Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from participatory based approaches such as community hazard mapping and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques, to analyze the impact of climate change and the behavior of affected communities and households.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further complicated by the prospect of dealing with a confluence of hazards in comparison with those in other ecosystems. Against this backdrop Worldfish and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) collaborated to implement the cross-country study “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam”. As its title suggests the study covered selected sites in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Employing a gamut of interdisciplinary methodologies -- ranging from community-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and focus group discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques -- the study documented the impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities. These were typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The team also analyzed planned adaptation options suited to implementation by communities and local governments, augmenting autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards.

Extreme tides and sea levels in California [abstract]

During the winter of 1982-1983, a combination of high tides, higher than normal sea level and storm-induced waves were devastating to the coast of California. Damage estimates for public and private property destruction in the coastal counties of California totaled over $100,000,000. Much higher than average sea levels played a very important contributory role in the flooding damage. These unusually high sea levels were due to a combination of higher than normal mixed layer temperature associated with a strong, 2-year El Nino, storm surge due to low atmospheric pressure and persistent winds, and the cumulative effect of steady, "global" rise in relative sea level. Higher than average high tides coincided to an unusual extent with the peak sea levels reached during the numerous storms between November 1982 and March 1983. Important cyclical variations occur in California's mixed tide regime and the consequences of these on extreme tides have not been properly considered previously. In fact, erroneous "predictions" of much higher tides in the 1990's appearing in the popular press during the 1982-83 flooding, caused much public apprehension.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

An assessment of chemical contaminants detected in passive water samplers deployed in the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER)

This report is the second in a series from a project to assess land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and effects in the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER) in St. Thomas, USVI, and is the result of a collaborative effort between NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, the USVI Department of Planning and Natural Resources, the University of the Virgin Islands, and The Nature Conservancy. Passive water samplers (POCIS) were deployed in the STEER in February 2012. Developed by the US Geological Survey (USGS) as a tool to detect the presence of water soluble contaminants in the environment, POCIS samplers were deployed in the STEER at five locations. In addition to the February 2012 deployment, the results from an earlier POCIS deployment in May 2010 in Turpentine Gut, a perennial freshwater stream which drains to the STEER, are also reported. A total of 26 stormwater contaminants were detected at least once during the February 2012 deployment in the STEER. Detections were high enough to estimate ambient water concentrations for nine contaminants using USGS sampling rate values. From the May 2010 deployment in Turpentine Gut, 31 stormwater contaminants were detected, and ambient water concentrations could be estimated for 17 compounds. Ambient water concentrations were estimated for a number of contaminants including the detergent/surfactant metabolite 4-tert-octylphenol, phthalate ester plasticizers DEHP and DEP, bromoform, personal care products including menthol, indole, n,n-diethyltoluamide (DEET), along with the animal/plant sterol cholesterol, and the plant sterol beta-sitosterol. Only DEHP appeared to have exceeded a water quality guideline for the protection of aquatic organisms.

Shallow-water benthic habitats of southwest Puerto Rico

This report describes the creation and assessment of benthic habitat maps for shallow-water (<30m) marine environments of the Guánica/Parguera and Finca Belvedere Natural Reserve in southwest Puerto Rico. The objective was to provide spatially-explicit information on the habitat types, biological cover and live coral cover of the region’s coral reef ecosystem. These fine-scale habitat maps, generated by interpretation of 2010 satellite imagery, provide an update to NOAA’s previous digital maps of the U.S. Caribbean (Kendall et al., 2001) for these areas. Updated shallow-water benthic habitat maps for the Guánica/Parguera region are timely in light of ongoing restoration efforts in the Guánica Bay watershed. The bay is served directly by one river, the Rio Loco, which flows intermittently and more frequently during the rainy season. The watershed has gone through a series of manipulations and alterations in past decades, mainly associated with agricultural practices, including irrigation systems, in the upper watershed. The Guánica Lagoon, previously situated to the north of the bay, was historically the largest freshwater lagoon in Puerto Rico and served as a natural filter and sediment sink prior to the discharge of the Rio Loco into the Bay. Following alterations by the Southwest Water Project in the 1950s, the Lagoon’s adjacent wetland system was ditched and drained; no longer filtering and trapping sediment from the Rio Loco. Land use in the Guánica Bay/Rio Loco watershed has also gone through several changes (CWP, 2008). Similar to much of Puerto Rico, the area was largely deforested for sugar cane cultivation in the 1800s, although reforestation of some areas occurred following the cessation of sugar cane production (Warne et al., 2005). The northern area of the watershed is generally mountainous and is characterized by a mix of forested and agricultural lands, particularly coffee plantations. Closer to the coast, the Lajas Valley Agricultural Reserve extends north of Guánica Bay to the southwest corner of the island. The land use practices and watershed changes outlined above have resulted in large amounts of sediment being distributed in the Rio Loco river valley (CWP, 2008). Storm events and seasonal flooding also transport large amounts of sediment to the coastal waters. The threats of upstream watershed practices to coral reefs and the nearshore marine environment have been gaining recognition. Guánica Bay, and the adjacent marine waters, has been identified as a “management priority area” by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP, 2012). In a recent Guánica Bay watershed management plan, several critical issues were outlined in regards to land-based sources of pollution (LBSP; CWP, 2008). These include: upland erosion from coffee agriculture, filling of reservoirs with sediment, in-stream channel erosion, loss of historical Guánica lagoon, legacy contaminants and sewage treatment (CWP, 2008). The plan recommended several management actions that could be taken to reduce impacts of LBSP, which form the basis of Guánica watershed restoration efforts.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The Holocene history of flooding in northern coastal Peru is believed to be a proxy record for the El Niño phenomenon. A recently completed set of 30 radiocarbon dates on overbank flood deposits and a tsunami deposit from the Casma region (Figure 1 and Table 1) establishes a chronology for the largest events that have occurred during the last 3500 years. ... The data presented here indicate that events much larger than the one in 1982-1983 may occur with a frequency of about once every 1000 years.

Anomalous atmospheric circulation and large winter floods in six subregions of the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We examined atmospheric circulation conditions conducive to occurrence of winter floods that exceed the 10-year peak discharge on rivers in six hydroclimatic subregions in Arizona, southern Utah, Nevada, and California. ... This relationship between flooding and broad-scale atmospheric patterns in the modern record will aid in paleoclimatic interpretations of paleoflood records over the last few thousand years.

California water conditions in 1995

From 1987 through 1992, California endured 6 consecutive years of drought for the second time this century. The drought was broken in most parts of the state by a wet year in 1993, in which runoff was 125 percent of average. But 1994 was again critically dry, with runoff only 40 percent of average statewide, raising fears that the drought had resumed. The "drought watch" of 1994 was finally washed out to sea by two large floods (January and March), which made 1995 one of the wettest years this century and refilled all but a couple of California's major reservoirs. This paper provides information on water conditions and flooding in 1995 and some comparisons with previous years.

The top ten California floods of the 20th century

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the biggest northern California floods of the 20th century. Flooding in California can occur from different causes. At least three types of floods occur: 1. Winter general floods, which cover a large area. 2. Spring and early summer snowmelt floods unique to the higher-elevation central and southern Sierra Nevada, which occur about once in 10 years on the average. 3. Local floods from strong thunderstorms, with intense rain over a relatively small area. These originate in moist tropical or subtropical air and include the flash floods of the desert and other areas of southern California when remnants of eastern Pacific hurricanes get carried into the state.

濒危植物疏花水柏枝种群生物学和回归引种的研究

　本文对三峡库区濒危植物疏花水柏枝的种子形成与传播、种子萌发与幼苗定居、植株生长动态等种群生物学特性及其与环境的关系，特别是对水淹胁迫的生理学与生态学响应进行了研究，并以此为基础结合疏花水柏枝抢救工程的实施，对疏花水柏枝回归引种的相关生态学问题进行了探讨。 　　疏花水柏枝植株的生殖分配极高，每株所形成的花枝、花序和种子数量都比较多，其种子传播的方式有风传播和水传播，种子直接传播是疏花水柏枝种群进行扩增的主要途径，自然分布疏花水柏枝种群因此而常常成群分布。种子通过江水的二次传播是沿长江呈星状分布的疏花水柏枝各种群间进行基因交流的主要途径。限制疏花水柏枝种子萌发的环境因素主要是土壤含水量，这也是导致该物种在自然条件下仅分布于消落带的关键因素。疏花水柏枝一年生幼苗的成活率以及衡量植株生长状况的生物量、枝条数和根系长度都随着密度的增加而显著下降，表明密度对疏花水柏枝一年生幼苗的定居与生长有明显的制约作用。疏花水柏枝每年夏天都要经历长时间的水淹，在该时期无论是否被水淹，其幼苗地上部的生长都处于停滞（休眠），水淹后植株生物量都有一定程度的减少，但在各种水淹程度处理与对照之间除根深有显著差异外，幼苗的存活率、生物量、一级枝数、一级枝长度、根冠比的差异都不显著，表明水淹对幼苗的定居和生长没有显著影响，疏花水柏枝是通过快速的生物量丧失和快速恢复来适应水淹阶段的环境胁迫的。夏季适当的水淹不仅不会影响植株的生长，反而有利于该物种躲避这个阶段河滩上的高温天气，提高幼苗的成活率。 　　疏花水柏枝对水淹的生理生态适应机制较复杂。夏季水淹过后，植株进入生长恢复阶段，恢复初期植株的日均蒸腾强度与日均光合速率随着其在夏季被淹没时间的增加而增加，说明夏季水淹有利于植株尽快恢复生长。生长季节的水淹胁迫会使疏花水柏枝植株最初的光合作用和蒸腾作用的能力有所下降，但是长期水淹后，植株会形成适应，其光合与水分生理又会恢复到正常状态。疏花水柏枝植株也会在生理生化上对水淹胁迫作出响应。在夏天洪水季节无论是否被水淹，植株的可溶性糖总糖与蔗糖的都含量上升，根系活力、丙二醛（MDA）含量、过氧化物酶(POD)活性、多酚氧化酶(PPO)活性在各种水淹处理与对照之间以及淹水后与淹水前之间没有显著差异，从生理上表明疏花水柏枝的生长在夏季处于生长停滞（休眠）状态，其生理生化变化是植株对休眠的响应。夏天洪水季节结束后，各处理植株的多酚氧化酶活性、过氧化物酶活性、蔗糖与总糖含量在生长恢复阶段显著下降，丙二醛含量、根系活力则分别有所增加，表明植株在生理生化上也得到恢复，且植株在夏季是否受水淹胁迫对生长恢复阶段植株的生理生化变化没有显著影响。生长阶段的水淹胁迫会导致丙二醛含量、多酚氧化酶、过氧化物酶活性上升，其中前两者的变化显著，而根系活力、可溶性总糖含量则在水淹后表现为下降。但是经长期水淹后，各种生理生化指标会逐渐恢复到正常水平，表明该物种对水淹的适应能力较强，水淹并不会对植株形成长期的生理压力。 　　疏花水柏枝被回归引种于长江三峡的几个主要支流上，形成几个相对隔离的重建种群。种群遗传多样性、年龄结构、分布格局、繁殖与扩展等生物学特性是种群持续发展的基础，疏花水柏枝种群的重建中必须予以考虑。各移栽点应分别从不同的地点采集移栽材料，且以生长旺盛、繁殖力强、遗传性状稳定的3-10年植株为主。在疏花水柏枝种群恢复与重建中目前所面临的主要问题是如何增强被隔离的种群间的基因交流、促进种群的种子扩散与萌发、协调新建种群与当地物种的关系、营造有利于新建种群定居与生长的生态环境。

三峡水库蓄水对消落带土壤理化性状的影响

三峡水利枢纽工程的调度运行导致水库水位的涨落，从而在三峡水库周边水陆交错带形成周期性淹没与出露于水面的一段特殊区域，被称为三峡水库消落带。三峡水库消落带生态系统的健康是库岸稳定和水库安全运行的重要保障。土壤养分是三峡库区消落带土壤生态系统的重要组成部分。三峡水库蓄水以来，土壤理化性状发生改变，水土流失日益加剧。土壤是植物的基础，因此，对三峡水库消落带土壤性状的研究对消落带植被恢复有一定的指导意义，也为研究水库消落带水土流失提供依据，为研究水库消落带土壤污染与水体污染提供基础。 本文首先通过对重庆忠县石宝寨水库消落带不同水位、不同时期的表层土壤分析，研究了消落带不同水位土壤容重、酸碱度、有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾、硝态氮、氨态氮、速效磷、速效钾的含量变化。实验结果表明：（1）消落带土壤淹水前各测定指标在不同海拔高程之间的差异均不显著（P>0.05）；（2）三峡水库淹水后消落带土壤由微碱性变为碱性，养分平均含量普遍下降，土壤养分缺乏，淹水易造成养分流失；（3）不同淹水强度下，土壤pH 值、有机质、全氮、全磷、氨态氮、速效钾平均含量差异显著（P＜0.001），经过淹水土壤有机质、全氮、速效钾含量进一步降低；（4）不同淹水时期，土壤全钾、硝态氮、氨态氮平均含量差异显著（P＜0.001），速效氮含量随季节变化较大，与土壤水分有密切关系；（5）干湿交替更容易造成氮、磷解吸释放入水体，从而增加富营养化的风险。 其次，通过对石宝寨消落带5 个时间段6个水位的表层土壤分析，研究了消落带不同时期、不同淹水强度土壤酸碱度及Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr 的含量变化。结果表明（1）淹水土壤pH 显著高于未淹水土壤，长期淹水土壤重金属含量显著高于短期淹水土壤与未淹水土壤，146m 土壤重金属含量最高；（2）经过淹水土壤，pH 先升高后下降，铜含量、锌含量都下降，铬含量先上升后下降，铅含量随着土壤暴露先稍微上升，后又下降，但在08 年9 月达到最大值；（3）各土壤重金属之间均存在显著相关关系，表明三峡消落带土壤存在重金属复合污染隐患；（ 4 ） 以三峡水库土壤背景值为评价标准， 消落带土壤污染程度具有Cu>Pb>Zn>Cr 的特征，其中，铜污染相对最为严重，消落带土壤随着淹水强度的加大与淹水时间的延长，污染程度加重，消落带综合污染指数达到1.24，属于轻度污染级。

小麦光系统I的分离纯化及其光合特性的研究

从不同基因型的小麦京411和小偃54中分离纯化了PSI颗粒并研究了PSI颗粒的一些光合特性： 1. 测定了两种基因型小麦PSI颗粒的室温吸收光谱、低温荧光光谱，并进行了SDS-PAGE多肽分析。吸收光谱显示了红区680nm和蓝区439nm的两个最大吸收峰，低温荧光光谱显示了PSI特征的位于735nm左右的发射峰，同时SDS-PAGE也显示我们的制备物包括PsaA、PsaB、LHCI以及一些其它小分子量蛋白亚基。这些都表明我们从不同基因型小麦中获得了比较理想的PSI颗粒制备物。 2. 测定了京411类囊体膜和PSI颗粒的脂类组成和脂肪酸成分，发现PSI颗粒中也存在着类囊体膜中的五种膜脂，即：MGDG、DGDG、PG、SQDG、PC，但PSI颗粒的MGDG含量比类囊体膜高，而DGDG含量较类囊体低。PSI颗粒和类囊体膜的脂肪酸组成也有差异。 3. 运用光谱学手段，研究两种基因型小麦PSI颗粒光破坏过程的异同。发现在经过强光破坏后，两种小麦PSI颗粒都发生叶绿素漂白现象，在各种状态叶绿素中，683nm状态的Chl a对强光最为敏感，受到光破坏的程度最大，而649nm Chl b和667nm Chl a分子变化较小。结合吸收光谱和低温荧光光谱我们提出了PSI中可能存在的能量传递途径。比较两种小麦PSI颗粒光破坏在低温荧光光谱上的不同，我们初步认为，小偃54可能通过将能量较多地分配给予长波长Chl而一定程度的避免过多能量向P700反应中心传递，从而起到对P700的保护作用。 4. 研究了不同表面活性剂SDS和Triton X-100对PSI颗粒色素结合状态和能量传递的影响。发现表面活性剂对色素状态和PSI中的能量传递都有很大的影响。并且Triton X-100的作用较SDS强烈。紫外荧光显示PSI蛋白结构也发生了显著变化。