Interdisciplinary research for the analysis and risk assesment : the case of the municipality of Uspantan Guatemala

Short description of the proposed presentation * lees than 100 words This paper describes the interdisciplinary work done in Uspantán, Guatemala, a city vulnerable to natural hazards. We investigated local responses to landslides that happened in 2007 and 2010 and had a strong impact on the local community. We show a complete example of a systemic approach that incorporates physical, social and environmental aspects in order to understand risks. The objective of this work is to present the combination of social and geological data (mapping), and describe the methodology used for identification and assessment of risk. The article discusses both the limitations and methodological challenges encountered when conducting interdisciplinary research. Describe why it is important to present this topic at the Global Platform in less than 50 words This work shows the benefits of addressing risk in an interdisciplinary perspective, in particular how integrating social sciences can help identify new phenomena and natural hazards and assess risk. It gives a practical example of how one can integrate data from different fields. What is innovative about this presentation? * The use of mapping to combine qualitative and quantitative data. By coupling approaches, we could associate a hazard map with qualitative data gathered by interviews with the population. This map is an important document for the authorities. Indeed, it allows them to be aware of the most dangerous zones, the affected families and the places where it is most urgent to intervene.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Pay-as-you-go social security and the distribution of bequests

This paper studies the impact of an unfunded social security system on the distribution of bequests in a framework where savings are due both by life cycle and by random altruistic motivations. We show that the impact of social security on the distribution of bequests depends crucially on the importance of the bequest motive in explaining savings behavior. If the bequest motive is strong, then an increase in the social security tax raises the bequests left by altruistic parents. On the other hand, when the importance of bequests in motivating savings is sufficiently low, theincrease in the social security tax could result in a reduction of the bequests left by altruistic parents under some conditions on the attitude of individuals toward risk and on the relative returns associated with private saving and social security. Some implications concerning the transitional effects of introducing an unfunded social security scheme are also discussed.

Diversity of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae) in three fragments of semideciduous seasonal forest in the northwest of São Paulo State, Brazil

Human exploitation of the forest in the northwest of São Paulo State has generated enormous fragmentation of that forest. Such disturbance has reduced the populations of insects in general. This work was a survey of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae; Polistinae) in three areas in different stages of regeneration: Paulo de Faria - SP (435 ha), Pindorama - SP (128 ha) and Neves Paulista - SP (1 ha). These three areas were chosen for comparative purposes. To capture the wasps, it was used: active collecting with attractant liquid (solution of water, salt and sugar) with the aid of a dorsal spray bag. During the period from July to December 2006, 414 social wasps were collected in Paulo de Faria, constituting seven species belonging to four genera; 111 social wasps were collected in Pindorama, constituting six species belonging to four genera, and 129 social wasps were collected in Neves Paulista constituting 12 species belonging to seven genera. In order to compare these three areas ecological indexes were calculated. Neves Paulista had the greatest diversity, and Paulo de Faria presented greater abundance. These factors were probably caused by neighboring areas and ecological corridors, which were limited in Paulo de Faria and Pindorama.

Wh-constructions in cape verdean creole: extensions of the copy theory of movement

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Breeding system and genetic variance in the monogamous, semi-social shrew, Crocidura russula

The population-genetic consequences of monogamy and male philopatry (a rare breeding system in mammals) were investigated using microsatellite markers in the semisocial and anthropophilic shrew Crocidura russula. A hierarchical sampling design over a 16-km geographical transect revealed a large genetic diversity (h = 0.813) with significant differentiation among subpopulations (F-ST = 5-6%), which suggests an exchange of 4.4 migrants per generation. Demic effective-size estimates were very high, due both to this limited gene inflow and to the inner structure of subpopulations. These were made of 13-20 smaller units (breeding groups), comprising an estimate of four breeding pairs each. Members of the same breeding groups displayed significant coancestries (F-LS = 9-10%), which was essentially due to strong male kinship: syntopic males were on average related at the half-sib level. Female dispersal among breeding groups was not complete (similar to 39%), and insufficient to prevent inbreeding. From our results, the breeding strategy of C. russula seems less efficient than classical mammalian systems (polygyny and male dispersal) in disentangling coancestry from inbreeding, but more so in retaining genetic variance.

Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

Abnormal Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure in the Elderly: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of subclinical abnormal spirometric findings on HF risk among older adults without history of COPD is not well elucidated. Methods: We evaluated 2125 participants (age 73.6±2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 45.6/9.4% past/current smokers; body mass index [BMI] 27.2±4.6 kg/m2) without prevalent COPD or HF who underwent baseline spirometry in the Health ABC Study. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) below lower limit of normal (LLN) or forced expiratory volume in 1st sec (FEV1) to FVC ratio below LLN. Results: On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal lung function developed HF, as compared to 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74 -3.06; P<.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for all other independent predictors of HF in the Health ABC Study, BMI, incident coronary events, and several inflammatory markers (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 -2.54; P<.001), and remained constant over time. Baseline FVC and FEV1 had a linear association with HF risk (Figure). In adjusted models, HF risk increased by 21% (95% CI, 10 -36%) per 10% decrease in FVC and 18% (95% CI, 10 -28%) per 10% decrease in FEV1 (both P<.001); this association persisted among participants with normal lung function at baseline. Findings were consistent across sex, race, and smoking status. Conclusions: Subclinical abnormal spirometric findings are prevalent among older adults and are independently associated with risk for incident HF.

(Young Investigator Award) Trabecular Bone Score Helps Classifying Women At Risk Of Fracture Prospectively In The Ofely Study

Introduction: To determine the metabolic effect of teriparatide (TPTD) on bone, 99mTc-MDP skeletal plasma clearance was measured in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with TPTD 20 μg/day. Methods: Ten postmenopausal women with osteoporosis had radionuclide bone scans at baseline, 3, and 18 months after starting TPTD 20 μg/day and after 6 months off therapy. Participants were injected with 600 MBq 99mTc- MDP and whole body bone scans acquired at 10 min, 1, 2, 3, and 4 h. Multiple blood samples were taken between 5 min and 4 h and free 99mTc-MDP measured using ultrafiltration. 99mTc-MDP plasma clearance (Kbone) was evaluated using the Patlak plot method. Regional differences in Kbone were studied by measuring the whole skeleton and subregions. Serum procollagen type I Nterminal propeptide (PINP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP), and urinary N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) were measured at each visit.Discussion: The median increase from baseline in whole skeleton Kbone was 22% (P=0.004) at 3 months and 34% (P= 0.002) at 18 months, decreasing to 0.7% after 6 months off therapy. In subregions, Kbone value increases were statistically significant at 3 months and in all subregions except the pelvis at 18 months. After 6 months off therapy, subregional Kbone values also returned toward baseline. Bone markers increases from baseline were statistically significant at 3 and 18 months (BSAP, 15% and 36%; PINP, 137% and 192%; NTX, 109% and 125%). After 6 months off therapy, PINP and NTX values had declined, though remained above baseline (BSAP, −3%; PINP, 43%; NTX, 56%). Increased Kbone values in the whole body and lower extremities were correlated with increases in most bone markers at 3 and 18 months. Increased skeletal uptake of 99mTc-MDP during treatment with TPTD is indicative of increased bone formation and is supported by increases in bone turnover markers.Conclusion: Changes in Kbone and skeletal uptake measured by radionuclide bone scans in patients taking TPTD are the result of metabolic activity of the drug. These data may provide physicians with useful insights when interpreting bone scan results in this population.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Social value orientation as a moral intuition: Decision-making in the dictator game

We studied the decision making process in the Dictator Game and showed that decisions are the result of a two-step process. In a first step, decision makers generate an automatic, intuitive proposal. Given sufficient motivation and cognitive resources, they adjust this in a second, more deliberated phase. In line with the social intuitionist model, we show that one s Social Value Orientation determines intuitive choice tendencies in the first step, and that this effect is mediated by the dictator s perceived interpersonal closeness with the receiver. Self-interested concerns subsequently leadto a reduction of donation size in step 2. Finally, we show that increasing interpersonal closeness can promote pro-social decision-making.

Social wasps of two Cerrado localities in the northeast of Maranhão state, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Social wasps of two Cerrado localities in the northeast of Maranhão state, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae). Results are presented of a survey of social wasps from two savanna localities 30 km apart from each other in the northeastern part of the Brazilian state of Maranhão, Brazil: village of Bom Jesus (municipality of Urbano Santos) and village of Tabocas (municipality of Barreirinhas). Two hundred and twenty-seven nests of 31 species of 13 genera were found and mapped. Polybia rejecta was the species with the largest average density of colonies/ha in both areas. The similarity (Jaccard's index) between the Tabocas and Bom Jesus faunas was 41.9%. Twenty-seven species of plants were utilized as nesting substrate. In Tabocas, Qualea parviflora Mart. (Vochysiaceae) trees were used as substrate by 30.3% of the wasp colonies. In Bom Jesus, the vast majority of colonies (27.9%) were found in a secondary vegetation type, the so-called carrasco, indicator of vegetation change. The number of social wasp species recorded in this study is similar to others obtained in several areas of Cerrado vegetation in Brazil. Nine species are new to Maranhão, and Mischocyttarus cerberus had its distribution confirmed, increasing to 58 the number of species known to occur in that state.

First report of interspecific facultative social parasitism in the paper wasp genus Mischocyttarus Saussure (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

First report of interspecific facultative social parasitism in the paper wasp genus Mischocyttarus Saussure (Hymenoptera, Vespidae). Parasitism of colonies of the social wasp Mischocyttarus cerberus Ducke, 1918 by females of Mischocyttarus consimilis Zikán, 1949 was observed in a rural area of Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. In all monitored cases, the invasion occurred in the pre-emergence colony stage, generally by a single female of M. consimilis. The period of establishment of the foreign female in the host colony was marked by antagonistic behaviors between the host female and the invasive. In general, the architecture of the parasitized nest was modified from the typical architecture of the host species nest.

Fitness and the level of homozygosity in a social insect.

To date very few studies have addressed the effects of inbreeding in social Hymenoptera, perhaps because the costs of inbreeding are generally considered marginal owing to male haploidy whereby recessive deleterious alleles are strongly exposed to selection in males. Here, we present one of the first studies on the effects of queen and worker homozygosity on colony performance. In a wild population of the ant Formica exsecta, the relative investment of single-queen colonies in sexual production decreased with increased worker homozygosity. This may either stem from increased homozygosity decreasing the likelihood of diploid brood to develop into queens or a lower efficiency of more homozygous workers at feeding larvae and thus a lower proportion of the female brood developing into queens. There was also a significant negative association between colony age and the level of queen but not worker homozygosity. This association may stem from inbreeding affecting queen lifespan and/or their fecundity, and thus colony survival. However, there was no association between queen homozygosity and colony size, suggesting that inbreeding affects colony survival as a result of inbred queens having a shorter lifespan rather than a lower fecundity. Finally, there was no significant association between either worker or queen homozygosity and the probability of successful colony founding, colony size and colony productivity, the three other traits studied. Overall, these results indicate that inbreeding depression may have important effects on colony fitness by affecting both the parental (queen) and offspring (worker)generations cohabiting within an ant colony.