Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Comparative effects of ageing and dementia of the Alzheimer type on orientation of visual attention

Age-related changes and the effects of dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) were investigated during a visual orienting attention task in which attention was pre-cued to one or other hemifields. Central cues were either valid, neutral, invalid or NoGo (inhibitory). The response time cost-benefit analysis showed a decreased benefit after valid cueing in the old compared with the young group with no change in the cost of invalid cueing. The older group were also slower over all cue types. These results suggest there is an age-related reduced ability to covertly orient attention in a visual hemifield before target onset. In contrast, the DAT group showed an increased response time benefit and showed a trend for a decreased cost in response time compared with controls. This was due to slowest response times after neutral cues. They also made significantly more response errors particularly following neutral cueing, and were less able to inhibit responses on NoGo trials than controls. The increased benefit and reduced cost found in the DAT group was interpreted as an impairment in dividing attention between left and right target locations.

Health technology diffusion in developing countries: a case study of CT scanners in Brazil

Background The development of products and services for health care systems is one of the most important phenomena to have occurred in the field of health care over the last 50 years. It generates significant commercial, medical and social results. Although much has been done to understand how health technologies are adopted and regulated in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the situation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we examine the institutional environment in which decisions are made regarding the adoption of expensive medical devices into the Brazilian health care system. Methods We used a case study strategy to address our research question. The empirical work relied on in-depth interviews (N = 16) with representatives of a wide range of actors and stakeholders that participate in the process of diffusion of CT (computerized tomography) scanners in Brazil, including manufacturers, health care organizations, medical specialty societies, health insurance companies, regulatory agencies and the Ministry of Health. Results The adoption of CT scanners is not determined by health policy makers or third-party payers of public and private sectors. Instead, decisions are primarily made by administrators of individual hospitals and clinics, strongly influenced by both physicians and sales representatives of the medical industry who act as change agents. Because this process is not properly regulated by public authorities, health care organizations are free to decide whether, when and how they will adopt a particular technology. Conclusions Our study identifies problems in how health care systems in LMICs adopt new, expensive medical technologies, and suggests that a set of innovative approaches and policy instruments are needed in order to balance the institutional and professional desire to practise a modern and expensive medicine in a context of health inequalities and basic health needs.

Posttranslational mechanisms associated with reduced NHE3 activity in adult vs. young prehypertensive SHR

Crajoinas RO, Lessa LMA, Carraro-Lacroix LR, Davel APC, Pacheco BPM, Rossoni LV, Malnic G, Girardi ACC. Posttranslational mechanisms associated with reduced NHE3 activity in adult vs. young prehypertensive SHR. Am J Physiol Renal Physiol 299:F872-F881, 2010. First published July 14, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajprenal.00654.2009.-Abnormalities in renal proximal tubular (PT) sodium transport play an important role in the pathophysiology of essential hypertension. The Na(+)/H(+) exchanger isoform 3 (NHE3) represents the major route for sodium entry across the apical membrane of renal PT cells. We therefore aimed to assess in vivo NHE3 transport activity and to define the molecular mechanisms underlying NHE3 regulation before and after development of hypertension in the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR). NHE3 function was measured as the rate of bicarbonate reabsorption by means of in vivo stationary microperfusion in PT from young prehypertensive SHR (Y-SHR; 5-wk-old), adult SHR (A-SHR; 14-wk-old), and age-matched Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats. We found that NHE3-mediated PT bicarbonate reabsorption was reduced with age in the SHR (1.08 +/- 0.10 vs. 0.41 +/- 0.04 nmol/cm(2)xs), while it was increased in the transition from youth to adulthood in the WKY rat (0.59 +/- 0.05 vs. 1.26 +/- 0.11 nmol/cm(2)xs). Higher NHE3 activity in the Y-SHR compared with A-SHR was associated with a predominant microvilli confinement and a lower ratio of phosphorylated NHE3 at serine-552 to total NHE3 (P-NHE3/total). After development of hypertension, P-NHE3/total increased and NHE3 was retracted out of the microvillar microdomain along with the regulator dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV). Collectively, our data suggest that the PT is playing a role in adapting to the hypertension in the SHR. The molecular mechanisms of this adaptation possibly include an increase of P-NHE3/total and a redistribution of the NHE3-DPPIV complex from the body to the base of the PT microvilli, both predicted to decrease sodium reabsorption.

The Aging Process of the Heart: Obesity Is the Main Risk Factor for Left Atrial Enlargement During Aging The MONICA/KORA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinations in Cardiovascular Disease/Cooperative Research in the Region of Augsburg) Study

Objectives This prospective study evaluated the association of obesity and hypertension with left atrial (LA) volume over 10 years. Background Although left atrial enlargement (LAE) is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation, stroke, and death, little information is available about determinants of LA size in the general population. Methods Participants (1,212 men and women, age 25 to 74 years) originated from a sex-and age-stratified random sample of German residents of the Augsburg area (MONICA S3). Left atrial volume was determined by standardized echocardiography at baseline and again after 10 years. Left atrial volume was indexed to body height (iLA). Left atrial enlargement was defined as iLA >= 35.7 and >= 33.7 ml/m in men and women, respectively. Results At baseline, the prevalence of LAE was 9.8%. Both obesity and hypertension were independent predictors of LAE, obesity (odds ratio [OR]: 2.4; p < 0.001) being numerically stronger than hypertension (OR: 2.2; p < 0.001). Adjusted mean values for iLA were significantly lower in normal-weight hypertensive patients (25.4 ml/m) than in obese normotensive individuals (27.3 ml/m; p = 0.016). The highest iLA was found in the obese hypertensive subgroup (30.0 ml/m; p < 0.001 vs. all other groups). This group also presented with the highest increase in iLA (+6.0 ml/m) and the highest incidence (31.6%) of LAE upon follow-up. Conclusions In the general population, obesity appears to be the most important risk factor for LAE. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, early interventions, especially in young obese individuals, are essential to prevent premature onset of cardiac remodeling at the atrial level. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2009; 54: 1982-9) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation