Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

The integration of lipid-sensing and anti-inflammatory effects: how the PPARs play a role in metabolic balance

The peroxisomal proliferating-activated receptors (PPARs) are lipid-sensing transcription factors that have a role in embryonic development, but are primarily known for modulating energy metabolism, lipid storage, and transport, as well as inflammation and wound healing. Currently, there is no consensus as to the overall combined function of PPARs and why they evolved. We hypothesize that the PPARs had to evolve to integrate lipid storage and burning with the ability to reduce oxidative stress, as energy storage is essential for survival and resistance to injury/infection, but the latter increases oxidative stress and may reduce median survival (functional longevity). In a sense, PPARs may be an evolutionary solution to something we call the 'hypoxia-lipid' conundrum, where the ability to store and burn fat is essential for survival, but is a 'double-edged sword', as fats are potentially highly toxic. Ways in which PPARs may reduce oxidative stress involve modulation of mitochondrial uncoupling protein (UCP) expression (thus reducing reactive oxygen species, ROS), optimising forkhead box class O factor (FOXO) activity (by improving whole body insulin sensitivity) and suppressing NFkB (at the transcriptional level). In light of this, we therefore postulate that inflammation-induced PPAR downregulation engenders many of the signs and symptoms of the metabolic syndrome, which shares many features with the acute phase response (APR) and is the opposite of the phenotype associated with calorie restriction and high FOXO activity. In genetically susceptible individuals (displaying the naturally mildly insulin resistant 'thrifty genotype'), suboptimal PPAR activity may follow an exaggerated but natural adipose tissue-related inflammatory signal induced by excessive calories and reduced physical activity, which normally couples energy storage with the ability to mount an immune response. This is further worsened when pancreatic decompensation occurs, resulting in gluco-oxidative stress and lipotoxicity, increased inflammatory insulin resistance and oxidative stress. Reactivating PPARs may restore a metabolic balance and help to adapt the phenotype to a modern lifestyle.

Effect of low extracellular pH on NF-κB activation in macrophages

Objective: Many diseases, including atherosclerosis, involve chronic inflammation. The master transcription factor for inflammation is NF-κB. Inflammatory sites have a low extracellular pH. Our objective was to demonstrate the effect of pH on NF-κB activation and cytokine secretion. Methods: Mouse J774 macrophages or human THP-1 or monocyte-derived macrophages were incubated at pH 7.0–7.4 and inflammatory cytokine secretion and NF-κB activity were measured. Results: A pH of 7.0 greatly decreased pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion (TNF or IL-6) by J774 macrophages, but not THP-1 or human monocyte-derived macrophages. Upon stimulation of mouse macrophages, the levels of IκBα, which inhibits NF-κB, fell but low pH prevented its later increase, which normally restores the baseline activity of NF-κB, even though the levels of mRNA for IκBα were increased. pH 7.0 greatly increased and prolonged NF-κB binding to its consensus promoter sequence, especially the anti-inflammatory p50:p50 homodimers. Human p50 was overexpressed using adenovirus in THP-1 macrophages and monocyte-derived macrophages to see if it would confer pH sensitivity to NF-κB activity in human cells. Overexpression of p50 increased p50:p50 DNA-binding and in THP-1 macrophages inhibited considerably TNF and IL-6 secretion, but there was still no effect of pH on p50:p50 DNA binding or cytokine secretion. Conclusion: A modest decrease in pH can sometimes have marked effects on NF-κB activation and cytokine secretion and might be one reason to explain why mice normally develop less atherosclerosis than do humans.

Identification of potential drug targets in Salmonella Typhimurium using metabolic modelling and experimental validation

almonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is an established model organism for Gram-negative, intracellular pathogens. Owing to the rapid spread of resistance to antibiotics among this group of pathogens, new approaches to identify suitable target proteins are required. Based on the genome sequence of Salmonella Typhimurium and associated databases, a genome-scale metabolic model was constructed. Output was based on an experimental determination of the biomass of Salmonella when growing in glucose minimal medium. Linear programming was used to simulate variations in energy demand, while growing in glucose minimal medium. By grouping reactions with similar flux responses, a sub-network of 34 reactions responding to this variation was identified (the catabolic core). This network was used to identify sets of one and two reactions, that when removed from the genome-scale model interfered with energy and biomass generation. 11 such sets were found to be essential for the production of biomass precursors. Experimental investigation of 7 of these showed that knock-outs of the associated genes resulted in attenuated growth for 4 pairs of reactions, while 3 single reactions were shown to be essential for growth.

A grounded investigation of Chinese employees' psychological capital

Purpose – This paper explores the “Western” concept of psychological capital in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and highlights critical areas of divergence and notable dimensions of similarity. Design/methodology/approach – This is an empirical study conducted in a wide range of Chinese organisational forms, employing an inductive approach based on critical incident technique. Findings – This research showed that the concept of psychological capital appears to have a degree of applicability and salience in China. A series of dimensions common in Western organisations were found in our research, including Optimism, Creativity, Resiliency, Self-confidence, Forgiveness and Gratitude, Courage and Ambition (Hope). These were found to be common types of psychological capital both in China and in the West. However, the dimensions of Courtesy and Humility (Qian-gong-you-li in Chinese), Self-possession and Sincerity fell into the “different” category. Originality/value – This paper is a first attempt to examine psychological capital in a range of organisational forms and industrial sectors in China using a grounded theory approach. It not only reports various dimensions of Chinese psychological capital, some unique to this research, but also compares and contrasts these dimensions between China and the West, highlighting further research opportunities.

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Acrylamide concentrations in potato crisps in Europe from 2002 to 2011

A dataset of manufacturers' measurements of acrylamide levels in 40,455 samples of fresh sliced potato crisps from 20 European countries for years 2002 to 2011 was compiled. This dataset is by far the largest ever compiled relating to acrylamide levels in potato crisps. Analysis of variance was applied to the data and showed a clear, significant downward trend for mean levels of acrylamide, from 763 +/- 91.1 ng g(-1) (parts per billion) in 2002 to 358 +/- 2.5 ng g(-1) in 2011; this was a decrease of 53% +/- 13.5%. The yearly 95th quantile values were also subject to a clear downward trend. The effect of seasonality arising from the influence of potato storage on acrylamide levels was evident, with acrylamide in the first 6 months of the year being significantly higher than in the second 6 months. The proportion of samples containing acrylamide at a level above the indicative value of 1000ngg(-1) for potato crisps introduced by the European Commission in 2011 fell from 23.8% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2011. Nevertheless, even in 2011, a small proportion of samples still contained high levels of acrylamide, with 0.2% exceeding 2000ngg(-1).

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

Anthropogenic nutrient sources and loads from a Mediterranean catchment into a coastal lagoon: Mar Menor, Spain

The Mar Menor is a coastal lagoon increasingly threatened by urban and agricultural pressures. The main watercourse draining into the lagoon is the Rambla del Albujón. A fortnightly campaign carried out over one annual cycle enabled us to characterize the treated urban sewage effluents and agricultural sources which contribute to the nutrient fluxes in the watercourse. Multivariate analysis provided information for establishing chemical signatures and for assessing the relative influence of the various sources on the water quality at the outlet. Mass balances were used to examine net gains and losses, and cross-correlations with rainfall to analyze climatic influence and control factors in the trends of the nutrient flux. The rainfall pattern was significantly cross-correlated with nitrate and phosphorus fluxes from agricultural sources, while fluctuations in the resident population explained the phosphorus flux trend in urban sources. 50% of dissolved inorganic nitrogen was from agricultural sources, while 70% of total phosphate and 91% of total organic carbon were from urban point sources. The net amounts of all the nutrients fell as a result of plant uptake and/or denitrification in the channel. The control of urban point sources (phosphorus-enriched) is suggested as a promptly action for improving the health of the coastal lagoon.

Economic crises in England, 1270-1520: a statistical approach

The chapter examines how far medieval economic crises can be identified by analysing the residuals from a simultaneous equation model of the medieval English economy. High inflation, falls in gross domestic product and large intermittent changes in wage rates are all considered as potential indicators of crisis. Potential causal factors include bad harvests, wars and political instability. The chapter suggests that crises arose when a combination of different problems overwhelmed the capacity of government to address them. It may therefore be a mistake to look for a single cause of any crisis. The coincidence of separate problems is a more plausible explanation of many crises.

CAP reform, 2005-14, and the muted role of the dis-United Kingdom

In 2003 the CAP underwent a significant reform. Despite a seemingly endless turmoil of CAP reform, in 2005 the British government pressed for a new reform debate, and in the European Council meeting of December 2005 secured a commitment for the Commission “to undertake a full, wide ranging review covering all aspects of EU spending, including the CAP, ...” But but the initiative petered out, and the CAP ‘reform’ package proposed by the Commission, and then adopted by the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers in 2013, fell well short of the UK’s initial ambition. The chapter attempts to explore the reasons leading to the UK’s failed policy initiative.

English history teachers’ views on what substantive content young people should be taught

Public and policy discourse about the content of history curricula is frequently contested, but the voice of history teachers is often absent from such debate. Drawing on a large scale on-line survey of history teachers in England, this paper explores their responses to major curriculum reforms proposed by the Coalition government in February 2013. In particular it examines teachers' responses to government plans to prescribe a list of topics, events and individuals to be taught chronologically that all students would be expected to study. Nearly 550 teachers responded to the survey, and more than two-thirds of them provided additional written comments on the curriculum proposals. This paper examines these comments, with reference to a range of curriculum models. The study reveals a deep antagonism towards the proposals for various reasons, including concerns about the extent and nature of the substantive content proposed and the way in which it should be sequenced. Analysis of these reactions provides an illuminating insight into history teachers’ perspectives. While the rationales that underpin their thinking seem to have connections to a variety of different theoretical models, the analysis suggests that more attention could usefully be devoted to the idea of developing frameworks of reference.

A reappraisal of Baskerville's Greek types

Ιn the eighteenth century the printing of Greek texts continued to be central to scholarship and discourse. The typography of Greek texts could be characterised as a continuation of French models from the sixteenth century, with a gradual dilution of the complexity of ligatures and abbreviations, mostly through printers in the Low Countries. In Britain, Greek printing was dominated by the university presses, which reproduced conservatively the continental models – exemplified by Oxford's Fell types, which were Dutch adaptations of earlier French models. Hindsight allows us to identify a meaningful development in the Greek types cut by Alexander Wilson for the Foulis Press in Glasgow, but we can argue that in the middle of the eighteenth century Baskerville was considering Greek printing the typographic environment was ripe for a new style of Greek types. The opportunity to cut the types for a New Testament (in an twin edition that included a generous octavo and a large quarto version) would seem perfect for showcasing Baskerville's capacity for innovation. His Greek type maintained the cursive ductus of earlier models, but abandoned complex ligatures and any hint of scribal flourish. He homogenised the modulation of the letter strokes and the treatment of terminals, and normalised the horizontal alignments of all letters. Although the strokes are in some letters too delicate, the narrow set of the style composes a consistent, uniform texture that is a clean break from contemporaneous models. The argument is made that this is the first Greek typeface that can be described as fully typographic in the context of the technology of the time. It sets a pattern that was to be followed, without acknowledgement, by Richard Porson nearly a century and a half later. The typeface received little praise by typographic historians, and was condemned by Victor Scholderer in his retrospective of Greek typography. A survey of typeface reviews in the surrounding decades establishes that the commentators were mostly reproducing the views of an arbitrary typographic orthodoxy, for which only types with direct references to Renaissance models were acceptable. In these comments we detect a bias against someone considered an arriviste in the scholarly printing establishment, as well as a conservative attitude to typographic innovation.

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.