How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Tenofovir use is associated with a reduction in calculated glomerular filtration rates in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: A growing number of case reports have described tenofovir (TDF)-related proximal renal tubulopathy and impaired calculated glomerular filtration rates (cGFR). We assessed TDF-associated changes in cGFR in a large observational HIV cohort. METHODS: We compared treatment-naive patients or patients with treatment interruptions > or = 12 months starting either a TDF-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (n = 363) or a TDF-sparing regime (n = 715). The predefined primary endpoint was the time to a 10 ml/min reduction in cGFR, based on the Cockcroft-Gault equation, confirmed by a follow-up measurement at least 1 month later. In sensitivity analyses, secondary endpoints including calculations based on the modified diet in renal disease (MDRD) formula were considered. Endpoints were modelled using pre-specified covariates in a multiple Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Two-year event-free probabilities were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.72) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.83) for patients starting TDF-containing or TDF-sparing cART, respectively. In the multiple Cox model, diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.34 [95% CI 1.24-4.42]), higher baseline cGFR (HR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.02-1.04] by 10 ml/min), TDF use (HR = 1.84 [95% CI 1.35-2.51]) and boosted protease inhibitor use (HR = 1.71 [95% CI 1.30-2.24]) significantly increased the risk for reaching the primary endpoint. Sensitivity analyses showed high consistency. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence for a significant reduction in cGFR associated with TDF use in HIV-infected patients. Our findings call for a strict monitoring of renal function in long-term TDF users with tests that distinguish between glomerular dysfunction and proximal renal tubulopathy, a known adverse effect of TDF.

Predictors of optimal viral suppression in patients switched to abacavir, lamivudine, and zidovudine: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate predictors of continued HIV RNA viral load suppression in individuals switched to abacavir (ABC), lamivudine (3TC) and zidovudine (ZDV) after successful previous treatment with a protease inhibitor or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based combination antiretroviral therapy. DESIGN AND METHODS: An observational cohort study, which included individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study switching to ABC/3TC/ZDV following successful suppression of viral load. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure defined as the first of the following events: two consecutiveviral load measurements > 400 copies/ml under ABC/3TC/ZDV, one viral load measurement > 400 copies/ml and subsequent discontinuation of ABC/3TC/ZDV within 3 months, AIDS or death. RESULTS: We included 495 individuals; 47 experienced treatment failure in 1459 person-years of follow-up [rate = 3.22 events/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.30-4.14]. Of all failures, 62% occurred in the first year after switching to ABC/3TC/ZDV. In a Cox regression analysis, treatment failure was independently associated with earlier exposure to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mono or dual therapy [hazard ratio (HR), 8.02; 95% CI, 4.19-15.35) and low CD4 cell count at the time of the switch (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51-0.87 by +100 cells/microl up to 500 cells/microl). In patients without earlier exposure to mono or dual therapy, AIDS prior to switch to simplified maintenance therapy was an additional risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: The failure rate was low in patients with suppressed viral load and switch to ABC/3TC/ZDV treatment. Patients with earlier exposure to mono or dual NRTI therapy, low CD4 cell count at time of switch, or AIDS are at increased risk of treatment failure, limiting the use of ABC/3TC/ZDV in these patient groups.

Treatment and prognosis of AIDS-related lymphoma in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: findings from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the characteristics of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) administered concomitantly with chemotherapy and to establish prognostic determinants of patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. METHODS: The study included 91 patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study enrolled between January 1997 and October 2003, excluding lymphomas of the brain. We extracted AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma- and HIV-specific variables at the time of lymphoma diagnosis as well as treatment changes over time from charts and from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database. Cox regression analyses were performed to study predictors of overall and progression-free survival. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 1.6 years, 57 patients died or progressed. Thirty-five patients stopped chemotherapy prematurely (before the sixth cycle) usually due to disease progression; these patients had a shorter median survival than those who completed six or more cycles (14 versus 28 months). Interruptions of cART decreased from 35% before chemotherapy to 5% during chemotherapy. Factors associated with overall survival were CD4+ T-cell count (<100 cells/microl) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.95 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53-5.67], hepatitis C seropositivity (HR 2.39 [95% CI 1.01-5.67]), the international prognostic index score (HR 1.98-3.62 across categories) and Burkitt histological subtypes (HR 2.56 [95% CI 1.13-5.78]). CONCLUSIONS: Interruptions of cART were usually not induced by chemotherapy. The effect of cART interruptions on AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis remains unclear, however, hepatitis C seropositivity emerged-as a predictor of death beyond the well-known international prognostic index score and CD4+ T-cell count.

Ecological study of the predictors of successful management of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected patients on ART: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may induce metabolic changes and increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a health care system approach, we investigated predictors for normalization of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals receiving ART. METHOD: Individuals included in the study were registered in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), had dyslipidemia but were not on lipid-lowering medication, were on potent ART for >or= 3 months, and had >or= 2 follow-up visits. Dyslipidemia was defined as two consecutive total cholesterol (TC) values above recommended levels. Predictors of achieving treatment goals for TC were assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: Analysis included 958 individuals with median followup of 2.3 years (IQR 1.2-4.0). 454 patients (47.4%) achieved TC treatment goals. In adjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with a lower hazard of reaching TC treatment goals were as follows: older age (compared to 18-37 year olds: hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 for 45-52 year olds, 95% CI 0.47-0.82; HR 0.40 for 53-85, 95% CI 0.29-0.54), diabetes (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59), history of coronary heart disease (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.71), higher baseline TC (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), baseline triple nucleoside regimen (HR 0.12 compared to PI-only regimen, 95% CI 0.07-0.21), longer time on PI-only regimen (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46), longer time on NNRTI only regimen (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.43), and longer time on PI/NNRTI regimen (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.43). Switching ART regimen when viral load was undetectable was associated with a higher hazard of reaching TC treatment goals (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.14-1.91). CONCLUSION: In SHCS participants on ART, several ART-related and not ART-related epidemiological factors were associated with insufficient control of dyslipidemia. Control of dyslipidemia in ART recipients must be further improved.

Lipid profiles for antiretroviral-naive patients starting PI- and NNRTI-based therapy in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: Blood lipid abnormalities in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have been associated with exposure to protease inhibitors (PIs), particularly ritonavir. First therapy with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) leads to relatively favourable lipid profiles. We report on medium-term lipid profiles (up to 5 years) for antiretroviral-naive patients starting NNRTI- and PI-based HAART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Since April 2000, blood samples taken at visits scheduled every 6 months have been analysed for cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations. For 1065 antiretroviral-naive patients starting HAART after April 2000, we estimated changes in concentration over time using multivariate linear regression with adjustment for baseline covariates, use of lipid-lowering drugs and whether the sample was taken in a fasting state. RESULTS: Non-high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels increase with increasing exposure to either PI- or NNRTI-based therapy, HDL cholesterol levels increase and triglyceride levels decrease with increasing exposure to NNRTI-based therapy, whereas triglyceride levels increase with increasing exposure to PI-based therapy. Between NNRTI-based therapies, there is a slight difference in triglyceride levels, which tend to increase with increasing exposure to efavirenz and to decrease with increasing exposure to nevirapine. Of the three common PI-based therapies, nelfinavir appears to have a relatively favourable lipid profile, with little change with increasing exposure. Of the other two PI therapies, lopinavir with ritonavir has a more favourable profile than indinavir with ritonavir, with smaller increases in both non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides and an increase in HDL cholesterol. Increasing exposure to abacavir is associated with a decrease in the level of triglycerides. CONCLUSION: In general, NNRTI-based therapy is associated with a more favourable lipid profile than PI-based therapy, but different PI-based therapies are associated with very different lipid profiles. Nelfinavir appears to have a relatively favourable lipid profile. Of the two boosted PI therapies, lopinavir appears to have a more favourable lipid profile than indinavir.

Unsafe sex and increased incidence of hepatitis C virus infection among HIV-infected men who have sex with men: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Data on the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons are sparse. It is controversial whether and how frequently HCV is transmitted by unprotected sexual intercourse. METHODS: We assessed the HCV seroprevalence and incidence of HCV infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 1988 and 2004. We investigated the association of HCV seroconversion with mode of HIV acquisition, sex, injection drug use (IDU), and constancy of condom use. Data on condom use or unsafe sexual behavior were prospectively collected between 2000 and 2004. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence of HCV infection was 33% among a total of 7899 eligible participants and 90% among persons reporting IDU. We observed 104 HCV seroconversions among 3327 participants during a total follow-up time of 16,305 person-years, corresponding to an incidence of 0.64 cases per 100 person-years. The incidence among participants with a history of IDU was 7.4 cases per 100 person-years, compared with 0.23 cases per 100 person-years in patients without such a history (P<.001). In men who had sex with men (MSM) without a history of IDU who reported unsafe sex, the incidence was 0.7 cases per 100 person-years, compared with 0.2 cases per 100 person-years in those not reporting unsafe sex (P=.02), corresponding to an incidence rate ratio of 3.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-10.0). The hazard of acquiring HCV infection was elevated among younger participants who were MSM. CONCLUSIONS: HCV infection incidence in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study was mainly associated with IDU. In HIV-infected MSM, HCV infection was associated with unsafe sex.

Body fat changes among antiretroviral-naive patients on PI- and NNRTI-based HAART in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: Body fat changes are common in patients with HIV. For patients on protease inhibitor (PI)-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), these changes have been associated with increasing exposure to therapy in general and to stavudine in particular. Our objective is to show whether such associations are more or less likely for patients on non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based HAART. METHODS: We included all antiretroviral-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting HAART after April 2000 who had had body weight, CD4 cell count and plasma HIV RNA measured between 6 months before and 3 months after starting HAART, and at least one assessment of body fat changes after starting HAART. At visits scheduled every 6 months, fat loss or fat gain is reported by agreement between patient and physician. We estimate the association between reported body fat changes and both time on therapy and time on stavudine, using conditional logistical regression. RESULTS: Body fat changes were reported for 85 (9%) out of 925 patients at their first assessment; a further 165 had only one assessment. Of the remaining 675 patients, body fat changes were reported for 156 patients at a rate of 13.2 changes per 100 patient-years. Body fat changes are more likely with increasing age [odds ratio (OR) 1.18 (1.00-1.38) per 10 years], with increasing BMI [OR 1.06 (1.01-1.11)] and in those with a lower baseline CD4 cell count [OR 0.91 (0.83-1.01) per 100 cells/microl]. There is only weak evidence that body fat changes are more likely with increasing time on HAART [OR 1.16 (0.93-1.46)]. After adjusting for time on HAART, fat loss is more likely with increasing stavudine use [OR 1.70 (1.34-2.15)]. There is no evidence of an association between reported fat changes and time on NNRTI therapy relative to PI therapy in those patients who used either one therapy or the other [OR 0.98 (0.56-1.63)]. CONCLUSION: Fat loss is more likely to be reported with increasing exposure to stavudine. We find no evidence of major differences between PI and NNRTI therapy in the risk of reported body fat changes.

Epidemiology of candidemia in Swiss tertiary care hospitals: secular trends, 1991-2000

Candida species are among the most common bloodstream pathogens in the United States, where the emergence of azole-resistant Candida glabrata and Candida krusei are major concerns. Recent comprehensive longitudinal data from Europe are lacking. We conducted a nationwide survey of candidemia during 1991-2000 in 17 university and university-affiliated hospitals representing 79% of all tertiary care hospital beds in Switzerland. The number of transplantations and bloodstream infections increased significantly (P<.001). A total of 1137 episodes of candidemia were observed: Candida species ranked seventh among etiologic agents (2.9% of all bloodstream isolates). The incidence of candidemia was stable over a 10-year period. C. albicans remained the predominant Candida species recovered (66%), followed by C. glabrata (15%). Candida tropicalis emerged (9%), the incidence of Candida parapsilosis decreased (1%), and recovery of C. krusei remained rare (2%). Fluconazole consumption increased significantly (P<.001). Despite increasing high-risk activities, the incidence of candidemia remained unchanged, and no shift to resistant species occurred.