967 resultados para ROC curves


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Fire incident in buildings is common in Hong Kong and this could lead to heavy casualties due to its high population density, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is an important research topic. This paper describes a computer tool for determination of capacity of structural safety against various fire scenarios and the well-accepted second-order direct plastic analysis is adopted for simulation of material yielding and buckling. A computer method is developed to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures but the work can be applied to structures made of other materials. These effects of thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating are required to be considered in order to capture the actual behavior of the structure under fire. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions by other researchers. The proposed method allows us to adopt the truly performance-based structural fire analysis and design with significant saving in cost and time.

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Objectives: Concentrations of troponin measured with high sensitivity troponin assays are raised in a number of emergency department (ED) patients; however many are not diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Clinical comparisons between the early use (2 h after presentation) of high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI) assays for the diagnosis of AMI have not been reported. Design and methods: Early (0 h and 2 h) hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI assay results in 1571 ED patients with potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS) without ST elevation on electrocardiograph (ECG) were evaluated. The primary outcome was diagnosis of index MI adjudicated by cardiologists using the local cTnI assay results taken ≥6 h after presentation, ECGs and clinical information. Stored samples were later analysed with hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI assays. Results: The ROC analysis for AMI (204 patients; 13.0%) for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI after 2 h was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94–0.97) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97–0.99) respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, PLR, and NLR of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI for AMI after 2 h were 94.1% (95% CI: 90.0–96.6) and 95.6% (95% CI: 91.8–97.7), 79.0% (95% CI: 76.8–81.1) and 92.5% (95% CI: 90.9–93.7), 4.48 (95% CI: 4.02–5.00) and 12.86 (95% CI: 10.51–15.31), and 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04–0.13) and 0.05 (95% CI:0.03–0.09) respectively. Conclusions: Exclusion of AMI 2 h after presentation in emergency patients with possible ACS can be achieved using hs-cTnT or hs-cTnI assays. Significant differences in specificity of these assays are relevant and if using the hs-cTnT assay, further clinical assessment in a larger proportion of patients would be required.

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Similarity solutions are carried out for flow of power law non-Newtonian fluid film on unsteady stretching surface subjected to constant heat flux. Free convection heat transfer induces thermal boundary layer within a semi-infinite layer of Boussinesq fluid. The nonlinear coupled partial differential equations (PDE) governing the flow and the boundary conditions are converted to a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) using two-parameter groups. This technique reduces the number of independent variables by two, and finally the obtained ordinary differential equations are solved numerically for the temperature and velocity using the shooting method. The thermal and velocity boundary layers are studied by the means of Prandtl number and non-Newtonian power index plotted in curves.

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An investigation of the drying of spherical food particles was performed, using peas as the model material. In the development of a mathematical model for drying curves, moisture diffusion was modelled using Fick’s second law for mass transfer. The resulting partial differential equation was solved using a forward-time central-space finite difference approximation, with the assumption of variable effective diffusivity. In order to test the model, experimental data was collected for the drying of green peas in a fluidised bed at three drying temperatures. Through fitting three equation types for effective diffusivity to the data, it was found that a linear equation form, in which diffusivity increased with decreasing moisture content, was most appropriate. The final model accurately described the drying curves of the three experimental temperatures, with an R2 value greater than 98.6% for all temperatures.

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OBJECTIVES: To compare the classification accuracy of previously published RT3 accelerometer cut-points for youth using energy expenditure, measured via portable indirect calorimetry, as a criterion measure. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cross-validation study. METHODS: 100 children (mean age 11.2±2.8 years, 61% male) completed 12 standardized activities trials (3 sedentary, 5 lifestyle and 4 ambulatory) while wearing an RT3 accelerometer. V˙O2 was measured concurrently using the Oxycon Mobile portable calorimeter. Cut-points by Vanhelst (VH), Rowlands (RW), Chu (CH), Kavouras (KV) and the RT3 manufacturer (RT3M) were used to classify PA intensity as sedentary (SED), light (LPA), moderate (MPA) or vigorous (VPA). Classification accuracy was evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) and weighted Kappa (κ). RESULTS: For moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), VH, KV and RW exhibited excellent accuracy classification (ROC-AUC≥0.90), while the CH and RT3M exhibited good classification accuracy (ROC-AUC>0.80). Classification accuracy for LPA was fair to poor (ROC-AUC<0.76). For SED, VH exhibited excellent classification accuracy (ROC-AUC>0.90), while RW, CH, and RT3M exhibited good classification accuracy (ROC-AUC>0.80). Kappa statistics ranged from 0.67 (VH) to 0.55 (CH). CONCLUSIONS: All cut-points provided acceptable classification accuracy for SED and MVPA, but limited accuracy for LPA. On the basis of classification accuracy over all four levels of intensity, the use of the VH cut-points is recommended.

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Two varieties of grapes, white grape and red grape grown in the Campania region of Italy were selected for the study of drying characteristics, moisture diffusion, quality changes (colour) and shrinkage behaviour. Comparisons were made with treated and untreated grapes under constant drying condition of 50o C in a conventional drying system. This temperature was selected to represent farm drying conditions. Grapes were purchased from a local market from the same supplier to maintain the same size of grapes and same properties. An abrasive physical treatment was used as pretreatment. The drying curves were constructed and drying kinetics was calculated using several commonly available models. It was found that treated samples shows better drying characteristics than untreated samples. The objective of this study is to obtain drying kinetics which can be used to optimize the drying operations in grape drying.

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The purpose of this study was to derive ActiGraph cut-points for sedentary (SED), light-intensity physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in toddlers and evaluate their validity in an independent sample. The predictive validity of established preschool cut-points were also evaluated and compared. Twenty-two toddlers (mean age = 2.1 years ± 0.4 years) wore an ActiGraph accelerometer during a videotaped 20-min play period. Videos were subsequently coded for physical activity (PA) intensity using the modified Children's Activity Rating Scale (CARS). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to determine cut-points. Predictive validity was assessed in an independent sample of 18 toddlers (mean age = 2.3 ± 0.4 years). From the ROC curve analyses, the 15-s count ranges corresponding to SED, LPA, and MVPA were 0–48, 49–418, and >418 counts/15 s, respectively. Classification accuracy was fair for the SED threshold (ROC-AUC = 0.74, 95% confidence interval = 0.71–0.76) and excellent for MVPA threshold (ROC-AUC = 0.90, 95% confidence interval = 0.88–0.92). In the cross-validation sample, the toddler cut-point and established preschool cut-points significantly overestimated time spent in SED and underestimated time in spent in LPA. For MVPA, mean differences between observed and predicted values for the toddler and Pate cut-points were not significantly different from zero. In summary, the ActiGraph accelerometer can provide useful group-level estimates of MVPA in toddlers. The results support the use of the Pate cut-point of 420 counts/15 s for MVPA.

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The absence of comparative validity studies has prevented researchers from reaching consensus regarding the application of intensity-related accelerometer cut points for children and adolescents. PURPOSE This study aimed to evaluate the classification accuracy of five sets of independently developed ActiGraph cut points using energy expenditure, measured by indirect calorimetry, as a criterion reference standard. METHODS A total of 206 participants between the ages of 5 and 15 yr completed 12 standardized activity trials. Trials consisted of sedentary activities (lying down, writing, computer game), lifestyle activities (sweeping, laundry, throw and catch, aerobics, basketball), and ambulatory activities (comfortable walk, brisk walk, brisk treadmill walk, running). During each trial, participants wore an ActiGraph GT1M, and VO 2 was measured breath-by-breath using the Oxycon Mobile portable metabolic system. Physical activity intensity was estimated using five independently developed cut points: Freedson/Trost (FT), Puyau (PU), Treuth (TR), Mattocks (MT), and Evenson (EV). Classification accuracy was evaluated via weighted κ statistics and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC). RESULTS Across all four intensity levels, the EV (κ = 0.68) and FT (κ = 0.66) cut points exhibited significantly better agreement than TR (κ = 0.62), MT (κ = 0.54), and PU (κ = 0.36). The EV and FT cut points exhibited significantly better classification accuracy for moderate-to vigorous-intensity physical activity (ROC-AUC = 0.90) than TR, PU, or MT cut points (ROC-AUC = 0.77-0.85). Only the EV cut points provided acceptable classification accuracy for all four levels of physical activity intensity and performed well among children of all ages. The widely applied sedentary cut point of 100 counts per minute exhibited excellent classification accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.90). CONCLUSIONS On the basis of these findings, we recommend that researchers use the EV ActiGraph cut points to estimate time spent in sedentary, light-, moderate-, and vigorous-intensity activity in children and adolescents. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Sports Medicine.

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Purpose This Study evaluated the predictive validity of three previously published ActiGraph energy expenditure (EE) prediction equations developed for children and adolescents. Methods A total of 45 healthy children and adolescents (mean age: 13.7 +/- 2.6 yr) completed four 5-min activity trials (normal walking. brisk walking, easy running, and fast running) in ail indoor exercise facility. During each trial, participants were all ActiGraph accelerometer oil the right hip. EE was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b(2) portable indirect calorimetry system. Differences and associations between measured and predicted EE were assessed using dependent t-tests and Pearson correlations, respectively. Classification accuracy was assessed using percent agreement, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results None of the equations accurately predicted mean energy expenditure during each of the four activity trials. Each equation, however, accurately predicted mean EE in at least one activity trial. The Puyau equation accurately predicted EE during slow walking. The Trost equation accurately predicted EE during slow running. The Freedson equation accurately predicted EE during fast running. None of the three equations accurately predicted EE during brisk walking. The equations exhibited fair to excellent classification accuracy with respect to activity intensity. with the Trost equation exhibiting the highest classification accuracy and the Puyau equation exhibiting the lowest. Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overground walking and running. The equations maybe, however, for estimating participation in moderate and vigorous activity.

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Large deformation finite element analysis has been carried out to investigate the stress-strain fields ahead of a growing crack for compact tension .a=W D 0:5/ and three-point bend .a=W D 0:1 and 0:5/ specimens under plane stress condition. The crack growth is controlled by the experimental J -integral resistance curves measured by Sun et al. The results indicate that the distributions of opening stress, equivalent stress and equivalent strain ahead of a growing crack are not sensitive to specimen geometry. For both stationary and growing cracks, similar distributions of opening stress and triaxiality can be found along the ligament. During stable crack growth, the crack-tip opening displacement (CTOD) resistance curve and the cohesive fracture energy in the fracture process zone are independent of specimen geometry and may be suitable criteria for characterizing stable crack growth in plane stress.

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Background The purposes of this study were 1) to establish accelerometer count cutoffs to categorize activity intensity of 3 to 5-y old-children and 2) to evaluate the accelerometer as a measure of children’s physical activity in preschool settings. Methods While wearing an ActiGraph accelerometer, 16 preschool children performed five, 3-min structured activities. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses identified count cutoffs for four physical activity intensities. In 9 preschools, 281 children wore an ActiGraph during observations performed by three trained observers (interobserver reli-ability = 0.91 to 0.98). Results Separate count cutoffs for 3, 4, and 5-y olds were established. Sensitivity and specificity for the count cutoffs ranged from 86.7% to 100.0% and 66.7% to 100.0%, respectively. ActiGraph counts/15 s were different among all activities (P < 0.05) except the two sitting activities. Correlations between observed and ActiGraph intensity categorizations at the preschools ranged from 0.46 to 0.70 (P < 0.001). Conclusions The ActiGraph count cutoffs established and validated in this study can be used to objectively categorize the time that preschool-age children spend in different physical activity intensity levels.

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To evaluate the validity of the ActiGraph accelerometer for the measurement of physical activity intensity in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP) using oxygen uptake (VO 2) as the criterion measure. Thirty children and adolescents with CP (mean age 12.6 ± 2.0 years) wore an ActiGraph 7164 and a Cosmed K4b 2 portable indirect calorimeter during four activities; quiet sitting, comfortable paced walking, brisk paced walking and fast paced walking. VO 2 was converted to METs and activity energy expenditure and classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous intensity according to the conventions for children. Mean ActiGraph counts min -1 were classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) intensity using four diVerent sets of cut-points. VO 2 and counts min¡1 increased signiWcantly with increases in walking speed (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that, of the four sets of cut-points evaluated, the Evenson et al. (J Sports Sci 26(14):1557-1565, 2008) cut-points had the highest classiWcation accuracy for sedentary (92%) and MVPA (91%), as well as the second highest classiWcation accuracy for light intensity physical activity (67%). A ROC curve analysis of data from our participants yielded a CP-speciWc cut-point for MVPA that was lower than the Evenson cut-point (2,012 vs. 2,296 counts min¡1), however, the diVerence in classiWcation accuracy was not statistically signiWcant 94% (95% CI = 88.2-97.7%) vs. 91% (95% CI = 83.5-96.5%). In conclusion, among children and adolescents with CP, the ActiGraph is able to diVerentiate between diVerent intensities of walking. The use of the Evenson cut-points will permit the estimation of time spent in MVPA and allows comparisons to be made between activity measured in typically developing adolescents and adolescents with CP. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

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Objective The present study aimed to develop accelerometer cut points to classify physical activities (PA) by intensity in preschoolers and to investigate discrepancies in PA levels when applying various accelerometer cut points. Methods To calibrate the accelerometer, 18 preschoolers (5.8 +/- 0.4 years) performed eleven structured activities and one free play session while wearing a GT1M ActiGraph accelerometer using 15 s epochs. The structured activities were chosen based on the direct observation system Children's Activity Rating Scale (CARS) while the criterion measure of PA intensity during free play was provided using a second-by-second observation protocol (modified CARS). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the accelerometer cut points. To examine the classification differences, accelerometer data of four consecutive days from 114 preschoolers (5.5 +/- 0.3 years) were classified by intensity according to previously published and the newly developed accelerometer cut points. Differences in predicted PA levels were evaluated using repeated measures ANOVA and Chi Square test. Results Cut points were identified at 373 counts/15 s for light (sensitivity: 86%; specificity: 91%; Area under ROC curve: 0.95), 585 counts/15 s for moderate (87%; 82%; 0.91) and 881 counts/15 s for vigorous PA (88%; 91%; 0.94). Further, applying various accelerometer cut points to the same data resulted in statistically and biologically significant differences in PA. Conclusions Accelerometer cut points were developed with good discriminatory power for differentiating between PA levels in preschoolers and the choice of accelerometer cut points can result in large discrepancies.

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Introduction Standing radiographs are the ‘gold standard’ for clinical assessment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), with the Cobb Angle used to measure the severity and progression of the scoliotic curve. Supine imaging modalities can provide valuable 3D information on scoliotic anatomy, however, due to changes in gravitational loading direction, the geometry of the spine alters between the supine and standing position which in turn affects the Cobb Angle measurement. Previous studies have consistently reported a 7-10° [1-3] Cobb Angle increase from supine to standing, however, none have reported the effect of endplate pre-selection and which (if any) curve parameters affect the supine to standing Cobb Angle difference. Methods Female AIS patients with right-sided thoracic major curves were included in the retrospective study. Clinically measured Cobb Angles from existing standing coronal radiographs and fulcrum bending radiographs [4] were compared to existing low-dose supine CT scans taken within 3 months of the reference radiograph. Reformatted coronal CT images were used to measure Cobb Angle variability with and without endplate pre-selection (end-plates selected on the radiographs used on the CT images). Inter and intra-observer measurement variability was assessed. Multi-linear regression was used to investigate whether there was a relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and patient characteristics (SPSS, v.21, IBM, USA). Results Fifty-two patients were included, with mean age of 14.6 (SD 1.8) years; all curves were Lenke Type 1 with mean Cobb Angle on supine CT of 42° (SD 6.4°) and 52° (SD 6.7°) on standing radiographs. The mean fulcrum bending Cobb Angle for the group was 22.6° (SD 7.5°). The 10° increase from supine to standing is consistent with existing literature. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates was found to increase the Cobb Angle difference by a mean 2° (range 0-9°). Multi-linear regression revealed a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change with: fulcrum flexibility (p=0.001), age (p=0.027) and standing Cobb Angle (p<0.001). In patients with high fulcrum flexibility scores, the supine to standing Cobb Angle change was as great as 20°.The 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer and inter-observer measurement variability were 3.1° and 3.6°, respectively. Conclusion There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and fulcrum flexibility. Therefore, this difference can be considered a measure of spinal flexibility. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes only minor changes.

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INTRODUCTION Managing spinal deformities in young children is challenging, particularly early onset scoliosis (EOS). Surgical intervention is often required if EOS has been unresponsive to conservative treatment particularly with rapidly progressive curves. An emerging treatment option for EOS is fusionless scoliosis surgery. Similar to bracing, this surgical option potentially harnesses growth, motion and function of the spine along with correcting spinal deformity. Dual growing rods are one such fusionless treatment, which aims to modulate growth of the vertebrae. The aim of this study was to ascertain the extent to which semiconstrained growing rods (Medtronic, Sofamor, Danek, Memphis, TN) with a telescopic sleeve component, reduce rotational constraint on the spine compared with standard "constrained / rigid" rods and hence potentially provide a more physiological mechanical environment for the growing spine. METHODS Six 40-60kg English Large White porcine spines served as a model for the paediatric human spine. Each spine was dissected into a 7 level thoracolumbar multi-segment unit (MSU), removing all non-ligamentous soft tissues and leaving 3cm of ribs either side. Pure nondestructive axial rotation moments of ±4Nm at a constant rotation rate of 8deg.s-1 were applied to the mounted MSU spines using a biaxial Instron testing machine. Displacement of each vertebral level was captured using a 3D motion tracking system (Optotrak 3020, Northern Digital Inc, Waterloo, ON). Each spine was tested in an un-instrumented state first and then with appropriately sized semi-constrained growing rods and rigid rods in alternating sequence. The rods were secured by multi-axial pedicle screws (Medtronic CD Horizon) at levels 2 and 6 of the construct. The range of motion (ROM), neutral zone (NZ) size and stiffness (Nm.deg-1) were calculated from the Instron load-displacement data and intervertebral ROM was calculated through a MATLAB algorithm from Optotrak data. RESULTS Irrespective of the order of testing, rigid rods significantly reduced the total ROM compared with semi-constrained rods (p<0.05) with in a significantly stiffer spine for both left and right axial rotation (p<0.05). Analysing the intervertebral motion within the instrumented levels 2-6, rigid rods showed reduced ROM compared with semi-constrained growing rods and compared with un-instrumented motion segments. CONCLUSION Semi-constrained growing rods maintain similar stiffness in axial rotation to un-instrumented spines, while dual rigid rods significantly reduce axial rotation. Clinically the effect of semi-constrained growing rods as observed in this study is that they would be expected to allow growth via the telescopic rod components while maintaining the axial flexibility of the spine, which may reduce occurrence of the crankshaft phenomenon.