Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Positive time-frequency distributions based on joint marginal constraints

This correspondence studies the formulation of members ofthe Cohen-Posch class of positive time-frequency energy distributions.Minimization of cross-entropy measures with respect to different priorsand the case of no prior or maximum entropy were considered. It isconcluded that, in general, the information provided by the classicalmarginal constraints is very limited, and thus, the final distributionheavily depends on the prior distribution. To overcome this limitation,joint time and frequency marginals are derived based on a "directioninvariance" criterion on the time-frequency plane that are directly relatedto the fractional Fourier transform.

Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions

1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

Extreme-value distributions and renormalization group

In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. The vast majority of the literature on the subject deals with affine normalization. We argue that more general normalizations are natural from a mathematical and physical point of view and work them out. The problem is approached using the language of renormalization-group transformations in the space of probability densities. The limit distributions are fixed points of the transformation and the study of its differential around them allows a local analysis of the domains of attraction and the computation of finite-size corrections.

Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.

Energy-momentum tensor for scalar fields coupled to the dilaton in two dimensions

We clarify some issues related to the evaluation of the mean value of the energy-momentum tensor for quantum scalar fields coupled to the dilaton field in two-dimensional gravity. Because of this coupling, the energy-momentum tensor for matter is not conserved and therefore it is not determined by the trace anomaly. We discuss different approximations for the calculation of the energy-momentum tensor and show how to obtain the correct amount of Hawking radiation. We also compute cosmological particle creation and quantum corrections to the Newtonian potential.

The Dynamics of Force Fluctuations in Shear Granular Flows

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia rakeisen materiaalin kinematiikkaa ja rakentaa koelaitteisto rakeisen materiaalin leikkausjännitysvirtauksien tutkimiseen. Kokeellisessa osassa on keskitytty sisäisiin voimaheilahteluihin ja niiden ymmärtämiseen. Teoriaosassa on käyty läpi rakeisen materiaalin yleisiä ominaisuuksia ja lisäksi on esitetty kaksi eri tapaa mallintaa fysikaalisien ominaisuuksien heilahteluja rakeisessa materiaalissa. Nämä kaksi esitettyä mallinnusmenetelmää ovat skalaarinen q-malli ja simulointi. Skalaarinen q-malli määrittelee jokaiseen yksittäiseen rakeeseen kohdistuvan jännityksen, rakeen ollessa osa 2- tai 3-dimensionaalista asetelmaa. Tämän mallin perusidea on kuvata jännityksien epähomogeenisuutta, joka johtuu rakeiden satunnaisasettelusta. Simulointimallinnus perustuu event-driven algoritmiin, missä systeemin dynamiikkaa kuvataan yksittäisillä partikkelien törmäyksillä. Törmäyksien vaiheet ratkaistiin käyttämällä liikemääräyhtälöitä ja restituution määritelmää. Teoriaosuudessa käytiin vielä pieniltä osin läpi syitä jännitysheilahteluihin ja rakeisen materiaalin lukkiintumiseen. Tutkimuslaitteistolla tutkittiin rakeisen materiaalin käyttäytymistä rengasmaisessa leikkausjännitysvirtauksessa. Tutkimusosuuden päätavoitteena oli mitata partikkelien kosketuksista ja törmäyksistä johtuvia hetkellisiä voimaheilahteluja rengastilavuuden pohjalta. Rakeisena materiaalina tutkimuksessa käytettiin teräskuulia. Jännityssignaali ajan funktiona osoittaa suurta heilahtelua, joka voi olla jopa kertalukua keskiarvosta suurempaa. Tällainen suuren amplitudin omaava heilahtelu on merkittävä haittapuoli yleisesti rakeisissa materiaaleissa käytettyjen jatkuvuusmallien kanssa. Tällainen heilahtelu tekee käytetyt jatkuvuusmallit epäpäteviksi. Yleisellä tasolla jännityksien todennäköisyysjakauma on yhtäpitävä skalaarisen q-mallin tuloksien kanssa. Molemmissa tapauksissa todennäköisyysjakaumalla on eksponentiaalinen muoto.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Back to Gondwanaland: can ancient vicariance explain (some) Indian Ocean disjunct plant distributions?

Oceans, or other wide expanses of inhospitable environment, interrupt present day distributions of many plant groups. Using molecular dating techniques, generally incorporating fossil evidence, we can estimate when such distributions originated. Numerous dating analyses have recently precipitated a paradigm shift in the general explanations for the phenomenon, away from older geological causes, such as continental drift, in favour of more recent, long-distance dispersal (LDD). For example, the 'Gondwanan vicariance' scenario has been dismissed in various studies of Indian Ocean disjunct distributions. We used the gentian tribe Exaceae to reassess this scenario using molecular dating with minimum (fossil), maximum (geological), secondary (from wider analyses) and hypothesis-driven age constraints. Our results indicate that ancient vicariance cannot be ruled out as an explanation for the early origins of Exaceae across Africa, Madagascar and the Indian subcontinent unless a strong assumption is made about the maximum age of Gentianales. However, both the Gondwanan scenario and the available evidence suggest that there were also several, more recent, intercontinental dispersals during the diversification of the group.

Momentum dependence of the phi-meson nuclear transparency

The production of φ mesons in proton collisions with C, Cu, Ag, and Au targets has been studied via the φ → K + K − decay at an incident beam energy of 2.83 GeV using the ANKE detector system at COSY. For the first time, the momentum dependence of the nuclear transparency ratio, the in-medium φ width, and the differential cross section for φ -meson production at forward angles have been determined for these targets over the momentum range of 0.6-1.6 GeV /c. There are indications of a significant momentum dependence in the value of the extracted φ width, which corresponds to an effective φN absorption cross section in the range of 14-21 mb.

Counter-propagating dual-trap optical tweezers based on linear momentum conservation

We present a dual-trap optical tweezers setup which directly measures forces using linear momentum conservation. The setup uses a counter-propagating geometry, which allows momentum measurement on each beam separately. The experimental advantages of this setup include low drift due to all-optical manipulation, and a robust calibration (independent of the features of the trapped object or buffer medium) due to the force measurement method. Although this design does not attain the high-resolution of some co-propagating setups, we show that it can be used to perform different single molecule measurements: fluctuation-based molecular stiffness characterization at different forces and hopping experiments on molecular hairpins. Remarkably, in our setup it is possible to manipulate very short tethers (such as molecular hairpins with short handles) down to the limit where beads are almost in contact. The setup is used to illustrate a novel method for measuring the stiffness of optical traps and tethers on the basis of equilibrium force fluctuations, i.e., without the need of measuring the force vs molecular extension curve. This method is of general interest for dual trap optical tweezers setups and can be extended to setups which do not directly measure forces.

Gaining momentum: New options and opportunities for the treatment of advanced melanoma.

Before 2011, patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma had a particularly poor long-term prognosis. Since traditional treatments failed to confer a survival benefit, patients were preferentially entered into clinical trials of investigational agents. A greater understanding of the epidemiology and biology of disease has underpinned the development of newer therapies, including six agents that have been approved in the EU, US and/or Japan: a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 inhibitor (ipilimumab), two programmed cell death-1 receptor inhibitors (nivolumab and pembrolizumab), two BRAF inhibitors (vemurafenib and dabrafenib) and a MEK inhibitor (trametinib). The availability of these treatments has greatly improved the outlook for patients with advanced melanoma; however, a major consideration for physicians is now to determine how best to integrate these agents into clinical practice. Therapeutic decisions are complicated by the need to consider patient and disease characteristics, and individual treatment goals, alongside the different efficacy and safety profiles of agents with varying mechanisms of action. Long-term survival, an outcome largely out of reach with traditional systemic therapies, is now a realistic goal, creating the additional need to re-establish how clinical benefit is evaluated. In this review we summarise the current treatment landscape in advanced melanoma and discuss the promise of agents still in development. We also speculate on the future of melanoma treatment and discuss how combination and sequencing approaches may be used to optimise patient care in the future.