levantine Seas. Shifts towards more radiogenic Nd in the lower and middle parts of sapropel S5 are most pronounced in the Ionian Sea record, with epsioln-Nd and d18O G. ruber co-varying more closely here than in the Levantine and Aegean Seas. This is consistent with a freshwater source proximal to the Ionian Sea site, likely indicating a substantial reactivation of rivers flowing northward from the central Saharan watershed. The lack, during S5 deposition, of a noticeable shift towards more unradiogenic Nd in the Aegean record would exclude a large influx of water from the northern borders of the eastern Mediterranean during sapropel deposition. These findings support a scenario whereby the Last Interglacial eastern Mediterranean was influenced strongly by the remote effects of an intensified African monsoon, with more local precipitation in the northern borders contributing relatively little to the sea surface composition.

Phylogeny, molecular and fossil dating, and biogeographic history of Annonaceae and Myristicaceae (Magnoliales)

Annonaceae and Myristicaceae, the two largest families of Magnoliales, are pantropical groups of uncertain geographic history. The most recent morphological and molecular phylogenetic analyses identify the Asian-American genus Anaxagorea as sister to all other Annonaceae and the ambavioids, consisting of small genera endemic to South America, Africa, Madagascar, and Asia, as a second branch. However, most genera form a large clade in which the basal lines are African, and South American and Asian taxa are more deeply nested. Although it has been suggested that Anaxagorea was an ancient Laurasian line, present data indicate that this genus is basically South American. These considerations may mean that the family as a whole began its radiation in Africa and South America in the Late Cretaceous, when the South Atlantic was narrower, and several lines dispersed from Africa-Madagascar into Laurasia as the Tethys closed in the Tertiary. This scenario is consistent with the occurrence of annonaceous seeds in the latest Cretaceous of Nigeria and the Eocene of England and with molecular dating of the family. Based on distribution of putatively primitive taxa in Madagascar and derived taxa in Asia, it has been suggested that Myristicaceae had a similar history. Phylogenetic analyses of Myristicaceae, using morphology and several plastid regions, confirm that the ancestral area was Africa-Madagascar and that Asian taxa are derived. However, Myristicaceae as a whole show strikingly lower molecular divergence than Annonaceae, indicating either a much younger age or a marked slowdown in molecular evolution. The fact that the oldest diagnostic fossils of Myristicaceae are Miocene seeds might be taken as evidence that Myristicaceae are much younger than Annonaceae, but this is implausible in requiring transoceanic dispersal of their large, animal-dispersed seeds.