Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Bandwidth allocation based on real time calculations using the convolution approach

This paper focuses on one of the methods for bandwidth allocation in an ATM network: the convolution approach. The convolution approach permits an accurate study of the system load in statistical terms by accumulated calculations, since probabilistic results of the bandwidth allocation can be obtained. Nevertheless, the convolution approach has a high cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements. This aspect makes real-time calculations difficult, so many authors do not consider this approach. With the aim of reducing the cost we propose to use the multinomial distribution function: the enhanced convolution approach (ECA). This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements and makes a simple deconvolution process possible. The ECA is used in connection acceptance control, and some results are presented

A molecular platform for the diagnosis of multidrug-resistant and pre-extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis based on single nucleotide polymorphism mutations present in Colombian isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Developing a fast, inexpensive, and specific test that reflects the mutations present in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates according to geographic region is the main challenge for drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) control. The objective of this study was to develop a molecular platform to make a rapid diagnosis of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant TB based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mutations present in therpoB, katG, inhA,ahpC, and gyrA genes from Colombian M. tuberculosis isolates. The amplification and sequencing of each target gene was performed. Capture oligonucleotides, which were tested before being used with isolates to assess the performance, were designed for wild type and mutated codons, and the platform was standardised based on the reverse hybridisation principle. This method was tested on DNA samples extracted from clinical isolates from 160 Colombian patients who were previously phenotypically and genotypically characterised as having susceptible or MDR M. tuberculosis. For our method, the kappa index of the sequencing results was 0,966, 0,825, 0,766, 0,740, and 0,625 forrpoB, katG, inhA,ahpC, and gyrA, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were ranked between 90-100% compared with those of phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Our assay helps to pave the way for implementation locally and for specifically adapted methods that can simultaneously detect drug resistance mutations to first and second-line drugs within a few hours.

Are the health messages in schoolbooks based on scientific evidence? A descriptive study.

BACKGROUND Most textbooks contains messages relating to health. This profuse information requires analysis with regards to the quality of such information. The objective was to identify the scientific evidence on which the health messages in textbooks are based. METHODS The degree of evidence on which such messages are based was identified and the messages were subsequently classified into three categories: Messages with high, medium or low levels of evidence; Messages with an unknown level of evidence; and Messages with no known evidence. RESULTS 844 messages were studied. Of this total, 61% were classified as messages with an unknown level of evidence. Less than 15% fell into the category where the level of evidence was known and less than 6% were classified as possessing high levels of evidence. More than 70% of the messages relating to "Balanced Diets and Malnutrition", "Food Hygiene", "Tobacco", "Sexual behaviour and AIDS" and "Rest and ergonomics" are based on an unknown level of evidence. "Oral health" registered the highest percentage of messages based on a high level of evidence (37.5%), followed by "Pregnancy and newly born infants" (35%). Of the total, 24.6% are not based on any known evidence. Two of the messages appeared to contravene known evidence. CONCLUSION Many of the messages included in school textbooks are not based on scientific evidence. Standards must be established to facilitate the production of texts that include messages that are based on the best available evidence and which can improve children's health more effectively.

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 differentcompositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression modelsolely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions areapplied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating theunknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephrasinto samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples isproposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets.This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as theirfocus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age ofunknown tephra.Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Grain size analyses in tin-lead glazes based on 2d-sections

A problem in the archaeometric classification of Catalan Renaissance pottery is the fact, thatthe clay supply of the pottery workshops was centrally organized by guilds, and thereforeusually all potters of a single production centre produced chemically similar ceramics.However, analysing the glazes of the ware usually a large number of inclusions in the glaze isfound, which reveal technological differences between single workshops. These inclusionshave been used by the potters in order to opacify the transparent glaze and to achieve a whitebackground for further decoration.In order to distinguish different technological preparation procedures of the single workshops,at a Scanning Electron Microscope the chemical composition of those inclusions as well astheir size in the two-dimensional cut is recorded. Based on the latter, a frequency distributionof the apparent diameters is estimated for each sample and type of inclusion.Following an approach by S.D. Wicksell (1925), it is principally possible to transform thedistributions of the apparent 2D-diameters back to those of the true three-dimensional bodies.The applicability of this approach and its practical problems are examined using differentways of kernel density estimation and Monte-Carlo tests of the methodology. Finally, it istested in how far the obtained frequency distributions can be used to classify the pottery

A Negotiation Style Recommender Based on Computational Ecology in Open Negotiation Environments

The system described herein represents the first example of a recommender system in digital ecosystems where agents negotiate services on behalf of small companies. The small companies compete not only with price or quality, but with a wider service-by-service composition by subcontracting with other companies. The final result of these offerings depends on negotiations at the scale of millions of small companies. This scale requires new platforms for supporting digital business ecosystems, as well as related services like open-id, trust management, monitors and recommenders. This is done in the Open Negotiation Environment (ONE), which is an open-source platform that allows agents, on behalf of small companies, to negotiate and use the ecosystem services, and enables the development of new agent technologies. The methods and tools of cyber engineering are necessary to build up Open Negotiation Environments that are stable, a basic condition for predictable business and reliable business environments. Aiming to build stable digital business ecosystems by means of improved collective intelligence, we introduce a model of negotiation style dynamics from the point of view of computational ecology. This model inspires an ecosystem monitor as well as a novel negotiation style recommender. The ecosystem monitor provides hints to the negotiation style recommender to achieve greater stability of an open negotiation environment in a digital business ecosystem. The greater stability provides the small companies with higher predictability, and therefore better business results. The negotiation style recommender is implemented with a simulated annealing algorithm at a constant temperature, and its impact is shown by applying it to a real case of an open negotiation environment populated by Italian companies

Curriculum sequencing for an e-learning system based on learning styles

This work shows the use of adaptation techniques involved in an e-learning system that considers students' learning styles and students' knowledge states. The mentioned e-learning system is built on a multiagent framework designed to examine opportunities to improve the teaching and to motivate the students to learn what they want in a user-friendly and assisted environment

Plasmodium vivax antigen discovery based on alpha-helical coiled coil protein motif.

Protein α-helical coiled coil structures that elicit antibody responses, which block critical functions of medically important microorganisms, represent a means for vaccine development. By using bioinformatics algorithms, a total of 50 antigens with α-helical coiled coil motifs orthologous to Plasmodium falciparum were identified in the P. vivax genome. The peptides identified in silico were chemically synthesized; circular dichroism studies indicated partial or high α-helical content. Antigenicity was evaluated using human sera samples from malaria-endemic areas of Colombia and Papua New Guinea. Eight of these fragments were selected and used to assess immunogenicity in BALB/c mice. ELISA assays indicated strong reactivity of serum samples from individuals residing in malaria-endemic regions and sera of immunized mice, with the α-helical coiled coil structures. In addition, ex vivo production of IFN-γ by murine mononuclear cells confirmed the immunogenicity of these structures and the presence of T-cell epitopes in the peptide sequences. Moreover, sera of mice immunized with four of the eight antigens recognized native proteins on blood-stage P. vivax parasites, and antigenic cross-reactivity with three of the peptides was observed when reacted with both the P. falciparum orthologous fragments and whole parasites. Results here point to the α-helical coiled coil peptides as possible P. vivax malaria vaccine candidates as were observed for P. falciparum. Fragments selected here warrant further study in humans and non-human primate models to assess their protective efficacy as single components or assembled as hybrid linear epitopes.

Human cooperation based on punishment reputation.

The threat of punishment usually promotes cooperation. However, punishing itself is costly, rare in nonhuman animals, and humans who punish often finish with low payoffs in economic experiments. The evolution of punishment has therefore been unclear. Recent theoretical developments suggest that punishment has evolved in the context of reputation games. We tested this idea in a simple helping game with observers and with punishment and punishment reputation (experimentally controlling for other possible reputational effects). We show that punishers fully compensate their costs as they receive help more often. The more likely defection is punished within a group, the higher the level of within-group cooperation. These beneficial effects perish if the punishment reputation is removed. We conclude that reputation is key to the evolution of punishment.

Predictors of the risk of fibrosis at 10 years after breast conserving therapy for early breast cancer: a study based on the EORTC Trial 22881-10882 'boost versus no boost'.

The EORTC 22881-10882 trial in 5178 conservatively treated early breast cancer patients showed that a 16 Gy boost dose significantly improved local control, but increased the risk of breast fibrosis. To investigate predictors for the long-term risk of fibrosis, Cox regression models of the time to moderate or severe fibrosis were developed on a random set of 1797 patients with and 1827 patients without a boost, and validated in the remaining set. The median follow-up was 10.7 years. The risk of fibrosis significantly increased (P<0.01) with increasing maximum whole breast irradiation (WBI) dose and with concomitant chemotherapy, but was independent of age. In the boost arm, the risk further increased (P<0.01) if patients had post-operative breast oedema or haematoma, but it decreased (P<0.01) if WBI was given with >6 MV photons. The c-index was around 0.62. Nomograms with these factors are proposed to forecast the long-term risk of moderate or severe fibrosis.

Antigenicity and immunogenicity of a novel chimeric peptide antigen based on the P. vivax circumsporozoite protein.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite (PvCS) protein is a major sporozoite surface antigen involved in parasite invasion of hepatocytes and is currently being considered as vaccine candidate. PvCS contains a dimorphic central repetitive fragment flanked by conserved regions that contain functional domains. METHODS: We have developed a chimeric 137-mer synthetic polypeptide (PvCS-NRC) that includes the conserved region I and region II-plus and the two natural repeat variants known as VK210 and VK247. The antigenicity of PvCS-NRC was tested using human sera from PNG and Colombia endemic areas and its immunogenicity was confirmed in mice with different genetic backgrounds, the polypeptide formulated either in Alum or GLA-SE adjuvants was assessed in inbred C3H, CB6F1 and outbred ICR mice, whereas a formulation in Montanide ISA51 was tested in C3H mice. RESULTS: Antigenicity studies indicated that the chimeric peptide is recognized by a high proportion (60-70%) of residents of malaria-endemic areas. Peptides formulated with either GLA-SE or Montanide ISA51 adjuvants induced stronger antibody responses as compared with the Alum formulation. Sera from immunized mice as well as antigen-specific affinity purified human IgG antibodies reacted with sporozoite preparations in immunofluorescence and Western blot assays, and displayed strong in vitro inhibition of sporozoite invasion (ISI) into hepatoma cells. CONCLUSIONS: The polypeptide was recognized at high prevalence when tested against naturally induced human antibodies and was able to induce significant immunogenicity in mice. Additionally, specific antibodies were able to recognize sporozoites and were able to block sporozoite invasion in vitro. Further evaluation of this chimeric protein construct in preclinical phase e.g. in Aotus monkeys in order to assess the humoral and cellular immune responses as well as protective efficacy against parasite challenge of the vaccine candidate must be conducted.

Design of potent inhibitors of human RAD51 recombinase based on BRC motifs of BRCA2 protein: modeling and experimental validation of a chimera peptide.

We have previously shown that a 28-amino acid peptide derived from the BRC4 motif of BRCA2 tumor suppressor inhibits selectively human RAD51 recombinase (HsRad51). With the aim of designing better inhibitors for cancer treatment, we combined an in silico docking approach with in vitro biochemical testing to construct a highly efficient chimera peptide from eight existing human BRC motifs. We built a molecular model of all BRC motifs complexed with HsRad51 based on the crystal structure of the BRC4 motif-HsRad51 complex, computed the interaction energy of each residue in each BRC motif, and selected the best amino acid residue at each binding position. This analysis enabled us to propose four amino acid substitutions in the BRC4 motif. Three of these increased the inhibitory effect in vitro, and this effect was found to be additive. We thus obtained a peptide that is about 10 times more efficient in inhibiting HsRad51-ssDNA complex formation than the original peptide.

A novel method for automated classification of epileptiform activity in the human electroencephalogram-based on independent component analysis.

Diagnosis of several neurological disorders is based on the detection of typical pathological patterns in the electroencephalogram (EEG). This is a time-consuming task requiring significant training and experience. Automatic detection of these EEG patterns would greatly assist in quantitative analysis and interpretation. We present a method, which allows automatic detection of epileptiform events and discrimination of them from eye blinks, and is based on features derived using a novel application of independent component analysis. The algorithm was trained and cross validated using seven EEGs with epileptiform activity. For epileptiform events with compensation for eyeblinks, the sensitivity was 65 +/- 22% at a specificity of 86 +/- 7% (mean +/- SD). With feature extraction by PCA or classification of raw data, specificity reduced to 76 and 74%, respectively, for the same sensitivity. On exactly the same data, the commercially available software Reveal had a maximum sensitivity of 30% and concurrent specificity of 77%. Our algorithm performed well at detecting epileptiform events in this preliminary test and offers a flexible tool that is intended to be generalized to the simultaneous classification of many waveforms in the EEG.

Safety of falciparum malaria diagnostic strategy based on rapid diagnostic tests in returning travellers and migrants: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (RDTs) allow accurate diagnosis and prompt treatment. Validation of their usefulness in travellers with fever was needed. The safety of a strategy to diagnose falciparum malaria based on RDT followed by immediate or delayed microscopy reading at first attendance was evaluated in one referral hospital in Switzerland. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in the outpatient clinic and emergency ward of University Hospital, covering a period of eight years (1999-2007). The study was conducted in the outpatient clinic and emergency ward of University Hospital. All adults suspected of malaria with a diagnostic test performed were included. RDT and microscopy as immediate tests were performed during working hours, and RDT as immediate test and delayed microscopy reading out of laboratory working hours. The main outcome measure was occurrence of specific complications in RDT negative and RDT positive adults. RESULTS: 2,139 patients were recruited. 1987 had both initial RDT and blood smear (BS) result negative. Among those, 2/1987 (0.1%) developed uncomplicated malaria with both RDT and BS positive on day 1 and day 6 respectively. Among the 152 patients initially malaria positive, 137 had both RDT and BS positive, four only BS positive and five only RDT positive (PCR confirmed) (six had only one test performed). None of the four initially RDT negative/BS positive and none of the five initially BS negative/RDT positive developed severe malaria while 6/137 of both RDT and BS positive did so. The use of RDT allowed a reduction of a median of 2.1 hours to get a first malaria test result. CONCLUSIONS: A malaria diagnostic strategy based on RDTs and a delayed BS is safe in non-immune populations, and shortens the time to first malaria test result.