Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Adapting health-risk communication to the specific cultural contexts of diverse populations : an assessment of malaria-treatment programs in Liberia

Drawing on theories of technical communication, rhetoric, literacy, language and culture, and medical anthropology, this dissertation explores how local culture and traditions can be incorporated into health-risk-communication-program design and implementation, including the design and dissemination of health-risk messages. In a modern world with increasing global economic partnerships, mounting health and environmental risks, and cross-cultural collaborations, those who interact with people of different cultures have “a moral obligation to take those cultures seriously, including their social organization and values” (Hahn and Inhorn 10). Paradoxically, at the same time as we must carefully adapt health, safety, and environmental-risk messages to diverse cultures and populations, we must also recognize the increasing extent to which we are all becoming part of one, vast, interrelated global village. This, too, has a significant impact on the ways in which healthcare plans should be designed, communicated, and implemented. Because communicating across diverse cultures requires a system for “bridging the gap between individual differences and negotiating individual realities” (Kim and Gudykunst 50), both administrators and beneficiaries of malaria-treatment-and-control programs (MTCPs) in Liberia were targeted to participate in this study. A total of 105 people participated in this study: 21 MTCP administrators (including designers and implementers) completed survey questionnaires on program design, implementation, and outcomes; and 84 MTCP beneficiaries (e.g., traditional leaders and young adults) were interviewed about their knowledge of malaria and methods for communicating health risks in their tribe or culture. All participants showed a tremendous sense of courage, commitment, resilience, and pragmatism, especially in light of the fact that many of them live and work under dire socioeconomic conditions (e.g., no electricity and poor communication networks). Although many MTCP beneficiaries interviewed for this study had bed nets in their homes, a majority (46.34 percent) used a combination of traditional herbal medicine and Western medicine to treat malaria. MTCP administrators who participated in this study rated the impacts of their programs on reducing malaria in Liberia as moderately successful (61.90 percent) or greatly successful (38.10 percent), and they offered a variety of insights on what they might do differently in the future to incorporate local culture and traditions into program design and implementation. Participating MTCP administrators and beneficiaries differed in their understanding of what “cultural incorporation” meant, but they agreed that using local indigenous languages to communicate health-risk messages was essential for effective health-risk communication. They also suggested that understanding the literacy practices and linguistic cultures of the local people is essential to communicating health risks across diverse cultures and populations.

The role of lymphadenectomy in high risk prostate cancer

Historically, patients with high risk prostate cancer were considered poor candidates for radical prostatectomy (RP) due to the likelihood of positive pelvic lymph nodes and decreased long term survival. Although there is still no consensus on the optimal therapy for this group of patients, there is increasing evidence that surgery could play a role. Cancer specific survival (CSS) rates after RP for locally advanced disease at 10 year follow up range from 29 to 72%, depending on tumor differentiation. The role of pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) in prostate cancer remains a controversial topic. Nonetheless, in conjunction with RRP extended PLND (ePLND) should be performed as extended lymph node dissection in lieu of standard PLND may increase staging accuracy, influence decision making with respect to adjuvant therapy and possibly impact outcome. High risk patients with organ confined prostate cancer and low volume (micro)metastatic disease may be the ones to profit most from this approach.

Body contouring surgery following bariatric surgery and dietetically induced massive weight reduction: a risk analysis

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed the impact of weight reduction method, preoperative, and intraoperative variables on the outcome of reconstructive body contouring surgery following massive weight reduction. METHODS: All patients presenting with a maximal BMI >/=35 kg/m(2) before weight reduction who underwent body contouring surgery of the trunk following massive weight loss (excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) >/= 30%) between January 2002 and June 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Incomplete records or follow-up led to exclusion. Statistical analysis focused on weight reduction method and pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors. The outcome was compared to current literature results. RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were included (87 female and 17 male; mean age 47.9 years). Massive weight reduction was achieved through bariatric surgery in 62 patients (59.6%) and dietetically in 42 patients (40.4%). Dietetically achieved excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) was 94.20% and in this cohort higher than surgically induced reduction EBMIL 80.80% (p < 0.01). Bariatric surgery did not present increased risks for complications for the secondary body contouring procedures. The observed complications (26.9%) were analyzed for risk factors. Total tissue resection weight was a significant risk factor (p < 0.05). Preoperative BMI had an impact on infections (p < 0.05). No impact on the postoperative outcome was detected in EBMIL, maximal BMI, smoking, hemoglobin, blood loss, body contouring technique or operation time. Corrective procedures were performed in 11 patients (10.6%). The results were compared to recent data. CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery does not increase risks for complications in subsequent body contouring procedures when compared to massive dietetic weight reduction.

Secondary intraocular lenses in eyes with aphakia or dislocated IOL: impact of suture fixation on early and late complications

BACKGROUND: Secondary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation is exposed to an increased risk of complications, including endophthalmitis and retinal detachment. The present analysis compares the outcomes and complications experienced in our own series of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed a consecutive series of secondary posterior chamber IOL implantations performed in a single centre, two surgeon setting over a period of 8 years and with a follow up-time of at least 4 months. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2005, 75 patients received a sulcus-supported secondary IOL without suture fixation, whereas suture fixation was required in 137 instances. Visual acuity improved in both groups (group 1: from 0.36 +/- 0.39 (0.01-1.2) to 0.73 +/- 0.33 (0.02-1.0; p = 0.18); group 2: from 0.33 +/- 0.34 (0.02-1.0) to 0.46 +/- 0.33 (0.01-1.0; p = 0.006), but more pronounced in eyes not requiring suture fixation (p = 0.012). IOL placement was more likely to be combined with endophacoemulsification in the not suture-fixed IOLs (12.7 vs. 5.3 %). In contrast, retinal tears (10.6 vs. 8.6 %, respectively) and retinal detachment (5.3 vs. 2.2 %, respectively) were equally distributed. In the early postoperative phase, IOP was lower in suture-fixed eyes, which showed a higher incidence of minor intraocular haemorrhages and cystoid macular edema (5.3 vs. 8.0 %); late complications up to 5 years postoperatively were equally distributed. CONCLUSION: A preoperatively less complicated anterior segment situation and a lower incidence of postoperative macular edema may account for a better visual outcome after placement of a sulcus supported IOLs without suturing. If required, suture fixation may be performed without exposing the eye to an increased risk of late postoperative complications.

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair: impact of urgency on outcome and quality of life

OBJECTIVES: Endovascular repair of the descending thoracic aorta is a very promising technique in elective and, particularly, emergency situations. This study assessed the impact of urgency of the procedure on outcome and mid-term quality of life in surviving patients. METHODS: Post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data of 58 consecutive patients (January 2001-December 2005) with surgical pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta treated by endovascular means. Six patients were excluded due to recent operations on the ascending aorta before thoracic endovascular repair. The remaining patients (n=52) were 69+/-10 years old, and 43 were men (83%). Twenty-seven had been treated electively, and 25 for emergency indications. Reasons for emergency were acute type B aortic dissections with or without malperfusion syndrome in 14, and aortic ruptures in 11 cases. Follow-up was 29+/-16 months. Endpoints were perioperative and late morbidity and mortality rates and long-term quality of life as assessed by the short form health survey (SF-36) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaires. RESULTS: Cohorts were comparable regarding age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and comorbidities. Perioperative mortality was somewhat higher in emergency cases (12% vs 4%, p=0.34). Paraplegia occurred in one patient in each cohort (4%). Overall quality of life after two and a half years was similar in both treatment cohorts: 72 (58-124) after emergency, and 85 (61-105) after elective endovascular aortic repair (p=0.98). Normal scores range from 85 to 115. Anxiety and depression scores were in the normal range and comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair is an excellent and safe treatment option for the diseased descending aorta, particularly in emergency situations. Early morbidity and mortality rates can be kept very low. Mid-term quality of life was not affected by the urgency of the procedure. Similarly, mid-term anxiety and depression scores were not increased after emergency situations.

Risk of acute kidney injury in patients with severe aortic valve stenosis undergoing transcatheter valve replacement

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for high-risk and inoperable patients with severe aortic stenosis is an emerging procedure in cardiovascular medicine. Little is known of the impact of TAVI on renal function. METHODS: We analysed retrospectively renal baseline characteristics and outcome in 58 patients including 2 patients on chronic haemodialysis undergoing TAVI at our institution. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was defined according to the RIFLE classification. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis not considered suitable for conventional surgical valve replacement with a mean age of 83 +/- 5 years underwent TAVI. Two patients died during transfemoral valve implantation and two patients in the first month after TAVI resulting in a 30-day mortality of 6.9%. Vascular access was transfemoral in 46 patients and transapical in 12. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased in 30 patients (56%). Fifteen patients (28%) developed AKI, of which four patients had to be dialyzed temporarily and one remained on chronic renal replacement therapy. Risk factors for AKI comprised, among others, transapical access, number of blood transfusions, postinterventional thrombocytopaenia and severe inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). CONCLUSIONS: TAVI is feasible in patients with a high burden of comorbidities and in patients with pre-existing end-stage renal disease who would be otherwise not considered as candidates for conventional aortic valve replacement. Although GFR improved in more than half of the patients, this benefit was associated with a risk of postinterventional AKI. Future investigations should define preventive measures of peri-procedural kidney injury.

Impact of intraoperative behavior on surgical site infections

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify intraoperative risk factors for surgical site infections (SSIs), which are accessible to interventions. We evaluated the effect of extensive intraoperative antiseptic measures and the impact of the behavior of members of the surgical team on SSIs. METHODS: Standard versus extensive antiseptic measures were randomly assigned in 1,032 surgical patients. The adherence to principles of asepsis by members of the surgical team was assessed prospectively. RESULTS: The rate of SSI was 14% with standard antiseptic measures and 15% with extensive measures (P = .581). Multivariate analysis identified following independent risk factors: lapses in discipline (odds ratio [OR] 2.02, confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.88), intestinal anastomosis (OR 6.74, CI 3.42-13.30), duration of operation more than 3 hours (OR 3.34, CI 1.82-6.14), and body mass index >30 kg/m2 (OR 1.98, CI 1.22-3.20). CONCLUSION: Extensive measures of antisepsis did not reduce the incidence of SSI. A lapse to adhere to principles of asepsis was identified as an independent risk factor for the development of SSI (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00555815).

Impact of surgical training on incidence of surgical site infection

BACKGROUND: Despite availability of other training forms, tutorial assistance cannot be entirely replaced in surgical education. Concerns exist that tutorial assistance may lead to an increased rate of surgical site infection (SSI). The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether the risk of SSI is higher after surgery with tutorial assistance than after surgery performed autonomously by a fully trained surgeon. METHODS: All consecutive visceral, vascular, and traumatological inpatient procedures at a Swiss University Hospital were prospectively recorded during a 24-month period, and the patients were followed for 12 months to ascertain the occurrence of SSI. Using univariable and multivariable logistic regressions, we assessed the association of tutorial assistance surgery with SSI in 6,103 interventions. RESULTS: Autonomously performed surgery was associated with SSI in univariable analysis (5.36% SSI vs. 3.81% for tutorial assistance, p = 0.006). In multivariable analysis, the odds of SSI for tutorial assistance was no longer significantly lower (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.82; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.62-1.09; p = 0.163). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical training does not lead to higher SSI rate if trainees are adequately supervised and interventions are carefully selected. Although other forms of training are useful, tutorial assistance in the operating room continues to be the mainstay of surgical education.

Postpartum depressive symptoms in the first 17 months after childbirth: the impact of an emotionally supportive partnership

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the impact on different postpartum depressive trajectories (i.e., "non depressive symptoms", "stable depressive symptoms", "deterioration" and "improvement") from 5-17 months after childbirth exerted by emotional support that mothers receive from their partners and emotional support they provide to their partners. METHODS: Postpartum depressive symptoms were assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale 5 and 17 months after delivery in a sample of 293 mothers. Emotional support received from the partners was assessed among both mothers and partners. RESULTS: The initial level and the change in emotional support that mothers received from their partners were related to different trajectories of postpartum depressive symptoms. Mothers who were living in a partnership with low reciprocal emotional support showed a significantly higher risk of suffering from "stable depressive symptoms" than mothers who were living in a partnership with high reciprocal emotional support. CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk of persistent depressive symptoms beyond the early postpartum period was observed in mothers with poor reciprocal emotional support in the partnership. Further research is needed for a better understanding of the mothers persistent depressive symptoms after childbirth associated with reciprocity of emotional support in the partnership.

Association of urethral toxicity with dose exposure in combined high-dose-rate brachytherapy and intensity-modulated radiation therapy in intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION: To report acute and late toxicities in patients with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer treated with combined high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-B) and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: From March 2003 to September 2005, 64 men were treated with a single implant HDR-B with 21 Gy given in three fractions, followed by 50 Gy IMRT along with organ tracking. Median age was 66.1 years, and risk of recurrence was intermediate in 47% of the patients or high in 53% of the patients. Androgen deprivation therapy was received by 69% of the patients. Toxicity was scored according to the CTCAE version 3.0. Median follow-up was 3.1 years. RESULTS: Acute grade 3 genitourinary (GU) toxicity was observed in 7.8% of the patients, and late grades 3 and 4 GU toxicity was observed in 10.9% and 1.6% of the patients. Acute grade 3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity was experienced by 1.6% of the patients, and late grade 3 GI toxicity was absent. The urethral V(120) (urethral volume receiving > or =120% of the prescribed HDR-B dose) was associated with acute (P=.047) and late > or = grade 2 GU toxicities (P=.049). CONCLUSIONS: Late grades 3 and 4GU toxicity occurred in 10.9% and 1.6% of the patients after HDR-B followed by IMRT in association with the irradiated urethral volume. The impact of V(120) on GU toxicity should be validated in further studies.

The impact of lymphadenectomy and lymph node metastasis on the outcomes of radical cystectomy for bladder cancer

CONTEXT: The presence of lymph node metastases and the extent of lymphadenectomy have both been shown to influence the outcome of patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. OBJECTIVE: Current standards for detection of lymph node metastases, lymph-node mapping studies, histopathologic techniques, and risk factors in relation to lymph node involvement are discussed. The impact of lymph node metastases and the extent of lymphadenectomy on the outcome of patients treated with radical cystectomy are analyzed. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A systematic literature review of bladder cancer and lymph nodes was performed searching the electronic databases Pubmed/Medline, Cochrane, and Embase. Articles were selected based on title, abstract, study format, and content by a consensus of all participating authors. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Lymph node status is highly consequential in bladder cancer patients because the presence of lymph node metastases is predictive of poor outcome. Knowledge of primary landing sites of lymph node metastases is important for optimum therapeutic management. Accurate pathologic work-ups of resected lymph node tissue are mandatory. Molecular markers could potentially guide therapeutic decisions in the future because they may enable the detection of micrometastatic disease. In current series, radical cystectomy with an extended lymphadenectomy seems to provide a clinically meaningful therapeutic benefit compared with a limited approach. However, the anatomic boundaries of lymph node dissection are still under debate. Therefore, large prospective multicenter trials are needed to validate the influence of extended lymph node dissection on disease-specific survival. CONCLUSIONS: An extended pelvic lymph node dissection (encompassing the external iliac vessels, the obturator fossa, the lateral and medial aspects of the internal iliac vessels, and at least the distal half of the common iliac vessels together with its bifurcation) can be curative in patients with metastasis or micrometastasis to a few nodes. Therefore, the procedure may be offered to all patients undergoing radical cystectomy for invasive bladder cancer.

Impact of previous virological treatment failures and adherence on the outcome of antiretroviral therapy in 2007

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (<50 copies/ml) in 84.6% vs. 89.1% of the participants, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios of a detectable viral load at visit 2 for participants from the mono/dual era with a history of 2 and 3, 4, >4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure.

Risk scoring for setting priorities in a monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in meat and meat products

Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

Impact of family control/influence on stakeholders' perceptions of benevolence

This article proposes a model explaining how family control/influence in an organization affects individual stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence. The model suggests two effects. First, based on socioemotional wealth research, we propose that family control/influence positively affects stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence through the benevolent behavior that the organization shows toward its stakeholders. However, this effect can be negatively influenced if the family’s socioemotional wealth goals in terms of “Family control and influence” and/or “Renewal of family bonds to the firm through dynastic succession” are at risk. Second, we argue that family control/influence, to the extent that it is perceivable to the stakeholder, influences stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence through categorization processes. However, the impact of perceivable family control/influence on stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence is not straightforward but instead hinges on a set of individual-level contingency factors of the stakeholder, such as stakeholders’ family business in-group membership, stakeholders’ secondhand category information, and stakeholders’ firsthand category information.