An empirical analysis of the money demand function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s money demand function during the period of 1980 to 2007 using monthly data and the period of 1976 to 2007 using annual data. Cointegration test results indicated that when money supply is represented by M1 and M2, a cointegrating vector is detected among real money balances, interest rates, and output. In contrast, it was found that when money supply is represented by M3, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship in the　money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using　dynamic OLS, the sign onditions of the coefficients of output and interest rates were found to be　consistent with theoretical rationale, and statistical significance was confirmed when money supply was represented by either M1 or M2. Consequently, though India’s central bank presently uses M3 as an indicator of future price movements, it is thought appropriate to focus on M1 or M2, rather than M3, in managing monetary policy.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Inflation targeting in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines : the impact on business cycle synchronization between each country and the world

This paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has affected their business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world. By employing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model developed by Engle (2002), we find that IT in Asia has little effect on international business cycle synchronization and the effect is positive in some of the countries, if any. These findings basically seem to be consistent with the evidence from relevant literature.

The asset/liability structure of the Philippine banks and non-bank financial institutions in 2000s : a preliminary study for financial access analyses

Based on the consolidated statements data of the universal/commercial banks (UKbank) and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking licenses, this paper presents a keen necessity of obtaining data in detail on both sides (assets and liabilities) of their financial conditions and further analyses. Those would bring more adequate assessments on the Philippine financial system, especially with regard to each financial subsector's financing/lending preferences and behavior. The paper also presents a possibility that the skewed locational and operational distribution exists in the non-UKbank financial subsectors. It suggests there may be a significant deviation from the authorities' (the BSP, SEC and others) intended/anticipated financial system in the banking/non-bank financial institutions' real operations.

Deposit dollarization in Myanmar

Myanmar has peculiar conditions of deposit dollarization that were shaped by administrative controls. On the one hand, restrictive controls encouraged the accumulation of foreign currency deposits (FCD). On the other hand, foreign currency loans (FCL) were not practiced officially; therefore, FCD was not utilized for credit. Given the adverse effects and persistence of dollarization in other dollarized economies and the recent recovery of local currency deposits in Myanmar, this paper opts for the prohibition of FCL and offers policy measures for de-dollarization.

Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

La financiación y la inversión inmobiliaria : repercusiones en el urbanismo y la arquitectura

El presente trabajo de tesis doctoral tiene por finalidad demostrar que las decisiones de financiación y de inversión inmobiliaria en España influyen de manera determinante en la configuración del proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico. Este planteamiento inicial obliga a formular las siguientes cuestiones: - En una primera fase, la situación en España del sector inmobiliario y su relación con el sector financiero en el contexto de la actual crisis financiera, iniciada en el año 2008. - Los métodos de análisis y selección de inversiones y su aplicación a los proyectos de inversión en función de la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. - La valoración inmobiliaria para determinadas entidades financieras. - Características de la gestión financiera empresarial y de las empresas inmobiliarias. - El origen de fondos para financiar el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico mediante las instituciones de inversión colectiva inmobiliaria y el mercado inmobiliario. - La regulación actual en España, a nivel estatal, del suelo como materia prima del sector inmobiliario. - La edificación residencial y el mercado inmobiliario en el actual contexto económico. - La posibilidad de crear en España un mercado de derivados basado en activos inmobiliarios. - Cómo repercute la actividad económica, a través de la inversión y la financiación, en los activos inmobiliarios, en el urbanismo y la arquitectura. Las cuestiones precedentes se resuelven de forma sistemática y metodológica en esta tesis doctoral estructurada en tres grandes bloques (inversión, financiación y repercusiones en el urbanismo y la arquitectura), obteniendo una serie de respuestas reflejadas en el desarrollo del presente trabajo que se sintetizan en las siguientes líneas: - La actual crisis financiera iniciada en el año 2008 ha provocado en España el colapso del sector inmobiliario y una nueva concepción en la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. El sector inmobiliario trae causa del sector financiero, en especial del crédito bancario. - Dependencia y vinculación del sector inmobiliario español de la política monetaria europea: la incorporación de España a la moneda única transforma por completo el sector inmobiliario español. - Los métodos de análisis y selección de inversiones se conforman como instrumentos relevantes que nos permiten jerarquizar nuestros proyectos. No obstante, presentan una serie de limitaciones y dificultades de aplicación práctica, por lo que no deben considerarse como herramientas que nos aporten una única solución irrefutable. - La valoración de activos inmobiliarios se constituye en un pilar básico que fundamenta la correcta aplicación de los fondos. - La inversión en activos inmobiliarios puede realizarse de forma directa o indirecta. En este último supuesto, con una influencia relevante de las innovaciones financieras surgidas en los últimos años. - Las instituciones de inversión colectiva y el mercado hipotecario constituyen instituciones fundamentales capaces de captar importantes cantidades de fondos que impulsan y financian el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico. - El complejo y cambiante sistema jurídico español en materia de suelo, dificulta la implementación de los procesos urbanísticos y arquitectónicos. - Tras la crisis financiera de 2008, los activos inmobiliarios tienen un comportamiento similar a otros activos en cuanto a subidas y bajadas de precios. En el actual sistema económico, la especulación forma parte inherente a la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. - Desde una perspectiva teórica, existe la posibilidad de crear un mercado de derivados que tenga como subyacente activos de naturaleza inmobiliaria. - Sin actividad económica, el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico carecerá finalmente de sentido y tenderá a desaparecer. No obstante, son las innovaciones tecnológicas, a nivel de producto y proceso, las principales causantes del impulso de la actividad económica. - A pesar de lo expresado en los documentos urbanísticos internacionales, la transformación del urbanismo y la arquitectura dependen principalmente de la actividad económica y la tecnología. En un segundo nivel, la inversión y la financiación condicionan y definen el urbanismo y la arquitectura, incluso a nivel de proyecto si se pretende su materialización. En base al desarrollo previo, el objetivo fundamental de esta tesis doctoral ha sido demostrar que las decisiones de financiación y de inversión tienen una importancia capital y determinan la configuración de los activos inmobiliario, del urbanismo y la arquitectura, por lo que deben ser tenidas en cuenta no sólo en su materialización sino incluso en la propia concepción del proceso creativo. ABSTRACT The present dissertation aims to show that real estate financing and investment decisions in Spain play a predominant role in structuring urban development and architectural solutions. The issues addressed to support that contention include: - As a preliminary study, the situation of the real estate industry in Spain and its relationship to the financial sector in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. - The methods used to analyse and select investments and their application to investment projects, by type of real estate asset. - Appraisal of certain financial institutions’ real estate asset holdings. - Characteristics of financial institution and real estate company corporate management. - Sourcing funds for financing urban development and architecture through real estate investment trusts and the real estate market. - Present nation-wide regulations on landed property in Spain as a raw material for the real estate industry. - Residential building construction and the real estate market in the present economic context. - The possibility of creating a real estate asset-based derivatives market in Spain - The impact of economic activity, through investment and financing, on real estate assets, urban development and architecture. The aforementioned issues are addressed systematically and methodically in this dissertation, which is divided into three major units: investment, financing, and impact on urban development and architecture. The conclusions drawn are summarised below. - The financial crisis that began in 2008 has induced the collapse of the Spanish real estate industry and spawned a new perception of the nature of real estate assets. The real estate industry is dependent upon the financial sector, in particular on bank loans. - The Spanish real estate industry also depends on and is related to European monetary policy: Spain’s adherence to the single currency ushered in a thorough overhaul of its real estate industry. - Investment analysis and selection methods constitute highly suitable tools for project evaluation and ranking. Nonetheless, inasmuch as their practical implementation is subject to a series of limitations and difficulties, they should not be thought able to deliver a single irrefutable solution. - Real estate asset appraisal is a mainstay to the rightful application of funds. - Real estate asset investments can be made directly or indirectly. The latter approach is heavily influenced by the financial innovations forthcoming in recent years. - Investment trusts and the mortgage market are key institutions able to raise substantial funding, thereby driving and financing urban development and architecture. - Spain’s complex and changing legal provisions on land management are an obstacle to urban development and architecture. - Since the 2008 crisis, real estate assets have behaved much like other assets in terms of rising and falling prices. In the present economic context, speculation is indivisible from real estate assets. - Theoretically speaking, a derivatives market with real estate holdings as the underlying assets lies within the realm of possibility. - In the absence of economic activity, urban development and architecture are senseless pursuits and tend to disappear. Technological innovation in products and processes are the main drivers of economic activity. - Despite the opinion expressed in international papers on the subject, the transformation of urban development and architecture depend primarily on economic activity and technology. In a second dimension, investment and financing condition and define urban development and architecture, even at the design level for projects aspiring to actual construction. Pursuant to the foregoing, the primary aim of this dissertation is to show that financial and investment decisions are of cardinal importance and determine the structure of real estate assets, urban development and architecture. They must consequently be borne in mind not only in connection with implementation, but also with conceptual design and the creative process itself. I

spotlight europe #2012/07 — Dezember 2012: Die Union gegen die Banken = The Union against the banks

No abstract.

The austerity debate is beside the point for Europe. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

In surveying the heated debate in the eurozone about austerity and the cost of high public debt, this CEPS Commentary suggests that the influential paper by Carmen Reinhard and Kenneth Rogoff misses the key point that public debt owed to foreigners is different from debt owed to residents.

The Euro Crisis, the Other Crisis and the Need for Global Thinking

In addition to the euro crisis the EU faces a second, more existential crisis, in the form of an ill-defined notion of the Union’s global role. This contribution argues that the euro crisis should not redefine perceptions of the EU on the global stage, which it is in danger of doing. Instead, the EU and its members should embark upon a strategic reassessment in order to define three core interrelated factors. First, the nature of the EU’s actorness remains ill-defined and it is therefore necessary to explain, both within and beyond the Union, what its global role is. Second, in order to facilitate the joining up of the myriad of sub-strategies in EU external relations, the notion of ‘red lines’ should be considered which define specific aspects of behaviour that are mainstreamed throughout the EU’s external actions and, more importantly, upheld. Third, in spite of the rapid development of the harder elements of the EU’s actorness over the last decade or so, there remains a worrying gap between rhetoric and reality. This aspect is of particular concern for the United States and will affect perceptions of the EU’s ability to be a genuine strategic partner at a time of dramatic change in the international system. By engaging in what will inevitably be a difficult debate, the EU and its members will not only help give purpose and strategic direction to the Union’s actions on the international scene, it will also speak to the euro crisis since both are fundamentally about the future shape and direction of European integration.

Europe's Ungainly Banking Revolution. CEPS Commentaries, 24 March 2014

In assessing the compromise agreement reached on March 20th on how to deal with banks in difficulty in the eurozone, Daniel Gros finds that the Single Resolution Fund represents an awkward step in the right direction in that it leaves as many problems unresolved as it addresses. But the end result is likely to be quite strong, because it establishes a key innovation: a common fund that effectively mutualises much of the risk resulting from bank failures.

Inflation-Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Performance since the Great Recession. CEPS Working Document No. 394, March 2014

Has inflation targeting (IT) conferred benefits in terms of economic growth on countries that followed this particular monetary policy strategy during the crisis period 2007-12? This paper answers this question in the affirmative. Countries with an IT monetary regime with flexible exchange rates weathered the crisis much better than countries with other monetary regimes, predominantly countries with fixed exchange rates. Part of this difference in growth performance reflects differences in export performance during the initial years of the crisis, which in turn can be explained by real exchange rate depreciations. However, IT seems also to confer other benefits on the countries above and beyond the effects from currency depreciation.

Fighting Deflation: Would QE work in the euro area? CEPS Commentary, 9 October 2014

With inflation in the eurozone stubbornly remaining on a downward trajectory, pressure is growing on the ECB to do “something” to prevent outright deflation. But, given the financial structure of eurozone countries, would the preferred "something" – quantitative easing – actually do the trick?

Designing a Genuine EMU: Which "Unions" for EU and Eurozone? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 34/2014

The initial ‘framing’ (in the summer of 2012) of the ‘genuine EMU’ for the wider public suggested to design an entire series of ‘unions’. So many ‘unions’ are neither necessary nor desirable – only some are and their design matters. The paper critically discusses first the negative fall-out of the crisis for EMU, and subsequently assesses the fiscal and the banking unions as accomplished so far, without going into highly specific technical details. The assessment is moderately positive, although there is ample scope for further improvement and a risk for short-term turbulence once the ECB has finished its tests and reviews. What about the parade of other ’unions’ such as economic union, social union and political union? The macro-economic imbalances procedure (MIP) and possibly the ESRB have overcome the pre-crisis disregard of macro competitiveness. The three components of ‘economic union’ (single market, economic policy coordination and budgetary disciplines) have all been strengthened. The last two ‘unions’, on the other hand, would imply a fundamental change in the conferral of powers to the EU/ Eurozone, with drastic and possibly very serious long-run implications, including a break-up of the Union, if such proposals would be pushed through. The cure is worse than the disease. Whereas social union is perhaps easier to dismiss as a ‘misfit’ in the EU, the recent popularity of suggesting a ‘political union’ is seen as worrisome. Probably, nobody knows what a ‘political union’ is, or, at best, it is a highly elastic notion: it might be thought necessary for reasons of domestic economic reforms in EU countries, for a larger common budget, for some EU tax power, for (greater) risk pooling, for ‘symmetric’ macro-economic adjustment and for some ultimate control of the ECB in times of crisis. Taking each one of these arguments separately, a range of more typical EU solutions might be found without suggesting a ‘political union’. Just as ‘fiscal capacity’ was long an all-or-nothing taboo for shifting bank resolution to the EU level, now solved with a modest common Fund and carefully confined but centralised powers, the author suggests that other carefully targeted responses can be designed for the various aspects where seen as indispensable, including the political say of a lender-of-last-resort function of the ECB. Hence, neither a social nor a political union worthy of the name ought to be pursued. Yet, political legitimacy matters, both with national parliaments and the grassroots. National parliaments will have to play a larger role.