Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and policy makers.

Scientific assessment of the quality of OSIRIS images

Context. OSIRIS, the scientific imaging system onboard the ESA Rosetta spacecraft, has been imaging the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and its dust and gas environment since March 2014. The images serve different scientific goals, from morphology and composition studies of the nucleus surface, to the motion and trajectories of dust grains, the general structure of the dust coma, the morphology and intensity of jets, gas distribution, mass loss, and dust and gas production rates. Aims. We present the calibration of the raw images taken by OSIRIS and address the accuracy that we can expect in our scientific results based on the accuracy of the calibration steps that we have performed. Methods. We describe the pipeline that has been developed to automatically calibrate the OSIRIS images. Through a series of steps, radiometrically calibrated and distortion corrected images are produced and can be used for scientific studies. Calibration campaigns were run on the ground before launch and throughout the years in flight to determine the parameters that are used to calibrate the images and to verify their evolution with time. We describe how these parameters were determined and we address their accuracy. Results. We provide a guideline to the level of trust that can be put into the various studies performed with OSIRIS images, based on the accuracy of the image calibration.

Media Influence on Youth: Scientific Evidence, Policy Considerations, and the History of Media Self-Regulation

This invited commentary reviews the survey research described in "Examining the Relationship between Media use and Aggression, Sexuality, and Body Image" and situates this research within the recent history of entertainment media regulation.

(Table 1) Geochemistry of realatively fresh rocks of ODP Sites 127-794 and 127-797

The flows and sills drilled at Sites 794 and 797 in the Yamato Basin of the Japan Sea are subalkalic, olivine, and/or plagioclase phyric basalts. Compositionally, the rocks can be divided into a depleted, low-K type and an enriched, relatively high-K type. In addition, two contrasting evolution trends are reflected in the rock compositions, which allow four different magmatic suites to be identified. It is suggested that the depleted or enriched nature of these suites represent primary characteristics, while the different evolution trends are related to fractionation processes in crustal magma chambers. A tholeiitic evolution trend, with increasing FeO and TiO2 and decreasing Al2O3, can be modelled by fractional crystallization of 40%-50% plagioclase, olivine, and augite. A mildly calc-alkalic evolution trend, with decreasing FeO, increasing Al2O3, and nearly constant TiO2, can be modelled by 8%-12% olivine fractionation. Mineralogical evidence suggests that these differences may be related to the effect of small amounts of water during crystallization of the calc-alkalic suites. The tholeiitic suites occur in the lower parts of the drill cores, while the calc-alkalic suites occur in the upper parts. This suggests a complex tectonic and magmatic evolution, perhaps reflecting a transition between calc-alkalic magmatism related to subduction zone activity and tholeiitic magmatism related to back-arc spreading. Furthermore, any magmatic model must be able to account for the range in parental magmas from depleted to enriched throughout the tectonic history of the Yamato Basin.

Potassium and argon concentrations and age determination of ODP Site 125-782 and 125-786

K-Ar whole-rock ages have been obtained for 30 samples from Sites 782 and 786, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 125 in the Izu-Bonin (Ogasawara) forearc region. They form a trimodal spread of ages between 9 Ma and 44 Ma and are, with a few exceptions, consistent with the inferred lithostratigraphy. The ages have been interpreted in terms of at least two distinct episodes of magmatic and/or hydrothermal activity. A group of ten samples, including the lava flows, gave an isochron age of 41.3 ± 0.5 Ma (middle-late Eocene). This is thought to represent the age of the principal magmatic development of the volcanic forearc basement, and is comparable to published ages on equivalent rocks from other parts of the forearc basement high (e.g., the Ogasawara Islands). It may be significant that this age is slightly younger than the timing of major plate reorganization in the Western Pacific at about 43 Ma. This was followed by a minor episode of intrusive magmatism at 34.6 ± 0.7 Ma (early Oligocene) which appears to have reset the ages of some of the earlier units. This event probably corresponds to the initiation of rifting of the "proto-arc" to form the Parece Vela Basin. Boninitic samples were erupted during both episodes of magmatism, the earlier being of low-Ca boninite type and the later being of medium- and high-Ca types. It is also possible that a third episode of intrusive magmatism affected the Izu-Bonin forearc region at both Sites 782 and 786 at about 17 Ma. This would be consistent with magmatic activity elsewhere in the region during the Miocene, associated with the end of active spreading in the Parece Vela Basin and the start of arc activity in the West Mariana Ridge.

(Table 1) Organic geochemistry of ODP Hole 134-832B and Site 134-833

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 134 was located in the central part of the New Hebrides Island Arc, in the Southwest Pacific. Here the d'Entrecasteaux Zone of ridges, the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge and South d'Entrecasteaux Chain, is colliding with the arc. The region has a Neogene history of subduction polarity reversal, ridge-arc collision, and back-arc spreading. The reasons for drilling in this region included the following: (1) to determine the differences in the style and time scale of deformation associated with the two ridge-like features (a fairly continuous ridge and an irregularly topographic seamount chain) that are colliding with the central New Hebrides Island Arc; (2) to document the evolution of the magmatic arc in relation to the collision process and possible Neogene reversal of subduction; and (3) to understand the process of dewatering of a small accretionary wedge associated with ridge collision and subduction. Seven sites were occupied during the leg, five (Sites 827-831) were located in the d'Entrecasteaux Zone where collision is active. Three sites (Sites 827, 828, and 829) were located where the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge is colliding, whereas two sites (Sites 830 and 831) were located in the South d'Entrecasteaux Chain collision zone. Sites 828 (on North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge) and 831 (on Bougainville Guyot) were located on the Pacific Plate, whereas all other sites were located on a microplate of the North Fiji Basin. Two sites (Sites 832 and 831) were located in the intra-arc North Aoba Basin. Results of Leg 134 drilling showed that forearc deformation associated with the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge and South d'Entrecasteaux Chain collision is distinct and different. The d'Entrecasteaux Zone is an Eocene subduction/obduction complex with a distinct submerged island arc. Collision and subduction of the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge results in off scraping of ridge material and plating of the forearc with thrust sheets (flakes) as well as distinct forearc uplift. Some offscraped sedimentary rocks and surficial volcanic basement rocks of the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge are being underplated to the New Hebrides Island forearc. In contrast, the South d'Entrecasteaux Chain is a serrated feature resulting in intermittent collision and subduction of seamounts. The collision of the Bougainville Guyot has indented the forearc and appears to be causing shortening through thrust faulting. In addition, we found that the Quaternary relative convergence rate between the New Hebrides Island Arc at the latitude of Espiritu Santo Island is as high as 14 to 16 cm/yr. The northward migration rate of the d'Entrecasteaux Zone was found the be ~2 to 4 cm/yr based on the newly determined Quaternary relative convergence rate. Using these rates we established the timing of initial d'Entrecasteaux Zone collision with the arc at ~3 Ma at the latitude of Epi Island and fixed the impact of the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge upon Espiritu Santo Island at early Pleistocene (between 1.89 and 1.58 Ma). Dewatering is occurring in the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge accretionary wedge, and the wedge is dryer than other previously studied accretionary wedges, such as Barbados. This could be the result of less sediment being subducted at the New Hebrides compared to the Barbados.