Effect of the Tiger Stripes on the water vapor distribution in Enceladus' exosphere

The jet activity emanating from Enceladus' exosphere south pole region observed by Cassini is a subject of intensive study. The in situ and remote sensing observations performed since 2005 triggered an active modeling campaign. Such modeling is essential for better understanding of the measurements performed by individual instruments as well as to link them for a more complete picture of the volatile and ice grain distribution in Enceladus' exosphere. This paper is focused on the investigation of the effect that diffuse gas sources along the Tiger Stripes have on distribution of the water vapor in Enceladus' exosphere using the updated version of our multiplume model. We have found that accounting for the gas production by Tiger Stripes is critical for interpretation of the Cassini data. According to our calculations, sources along the Tiger Stripes (apart from those originally identified by Spitale and Porco (2007)) must contribute about 23–32% to the total plume source rate, which varies in the range of (6.4–29) ×1027 s−1. The effect of the previously unidentified source suggested in the paper is found to be critical for explaining the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph 2007 and 2010 observations in the whole range of the elapsed times.

Associations of obesity and body fat distribution with incident atrial fibrillation in the biracial health aging and body composition cohort of older adults

UNLABELLED Obesity is a well-recognized risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), yet adiposity measures other than body mass index (BMI) have had limited assessment in relation to AF risk. We examined the associations of adiposity measures with AF in a biracial cohort of older adults. Given established racial differences in obesity and AF, we assessed for differences by black and white race in relating adiposity and AF. METHODS We analyzed data from 2,717 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Adiposity measures were BMI, abdominal circumference, subcutaneous and visceral fat area, and total and percent fat mass. We determined the associations between the adiposity measures and 10-year incidence of AF using Cox proportional hazards models and assessed for their racial differences in these estimates. RESULTS In multivariable-adjusted models, 1-SD increases in BMI, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass were associated with a 13% to 16% increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04-1.28; and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.002-1.27). Subcutaneous and visceral fat areas were not significantly associated with incident AF. We did not identify racial differences in the associations between the adiposity measures and AF. CONCLUSION Body mass index, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass are associated with risk of AF for 10years among white and black older adults. Obesity is one of a limited number of modifiable risk factors for AF; future studies are essential to evaluate how obesity reduction can modify the incidence of AF.

Detection efficiency of microchannel plates for e(-) and pi(-) in the momentum range from 17.5 to 345 MeV/c

High-energy e(-) and pi(-) were measured by the multichannel plate (MCP) detector at the PiM1 beam line of the High Intensity Proton Accelerator Facilities located at the Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland. The measurements provide the absolute detection efficiencies for these particles: 5.8% +/- 0.5% for electrons in the beam momenta range 17.5-300 MeV/c and 6.0% +/- 1.3% for pions in the beam momenta range 172-345 MeV/c. The pulse height distribution determined from the measurements is close to an exponential function with negative exponent, indicating that the particles penetrated the MCP material before producing the signal somewhere inside the channel. Low charge extraction and nominal gains of the MCP detector observed in this study are consistent with the proposed mechanism of the signal formation by penetrating radiation. A very similar MCP ion detector will be used in the Neutral Ion Mass (NIM) spectrometer designed for the JUICE mission of European Space Agency (ESA) to the Jupiter system, to perform measurements of the chemical composition of the Galilean moon exospheres. The detection efficiency for penetrating radiation determined in the present studies is important for the optimisation of the radiation shielding of the NIM detector against the high-rate and high-energy electrons trapped in Jupiter's magnetic field. Furthermore, the current studies indicate that MCP detectors can be useful to measure high-energy particle beams at high temporal resolution. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Analysis of recurrent failure times: A time-dependent Yule process approach

Analysis of recurrent events has been widely discussed in medical, health services, insurance, and engineering areas in recent years. This research proposes to use a nonhomogeneous Yule process with the proportional intensity assumption to model the hazard function on recurrent events data and the associated risk factors. This method assumes that repeated events occur for each individual, with given covariates, according to a nonhomogeneous Yule process with intensity function λx(t) = λ 0(t) · exp( x′β). One of the advantages of using a non-homogeneous Yule process for recurrent events is that it assumes that the recurrent rate is proportional to the number of events that occur up to time t. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates of the parameters in the model, and a generalized scoring iterative procedure is applied in numerical computation. ^ Model comparisons between the proposed method and other existing recurrent models are addressed by simulation. One example concerning recurrent myocardial infarction events compared between two distinct populations, Mexican-American and Non-Hispanic Whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project is examined. ^

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Changing epidemiology of trauma deaths leads to a bimodal distribution

Introduction. Injury mortality was classically described with a tri-modal distribution, with immediate deaths at the scene, early deaths due to hemorrhage, and late deaths from organ failure. We hypothesized that trauma systems development have improved pre-hospital care, early resuscitation, and critical care, and altered this pattern. ^ Methods. This is a population-based study of all trauma deaths in an urban county with a mature trauma system (n=678, median age 33 years, 81% male, 43% gunshot, 20% motor vehicle crashes). Deaths were classified as immediate (scene), early (in hospital, ≤ 4 hours from injury), or late (>4 hours post injury). Multinomial regression was used to identify independent predictors of immediate and early vs. late deaths, adjusted for age, gender, race, intention, mechanism, toxicology and cause of death. ^ Results. There were 416 (61%) immediate, 199 (29%) early, and 63 (10%) late deaths. Immediate deaths remained unchanged and early deaths occurred much earlier (median 52 minutes vs. 120). However, unlike the classic trimodal distribution, there was no late peak. Intentional injuries, alcohol intoxication, asphyxia, and injuries to the head and chest were independent predictors of immediate deaths. Alcohol intoxication and injuries to the chest were predictors of early deaths, while pelvic fractures and blunt assaults were associated with late deaths. ^ Conclusion. Trauma deaths now have a bimodal distribution. Elimination of the late peak likely represents advancements in resuscitation and critical care that have reduced organ failure. Further reductions in mortality will likely come from prevention of intentional injuries, and injuries associated with alcohol intoxication. ^

A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF DRACUNCULUS MEDINENSIS (GUINEA WORM DISEASE) AND SUGGESTED METHODS FOR CONTROL, IBARAPA, NIGERIA, 1982 (AFRICA)

A population-based cross-sectional survey of socio-environmental factors associated with the prevalence of Dracunculus medinensis (guinea worm disease) was conducted in Idere, a rural agricultural community in Ibarapa, Oyo state, Nigeria, during 1982.^ The epidemiologic data were collected by household interview of all 501 households. The environmental data were collected by analysis of water samples collected from all domestic water sources and rainfall records.^ The specific objectives of this research were to: (a) Describe the prevalence of guinea worm disease in Idere during 1982 by age, sex, area of residence, drinking water source, religion and weekly amount of money spent by the household to collect potable drinking water. (b) Compare the characteristics of cases with non-cases of guinea worm in order to identify factors associated with high risk of infection. (c) Investigate domestic water sources for the distribution of Cyclops. (d) Determine the extent of potable water shortage with a view to identifying factors responsible for such shortage in the community. (e) Describe the effects of guinea worm on school attendance during 1980/1982 school years by class and location of school from piped water supply.^ The findings of this research indicate that during 1982, 31.8 percent of Idere's 6,527 residents experienced guinea worm infection, with higher prevalence of infection recorded in males in their most productive years and females in their teenage years. The role of sex and age to risk of higher infection rate was explained in the context of water related exposure and water intake due to dehydration from physical occupational actitives of subgroups.^ Potable water available to residents was considerably below the minimum recommended by WHO for tropical climates, with sixty-eight percent of water needs of the residents coming from unprotected surface water which harbour Cyclops, the obligatory intermediate host of Dracunculus medinensis. An association was found between periods of relative high density of Cyclops in domestic water and rainfall.^ Impact of guinea worm infection on educational activities was considerable and its implications were discussed, including the implications of the research findings in relation to control of guinea worm disease in Ibarapa. ^

Comparison of Tumor Shrinkage and Cumulative Dose Distribution for Lung Cancers

Background: The physical characteristic of protons is that they deliver most of their radiation dose to the target volume and deliver no dose to the normal tissue distal to the tumor. Previously, numerous studies have shown unique advantages of proton therapy over intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) in conforming dose to the tumor and sparing dose to the surrounding normal tissues and the critical structures in many clinical sites. However, proton therapy is known to be more sensitive to treatment uncertainties such as inter- and intra-fractional variations in patient anatomy. To date, no study has clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of proton therapy compared with the conventional IMRT under the consideration of both respiratory motion and tumor shrinkage in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Purpose: This thesis investigated two questions for establishing a clinically relevant comparison of the two different modalities (IMRT and proton therapy). The first question was whether or not there are any differences in tumor shrinkage between patients randomized to IMRT versus passively scattered proton therapy (PSPT). Tumor shrinkage is considered a standard measure of radiation therapy response that has been widely used to gauge a short-term progression of radiation therapy. The second question was whether or not there are any differences between the planned dose and 5D dose under the influence of inter- and intra-fractional variations in the patient anatomy for both modalities. Methods: A total of 45 patients (25 IMRT patients and 20 PSPT patients) were used to quantify the tumor shrinkage in terms of the change of the primary gross tumor volume (GTVp). All patients were randomized to receive either IMRT or PSPT for NSCLC. Treatment planning goals were identical for both groups. All patients received 5 to 8 weekly repeated 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scans during the course of radiation treatments. The original GTVp contours were propagated to T50 of weekly 4DCT images using deformable image registration and their absolute volumes were measured. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the distribution of tumor shrinkage between the two population groups. In order to investigate the difference between the planned dose and the 5D dose with consideration of both breathing motion and anatomical change, we re-calculated new dose distributions at every phase of the breathing cycle for all available weekly 4DCT data sets which resulted 50 to 80 individual dose calculations for each of the 7 patients presented in this thesis. The newly calculated dose distributions were then deformed and accumulated to T50 of the planning 4DCT for comparison with the planned dose distribution. Results: At the end of the treatment, both IMRT and PSPT groups showed mean tumor volume reductions of 23.6% ( 19.2%) and 20.9% ( 17.0 %) respectively. Moreover, the mean difference in tumor shrinkage between two groups is 3% along with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, [-8%, 14%]. The rate of tumor shrinkage was highly correlated with the initial tumor volume size. For the planning dose and 5D dose comparison study, all 7 patients showed a mean difference of 1 % in terms of target coverage for both IMRT and PSPT treatment plans. Conclusions: The results of the tumor shrinkage investigation showed no statistically significant difference in tumor shrinkage between the IMRT and PSPT patients, and the tumor shrinkage between the two modalities is similar based on the 95% confidence interval. From the pilot study of comparing the planned dose with the 5D dose, we found the difference to be only 1%. Overall impression of the two modalities in terms of treatment response as measured by the tumor shrinkage and 5D dose under the influence of anatomical change that were designed under the same protocol (i.e. randomized trial) showed similar result.

Mineralogy and nannoplankton distribution in ODP Hole 194-1195A

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

Recent distribution and accumulation of organic carbon on the continental margin west off Spitsbergen

The study compiles the controlling factors for organic matter sedimentation patterns from a suite of organogeochemical parameters in surface sediments off Spitsbergen and direct seabed observations using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV). In addition we assess its storage rates as well as the potential of carbon sinks on the northwestern margin of the Barents Sea with short sediment cores from a selected fjord environment (Storfjord). While sedimentation in the fjords is mainly controlled by river/meltwater discharge and coastal erosion by sea ice/glaciers resulting in high supply of terrigenous organic matter, Atlantic water inflow, and thus enhanced marine organic matter supply, characterizes the environment on the outer shelf and slope. Local deviations from this pattern, particularly on the shelf, are due to erosion and out washing of fine-grained material by bottom currents. Spots dominated by marine productivity close to the island have been found at the outer Isfjord and west off Prins Karls Forland as well as off the Kongsfjord/Krossfjord area and probably reflect local upwelling of nutrient-rich Atlantic water-derived water masses. Accumulation rates of marine organic carbon as well as reconstructed primary productivities decreased since the middle of the last century. Negative correlation of the Isfjord temperature record with reconstructed productivities in the Storfjord could be explained by a reduced annual duration of the marginal ice zone in the area due to global warming. Extremely high accumulation rates of marine organic carbon between 5.4 and 17.2 g/m**2/yr mark the Storfjord area, and probably high-latitude fjord environments in general, as a sink for carbon dioxide.

Stable isotope record and lithic fragments distribution in sediments of MIS9-14 of the North Atlantic

Stable isotope and ice-rafted debris records from three core sites in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (IODP Site U1313, MD01-2446, MD03-2699) are combined with records of ODP Sites 1056/1058 and 980 to reconstruct hydrographic conditions during the middle Pleistocene spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9-14 (300-540 ka). Core MD03-2699 is the first high-resolution mid-Brunhes record from the North Atlantic's eastern boundary upwelling system covering the complete MIS 11c interval and MIS 13. The array of sites reflect western and eastern basin boundary current as well as north to south transect sampling of subpolar and transitional water masses and allow the reconstruction of transport pathways in the upper limb of the North Atlantic's circulation. Hydrographic conditions in the surface and deep ocean during peak interglacial MIS 9 and 11 were similar among all the sites with relative stable conditions and confirm prolonged warmth during MIS 11c also for the mid-latitudes. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions further reveal that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic MIS 11c is associated with two plateaus, the younger one of which is slightly warmer. Enhanced subsurface northward heat transport in the eastern boundary current system, especially during early MIS 11c, is denoted by the presence of tropical planktic foraminifer species and raises the question how strongly it impacted the Portuguese upwelling system. Deep water ventilation at the onset of MIS 11c significantly preceded surface water ventilation. Although MIS 13 was generally colder and more variable than the younger interglacials the surface water circulation scheme was the same. The greatest differences between the sites existed during the glacial inceptions and glacials. Then a north - south trending hydrographic front separated the nearshore and offshore waters off Portugal. While offshore waters originated from the North Atlantic Current as indicated by the similarities between the records of IODP Site U1313, ODP Site 980 and MD01-2446, nearshore waters as recorded in core MD03-2699 derived from the Azores Current and thus the subtropical gyre. Except for MIS 12, Azores Current influence seems to be related to eastern boundary system dynamics and not to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Distribution of organic carbon in surface sediments covered during SONNE cruise SO184

Sediments were sampled and oxygen profiles of the water column were determined in the Indian Ocean off west and south Indonesia in order to obtain information on the production, transformation, and accumulation of organic matter (OM). The stable carbon isotope composition (d13Corg) in combination with C/N ratios depicts the almost exclusively marine origin of sedimentary organic matter in the entire study area. Maximum concentrations of organic carbon (Corg) and nitrogen (N) of 3.0% and 0.31%, respectively, were observed in the northern Mentawai Basin and in the Savu and Lombok basins. Minimum d15N values of 3.7 per mil were measured in the northern Mentawai Basin, whereas they varied around 5.4 per mil at stations outside this region. Minimum bottom water oxygen concentrations of 1.1 mL L**1, corresponding to an oxygen saturation of 16.1%, indicate reduced ventilation of bottom water in the northern Mentawai Basin. This low bottom water oxygen reduces organic matter decomposition, which is demonstrated by the almost unaltered isotopic composition of nitrogen during early diagenesis. Maximum Corg accumulation rates (CARs) were measured in the Lombok (10.4 g C m**-2 yr**-1) and northern Mentawai basins (5.2 g C m**-2 yr**-1). Upwelling-induced high productivity is responsible for the high CAR off East Java, Lombok, and Savu Basins, while a better OM preservation caused by reduced ventilation contributes to the high CAR observed in the northern Mentawai Basin. The interplay between primary production, remineralisation, and organic carbon burial determines the regional heterogeneity. CAR in the Indian Ocean upwelling region off Indonesia is lower than in the Peru and Chile upwellings, but in the same order of magnitude as in the Arabian Sea, the Benguela, and Gulf of California upwellings, and corresponds to 0.1-7.1% of the global ocean carbon burial. This demonstrates the relevance of the Indian Ocean margin off Indonesia for the global OM burial.

Biomarkers, stable carbon isotope record and pollen distribution of the soutwest African continental margin

This is part 2 of a study examining southwest African continental margin sediments from nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) representing two glacial (MIS 2 and 6a) and two interglacial stages (MIS 1 and 5e). Contents, distribution patterns, and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) as indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types were correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in sediments of the same time horizons. Selected single pollen type data reveal details of vegetation changes, but the overall picture is best illustrated by summing pollen known to predominantly derive from C4 plants or C4 plus CAM plants. The C4 plant signals in the biomarkers are recorded in the delta13C data and in the abundances of C31 and C33 n-alkanes, and the C32 n-alkanol. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories for austral summer and winter situations for the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen and their transport pathways to the ocean. This multidisciplinary approach provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in leaf wax lipid and pollen composition, with the Holocene sedimentary data paralleling the current major phytogeographic zonations. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin) get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands dominated by C3 plants. Airborne particulates derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semideserts, and savannah regions are rich in organic matter from C4 plants. As can be expected from the present and glacial positions of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. In the northern part of the transect the relative importance of C4 plant indicators is higher during the glacials than in the interglacials, indicating a northward extension of arid zones favoring grass vegetation. In the south, where grass-rich vegetation merges into semidesert and desert, the difference in C4 plant indicators is small.