Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context.

Unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock model and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in three-dimensional space, based on the full standard Skyrme energy density functional complemented with the tensor force, is presented. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O and 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W and 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random-phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

Obsessive Compulsive Treatment Efficacy Trial (OCTET) comparing the clinical and cost effectiveness of self-managed therapies: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: UK National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines for obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) specify recommendations for the treatment and management of OCD using a stepped care approach. Steps three to six of this model recommend treatment options for people with OCD that range from low-intensity guided self-help (GSH) to more intensive psychological and pharmacological interventions. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), including exposure and response prevention, is the recommended psychological treatment. However, whilst there is some preliminary evidence that self-managed therapy packages for OCD can be effective, a more robust evidence base of their clinical and cost effectiveness and acceptability is required. Methods/Design: Our proposed study will test two different self-help treatments for OCD: 1) computerised CBT (cCBT) using OCFighter, an internet-delivered OCD treatment package; and 2) GSH using a book. Both treatments will be accompanied by email or telephone support from a mental health professional. We will evaluate the effectiveness, cost and patient and health professional acceptability of the treatments. Discussion: This study will provide more robust evidence of efficacy, cost effectiveness and acceptability of self-help treatments for OCD. If cCBT and/or GSH prove effective, it will provide additional, more accessible treatment options for people with OCD.

Smug alert! Exploring self-licensing behaviour in a cheating game

We test experimentally a prediction of the ‘moral credit model’, in which committing a virtuous act creates moral credits that can license immoral behavior in a succeeding decision. We use a basic cheating experiment that was either preceded by a virtuous deed or not in a developing country context. We found that people who previously achieved a good deed cheat more. Gender and origin are also significant explicative variables for cheating.

Self-concept clarity, social support, and Compulsive Internet Use: a study of the USA and the UAE

Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) has been mostly studied among adolescents, yet some studies reveal that this can be a problem for the adult population, too. The lack of agreement on diagnostic tools and cut-off points results in markedly different prevalence figures. Building on Charlton’s (2002) distinction between core CIU and positive engagement dimensions, the first objective was to confirm that prevalence figures including the core dimensions of CIU were lower than those including the engagement dimensions as well. Second, building on Davis’s (2001) diathesis-stress model, we tested the role that self-concept clarity (SCC) and social support play in predicting core CIU in US subjects (NUS = 268). Finally, we expected that, because self-concept clarity is mostly linked to well-being in Western countries, the association between this variable and core CIU would be weak in the Eastern culture sample (NUAE = 270). Our findings confirmed that prevalence figures were 20–40% lower when including the core dimensions only, and that SCC is a key predictor of CIU at low levels of social support in the US. We also confirmed that this is not the case in the UAE. Future research opportunities to advance this study were discussed.

The role of industry bodies in changing market practices through self-regulation: commercial property leasing in the UK

The UK government has sought to make changes to commercial property leasing practices. This has been the case since the recession of the 1990s. Industry self-regulation using an industry code of practice has been the vehicle for these changes. However, the code has had little direct success in changing practices. This is despite repeated threats of legislation as a constant backdrop to this initiative. The focus for this research is on the role of the industry bodies in the code initiative. They have been central to self-regulation in commercial leasing. Thus, the aim is to investigate the role of industry bodies in the process of institutional change. The context is industry self-regulation. The specific setting is commercial leasing. The main industry bodies in focus are the British Property Federation and Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. An existing model of institutional change forms the framework for the research. A chronological narrative is constructed from secondary data. This is analysed, identifying the actions of the industry bodies within the conceptual stages of the model. The analysis shows that the industry bodies had not acted as convincing agents of change for commercial leasing. In particular there was a lack of theorisation, a key stage in the process. The industry bodies did not develop a framework necessary to guide their members through the change process. These shortcomings of the industry bodies are likely to have contributed to the failure of the Code. However, the main conclusion is that, if industry self-regulation is led by government, then the state must work with industry bodies to harness their potential as champions and drivers of institutional change. This is particularly important in achieving change in institutionalised environments.

Self-immolative base-mediated conjugate release from triazolylmethylcarbamates

A range of carbamate functionalized 1,4-disubstituted triazoles featuring a base sensitive trigger residue, plus a model aromatic amine reporter group, were prepared via copper(I) catalysed azide–alkyne cycloaddition and evaluated for their self-immolative characteristics. This study revealed a clear structure–reactivity relationship, via Hammett analysis, between the structure of the 1,4-disubstituted triazole and the rate of self-immolative release of the amine reporter group, thus demonstrating that under basic conditions this type of triazole derivative has the potential to be employed in a range of chemical release systems.

Marketing the Damaged Self: The Construction of Identity in Advertisements Directed Towards People with HIV/AIDS

This paper explores the identities projected in advertisements directed towards HIV positive individuals and people with AIDS. Fifty such advertisements were collected from three popular American magazines for gay men over a period of seven months. Analysis of the ads reveals a paradoxical presentation of people with HIV/AIDS, which offers simultaneous conflicting images of hope and fear, power and weakness, innocence and guilt. An interactive sociolinguistic model through which this contradictory discourse might be understood is presented, drawing on Goffman’s insights on stigma management and the presentation of the self in social interaction. Advertisements directed towards people with HIV/AIDS, it is suggested, present a contradictory discourse in which the advertisers are positioned as ‘the wise’, offering to mediate the conflicting identities of the stigmatized. The identity values enacted in this contradictory discourse are further measured against American conceptions of communication and the self as observed by Carbaugh and others. The possible consequences of these positionings on the roles made available to people with HIV/AIDS in the wider social context are discussed.

Self-assembly of telechelic tyrosine end-capped PEO and poly(alanine) polymers in aqueous solution

The self-assembly in aqueous solution of three novel telechelic conjugates comprising a central hydrophilic polymer and short (trimeric or pentameric) tyrosine end-caps has been investigated. Two of the conjugates have a central poly(oxyethylene) (polyethylene oxide, PEO) central block with different molar masses. The other conjugate has a central poly(l-alanine) (PAla) sequence in a purely amino-acid based conjugate. All three conjugates self-assemble into β-sheet based fibrillar structures, although the fibrillar morphology revealed by cryogenic-TEM is distinct for the three polymers—in particular the Tyr5-PEO6k-Tyr5 forms a population of short straight fibrils in contrast to the more diffuse fibril aggregates observed for Tyr5-PEO2k-Tyr5 and Tyr3-PAla-Tyr3. Hydrogel formation was not observed for these samples (in contrast to prior work on related systems) up to quite high concentrations, showing that it is possible to prepare solutions of peptide–polymer-peptide conjugates with hydrophobic end-caps without conformational constraints associated with hydrogelation. The Tyr5-PEO6k-Tyr5 shows significant PEO crystallization upon drying in contrast to the Tyr5-PEO2k-Tyr5 conjugate. Our findings point to the remarkable ability of short hydrophobic peptide end groups to modulate the self-assembly properties of polymers in solution in model peptide-capped “associative polymers”. Retention of fluidity at high conjugate concentration may be valuable in potential future applications of these conjugates as bioresponsive or biocompatible materials, for example exploiting the enzyme-responsiveness of the tyrosine end-groups

An asymmetric sandpile model with height restriction

We analyze by numerical simulations and mean-field approximations an asymmetric version of the stochastic sandpile model with height restriction in one dimension. Each site can have at most two particles. Single particles are inactive and do not move. Two particles occupying the same site are active and may hop to neighboring sites following an asymmetric rule. Jumps to the right or to the left occur with distinct probabilities. In the active state, there will be a net current of particles to the right or to the left. We have found that the critical behavior related to the transition from the active to the absorbing state is distinct from the symmetrical case, making the asymmetry a relevant field.

Self-dual hopfions

We construct static and time-dependent exact soliton solutions with nontrivial Hopf topological charge for a field theory in 3 + 1 dimensions with the target space being the two dimensional sphere S(2). The model considered is a reduction of the so-called extended Skyrme-Faddeev theory by the removal of the quadratic term in derivatives of the fields. The solutions are constructed using an ansatz based on the conformal and target space symmetries. The solutions are said self-dual because they solve first order differential equations which together with some conditions on the coupling constants, imply the second order equations of motion. The solutions belong to a sub-sector of the theory with an infinite number of local conserved currents. The equation for the profile function of the ansatz corresponds to the Bogomolny equation for the sine-Gordon model.

Dynamical self-stabilization of the Mott insulator: Time evolution of the density and entanglement entropy of out-of-equilibrium cold fermion gases

The time evolution of the out-of-equilibrium Mott insulator is investigated numerically through calculations of space-time-resolved density and entropy profiles resulting from the release of a gas of ultracold fermionic atoms from an optical trap. For adiabatic, moderate and sudden switching-off of the trapping potential, the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of the Mott insulator is found to differ profoundly from that of the band insulator and the metallic phase, displaying a self-induced stability that is robust within a wide range of densities, system sizes and interaction strengths. The connection between the entanglement entropy and changes of phase, known for equilibrium situations, is found to extend to the out-of-equilibrium regime. Finally, the relation between the system`s long time behavior and the thermalization limit is analyzed. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2011

Cellular automaton model for molecular traffic jams

We consider the time evolution of an exactly solvable cellular automaton with random initial conditions both in the large-scale hydrodynamic limit and on the microscopic level. This model is a version of the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with sublattice parallel update and thus may serve as a model for studying traffic jams in systems of self-driven particles. We study the emergence of shocks from the microscopic dynamics of the model. In particular, we introduce shock measures whose time evolution we can compute explicitly, both in the thermodynamic limit and for open boundaries where a boundary-induced phase transition driven by the motion of a shock occurs. The motion of the shock, which results from the collective dynamics of the exclusion particles, is a random walk with an internal degree of freedom that determines the jump direction. This type of hopping dynamics is reminiscent of some transport phenomena in biological systems.

Pupils' Interaction with the Exhibits According to the Learning Behaviour Model

Science centres are one of the best opportunities for informal study of natural science. There are many advantages to learn in the science centres compared with the traditional methods: it is possible to motivate and supply visitors with the social experience, to improve people’s understandings and attitudes, thereby bringing on and attaching wider interest towards natural science. In the science centres, pupils show interest, enthusiasm, motivation, self-confidence, sensitiveness and also they are more open and eager to learn. Traditional school-classes however mostly do not favour these capabilities. This research presents the qualitative study in the science centre. Data was gathered from observations and interviews at Science North science centre in Canada. Pupils’ learning behaviours were studied at different exhibits in the science centre. Learning behaviours are classified as follows: labels reading, experimenting with the exhibits, observing others or exhibit, using guide, repeating the activity, positive emotional response, acknowledged relevance, seeking and sharing information. In this research, it became clear that in general pupils do not read labels; in most cases pupils do not use the guides help; pupils prefer exhibits that enable high level of interactivity; pupils display more learning behaviours at exhibits that enable a high level of interactivity.

The Aiyagari model with liquidity shoch

Neste trabalho é desenvolvida uma versão do modelo de Aiyagari (1994) com choque de liquidez. Este modelo tem Huggett (1993) e Aiyagari (1994) como casos particulares, mas esta generalização permite dois ativos distintos na economia, um líquido e outro ilíquido. Usar dois ativos diferentes implica em dois retornos afetando o "market clearing", logo, a estratégia computacional usada por Aiyagari e Hugget não funciona. Consequentemente, a triangulação de Scarf substitui o algoritmo. Este experimento computacional mostra que o retorno em equilíbrio do ativo líquido é menor do que o retorno do ilíquido. Além disso, pessoas pobres carregam relativamente mais o ativo líquido, e essa desigualdade não aparece no modelo de Aiyagari.