Managed livestock grazing is compatible with the maintenance of plant diversity in semidesert grasslands

Even when no baseline data are available, the impacts of 150 years of livestock grazing on natural grasslands can be assessed using a combined approach of grazing manipulation and regional-scale assessment of the flora. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of this method across 18 sites in the semidesert Mitchell grasslands of northeastern Australia. Fifteen-year-old exclosures (ungrazed and macropod grazed) revealed that the dominant perennial grasses in the genus Astrebla do not respond negatively to grazing disturbance typical of commercial pastoralism. Neutral, positive, intermediate, and negative responses to grazing disturbance were recorded amongst plant species with no single life-form group associated with any response type. Only one exotic species, Cenchrus ciliaris, was recorded at low frequency. The strongest negative response was from a native annual grass, Chionachne hubbardiana, an example of a species that is highly sensitive to grazing disturbance. Herbarium records revealed only scant evidence that species with a negative response to grazing have declined through the period of commercial pastoralism. A regional analysis identified 14 from a total of 433 plant species in the regional flora that may be rare and potentially threatened by grazing disturbance. However, a targeted survey precluded grazing as a cause of decline for seven of these based on low palatability and positive responses to grazing and other disturbance. Our findings suggest that livestock grazing of semidesert grasslands with a short evolutionary history of ungulate grazing has altered plant composition, but has not caused declines in the dominant perennial grasses or in species richness as predicted by the preceding literature. The biggest impact of commercial pastoralism is the spread of woody leguminous trees that can transform grassland to thorny shrubland. The conservation of plant biodiversity is largely compatible with commercial pastoralism provided these woody weeds are controlled, but reserves strategically positioned within water remote areas are necessary to protect grazing-sensitive species. This study demonstrates that a combination of experimental studies and regional surveys can be used to understand anthropogenic impacts on natural ecosystems where reference habitat is not available.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.

Assessing agronomic and environmental implications of different N fertilisation strategies in subtropical grain cropping systems on Oxisols

A multi-season 15N tracer recovery experiment was conducted on an Oxisol cropped with wheat, maize and sorghum to compare crop N recoveries of different fertilisation strategies and determine the main pathways of N losses that limit N recovery in these agroecosystems. In the wheat and maize seasons, 15N-labelled fertiliser was applied as conventional urea (CONV) and urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor (DMPP). In sorghum, the fate of 15N-labelled urea was monitored in this crop following a legume ley pasture (L70) or a grass ley pasture (G100). The fertiliser N applied to sorghum in the legume-cereal rotation was reduced (70 kg N ha−1) compared to the grass-cereal (100 kg N ha−1) to assess the availability of the N residual from the legume ley pasture. Average crop N recoveries were 73 % (CONV) and 77 % (DMPP) in wheat and 50 % (CONV) and 51 % (DMPP) in maize, while in sorghum were 71 % (L70) and 53 % (G100). Data gathered in this study indicate that the intrinsic physical and chemical conditions of Oxisols can be extremely effective in limiting N losses via deep leaching or denitrification. Elevated crop 15N recoveries can be therefore obtained in subtropical Oxisols using conventional urea while in these agroecosystems DMPP urea has no significant scope to increase fertiliser N recovery in the crop. Overall, introducing a legume phase to limit the fertiliser N requirements of the following cereal crop proved to be the most effective strategy to reduce N losses and increase fertiliser N recovery.

Evolution of sexual segregation in mammalian herbivores: kangaroos as marsupial models

Sexual segregation is best known in sexually dimorphic ungulates. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of sexual segregation in ungulates, but all are reducible to the influence of two factors: body size and sex-specific reproductive strategy. Definitive tests of these hypotheses are lacking in ungulates because these factors are confounded, all males being somewhat larger than females. Kangaroos represent a parallel radiation of terrestrial herbivores, but their populations are composed of a spectrum of adult body sizes, ranging from small males the same size as females to large males more than twice the size. We exploited this heteromorphism to assess the independent influences of size and sex in these ungulate analogues. We conducted a preliminary study of western grey kangaroos (Macropus fuliginosus) in north-western Victoria, Australia. Adult males predominately occupied grassland habitat, whereas females occurred mostly in lakebed, woodland and shrubland. Single-sex groups occurred more often than expected during the non-mating season. The diet of large males had the highest proportion of grass, and females had the least. These initial results indicate that both size and sex influence segregation in this species, confirming the worth of kangaroos as marsupial models for research into the evolution of sexual segregation.

Development and parameterization of a rain- and fire-driven model for exploring elephant effects in African savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Leaf and inflorescence structure and phylogenetics of Tripogon and affiliated genera (Poaceae: Chloridoideae)

This thesis provides new knowledge on an understudied group of grasses, some of which are resurrection grasses (i.e. able to withstand extreme drought). The sole Australian species (Tripogon loliiformis) is morphologically diverse and could be more than one species. This study sought to determine how many species of Tripogon occur in Australia, their relationships to other species in the genus and to two other genera of resurrection grasses (Eragrostiella and Oropetium). Results of the research indicate there is not enough evidence, from DNA sequence data, to warrant splitting up T. loliiformis into multiple species. The extensive morphological diversity seems to be influenced by environmental conditions. The three genera are so closely related that they could be grouped into a single genus. This new knowledge opens up pathways for future investigations, including studying genes responsible for desiccation tolerance and the conservation of native grasses that occur in rocky habitats.

Sudanese perspectives on resettlement in Australia

Resettlement programmes for people from a refugee background must respond to a variety of concerns as people from diverse backgrounds and often long-standing periods of upheaval and hardship enter their new resettlement communities. Host countries approach the demands of resettlement through varying programmes and policies and those differences across countries can profoundly affect the newcomers’ experiences. The current study employs quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the individual and contextual factors that influence the resettlement experience for adults from Sudan being resettled in Queensland, Australia. Ninety Sudanese adults were recruited through snowball sampling techniques for the quantitative study, with 10 individuals purposefully selected to complete the semi-structured qualitative interview. In the quantitative sample, 25 to 30% of participants reported significant symptoms of psychological distress and frequent experiences of discrimination, and the majority of participants reported integration (identifying with both Australian and Sudanese cultures) as their method of acculturation. Participants reported feeling initially welcomed into Australia, with positive influences including bonding and bridging capital which helped them in their adaptation and negative influences including problems with the resettlement programmes and experiences of discrimination. The findings underscore the importance of socio-political context on refugee experiences of the resettlement process.

IgE+ B cells are scarce, but allergen-specific B cells with a memory phenotype circulate in patients with allergic rhinitis

Background Despite the critical role of immunoglobulin E (IgE) in allergy, circulating IgE+ B cells are scarce. Here, we describe in patients with allergic rhinitis B cells with a memory phenotype responding to a prototypic aeroallergen. Methods Fifteen allergic rhinitis patients with grass pollen allergy and 13 control subjects were examined. Blood mononuclear cells stained with carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFSE) were cultured with Bahia grass pollen. Proliferation and phenotype were assessed by multicolour flow cytometry. Results In blood of allergic rhinitis patients with high serum IgE to grass pollen, most IgEhi cells were CD123+ HLA-DR- basophils, with IgE for the major pollen allergen (Pas n 1). Both B and T cells from pollen-allergic donors showed higher proliferation to grass pollen than nonallergic donors (P = 0.002, and 0.010, respectively), whereas responses to vaccine antigens and mitogen did not differ between groups. Allergen-driven B cells that divided rapidly (CD19mid CD3- CFSElo) showed higher CD27 (P = 0.008) and lower CD19 (P = 0.004) and CD20 (P = 0.004) expression than B cells that were slow to respond to allergen (CD19hi CD3- CFSEmid). Moreover, rapidly dividing allergen-driven B cells (CD19mid CFSElo CD27hi) showed higher expression of the plasmablast marker CD38 compared with B cells (CD19hi CFSEmid CD27lo) that were slow to divide. Conclusion Patients with pollen allergy but not control donors have a population of circulating allergen-specific B cells with the phenotype and functional properties of adaptive memory B-cell responses. These cells could provide precursors for allergen-specific IgE production upon allergen re-exposure. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Specific IgE recognition of pollen allergens from subtropic grasses in patients from the subtropics

Background Pollens of subtropical grasses, Bahia (Paspalum notatum), Johnson (Sorghum halepense), and Bermuda (Cynodon dactylon), are common causes of respiratory allergies in subtropical regions worldwide. Objective To evaluate IgE cross-reactivity of grass pollen (GP) found in subtropical and temperate areas. Methods Case and control serum samples from 83 individuals from the subtropical region of Queensland were tested for IgE reactivity with GP extracts by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A randomly sampled subset of 21 serum samples from patients with subtropical GP allergy were examined by ImmunoCAP and cross-inhibition assays. Results Fifty-four patients with allergic rhinitis and GP allergy had higher IgE reactivity with P notatum and C dactylon than with a mixture of 5 temperate GPs. For 90% of 21 GP allergic serum samples, P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon specific IgE concentrations were higher than temperate GP specific IgE, and GP specific IgE had higher correlations of subtropical GP (r = 0.771-0.950) than temperate GP (r = 0.317-0.677). In most patients (71%-100%), IgE with P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon GPs was inhibited better by subtropical GP than temperate GP. When the temperate GP mixture achieved 50% inhibition of IgE with subtropical GP, there was a 39- to 67-fold difference in concentrations giving 50% inhibition and significant differences in maximum inhibition for S halepense and P notatum GP relative to temperate GP. Conclusion Patients living in a subtropical region had species specific IgE recognition of subtropical GP. Most GP allergic patients in Queensland would benefit from allergen specific immunotherapy with a standardized content of subtropical GP allergens.

Use of phage display technology to investigate allergen-antibody interactions

Phage display is an advanced technology that can be used to characterize the interactions of antibody with antigen at the molecular level. It provides valuable data when applied to the investigation of IgE interaction with allergens. The aim of this rostrum article is to provide an explanation of the potential of phage display for increasing the understanding of allergen- IgE interaction, the discovery of diagnostic reagents, and the development of novel therapeutics for the treatment of allergic disease. The significance of initial studies that have applied phage display technology in allergy research will be highlighted. Phage display has been used to clone human IgE to timothy grass pollen allergen Phl p 5, to characterize the epitopes for murine and human antibodies to a birch pollen allergen Bet v 1, and to elucidate the epitopes of a murine mAb to the house dust mite allergen Der p 1. The technology has identified peptides that functionally mimic sites of human IgE constant domains and that were used to raise antiserum for blocking binding of IgE to the FcεRI on basophils and subsequent release of histamine. Phage display has also been used to characterize novel peanut and fungal allergens. The method has been used to increase our understanding of the molecular basis of allergen-IgE interactions and to develop clinically relevant reagents with the pharmacologic potential to block the effector phase of allergic reactions. Many advances from these early studies are likely as phage display technology evolves and allergists gain expertise in its research applications.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index