Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

Catching up with competitiveness in emerging markets – An analysis of the role of the firm’s technology management strategies

Emerging markets have experienced rapid economic growth, and manufacturing firms have had to face the effects of globalisation. Some of the major emerging economies have been able to create a supportive business environment that fosters innovation, and China is a good example of a country that has been able to increase value-added investments. Conversely, when we look at Russia, another big emerging market, we witness a situation in which domestic firms struggle more with global competitiveness. Innovation has proven to be one of the most essential ingredients for firms aiming to grow and become more competitive. In emerging markets, the business environment sets many constraints for innovation. However, open strategic choices in new product development enable companies in emerging markets to expand their resource base and capability building. Networking and close inter-firm cooperation are essential in this regard. In this dissertation, I argue that technology transfer is one of the key tools for these companies to become internationally networked and to improve their competitiveness. It forces companies to reach outside the company and national borders, which in many cases, is a major challenge for firms in emerging markets. This dissertation focuses on how companies can catch up with competitiveness in emerging markets. The empirical studies included in the dissertation are based on analyses of survey data mainly of firms and their strategies in the Russian manufacturing industry. The dissertation contributes to the current strategic management literature by further investigating technology management strategies in manufacturing firms in emerging markets and the benefits of more open approaches to new product development and innovation.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

International Entrepreneurship in Bottom of the Pyramid Markets – Overcoming institutional constraints

Bottom of the pyramid (BoP) markets are an underserved market of approximately four billion people living on under $5 a day in four regional areas: Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. According to estimations, the BoP market forms a $5 trillion global consumer market. Despite the potential of BoP markets, companies have traditionally focused on serving the markets of developed countries and ignored the large customer group at the bottom of the pyramid. The BoP approach as first developed by Prahalad and Hart in 2002 has focused on multinational corporations (MNCs), which were thought of as the ones who should take responsibility in serving the customers at the bottom of the pyramid. This study challenges this proposition and gives evidence that also smaller international new ventures – entrepreneurial firms that are international from their birth, can be successful in BoP markets. BoP markets are characterized by a number of deficiencies in the institutional environment such as strong reliance on informal sector, lack of infrastructure and lack of skilled labor. The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of international entrepreneurship in BoP markets by analyzing how international new ventures overcome institutional constraints in BoP markets and how institutional uncertainty can be exploited by solving institutional problems. The main objective is divided into four sub objectives. • To describe the opportunities and challenges BoP markets present • To analyze the internationalization of INVs to BoP markets • To examine what kinds of strategies international entrepreneurs use to overcome institutional constraints • To explore the opportunities institutional uncertainty offers for INVs Qualitative approach was used to conduct this study and multiple-case study was chosen as a research strategy in order to allow cross-case analysis. The empirical data was collected through four interviews with the companies Fuzu, Mifuko, Palmroth Consulting and Sibesonke. The results indicated that understanding of the wider institutional environment improves the survival prospects of INVs in BoP markets and that it is indeed possible to exploit institutional uncertainty by solving institutional problems. The main findings were that first-hand experience of the markets and grassroots levels of information are the best assets in internationalization to BoP markets. This study highlights that international entrepreneurs with limited resources can improve the lives of people at the BoP with their business operations and act as small-scale institutional entrepreneurs contributing to the development of the institutional environment of BoP markets.

Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.

Irrigation scheduling for Sovereign Coronation grapevine based upon evapotranspiration calculations and crop coefficients /

Several irrigation treatments were evaluated on Sovereign Coronation table grapes at two sites over a 3-year period in the cool humid Niagara Peninsula of Ontario. Trials were conducted in the Hippie (Beamsville, ON) and the Lambert Vineyards (Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON) in 2003 to 2005 with the objective of assessing the usefulness of the modified Penman-Monteith equation to accurately schedule vine irrigation needs. Data (relative humidity, windspeed, solar radiation, and temperature) required to precisely calculate evapotranspiration (ETq) were downloaded from the Ontario Weather Network. One of two ETq values (either 100 or 150%) were used in combination with one of two crop coefficients (Kc; either fixed at 0.75 or 0.2 to 0.8 based upon increasing canopy volume) to calculate the amount of irrigation water required. Five irrigation treatments were: un irrigated control; (lOOET) X Kc =0.75; 150ET X Kc =0.75; lOOET X Kc =0.2-0.8; 150ET X Kc =0.2-0.8. Transpiration, water potential (v|/), and soil moisture data were collected each growing seasons. Yield component data was collected and berries from each treatment were analyzed for soluble solids (Brix), pH, titratable acidity (TA), anthocyanins, methyl anthranilate (MA), and total volatile esters (TVE). Irrigation showed a substantial positive effect on transpiration rate and soil moisture; the control treatment showed consistently lower transpiration and soil moisture over the 3 seasons. Transpiration appeared accurately reflect Sovereign Coronation grapevines water status. Soil moisture also accurately reflected level of irrigation. Moreover, irrigation showed impact of leaf \|/, which was more negative throughout the 3 seasons for vines that were not irrigated. Irrigation had a substantial positive effect on yield (kg/vine) and its various components (clusters/vine, cluster weight, and berries/cluster) in 2003 and 2005. Berry weights were higher under the irrigated treatments at both sites. Berry weight consistently appeared to be the main factor leading to these increased yields, as inconsistent responses were noted for some yield variables. Soluble solids was highest under the ET150 and ET100 treatments both with Kc at 0.75. Both pH and TA were highest under control treatments in 2003 and 2004, but highest under irrigated treatments in 2005. Anthocyanins and phenols were highest under the control treatments in 2003 and 2004, but highest under irrigated treatments in 2005. MA and TVE were highest under the ET150 treatments. Vine and soil water status measurements (soil moisture, leaf \|/, and transpiration) confirmed that irrigation was required for the summers of 2003 and 2005 due to dry weather in those years. They also partially supported the hypothesis that the Penman-Monteith equation is useful for calculating vineyard water needs. Both ET treatments gave clear evidence that irrigation could be effective in reducing water stress and for improving vine performance, yield and fruit composition. Use of properly scheduled irrigation was beneficial for Sovereign Coronation table grapes in the Niagara region. Findings herein should give growers some strong guidehnes on when, how and how much to irrigate their vineyards.

Toronto Sovereign Chapter Rose Croix

The Toronto Sovereign Chapter Rose Croix of the Toronto Valley of the Scottish Rite was established in Toronto, Ont. in May 1873.

Statement that Dr. Richard S. King became accountable for a Debt Owed to him by Dilly Coleman

Statement of Frederick Dilke of Port Robinson that Dr. Richard S. King became accountable for a debt owed to him by Dilly Coleman. The debt was assumed by Dr. Richard S. King, Sept. 24, 1850.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.

In Search of Advice for Physicians in Entry-Level Medical Markets

We consider entry-level medical markets for physicians in the United Kingdom. These markets experienced failures which led to the adoption of centralized market mechanisms in the 1960's. However, different regions introduced different centralized mechanisms. We advise physicians who do not have detailed information about the rank-order lists submitted by the other participants. We demonstrate that in each of these markets in a low information environment it is not beneficial to reverse the true ranking of any two acceptable hospital positions. We further show that (i) in the Edinburgh 1967 market, ranking unacceptable matches as acceptable is not profitable for any participant and (ii) in any other British entry-level medical market, it is possible that only strategies which rank unacceptable positions as acceptable are optimal for a physician.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.